Measuring Development in Turbulent Times November 28-29, 2017 Europeanization in the making. Perceptions on the Economic Effects of European Integration in Romania Loredana Radu, NUPSPA, Romania, loredana.radu@comunicare.ro Florența Toader, NUPSPA, Romania, florența.toader@comunicare.ro
Introduction The goal of the paper: the study of the Romanian public s attitude towards the European Union More exactly - to observe and explain patterns of EU support in Romania
Context We challenge the utilitarian theory Citizens perceptions over CEE countries European integration are shaped by the economic benefits brought by integration
Premise of the study Based on previous studies (i.e. Fomina & Radu, 2016), Romanians attitudes towards the EU are shaped mainly by instrumental and identity related motivations
Background According to the Standard Eurobarometer published August 2017, more than four in ten Europeans, representing 42% of the total sample, trust the European Union Comparing this percentage with results of a Eurobarometer published in autumn 2015, trust in the EU has raised with 10%
Background Eastern-European states such as Lithuania (65%), Romania (57%) or Bulgaria (54%) maintain a strong euro-optimistic orientation Romanians perceive the economic situation (15%) as the third most important concern of the union (Eurobarometer, August 2017) Still, Romanians are optimistic regarding the future of the EU (67%)
Predictors of EU support Hard predictors - utilitarian predictors (economic interests) Soft predictors - the degree of identification with one s national identity, perceived meaning of EU membership, political cues (de Vreese et al., 2008)
Methodology Step I: analysis of hard data on the economic effects of European integration Step II: quantitative analysis of Romanian citizens perceptions over the EU through a national survey conducted in September 2017, on a sample of 1107 respondents The aim of the investigation - to identify shifts (if any) in Romanians attitudes towards the EU) and factors that can explain citizens apparent unreserved trust in the EU
Research objectives Ob.1 To investigate the impact of EU integration on Romania s economic performance based on the following indicators GDP and GDP per capita, evolution of public debt, and the absorption of EU funds; Ob.2 To investigate Romanian citizens perceptions on the economic development of the country in the CEE region; Ob.3 To investigate Romanian citizens trust in the local political institutions as compared to the EU;
Research objectives Ob.4 To investigate Romanian citizens perception on the impact EU funds have on the economic growth of the country; Ob. 5 To investigate Romanian citizens personal evaluation of their life quality and its correlation with EU support.
The economic effects of EU integration in Romania average growth, great inequalities The European integration constituted an impulse for the growth of the Romanian GDP, especially comparing its values before 2007 The peak in terms of GDP was reached in 2008, one year after the EU integration but dropped in in 2009 and has fluctuated ever since Romania s GDP depends on the economic performance of the Bucharest- Ilfov region and there are still great economic cleavages between the urban and the rural areas
Evolution of Romania s GDP (1987 2015, million dollars, current prices)
The economic effects of EU integration in Romania average growth, great inequalities In the last 10 years Romania has not managed to reduce the disparities with the Euro-Zone in what concerns the economic well-being of its citizens Even though in absolute terms Romania has seen a progress in terms of GDP after the EU integration, this does not reflect in the GDP/capita Compared to other CEE countries, Romania is only above Bulgaria in terms of GDP/capita, but has had a modest growth in comparison with Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Hungary or Slovakia There are regions in Romania, that barely reach 40% of Bucharest s performance in terms of GDP per capita
The economic effects of EU integration in Romania average growth, great inequalities Compared to other CEE countries, Romania is performing well in terms of public debt, being placed on third place after Slovenia and Slovakia While countries such as the Czech Republic and Bulgaria have managed to reduce their public debt, in Romania the value of the debt increases year by year
Public debt in CEE Countries (2016)
The economic effects of EU integration in Romania average growth, great inequalities Starting January 2009 until November 2016 - constant growth of the absorption of European funds, but this growth has been slow Romania has barely absorbed 45.5% of the European funds Romania is not one of the best players when talking about absorption
Pessimistic economic evaluations and soft- Euro-optimism The data collected through the national survey show a rather pessimistic view of the Romanian citizens over the economic growth following EU integration
Direction Romania is heading Wrong direction 66.80% Good direction 21.10% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00%
Life satisfaction Very satisfied 1.50% Quite satisfied 40.90% Quite unsatisfied 47.50% Very unsatisfied 9.20% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 50.00%
Evaluation of personal economic evolution Improved 20.30% Has remained the same 43.20% Worsened 35.80% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 50.00%
Level of satisfaction with Romania s economic growth Very satisfied 0.30% Quite satisfied 18.50% Quite unsatisfied 60.10% Very unsatisfied 17.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00%
Romania s economic growth vs. EU member states Significantly higher 0.20% Quite high 2.60% Aproximately the same 1.70% Quite low 53.40% Significantly lower 37.30% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00%
Romania s economic growth vs. CEE countries Significantly higher 0.20% Quite high 5.20% Aproximately the same 3.40% Quite low 64.90% Significantly lower 15.80% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00%
Romania s economic growth since 2007 Significantly higher 1.70% Quite high 31.60% Aproximately the same 14.70% Quite low 35.70% Significantly lower 4.80% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00%
Romanian s evaluation of Government s spending of public money Very well 0.60% Quite well 9.90% Quite badly 51.20% Very badly 27.50% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00%
Usefulness of EU funds on economic growth 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Very little use 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Highly useful
Use of EU funds for Romania s economic growth 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% Very badly used 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Very well used
Use of EU funds for Romania s economic growth compared to other CEE countries 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% Very badly used 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Very well used
Overall trust Russia SUA NATO 16.10% 8.40% 43.50% 22.00% 31.70% 29.70% 29.90% 52.80% 7.40% 1.20% 4.60% 6.90% Very little EU IMF 6.80% 22.10% 19.60% 36.70% 59.40% 26.80% 2.20% 6.70% Quite little Parties Justice Government 16.80% 34.80% 55.20% 32.90% 40.40% 35.60% 42.50% 6.40% 0.20% 3.00% 21.30% 1.30% Quite much Parliament Presidency Mass-media 19.70% 14.10% 40.20% 46.50% 41.90% 43.20% 27.50% 37.20% 14.40% 0.80% 3.80% 4.70% Very much 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00% 120.00%
Conclusions The results of this study show little support for the utilitarian approach of EU support among Romanian citizens latent utilitarian evaluations Romanian citizens have a pessimistic evaluation over the economic performance of the country compared to other EU members states, and state that Romania is heading in a wrong direction Romanian citizens tend to trust supranational organization such as the EU or NATO more than they trust the Presidency, Parliament, Government, or the internal Justice system The lack of trust in the Government can be associated with a lack of satisfaction with its policies and ability to adequately manage the public money
Conclusions The symbolic meaning of EU membership, which is perceived as desirable compared to other geopolitical options In Romania, where EU political issues are still scarcely discussed in the public sphere and where trust in the national political institutions and media system is low, EU continues to keep its aura of desirability
Bibliography Bârgăoanu, A., Corbu, N. & Radu, L. (2013). The Role of Government Evaluations and EU Identity in Shaping Economic Expectations during the Crisis. The case of Romania, European Journal of Science and Theology, 9(4), 225-241. Boomgaarden, H. G., van Spanje, J., Vliegenthart, R. & de Vreese, C. H. (2011). Covering the crisis: Media coverage of the economic crisis and citizens economic expectations, Acta Politica, 46, 353-379. De Vreese, C.H., Boomgaarden, H.G., and Semetko, H. (2008). Hard and soft: public support for Turkish membership in the EU. European Union Politics 9(4), pp. 511 30. Fomina, J. & Radu, L. (2016). Who s Afraid of the Big Bad Wolf? - A Qualitative Assessment of Poles and Romanians Attitudes Towards the European Union (84-109). Inquiring Communication Through Qualitative Research. Cambridge Scholars Pulishing Newcastle Standard Eurobarometer publisher August 2017, available online at: http://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/survey/getsurveydetail/i nstruments/standard/surveyky/2142