An Election Year Like No Other: 2016 and its Consequences Ron Elving / NPR NASACT / Indianapolis August 15, 2016
Overview How Did We Get Here? Election Fundamentals of 2016 Partisan Wars (Intra and Inter) What to Expect in November What to Expect in 2017 2
Overture The past 12 months have been a humbling experience for everyone who thought they understood our presidential politics. (Or they should have been.) 3
What Did We Miss? The emergence of certain candidates (Trump, Sanders, Carson, Cruz) and the salience of specific issues (TPP, Mexican wall, hand sizes) was largely unforeseen. 4
What Did We Miss? The degree of economic and political alienation within the electorate... The force of that feeling among millennials and non-college whites 5
How Did We Get Here: Standoff in Washington Current President and Congress lack the motives and mechanisms for the negotiations needed to make government work. 6
How Did We Get Here: Standoff in Washington Recent High points: Senate bipartisan deals in 2013 Permanent doc fix for Medicare reimbursement (April 2015) 7
How Did We Get Here: Standoff in Washington Recent Low Points: Refusal to consider bills from Other Body Resisting Speaker/leadership Refusal to advise/consent on SCOTUS Zika funding 8
114 th Congress: Political Anxiety Members behavior in both parties & both chambers is often driven by electoral insecurity. Greatest fears: being challenged intraparty and being outspent. 9
The Economy & Fiscal Agenda Unemployment at 4.9% Prime rate 3.5% Mortgages < 3.5% Core inflation 2.3% Fed discount rate 1% Fed funds rate 0.5% Gasoline $2.12 10
The Economy & Fiscal Agenda Anemic growth (1.2% latest Q) Labor force participation low Wage growth weak Home ownership down Income inequality high Burden of student debt high 11
The Economy & Fiscal Agenda Federal debt burden at record high Federal deficit growing again Infrastructure deteriorating Tax code overdue for overhaul 12
The Economy & Fiscal Agenda Most in Congress = economic observers more than actors Partisanship / ideology Little sense of shared agenda Agendas for tax reform 13
The Fiscal Agenda Case study of sequestration Segue to government shutdown Attaching causes to must-pass bills Budget process has lost status Villainizing of appropriations process Decline of appropriator power 14
The Fundamentals of 2016: The Pendulum Imperative Time for a Change Whichever party has been in the White House for two terms loses One exception since World War II George H. W. Bush in 1988 15
2016 Election Fundamentals: Demographics Winning white vote = not enough Reagan 1980: 55% of whites = 44 states John McCain 2008: 55% but lost TPV (and lost Electoral College 2-1) Mitt Romney 2012: 59% of whites 16
The Fundamentals of 2016: Demographics Minorities share of popular vote (just 12% in 1980) has been rising 2 points per cycle 50,000 Hispanics in U.S. turn 18 every month (counting citizens only) 17
2016 Election Fundamentals: Demographics In 2016 minority vote may be 30% Obama got 82% of min vote 2012 African Americans >90% Dem Hispanic Americans >80% Dem in polls A shift from past pattern 18
The Fundamentals of 2016: Electoral College Map/Math In the 1980s the GOP was said to have an Electoral College Lock as Republicans won the megastates: California, Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio -- even Illinois and Michigan. 19
The GOP s Electoral Lock: 1988 20
Big Shift in Big States: 2012 21
The Fundamentals of 2016: The Blue Wall Democrats have now won 4 of the 6 most populous states in every election since 1992. Only 1 of the 12 most populous has voted Republican every time in that span. 22
The Fundamentals of 2016: The Blue Wall Counting all the states that went blue every time since 1992 the wall is now 242 electoral votes. Number needed to win: 270 GOP comparable hard base = 102 23
Red and Blue States 2012: by Population 24
Partisan Wars of 2016: Dem Primary Front Sanders challenge from left field Officially Independent Nominally Democratic Socialist Won 23 states, pursued caucus strategy (1,865 delegates = 40%) Noisy convention 25
Partisan Wars of 2016: GOP Primary Front 17 GOP contestants: Two tiers Notable diversity: Carson, Fiorina, Jindal, Rubio & Cruz Walker, Bush, Paul stumble early Trump media momentum Wins 14 of 30 million votes in prims 26
Partisan Wars of 2016: Interparty Contest Pivot to the General Demographics, Electoral College Money differential / Ground game Wild Card: The Debates (First 9/26) October surprises 27
What to Expect in November: WH Battleground States Florida (29) Colorado (9) Ohio (18) Nevada (6) North Carolina (15) Iowa (6) Virginia (13) New Hampshire (4) 28
What to Expect in November: Senate in Play 34 seats on ballot 24 GOP and just 10 Democrats GOP worry: IL / WI / IN / NH / PA Others? OH / NC / MO / AZ / IA Democrats worry: Nevada & Colorado 29
What to Expect in November: Safe House for GOP All 435 seats on ballot Current GOP majority is 247-188 30 net takeaways required for takeover GOP seats at risk 15-30 Dem seats at risk 5-10 30
What to Expect in November: Safe House for GOP Redistricting compounds existing concentration of minority vote in cities enabling GOP to win more House seats even in some states where Democrats get more votes overall. 31
What to Expect in 2017 If sweep for GOP President Trump disposed to sign bills from GOP Congress, appoint GOP judges Empower agenda of 2010/2014 Congressional winners: Obamacare repeal, Planned Parenthood defunding, regulatory rollback, spending cuts 32
What to Expect in 2017 If Clinton wins Likely Democrats take Senate Democrats still minority in House Stalemate of 2011-2015 remain Challenge to negotiation/compromise 33
Review How Did We Get Here? Election Fundamentals of 2016 Partisan Wars (Intra and Inter) What to Expect in November What to Expect in 2017 34