September 2016 NextGen Climate/Project New America Battleground Millennial Survey September Update 1
About this Survey Interviews were conducted online from August 24 th to August 30 th, 2016 among a base sample of 1,652 millennial adults, ages 18 to 34, in the following 11 states that will be critical for the presidential election: Arizona Nevada Pennsylvania Colorado New Hampshire Virginia Florida North Carolina Wisconsin Iowa Ohio This is a tracking poll that follows a benchmark survey, fielded from June 29 th to July 11 th utilizing the same methodology, that was the first major survey this cycle conducted exclusively among millennials in battleground states. 902 of the sur ey s respondents are considered likely voters. Beyond the presidential election, these battleground states are also likely to determine which party controls the U.S. Senate. Senate elections will be taking place this year in of the 11 states surveyed. 2
The Race for President 3
Millennials show some further consolidation behind Clinton, but still plenty of room for improvement Vote for President Overall (4-Way) Clinton Undecided Would t ote for Preside t Stein Johnson Trump MARGIN August 38 9 16 6 11 20 CLINTON +18 July 35 11 19 6 19 CLINTON +16 Vote for President Overall (2-Way) Clinton Undecided Would t ote for Preside t Trump MARGIN August 44 23 23 CLINTON +21 July 40 13 25 23 CLINTON +17 4
Larger gains for Clinton among likely voting millennials Vote for President Among Likely Voters* (4-Way) Clinton Undecided Would t ote for Preside t Stein Johnson Trump MARGIN August 48 6 2 8 13 23 CLINTON +25 July 43 7 3 7 15 24 CLINTON +19 *Already registered to vote and self-report as defi itely or pro a ly tur i g out i No e er Vote for President Among Likely Voters* (2-Way) Clinton Undecided Would t ote for Preside t Trump MARGIN August 56 8 8 28 CLINTON +28 July 51 30 CLINTON +21 5
Sanders supporters are becoming more likely to vote for Clinton as they see greater differences between Clinton and Trump Vote for President (AMONG LIKELY VOTERS WHO VOTE FOR SANDERS ON HYPOTHETICAL GENERAL ELECTION BALLOT) Clinton Undecided Would t ote Stein Johnson Trump August 74 5 2 7 8 3 CLINTON +71 July 65 6 4 5 CLINTON +60 15% of likel oti g ille ials are a ders Holdouts they do t ote for Cli to i a 4- way race, but do vote for Sanders in a hypothetical scenario where Sanders is the Democratic nominee down 5 points from July when 20% of likely voting millennials fit this definition. On the issues most important to you, there is no real difference between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump (AMONG LIKELY VOTERS). August Agree 29 Disagree 71 SANDERS LIKELY VOTERS % agree 25 July 36 64 37 6
More millennials see a difference between Clinton, Trump on issues, with ost gai s goi g to Cli to. But a y still do t see a differe e For each issue, please indicate which of the candidates below best represents your views on it. (AMONG MILLENNIAL LIKELY VOTERS) Change from July Ensuring women have access to health care and are able to make their own 71 +9 13 16 reproductive health care decisions Protecting Obamacare and expanding access to affordable health care to more low-income Americans* 63 15 22 Supporting equal pay for equal work 60 +4 18 22 Prote ti g our fa ilies health ith lea air and water 57 +6 16 28-8 Clinton Trump No difference -6-6 Moving the country from fossil fuels to clean energy to protect our air, water, and climate* 56 14 30 Making debt-free college available to everyone* 55 17 28 Raising the minimum wage* 55 22 23 Allowing people with student loans to refinance them at current interest rates* 54 17 29 Making the wealthy pay their fair share* 51 22 27 Implementing common sense gun safety rules 47 +0 28 25-2 *Question was not asked in July survey. 7
How Millennials View Donald Trump 8
Clinton has made significant gains since July Michael Phelps Popularity (AMONG MILLENNIAL LIKELY VOTERS) Favorable 73 Unfamiliar Unfavorable 15 11 NET Fav - Unfav SEPT JULY +62 N/A* Barack Obama 67 1 32 +35 +20 Hillary Clinton 44 2 54 - -28 Ryan Lochte 40 50-40 N/A* Lord Voldemort 14 32 54-40 -38 Donald Trump 23 1 75-52 -48 Vladimir Putin 26 64-54 N/A* *Question was not asked in July survey. 9
Ti e has failed to softe Tru p s i age as ille ials still see him as racist and unfit for office Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? (AMONG MILLENNIAL LIKELY VOTERS) Donald Trump is racist Agree Disagree 73 27 JULY % agree 72 I would be scared if Donald Trump had control of our ou tr s u lear arse al 74 26 N/A* I would be ashamed of my country if Donald Trump were to win this election 71 29 71 Donald Trump is unfit to protect our country from major threats 70 30 69 Vladimir Putin and the Russian government want Donald Trump to win the election 65 35 N/A* Donald Trump respects women 25 75 26 *Question was not asked in July survey.
Mille ials largely reje t Tru p s orld ie a d a didates ho support him. Also believe candidates should release tax returns Total Likely Voters America is made stronger by its diversity of people and views. Agree 87 89 Disagree 13 11 I would be reluctant to vote for a candidate for U.S. Senate or Congress who supports Donald Trump. Total Likely Voters Agree 59 65 Disagree 41 35 How important is it to you that candidates release their tax returns so voters can see whether the candidate would profit from their own policy proposals? Total Likely Voters Important 72 74 Not important 28 26 11
Millennials find many Trump actions deeply offensive, led by mocking of a reporter, offensive statements towards Mexicans and the Khans Below are statements and actions Donald Trump has made and taken. Please indicate how offensive you find each, if at all. (AMONG MILLENNIAL LIKELY VOTERS) Mo ki g a reporter s disa ilit Very offensive 72 Somewhat offensive 17 MILLENNIALS OVERALL % very offensive 73 Calling Mexican immigrants rapists and killers 67 19 67 Criticizing the parents of a Muslim American soldier who died at war 65 20 64 Saying women should be punished for having an abortion 61 20 59 Falsely claiming he watched American Muslims cheer on 9/11 on the news 59 22 57 Tweeting Appre iate the o grats for ei g right o radi al Isla i terroris after a shooti g 54 24 52 Saying Barack Obama founded ISIS 54 21 51 Saying a U.S.- or judge a t e i partial agai st Tru p e ause the judge is Me i a 53 27 52 Calling for a shutdown of Muslims entering the United States 52 19 50 12
How Millennials View Environment and Climate Issues 13
Energy and climate issues are among top stances that would make millennials more likely to vote for a candidate Please indicate how a candidate taking each stance would impact your likelihood of voting for that candidate. (AMONG MILLENNIAL LIKELY VOTERS) Wants to transition the U.S. from dirty fossil fuels to clean energy like wind and solar to protect our air, water, and climate More likely to vote for candidate 83 No difference Less likely 14 3 MILLENIALS OVERALL % more likely SANDERS HOLDOUTS 78 85 Wants to make the wealthy and corporations pay their fair share of taxes 83 11 6 77 90 Wants to establish the U.S. as the clean energy superpower of the world 80 16 4 75 83 Supports universal background checks on gun sales 77 17 6 72 84 Supports limiting carbon pollution from power plants that contributes to climate change 76 19 5 73 80 Wants to ensure that women have the right to make their own reproductive health care decisions 75 15 71 79 Wants to make debt-free college available to everyone 74 12 14 71 84 Wants to raise the federal minimum wage 68 15 17 65 74 14
Conclusions 15
Conclusions Millennial voters continue to despise Trump. Donald Trump has done nothing during or after the convention to change ille ials perceptions that he is racist and unfit to serve. Large majorities of millennials find his actions deeply offensive and few prefer his policy positions. Clinton is making inroads, including among Sanders supporters, as millennials see more differences on issues between she and Trump. But there is still much to be done. Cli to s vote share among millennials has increased particularly with likely voters as she has started to consolidate Sanders supporters. More millennials see a difference between Clinton and Trump on issues, but there remains room for growth. Energy and climate issues continue to be among the most salient to millennials. Ca didates stances on climate and energy are critically important for millennials in deciding whom to vote for. There are fewer Sanders Holdouts as awareness of the differences between Clinton and Trump has grown, suggesting room for further growth in Clinton support as remaining Sanders Holdouts become aware of those differences. 16
Thank You 17