N.H. Voters Boost Insurgents But Does it Translate Nationally?

ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: CAMPAIGN 2000, N.H. and National EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 6:30 p.m. Thursday, Dec. 16, 1999 N.H. Voters Boost Insurgents But Does it Translate Nationally? Anti-establishment credentials have vaulted Bill Bradley and John McCain to very competitive positions in the New Hampshire presidential primaries but the Granite State's fondness for insurgents hasn't translated nationally for either candidate. Bradley has 48 percent support to Al Gore's 45 percent among likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, but Gore leads nationally by 64 to 31 percent, two new polls by ABC News and The Washington Post have found. On the Republican side, McCain has 40 percent support to George W. Bush's 39 percent in New Hampshire. But Bush leads McCain nationally by 72 percent to 13 percent among Republicans and independents who lean toward the Republican Party. Vote Preference Democrats Republicans Bradley Gore McCain Bush New Hampshire 48% 45 40% 39 Nationally 31 64 13 72 Some strategists speculate that strong showings in New Hampshire can boost McCain and Bradley in the weeks that follow. It's possible but not a sure bet: Six in 10 of Gore's primary backers nationally support him "strongly," as do seven in 10 of Bush's supporters. Both, especially Gore, have greater strength of support nationally than their opponents. GENERAL - If McCain and Bradley did manage to win their parties' nominations, it could make for an exciting general election race: Head to head nationally, they run even. A Gore/McCain race also is close, while Bush leads Gore by 16 points and Bradley by 20. National Trial Heats General Election Bush vs. Gore Bush vs. Bradley Gore vs. McCain Bradley vs. McCain 55-39 56-36 47-44 45-43 These national trial heats are little changed, other than a better showing by McCain versus Gore. But there is movement beneath the surface for the national frontrunners, with Bush's leadership ratings weakening and Gore's improving; yet with Gore losing

ground in other personal qualities such as honesty and trustworthiness. The rough and tumble of campaigning may be dulling some of both candidates' luster. INDIES There's a structural difference in New Hampshire that's complicating life for Bush and Gore: Its primaries attract many more independent voters than usual for a state primary, and independents are Bradley's and especially McCain's biggest backers. McCain trails Bush by 12 points among self-identified Republicans, but leads him by 20 points among independents who plan to vote in the GOP primary. That's important because a third of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire say they're independents, same as it was in 1996. By contrast, in the seven-state 1996 Super Tuesday primaries three weeks later, just 19 percent of GOP voters were independents. New Hampshire independents also are important to Bradley, but less so. Among N.H. Likely Voters McCain Bush Bradley Gore Republicans 32% 44 Democrats 46 49 Independents 53 33 Independents 50 41 LA DIFFERENCE There are other important differences in New Hampshire. For one thing, its voters are paying much closer attention to the election campaign, and more feel they know the candidates well. That's a more hopeful sign for Bradley and McCain, suggesting they could do better elsewhere as voters tune in. Following the campaign Feel well-informed "very closely" about the candidates New Hampshire 33% 68% Nationally 12 35 But it also seems that the two insurgents have tapped into a culture of anti-establishment politics an aversion to pandering and an admiration for plain speaking, even iconoclasm at least some of which may be particular to New Hampshire (view its votes for Pat Buchanan in 1996 and Paul Tsongas in '92.) For example, 56 percent of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire think McCain is "not a typical politician," compared to just 40 percent for Bush. While 57 percent think Bush would "bring needed change to Washington," that jumps to 77 percent for McCain. Most tellingly, while 52 percent think Bush "says what he really thinks, even if it's not politically popular," a whopping 85 percent say that's true of McCain. McCain also has capitalized in New Hampshire on Bush's perceived weakness in world affairs, and on Bush's comparatively late start there; considerably more Republican voters think he takes the state seriously, and understands their personal concerns.

Among Rep. Voters in New Hampshire Bush McCain Gap He says what he thinks 52% 85 +33 He knows world affairs 53 79 +26 He'd bring change to Washington 57 77 +20 Takes N.H. concerns seriously 63 83 +20 He's not a typical politician 40 56 +16 He understands your problems 59 74 +15 Knows where he wants to lead 71 85 +14 He can be trusted in a crisis 71 84 +13 He's honest and trustworthy 80 91 +11 He's very intelligent 79 90 +11 He's a strong leader 72 78 +6 He has the right experience 71 72 +1 He has the right temperament 78 77-1 Nationally, though, these issues aren't playing out for McCain nearly as well. One reason, which exposure can address, is that he's much less well-known, so many more people have no opinion of him. But Bush has much stronger ratings nationally than in New Hampshire on several qualities, with the notable exception of being a "typical politician." Bush Ratings N.H. Rep. voters National leaned Reps. He says what he thinks 52% 71 He knows world affairs 53 71 He'd bring change to Washington 57 74 He understands your problems 59 68 He's not a typical politician 40 45 DEMOCRATIC DANCE Many of the same elements are at play in the Gore-Bradley race. Seventy-six percent of likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire believe that Bradley says what he thinks, even if it's unpopular; only 45 percent say that of Gore. Fifty-four percent say Bradley is not a typical politician; that falls to 34 percent for Gore. And after his two terms as vice president, only 40 percent in New Hampshire say Gore would "bring needed change to Washington." Sixty-eight percent say Bradley would do so. At the same time, there are weaknesses for Bradley in New Hampshire, particularly in having "the right experience" and knowledge of world affairs. Among Dem. Voters in New Hampshire Gore Bradley Gap He says what he thinks 45% 76 +31 He'd bring change to Washington 40 68 +28 He's not a typical politician 34 54 +20 He understands your problems 65 79 +14

Takes N.H. concerns seriously 77 86 +9 He's honest and trustworthy 79 87 +8 He's a strong leader 63 71 +8 Knows where he wants to lead 71 78 +7 He has the right temperament 75 81 +6 He's very intelligent 91 90-1 He can be trusted in a crisis 79 77-2 He has the right experience 85 66-19 He knows world affairs 89 63-26 As with McCain in his party, sizable numbers of leaned Democrats nationally have no opinion of Bradley on these qualities. For his part, Gore does better nationally than in New Hampshire on some qualities, such as bringing change to Washington; and worse on others, such as knowledge, experience and intelligence. Gore Ratings N.H. Dem. voters National leaned Dems. He says what he thinks 45% 54 He'd bring change to Washington 40 46 He knows world affairs 89 78 He's honest and trustworthy 79 72 He has the right experience 85 82 He's very intelligent 91 81 He knows world affairs 89 78 He's not a typical politician 34 45 FINANCE/TAXES Another issue that has some legs in New Hampshire for Bradley, and especially McCain, is campaign finance reform: Voters there trust McCain first and Bradley second to handle it, though hardly any rate it as the most important issue in their vote. Again, though, these candidates' edge on this issue fades nationally. (See separate poll analysis on campaign finance, released this morning.) Taxes, meanwhile, is one of those issues on which Bush may not be giving himself much of a boost. Among likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, 52 percent think Bush would be able to cut taxes without pushing the budget back into a deficit a majority, but hardly an impressive one. Nationally, 58 percent of leaned Republicans think he could do it. But among all Americans nationally, 59 percent think not. BRADLEY'S HEALTH Another issue is Bill Bradley's health, following his hospital check-up last week for an irregular heartbeat. It could be a problem for him: Nationally, 21 percent of Americans say this does make them concerned about his physical fitness to serve as president, including as many Democrats and independents as Republicans. There's less concern about Bradley's health half as much in New Hampshire. Concerned about Bradley's health? Yes No N.H. 21 75 National 11 87

SIR YES SIR Finally, these polls test McCain's appeal as war hero by checking his support in households that include a military service member, veteran or reservist. There's something there: Nationally, McCain's support against Bush doubles in military households, from 10 percent to 20. And in New Hampshire, he's backed by 50 percent of likely Republican voters in military households, compared to 33 percent in others. Support for McCain in Rep. Primary Military households Non-military N.H. 50% 33% National 20 10 ERRATA Note: An earlier version of this analysis made brief mention of "candidate qualities" data in the national poll. TNS Intersearch, the field house for this survey, later reported that a programming error created errors in some of these results. The errors were significant in some cases, but the data were not central to the analysis and did not affect its main conclusions. This report uses corrected data in the trend section under Q13. METHODOLOGY These ABC News/Washington Post polls were conducted by telephone Dec. 12-15, one among a random sample of 1,006 adults across the nation and the other among a random sample of 1,371 adults in New Hampshire, of whom 744 were identified as likely New Hampshire voters 435 Republicans and 309 Democrats. Error margins depend on sample size. The national results have an error margin of three percentage points; in New Hampshire the error margins are 3.5 points for all likely voters, 4.5 points for likely Republican voters and 5.5 points for likely Democratic voters. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa. Analysis by Gary Langer. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet, at: http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/pollvault/pollvault.html * = less than 0.5 percent 1. How closely are you following the 2000 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No closely closely closely at all opin. 12/15/99 Nat 12 33 31 24 * 12/15/99 NH* 33 53 12 2 * National trend: 10/31/99 16 45 25 13 * *NH: "the presidential primary campaign in New Hampshire" 2. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the 2000 presidential election: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

Don t think Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote No to vote vote 50/50 50/50 (vol.) opin. 12/15/99 Nat 64 13 8 9 6 1 12/15/99 NH* 77 17 5 1 * 0 3. (National poll only) If the election for president in the year 2000 were being held today, and the candidates were (Al Gore, the Democrat), and (George W. Bush, the Republican, who is the son of the former president), for whom would you vote? Neither Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 12/15/99 39 55 2 * 3 1 10/31/99 39 55 2 * 2 2 9/2/99 37 56 3 * 3 2 8/22/99 37 49 5 2 3 3 6/6/99 40 53 3 1 1 3 3/14/99 41 54 1 * 2 2 Unleaned: Neither Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 10/25/98 34 45 7 1 13 8/21/98 41 43 6 2 7 1/19/98 40 45 5 2 7 9/23/97 35 40 12 4 9 4. (National poll only) Do you support (Gore/Bush) strongly, or not strongly? -----------Gore---------- -----------Bush----------- Strngly Not No opin. Strngly Not No opin. 12/15/99 50 46 4 58 39 3 10/31/99* 35 65 * 37 62 1 9/2/99 38 61 1 43 56 1 3/14/99 38 62 * 40 58 2 *10/99 and previous: "strongly or only somewhat" 5. (National poll only) How about if the candidates were (Bill Bradley, the Democrat), and (George W. Bush, the Republican)? None Other Wouldn't No Bradley Bush (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 12/15/99 36 56 2 * 3 2 10/31/99 38 54 2 * 3 2 9/2/99 36 57 2 * 2 3 3/14/99 34 58 2 1 2 4 6. (National poll only) How about if the candidates were (Al Gore, the Democrat), and (John McCain, the Republican)? None Other Wouldn't No Gore McCain (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 12/15/99 47 44 2 * 4 3 10/31/99 51 38 4 * 4 3 7. (National poll only) How about if the candidates were (Bill Bradley, the Democrat), and (John McCain, the Republican)? None Other Wouldn't No Bradley McCain (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 12/15/99 45 43 4 1 4 3 8. Overall, how much do you feel you know about the candidates running for president a great deal, a good amount, just some or hardly anything? --Great deal/good amount-- -Just some/hardly anything- No

NET Great deal Good amt. NET Some hardly anything opin. 12/15/99 Nat 35 8 27 64 45 19 * 12/15/99 NH 68 16 52 32 29 2 * 9. Please tell me whether the following statement applies to (Gore/Bush), or not? National Poll: -------Bush------- -------Gore------ A. He s not a typical politician 42 52 6 44 51 5 B. He is honest and trustworthy 63 28 9 58 35 7 C. He understands the problems of people like you 47 46 7 46 49 6 D. He is a strong leader 67 26 7 43 51 7 E. He has the right kind of experience to be president 62 32 6 69 27 5 F. He has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president 71 22 7 55 40 5 G. He would bring needed change to Washington 52 40 8 33 60 7 H. He has the knowledge of world affairs it takes to serve effectively as president 54 38 8 68 27 6 I. He s very intelligent 77 16 7 74 21 6 J. He can be trusted in a crisis 62 27 11 53 38 9 K. He has a clear idea of where he wants to lead the nation 60 32 7 57 36 7 L. He says what he really thinks, even if it s not politically popular 57 36 7 43 51 7 New Hampshire Poll: Among GOP Voters Among Dem. Voters -------Bush------- -----Gore------ Yes No No op. Yes No No op. A. He s not a typical politician 40 58 3 34 64 2 B. He is honest and trustworthy 80 13 7 79 18 3 C. He understands the problems of people like you 59 35 6 65 32 3 D. He is a strong leader 72 21 7 63 33 5 E. He has the right kind of experience to be president 71 23 5 85 14 1 F. He has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president 78 17 5 75 21 4 G. He would bring needed change to Washington 57 35 7 40 54 6 H. He has the knowledge of world affairs it takes to serve effectively as president 53 36 10 89 9 2 I. He s very intelligent 79 15 6 91 6 2 J. He can be trusted in a crisis 71 15 14 79 16 5 K. He has a clear idea of where he wants to lead the nation 71 24 5 71 24 5 L. He says what he really thinks, even if it s not politically popular 52 42 6 45 49 6 M. He takes the concerns of New Hampshire voters seriously 63 30 7 77 18 4 National trend (where available): B. He is honest and trustworthy 12/15/99 63 28 9 58 35 7 10/31/99 68 22 10 67 28 6 9/2/99 63 23 14 63 27 11 3/14/99 67 12 22 63 24 13

C. He understands the problems of people like you 12/15/99 47 46 7 46 49 6 10/31/99 54 39 7 57 38 4 9/2/99 50 39 11 47 45 8 6/13/99 NA NA NA 44 44 12 3/14/99 52 27 21 48 41 11 D. He is a strong leader 12/15/99 67 26 7 43 51 7 10/31/99 77 18 5 47 47 6 9/2/99 70 18 12 38 52 10 6/13/99 NA NA NA 39 51 9 3/14/99 68 13 20 41 47 12 E. He has the right kind of experience to be president 12/15/99 62 32 6 69 27 5 10/31/99 66 28 6 70 27 3 9/2/99 61 30 9 69 27 4 F. He has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president 12/15/99 71 22 7 55 40 5 10/31/99 72 22 6 53 40 7 9/2/99 67 21 12 52 40 8 G. He would bring needed change to Washington 12/15/99 52 40 8 33 60 7 10/31/99 61 32 7 36 57 7 9/2/99 56 32 12 34 56 11 H. He has the knowledge of world affairs it takes to serve effectively as president 12/15/99 54 38 8 68 27 6 11/14/99 59 36 6 NA NA NA J. He can be trusted in a crisis 12/15/99 62 27 11 53 38 9 9/2/99 58 22 19 55 33 12 10. What's the single most important issue to you in deciding whom to support for president education, the economy, taxes, Social Security and Medicare, campaign finance reform, world affairs, health care, or what? [I'll repeat the list...] 12/15/99 Nat 12/15/99 NH Education 19 17 The economy 19 12 Taxes 12 11 Social Security and Medicare 20 18 Campaign finance reform 1 7 International affairs 6 9 Health care 15 19

Other 7 8 No opinion 1 1 11. As you may know, federal law limits the amount of money people can contribute to any presidential candidate s campaign, but people can give as much money as they want to any political party. Do you think the amount of money people can contribute to political parties should be limited, or unlimited? Limited Unlimited No opin. 12/15/99 Nat 68 30 1 12/15/99 NH 76 22 2 National trend: 10/17/99 63 33 4 12. Which one of these candidates do you trust most to handle the issue of campaign finance reform: (George W. Bush), (John McCain), (Bill Bradley), or (Al Gore)? Bush McCain Bradley Gore None (vol.) No opin. 12/15/99 Nat 34 19 14 24 5 4 12/15/99 NH 18 43 20 11 5 4 13. Please tell me whether the following statement applies to (McCain/Bradley), or not? National Poll: ------McCain------- ------Bradley----- Yes No No op. Yes No No op. A. He s not a typical politician 40 38 21 35 45 20 B. He is honest and trustworthy 56 24 20 60 20 20 C. He understands the problems of people like you 38 43 19 44 37 20 D. He is a strong leader 49 29 21 49 30 21 E. He has the right kind of experience to be president 40 38 22 39 41 20 F. He has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president 47 31 22 56 25 19 G. He would bring needed change to Washington 41 38 21 43 38 19 H. He has the knowledge of world affairs it takes to serve effectively as president 44 36 20 45 34 21 I. He s very intelligent 64 16 20 72 11 18 J. He can be trusted in a crisis 51 28 21 51 26 23 K. He has a clear idea of where he wants to lead the nation 50 30 21 52 30 18 L. He says what he really thinks, even if it s not politically popular 52 29 19 46 33 21 New Hampshire Poll: Among GOP Voters Among Dem. Voters ------McCain------- ------Bradley----- A. He s not a typical politician 56 41 4 54 42 4 B. He is honest and trustworthy 91 4 5 87 7 6 C. He understands the problems of people like you 74 19 7 79 16 6 D. He is a strong leader 78 15 7 71 18 11 E. He has the right kind of experience to be president 72 20 8 66 24 9 F. He has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president 77 14 9 81 12 8 G. He would bring needed change to Washington 77 18 5 68 24 7 H. He has the knowledge of world affairs it takes to serve effectively as president 79 11 9 63 25 12 I. He s very intelligent 90 4 6 90 6 5

J. He can be trusted in a crisis 84 7 9 77 12 11 K. He has a clear idea of where he wants to lead the nation 85 11 4 78 16 6 L. He says what he really thinks, even if it s not politically popular 85 11 4 76 17 7 M. He takes the concerns of New Hampshire voters seriously 83 10 7 86 9 5 16. Do you think George W. Bush would be able to keep the federal budget balanced and cut income taxes at the same time, or not? Yes No No opinion 12/15/99 Nat 38 55 7 12/15/99 NH 36 59 6 17. Are you better off or worse off financially now than you were four years ago? Better Worse Same (vol.) No opinion 12/15/99 Nat 61 20 19 * 12/15/99 NH 64 14 22 1 National trend: 8/27/97 52 27 21 1 6/8/97 53 26 20 1 1/15/97 52 26 20 1 10/13/96 Reg. 50 25 25 1 10/8/96 Like. 48 25 26 1 10/8/96 Reg. 48 26 25 1 9/4/96* Reg. 50 26 23 1 8/5/96* 47 29 23 1 3/17/96** 50 31 19 * 7/17/95** 48 31 20 1 *"three and a half years ago" **"three years ago" 19. (Asked of leaned Republicans nationally and Republican primary voters) Suppose your state holds a Republican primary or caucus for president in 2000 and the candidates are: (READ LIST). For whom would you vote - I'll read the list again: None/ Other Wouldn t No Bush Forbes McCain Bauer Keyes Hatch (vol.) (vol.) opin. 12/15/99 Nat 72 7 13 1 3 2 0 1 * 12/15/99 NH 39 10 40 1 5 * * * 3 National trend: 10/31/99 75 4 10 3 5 2 0 1 1 9/2/99** 60 6 5 2 3 1 * 2 2 8/8/99*** 54 4 4 1 2 1 * 4 7 3/4/99**** 52 4 2 1 2 NA * * 2 **Dole=15, Quayle=3, Buchanan=3 ***Dole=14, Quayle=3, Buchanan=3, Alexander < 0.5% ****Dole=25, Quayle=6, Buchanan=3, Kasich=2, Alexander=1, Smith < 0.5% 20. Do you support (Republican candidate) strongly, or not strongly? National: Strongly Not strongly No opinion George W. Bush 72 27 1 John McCain 57 43 0 New Hampshire: Strongly Not strongly No opinion George W. Bush 68 30 2 John McCain 74 22 3

21. (Asked of leaned Democrats nationally and Democratic primary voters in Hew Hampshire) Suppose your state holds a Democratic primary or caucus for president in 2000 and the candidates are Al Gore and Bill Bradley. For whom would you vote? Other Neither/ No Gore Bradley (vol.) Wouldn't (vol.) opin. 12/15/99 Nat 64 31 0 2 3 12/15/99 NH 45 48 * 3 4 National Trend: 10/31/99 67 29 * 1 3 9/2/99 69 24 * 3 4 8/15/99* 61 24 1 2 3 6/13/99 65 26 * 4 5 6/6/99** 56 19 0 2 4 3/14/99*** 58 21 * 2 2 *Beatty=9 **Jackson=19 ***Jackson=17 22. Do you support (Democratic candidate) strongly, or not strongly ----------Gore------------ ----------Bradley---------- Strongly Not No opin. Strongly Not No opin. 12/15/99 Nat 62 36 3 37 60 3 12/15/99 NH 68 31 1 64 34 2 25. As you may have heard, Bill Bradley has a medical condition that requires him to take medication for an occasional irregular heartbeat. Does this make you concerned about Bradley s physical fitness to serve as president, or do you think his condition is not that serious? Concerned about fitness Condition not No to serve as president that serious opin. 12/15/99 Nat 21 75 4 12/15/99 NH 11 87 2 ***END***