The Essential Report 9 September 2014 MELBOURNE SYDNEY BRUSSELS www.essentialresearch.com.au
The Essential Report Date: 9 September 2014 Prepared by: Essential Research Data supplied: Essential Media Communications is a member of the Association of Market and Social Research Organisations. Our researchers are members of the Australian Market and Social Research Society The Essential Report 9/09/14 Page 2 / 13
About this poll This report summarises the results of a weekly omnibus conducted by Essential Research with data provided by Your Source. The survey was conducted online from the 5 th to 8 th September 2014 and is based on 1,004 respondents. Aside from the standard question on voting intention, this week s report includes questions on leadership approval, best PM, involvement in Iraq and dumping the mining tax. The methodology used to carry out this research is described in the appendix on page 13. Note that due to rounding, not all tables necessarily total 100% and subtotals may also vary. The Essential Report 9/09/14 Page 3 / 13
Federal politics voting intention Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? Q. If don t know - Well which party are you currently leaning to? Sample size = 1,775 respondents First preference/leaning to Election 7 Sep 13 4 weeks ago 12/8/14 2 weeks ago 26/8/14 Last week 2/9/14 This week 9/9/14 Liberal 38% 36% 36% 36% National 3% 3% 4% 3% Liberal/National 45.6% 41% 39% 40% 39% Labor 33.4% 39% 37% 38% 38% Greens 8.6% 8% 10% 9% 10% Palmer United Party 5.5% 5% 6% 5% 4% Other/Independent 6.9% 7% 8% 8% 9% 2 Party Preferred Election 7 Sep 13 4 weeks ago 12/8/14 2 weeks ago 26/8/14 Last week 2/9/14 This week 9/9/14 Liberal National 53.5% 49% 48% 48% 48% Labor 46.5% 51% 52% 52% 52% NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2- week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select don t know are not included in the results. The two- party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election. The Essential Report 2/09/14 Page 4 / 13
Approval of Tony Abbott Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Prime Minister? Labor Lib/Nat Greens Other Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader 2 Sep 13 Tony Abbott as Prime Minister 24 Sep approve 35% 6% 84% 14% 19% 40% 41% 40% 35% 34% 37% disapprove 52% 87% 9% 79% 65% 49% 36% 47% 58% 58% 54% Strongly approve 9% 2% 25% 1% - 13% 14% 11% 10% 8% 13% Approve 26% 4% 59% 13% 19% 27% 27% 29% 25% 26% 24% Disapprove 22% 29% 8% 26% 32% 19% 13% 20% 18% 22% 19% Strongly disapprove 30% 58% 1% 53% 33% 30% 23% 27% 40% 36% 35% Don t know 13% 7% 7% 8% 16% 10% 23% 12% 7% 7% 9% 11 Mar 11 June 8 July 12 Aug 52% of respondents disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Prime Minister - down 2% since the last time this question was asked in August - and 35% approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing (down 2%). This represents no change in net rating at - 17. 84% (up 4%) of Liberal/National voters approve of Tony Abbott s performance, with 9% (down 3%) disapproving. 87% of Labor voters and 79% of Greens voters disapprove of Tony Abbott s performance. By gender men were 42% approve/48% disapprove and women 29% approve/56% disapprove. The Essential Report 2/09/14 Page 5 / 13
Approval of Bill Shorten Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader? Labor Lib/Nat Greens Other 12 Nov 2013 approve 35% 61% 22% 42% 21% 31% 32% 38% 36% 34% disapprove 36% 16% 58% 30% 51% 27% 39% 40% 39% 40% Strongly approve 5% 13% 1% 4% - 5% 4% 7% 6% 7% Approve 30% 48% 21% 38% 21% 26% 28% 31% 30% 27% Disapprove 22% 14% 28% 22% 32% 17% 24% 22% 22% 21% Strongly disapprove 14% 2% 30% 8% 19% 10% 15% 18% 17% 19% Don t know 29% 23% 21% 29% 27% 43% 29% 22% 25% 25% 11 Mar 11 June 8 July 12 Aug 35% (up 1% since August) of respondents approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing as opposition leader and 36% (down 4%) disapprove. This represents an improvement in net rating from - 6 to - 1. 61% (down 2%) of Labor voters approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing and 16% (up 2%) disapprove. 38% of men and 32% of women approve of Bill Shorten. 41% of men and 32% of women disapprove. The Essential Report 2/09/14 Page 6 / 13
Better Prime Minister Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten? 22 Oct Labor Lib/Nat Greens Other 2013 11 Mar 11 June 8 July 12 Aug Tony Abbott 35% 5% 82% 9% 22% 41% 39% 36% 34% 37% Bill Shorten 36% 69% 5% 60% 33% 22% 33% 40% 37% 36% Don t know 30% 26% 13% 32% 45% 37% 28% 24% 29% 27% 35% (down 2% since August) of respondents think Tony Abbott would make the better Prime Minister and 36% (no change) think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister. Men prefer Tony Abbott 39% to 36% and women prefer Bill Shorten 35% to 30%. The Essential Report 2/09/14 Page 7 / 13
Supplying arms to Iraq Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the Australian Government s decision to supply arms and weapons to Kurdish forces fighting in Iraq? Labor Lib/Nat Greens Other approve 38% 27% 55% 32% 38% disapprove 39% 52% 23% 51% 47% Strongly approve 13% 8% 23% 4% 7% Approve 25% 19% 32% 28% 31% Disapprove 20% 23% 16% 27% 23% Strongly disapprove 19% 29% 7% 24% 24% Don t know 24% 21% 22% 17% 15% 38% approve of the Australian Government s decision to supply arms and weapons to Kurdish forces fighting in Iraq and 39% disapprove. Those most likely to approve were Liberal/National voters (55%), men (50%) and aged 65+ (62%). Those most likely to disapprove were Labor voters (52%), Greens voters (51%) and women (45%). The Essential Report 2/09/14 Page 8 / 13
Supporting air strikes in Iraq Q. Would you approve or disapprove of Australia sending military planes to support the US air strikes in Iraq? Labor Lib/Nat Greens Other approve 38% 31% 54% 32% 37% disapprove 42% 55% 29% 55% 46% Strongly approve 12% 9% 20% 8% 9% Approve 26% 22% 34% 24% 28% Disapprove 23% 26% 21% 31% 23% Strongly disapprove 19% 29% 8% 24% 23% Don t know 19% 14% 17% 14% 18% 38% would approve of Australia sending military planes to support the US air strikes in Iraq and 42% would disapprove. Those most likely to approve were Liberal/National voters (54%), men (50%) and aged 65+ (58%). Those most likely to disapprove were Labor voters (55%), Greens voters (55%) and women (49%). The Essential Report 2/09/14 Page 9 / 13
Sending troops to Iraq Q. Would you approve or disapprove of Australia sending troops to Iraq if the USA asks for our support? Q. Would you approve or disapprove of Australia sending troops to Iraq if the United Nations asks for our support? USA Labor Lib/Nat Greens Other United Nations Labor Lib/Nat Greens approve 27% 21% 38% 28% 21% 45% 43% 53% 42% 38% disapprove 54% 64% 46% 63% 62% 36% 40% 30% 42% 49% Strongly approve 8% 6% 12% 4% 5% 12% 8% 15% 22% 8% Approve 19% 15% 26% 24% 16% 33% 35% 38% 20% 30% Disapprove 26% 25% 28% 34% 26% 20% 20% 19% 24% 26% Strongly disapprove 28% 39% 18% 29% 36% 16% 20% 11% 18% 23% Don t know 19% 16% 17% 9% 17% 20% 17% 17% 16% 13% Other Only 27% would approve Australia sending troops to Iraq if the USA asks for our support but 45% would approve of Australia sending troops to Iraq if the United Nations asks for our support. Those most likely to approve sending troops were men (34% US/52% UN) and Liberal/National voters (38% US/53% UN). Those most likely to disapprove sending troops were Labor voters (64% US/40% UN) and Greens voters (63% US/42% UN). The Essential Report 2/09/14 Page 10 / 13
Trust in the Government s handling of international relations Q. How much trust do you have in Tony Abbott and the Liberal Government to handle Australia s international relations? 26 Nov 9 Oct 13 Labor Lib/Nat Greens other 13 a lot/some trust 36% 12% 75% 13% 25% 41% 41% little/no trust 55% 83% 21% 81% 66% 53% 53% A lot of trust 14% 2% 38% 3% 4% 18% 20% Some trust 22% 10% 37% 10% 21% 23% 21% A little trust 21% 26% 17% 19% 25% 16% 18% No trust 34% 57% 4% 62% 41% 37% 35% Don t know 9% 5% 3% 6% 9% 7% 7% 14% of people have a lot of trust in Tony Abbott and the Liberal Government to handle Australia s international relations - down 6% since November. 34% have no trust. Labor (57%) and Greens (62%) voters were far more likely to have no trust. Liberal/National voters were far less likely (4%) to have no trust. 38% of Liberal/National voters have a lot of trust. Since this question was asked in November, total trust has dropped from 41% to 36%. The Essential Report 2/09/14 Page 11 / 13
Dumping the mining tax Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the Government's decision to dump the mining tax? Labor Lib/Nat Greens Other approve 44% 26% 78% 8% 41% disapprove 31% 53% 8% 71% 31% Strongly approve 16% 7% 32% 1% 14% Approve 28% 19% 46% 7% 27% Disapprove 14% 24% 4% 26% 14% Strongly disapprove 17% 27% 4% 45% 17% Don t know 25% 22% 14% 20% 27% 44% approve of the Government's decision to dump the mining tax and 31% disapprove. Those most likely to approve were Liberal/National voters (78%) and aged 65+ (58%), Those most likely to disapprove were Greens voters (71%) and Labor voters (53%). The Essential Report 2/09/14 Page 12 / 13
Appendix: Methodology, margin of error and professional standards The data gathered for this report is gathered from a weekly online omnibus conducted by Your Source. Essential Research has been utilizing the Your Source online panel to conduct research on a week- by- week basis since November 2007. Each week, the team at Essential Media Communications discusses issues that are topical and a series of questions are devised to put to the Australian public. Some questions are repeated regularly (such as political preference and leadership approval), while others are unique to each week and reflect media and social issues that are present at the time. Your Source has a self- managed consumer online panel of over 100,000 members. The majority of panel members have been recruited using off line methodologies, effectively ruling out concerns associated with online self- selection. Your Source has validation methods in place that prevent panellist over use and ensure member authenticity. Your Source randomly selects 18+ males and females (with the aim of targeting 50/50 males/females) from its Australia wide panel. An invitation is sent out to approximately 7000 8000 of their panel members. The response rate varies each week, but usually delivers 1000+ interviews. In theory, with a sample of this size, there is 95 per cent certainty that the results are within 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire population had been polled. However, this assumes random sampling, which, because of non- response and less than 100% population coverage cannot be achieved in practice. Furthermore, there are other possible sources of error in all polls including question wording and question order, interviewer bias (for telephone and face- to- face polls), response errors and weighting. The best guide to a poll s accuracy is to look at the record of the polling company - how have they performed at previous elections or other occasions where their estimates can be compared with known population figures. In the last poll before the 2010 election, the Essential Report estimates of first preference votes were all within 1% of the election results. The Your Source online omnibus is live from the Wednesday night of each week and closed on the following Sunday. Incentives are offered to participants in the form of points. Essential Research uses the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software to analyse the data. The data is weighted against Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data. All Essential Research and senior Your Source staff hold Australian Market and Social Research Society (AMSRS) membership and are bound by professional codes of behaviour. Your Source is an Australian social and market research company specializing in recruitment, field research, data gathering and data analysis. Essential Research is a member of the Association Market and Social Research Organisations (AMSRO). Your Source holds Interviewer Quality Control Australia (IQCA) accreditation, Association Market and Social Research Organisations (AMSRO) membership and World Association of Opinion and Marketing Research Professionals (ESOMAR) membership. Both Essential Research and Your Source are ISO accredited market research companies. This research was conducted in compliance with AS: ISO20252 guidelines. The Essential Report 2/09/14 Page 13 / 13