ELECTION 2018: Is There a Big Blue Wave Coming? Michael W. Traugott Center for Political Studies University of Michigan Wolverine Caucus September 25, 2018
General Outline of the Contest In the last few elections, party identification has come to play a bigger role in voting behavior. In both the United States and in Michigan, there are more self-described Democrats than Republicans. Broad contrasting themes of DRAIN THE SWAMP versus RESTORE NORMAL ORDER AND THE MIDDLE CLASS Important role of gender in the primaries, the general election, and partisanship Very likely Democrats capture the House; what happens in the Senate?
Historical Pattern of Midterm House Seat Losses
House: The Generic Ballot Question https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html
House: The Generic Ballot Question
The Impact of Polarization
The Impact of Polarization
House: The Impact of Gerrymandering
What Else Affects Midterm Elections? All models are wrong, but some models are useful. George Box Presidential approval Retrospective evaluations of the economy Structural factors: whose seats are at stake In a midterm election, the President s party ordinarily loses seats
Models Explaining Midterm Elections: Presidential Approval
Models Explaining Midterm Elections: Presidential Approval 41.4% https://stevenrattner.com/2018/08/morning-joe-charts-odds-are-high-of-blue-wave-in-house/
Factors Affecting Midterm Elections: Retirements https://stevenrattner.com/2018/08/morning-joe-charts-odds-are-high-of-blue-wave-in-house/
Factors Affecting Midterm Elections: A House Forecast https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
Factors Affecting Midterm Elections: The Economy 10 th Percentile 90 th Percentile 50 th Percentile Michigan Percentiles of the Population https://stevenrattner.com/2018/09/morning-joe-charts-trumps-labor-market-claims-debunked/
Factors Affecting Midterm Elections: The Economy Michigan Monthly Change in Personal Disposable Income in the Last Year https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/august-7-election-results/ Monthly Change in Personal Disposable Income in July by State
The Baseline for Elections https://medium.com/@pollsandvotes/trends-in-party-id-2004-2018-143a7fddde58
Another Measure of Dissatisfaction: Presidential Approval in the First Term http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/01/trumps-approval-ratings-so-far-are-unusually-stable-and-deeply-partisan/ft_18-08-01_trumpapproval_first-two-years/
Enthusiasm Gap in 2018 Campaign http://www.people-press.org/2018/06/20/2-the-2018-congressional-election/
Modeling Electoral Turnover August APSA panel of statistical modelers
Factors Affecting Midterm Elections: The Senate Tossup Seats At stake: 29 Democratic, 9 Republican Democratic Held FL-Nelson TN-Open MO-McCaskill ND-Heitkamp Republican Held AZ-Open NV-Heller TX-Cruz IN-Donnelly
What Lies Ahead? More deeply divided government than now, in a different way Congress: Lame duck session another Supreme Court nominee? New Congress: A lot of investigations in the Democratic House, maybe impeachment
What Does the Future Hold for the Parties? http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/
What Does the Future Hold for the Parties? http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/
What Does the Future Hold for the Parties? http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/
The Michigan Gubernatorial Race
The Michigan Senatorial Race