Shifting Attitudes, False Perceptions: recent Irish Immigration in Comparative Perspective Cormac Ó Gráda University College Dublin, School of Economics Milan, April 22 nd, 2016 Conference on Immigration, Refugees and Asylum Policies
Immigration, Asylum, and Gender: Ireland and Beyond Kevin Denny and Cormac Ó Gráda University College Dublin
Immigration into Ireland: Relatively new phenomenon: Born outside IRL+UK+US: 1991: 40,341 2011: 0.5 million pread throughout country: Non-national share: 8.8% in Donegal 15.7% in Dublin
Immigration to Ireland since 2002 in Comparative Perspective
Unemployment 0 5 10 15 GDP 80 100 120 140 160 2000 2005 2010 2015 Quarterly Unemployment Rate GDP (Billions) The Irish Economy: Migration, GDP, and Unemployment
Q. Why has Ireland no UKIP, AfD, FN, LN? A. Does it depend on type of migrant? 1991 2011 Muslims 3,873 49,204 African-born 26,515 54,419 Asian-born 28,132 79,021 B. Is it just a matter of time?
Ireland more pro-immigrant than average before recession; less so afterwards
European Social Survey: 2002 (Round 1)-2014 (Round 7) Widely used: e.g. Dustman et al. 2005; Sides and Citrin 2007; Hainmueller and Hiscox 2007; Dustman and Preston 2008; Héricourt and Spielvogel 2010; Markaki and Longhi 2013; Betz and Simpson 2013; Hatton 2015; Gorodzeisky and Semyonov 2015.
European Social Survey Advantages: Wide reach; seven waves so far; interesting range of questions Limitations: Response bias Comparing like with like? Endogeneity Compare Eurobarometer
Immigration and Public Opinion: Eurobarometer
Irish Attitudes in Comparative Perspective: ESS Round 6 Allow many/few immigrants from different race/ethnic group from majority Immigrants make country better or worse place to live in Country s culture is undermined by immigrants Immigration is bad/good for country s economy ESS Round 6 [n=29] 1 Sweden Iceland Finland Switzerland 2 Iceland Sweden Sweden Norway 3 Norway Denmark Iceland Iceland 27 Hungary Portugal Kazakhstan Slovakia 28 Israel Cyprus Russia Russia 29 Cyprus Russia Cyprus Cyprus Ireland 18 10 15 15 Portugal 26 27 20 23 Spain 8 12 7 11
Irish Attitudes in Comparative Perspective: ESS Round 7 Allow many/few immigrants from different race/ethnic group from majority Immigrants make country better or worse place to live in Country s culture is undermined by immigrants Immigration is bad/good for country s economy ESS Round 7 [n=15] 1 Sweden Sweden Sweden Switzerland 2 Norway Denmark Finland Sweden 3 Denmark Norway Denmark Denmark 13 Austria Slovenia Slovenia Belgium 14 Estonia Austria Austria Slovenia 15 Czech R Czech R Czech R Czech R Ireland 12 8 12 6
Some Replies to Allow many or few Muslims/Gypsies/Jews to come and live in country ALL IRELAND ALLOW: Jews Muslims Gypsies Jews Muslims Gypsies Many 23.38 13.56 11.01 16.31 10.79 5.72 Some 45.02 36.01 28.62 38.28 30.13 20.37 Few 23.49 29.50 31.48 33.97 33.71 29.43 None 8.11 20.93 28.90 11.44 25.37 44.48 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100
Some Replies to Allow many or few Muslims/Gypsies/Jews to come and live in country SWEDEN CZECH REPUBLIC ALLOW: Jews Muslims Gypsies Jews Muslims Gypsies Many 48.04 38.57 37.56 9.2 1.48 1.38 Some 44.02 42.72 40.44 34.67 12.13 9.34 Few 6.90 14.91 16.42 37.14 28.84 25.06 None 1.04 3.8 5.59 18.98 57.55 64.22 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100
Denny and Ó Gráda (2016) More hostile: Women, older people Less hostile: educated, socially liberal, politically left, no religion Being hard up impacted during crisis and after, but not before Unemployed: more anti-immigrant during crisis, not otherwise
Ireland and Asylum: Numbers and policy stance mirror UK experience Citizenship tourism Tough on asylum-seekers Citizenship Ceremonies
Asylum Seekers, Ireland and the UK
Citizenship Referendum, 2004 But vote was 80/20 YES
Irish Citizenship Ceremonies 2011-2016
Pregnancy tourism? Common belief some immigrant groups exploited law to gain citizenship Birth in Ireland => citizenship pre- 2005 Booking in at one Dublin hospital Normally 1 st appointment ~ 180 days before birth
Asylum controversial in early 2000s, Irish tolerant [4 th in R1, 5 th in R7] ESS R7 => More supportive: Older people, women, socially liberal and left; not being fearful; not being religious; being satisfied with life; trusting people and politicians; having contact with non-nationals. Xenophobia strongly linked to hostility towards asylum seekers
Women s attitudes More risk averse generally Different attitudes towards religiosity, politics, charity, policy More hostile to free trade and to immigration Why? Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition=> responses rather than characteristics
Voter Preferences, US 1952-2008
PERCEPTIONS OF LEVEL OF IMMIGRATION NOIMBRO in Round 7 [ Of every 100 people how many do you think are born outside country? ] On average, people over-estimate the level of immigration What characteristics predict this?
Perceived Immigrant % of Population: Male [0] and Female[1]
PERCEPTIONS: Women more likely to overestimate Overestimation also linked to: Low educational levels Religiosity, politically right-wing Xenophobia Unhappy, unsatisfied, unhealthy Immigration not culturally enriching
The Gender Gap: Endowments or Characteristics? Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition => responses or characteristics: which matter more? As before, it is women s response are different
CONCLUSIONS: Irish attitudes have evolved Irish softer on asylum than migration Asylum exploited in past Gender differences Perceptions of immigrant presence