Read, Seen or Heard A Text-Analytic Approach to Campaign Dynamics Gallup, Michigan, Georgetown Working Group: Frank Newport, Lisa Singh, Stuart Soroka, Michael Traugott, Andrew Dugan Slides presented at the Center for Political Studies, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, October 5 2016.
Background There is a good deal of research capturing trends in government/candidate approval, and vote intentions. We are often able to connect these trends to campaign events, and/or shifts in media content. We are rarely able to directly capture the information that voters remember.
Background Whereas most data sources focus on the effects of campaign information, i.e., vote intentions, or the provision of campaign information, i.e., media coverage, we capture the reception of information, i.e., what respondents recall having read, seen or heard about the candidates.
Data The Gallup U.S. Daily* interviews roughly 500 people by per night, and asks what respondents have read, seen or heard about Hillary Clinton / Donald Trump in the past several days. Verbatim responses are recorded by interviewers. * The Gallup U.S. Daily interviews adults aged 18 and older living in all 50 states and the District of Columbia using a dual-frame design, which includes both landline and cellphone numbers. Gallup samples landline and cellphone numbers using random-digit-dial methods.
% Having Read, Seen and Heard Something about Clinton or Trump 100 % Non Empty Responses, 3 day Mean 90 80 70 60 50 RNC convention DNC convention 9-11 First debate 40 ~41,000 interviews July 10 Sept 1 Sept 26 (debate) Rolling 3-day (lagged) averages, unweighted.
Words Distinguishing Read, Seen and Heard about Clinton and Trump untrustworthy facebook department mostly congress deleted done campaigning corruption criminal classified private found questions response saw ella investigation timkaine time jail her trail berniesanders problems play she scandalreleased dishonestsupporters memorial got foundation liar information regarding bengazi servercrook corrupt debate secretary truth interview benghazi issues charges money situationstill billclinton mikepence state well tryingbaby fun putin flood trip wentbuilding border war idiot mouth immigration wants black bornstatement gold made church negative soldier calling build russia speechisis people man flip meeting makingfamilyobama wall racist planremarks visitsaid going tax son like founder rallymind changed president policy wife paidtwitter parents talking illegal changing amendment manager louisiana second doesnt bigot missuniverse african american tedcruz make america paulryan heart women hack veterans military stance change mccain statements business states lost rnc way starwifes take americans arizona economy khan makeamericagreat dnc ads fbi health email media muslim children mexico country stupid detroit get Top 160 words that are most uniquely associated with responses about Clinton or Trump, font size weighted by frequency, based on all responses, July 11-Oct 3, using limited synonym recoding and lemmatization.
Weekly Trends in Read, Seen and Heard Jul 10 16 Jul 17 23 email berniesanders fbi liar scandal email convention liar speech going Jul 24 30 Jul 31 6 Aug 7 13 Aug 14 20 Aug 21 27 convention email speech dnc president email liar conventionspeech campaign email liar tax foundation scandal email foundationliar health going email foundation liarscandalhealth Aug 28 3 Sep 4 10 Sep 11 17 Sep 8 24 Sep 25 1 Oct 2 liar fbi scandal emailfoundation email health liar scandalfbitalking email health debate email liarnewyork email debate email tax liarcampaign liar healthnight issuescampaign liar Top 5 words, font size weighted by frequency, based on all responses, July 11-Oct 3, using limited synonym recoding and lemmatization.
Weekly Trends in Read, Seen and Heard Jul 10 16 mikepence dallas going shooting pick Jul 17 23 convention speech wife national going Jul 24 30 russia email convention speech going Jul 31 6 muslimfamily son paulryan convention Aug 7 13 isis amendment obama second people Aug 14 20 campaign speech isispeoplelouisiana Aug 21 27 Aug 28 3 immigration campaignpeople louisiana trying mexico immigration speech president going Sep 4 10 mexico immigration speechgoing president Sep 11 17 health obama borntalkingspeech Sep 8 24 Sep 25 1 Oct 2 talkingdebatenewyork obamapeople missuniverse womenpeople going taxdebate paid missuniverse returns Top 5 words, font size weighted by frequency, based on all responses, July 11-Oct 3, using limited synonym recoding and lemmatization.
The Changing Tone of Read, Seen or Heard Responses 6 > Trump Advantage > 4 2 Differences in the tone of what respondents report having read, seen or heard about Donald Trump, versus what they report having read, seen or heard about Hillary Clinton. REPUBLICAN RESPONDENTS ONLY 0 Sept 2 Sept 26 (debate) Rolling 3-day (lagged) averages, unweighted. Tone estimated using the Lexicoder Sentiment Dictionary
The Changing Tone of Read, Seen or Heard Responses 6 > Clinton Advantage > 4 2 Differences in the tone of what respondents report having read, seen or heard about Donald Trump, versus what they report having read, seen or heard about Hillary Clinton. DEMOCRATIC RESPONDENTS ONLY 0 Sept 2 Sept 26 (debate) Rolling 3-day (lagged) averages, unweighted. Tone estimated using the Lexicoder Sentiment Dictionary
Motivated Reasoning in Recollections of the First Debate Based on respondents interviewed on Sept 27 and 28, 61% believe that Clinton won, while 27% believe that Trump won.* Within partisan groups: 92% of Democrats believe that Clinton won the debate, and 3% believe that Trump won. 53% of Republicans believe that Trump won the debate, and 28% believe that Clinton won. * Based on Gallup analyses (of the same survey data used here).
Words Distinguishing Democrats and Republicans Read, Seen and Heard about Clinton, Post-Debate Democratic Identifiers Republican Identifiers country education election young really reaction plans bring taxissues living done immunity opinion prison everything states trail carolina strong rally help times talking twitter president children read campaign won night saw presidentialperformance debate positive foundation anything helping poll missuniverse live next sobre debt recent economy responses women newyork ella email liar deleted scandal benghazi problems supporters dishonest year involved criminal specifically going great college prepared better campaigning hear today response good polls gets putting money crook much got fbithatscrooked server negativemedia reading health berniesanders cant information truth unfavorable parents one bad statements saturday article remember Top 100 words that are most uniquely associated with responses about Clinton or Trump, font size weighted by frequency, based on all responses after the first debate, using limited synonym recoding and lemmatization.
Words Distinguishing Republicans and Democrats Read, Seen and Heard about Trump, Post-Debate Republican Identifiers Democratic Identifiers veterans plans election country different situation ago brought much ive michigan great florida campaign economy internet whatever got plan rally read fox idiot using charity issues doesnt makeamericagreat media makespeech debate good returns young pig called presidential women pay america ads trying polls years factpeople performance foundation newyork kind said last better fat gonnagoing jobswell talking wants liar cuba rallies saw talks racist russia taxpaid twitter night weight poor way minorities made remarks many everyone remember disrespect embargo recall results countries right really facebook immigration back little email deal states hasnt lady regarding new contest Top 100 words that are most uniquely associated with responses about Clinton or Trump, font size weighted by frequency, based on all responses after the first debate, using limited synonym recoding and lemmatization.
Summary of Findings (thus far) Republicans read, seen or heard responses have been more systematically positive about Trump than Democrats have been about Clinton. Clinton s read, seen or heard responses were dominated by email until Sept 11. Recalled information about Clinton has been more positive since that time.
Summary of Findings (thus far) A majority of respondents believe that Clinton won the first debate. But there are real differences in what partisans report having read, seen or heard since then. Clinton: Democrats cite her debate performance, Republicans continue to cite news on email and other scandals Trump: Republicans cite his debate performance, while Democrats cite his complex record with women, particularly Alicia Machado.
What About Independents? Amongst Independents, 59% believe that Clinton won the debate and 30% believe that Trump won the debate. > Trump Advantage > 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 Differences in the tone of what respondents report having read, seen or heard about Donald Trump, versus what they report having read, seen or heard about Hillary Clinton. INDEPENDENT RESPONDENTS ONLY Sept 2 Sept 26 (debate) performance negative trying people racist lastgood two morningwomen drink forth girl missuniverse returns think feed money towards weight loss wants complainingmexico flint mrs handledhasnt twitter doesnt debate recallput email much honest tax liar want smart let send fat paid even back like showed anything everyday rather seeing mainly scandal bad children foundation brought kids lost nafta read shared sources television health bengazi four left facebook black around theexperience change live cartoon situation helping government corruption dishonest daughter crooked saw foundations saturday womens life federal support contestant fact called veterans sending para refuses mismo year Top 100 words uniquely associated with Clinton or Trump, amongst Independents only, font size weighted by frequency, based on all responses after the first debate, using limited synonym recoding and lemmatization. Rolling 3-day (lagged) averages, unweighted. Tone estimated using the Lexicoder Sentiment Dictionary