Anticipating the Future: Travel Behavior Implications of Five Socio-Demographic Trends Johanna Zmud May 2011
RAND Focus on Transportation Futures Research JZ-05/2011 2
5 Socio-Demographic Trends with Travel Behavior / Demand Implications 1. Increasing Proportion of Hispanic Households 2. Reversal of Shrinking Households 3. Aspirational Consumption and Auto Ownership 4. Ubiquitous Connectivity 5. Labor Force of the Future JZ-05/2011 3
1. Hispanic Share of Total Population Source: PewResearchCenter JZ-05/2011 4
Travel Demand Indicators 2009: Hispanics vs. Non-Hispanics Hispanic Non-Hispanic Drivers per Household 1.75 1.77 Vehicles per Households 1.64 1.94 Households with No Vehicle 15.1% 8.1% Vehicle Year >2005 15.1% 20.1% Workers per Household 1.12 1.07 Household Size 3.33 2.44 Source: 2009 NHTS JZ-05/2011 5
Travel Demand Indicators 2009 by Ethnicity and Immigration Status Hispanic Foreign Born US Born Non- Hispanic Drivers per Household 1.67 1.82 1.77 Vehicles per Households 1.48 1.84 1.94 Households w/ No Vehicle 18.0% 11.9% 8.1% Vehicle Year >2005 10.6% 20.0% 20.1% Workers per Household 1.12 1.15 1.07 Household Size 3.58 2.95 2.44 Source: 2009 NHTS JZ-05/2011 6
Household Trip Rates 2009 by Ethnicity and Immigration Status Foreign Born Hispanic US Born Non- Hispanic Trips per Household 14.72 14.48 9.1 Trips per Person 3.27 3.33 3.65 Public Transit Trips 8.3% 4.1% 3.9% Auto Trips 71.1% 83.7% 83.3% Source: 2009 NHTS JZ-05/2011 7
2. HH Size: Shrinking No More? Year 1970 3.14 1980 2.76 1990 2.63 2000 2.59 2008 2.62 Household Size Source: Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey JZ-05/2011 8
Leading Indicator of the Demographic Future: Today s Children 74.2 million persons under age 18 in 2010 23% of them are Hispanic Number of Hispanic children grew by 4.8 million Number of non-hispanic White children fell by 4.3 million Number of non-hispanic children fell by 2.9 million Source: Ethnicfacts, 2011 JZ-05/2011 9
Change in Child Population by Race and Ethnicity, 2000 2010 Non-Hispanic Millions Source: Ethnicfacts, 2011 JZ-05/2011 10
Children and Daily Trip Making: Hispanic vs. Non-Hispanic Hispanic Non-Hispanic With Children 19.23 15.29 Without Children 9.51 6.43 Source: 2009 NHTS JZ-05/2011 11
Interaction of Children and Parent Trip-Making One Adult Hispanic Two+ Adults Non-Hispanic One Adult Two+ Adults No Child 4.02 11.62 3.96 7.79 Youngest Child 0-5 13.82 18.37 10.80 14.09 Youngest Child 6-15 12.69 20.84 12.57 16.42 Youngest Child 16-21 9.01 19.93 11.00 15.26 Retired No children 3.44 9.77 3.15 7.33 Source: 2009 NHTS JZ-05/2011 12
Drivers of the Future: Percent of Drivers by Age by Race / Ethnicity JZ-05/2011 13
Social Context of Aging Women Race-Ethnicity HH Size Distribution of Women Ages > 65 (%) Woman is Driver (%) Woman is Nondriver (%) Hispanic of any race 1 20.5% 50.6% 49.4% 2 36.6% 60.1% 39.9% 3 17.3% 33.2% 66.8% 4+ 25.7% 20.3% 79.7% White, non-hispanic 1 36.0% 77.8% 22.2% 2 51.1% 81.1% 19.0% 3 8.4% 57.0% 43.0% 4+ 4.5% 47.8% 52.2% Source: McGuckin, et all, 2009, based on 2009 NHTS JZ-05/2011 14
3. Aspirational Consumption and Auto Ownership Worldwide rise in vehicle ownership from 800 million in 2002 to 2 billion in 2030 At $4,000 per capita GDP, auto ownership rises 2x per capita income US largest passenger vehicle market in the world Passenger vehicle outnumbering licensed drivers since 1972 JZ-05/2011 15
Vehicles, Drivers, and Population (in millions) Source: FHWA Highway Statistics JZ-05/2011 16
Households without Vehicles by Race/ Ethnicity JZ-05/2011 17
Challenge of Unlicensed Drivers New York Times estimated 4.5 million undocumented immigrants driving with license NuStats Study for AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety Six focus groups of recent Mexican immigrants in Los Angeles All but 2 drove at least 3 days per week Of 56 drivers, 45 admitted not having a license Choice of vehicle: disposable JZ-05/2011 18
4. Ubiquitous Connectivity Household % Year Percent Landline Only 2005 34.4 2008 17.4 Wireless Only 2005 7.3 2008 20.2 Broadband 2006 35.0 2012 77.0 Sources: National Health Information Survey, Garner Research JZ-05/2011 19
Generational Lens on ICT Use ICT Gen Y (18-29 Gen X (30-49) Older Boomers (55-65) Seniors (66+) Internet use (online) 93% 81% 70% 38% Own cell phone / Blackberry 93% 89% 82% 57% Desktop computer 53% 67% 63% 37% Laptop computer 66% 52% 40% 18% Access internet wirelessly 81% 63% 44% 17% Use social networking sites 72% 40% Use Twitters/ status update 31% 22% 9% 4% Look for health info online 72% 71% 46% Source: Pew Research Center JZ-05/2011 20
Impact of ICT and Travel Four possible effects: Substitution: decrease in travel demand Complementarity: generation of new trips Modification: change of temporal / spatial characteristics of travel Neutrality: no impact Research to date: Little substitution and more support for complementarity Most research in 1990s just as availability and use of new technologies were changing Source: Nobis, Lenz 2009 JZ-05/2011 21
Telecommute Trends Census Date Number of Workers Worked at Home Percent 1970 76,852,389 2,685,144 3.5 1980 96,617,296 2,179,863 2.3 1990 115,070,274 3,406,025 3.0 2000 128,279,228 4,184,223 3.3 2005-2009 est. 138,541,405 5,575,316 4.2 Source: US Bureau of Census JZ-05/2011 22
Small Proportion of Travel for Work Average Annual PMT per HH Trip Purpose 1983 1990 1995 2001 All Purposes 22,802 30,316 34,459 35,244 To / From Work Share 20% 19% 22% 19% Shopping Share 11% 11% 14% 14% All Other 69% 70% 64% 67% Source: ORNL, 2008 JZ-05/2011 23
5. Labor Force of the Future Age Groups 2005 2050 Population (in millions) 296 438 Children (17 and younger) 25% 23% Working Age (18-64) 63% 58% Retiree Age 12% 19% JZ-05/2011 24
Increasing Share of Hispanic Workers Working Age Population (in millions) Source: PewResearchCenter JZ-05/2011 25
Occupation of Employed Persons Occupation Total White Hispanic Management, Professional 37.2 37.9 18.9 Service 17.7 16.6 26.4 Sales 24.2 24.1 21.1 Natural Resources, Construction, Maintenance Production, Transportation, Material Moving 9.4 10.2 16.4 11.6 11.3 17.1 Source: Current Population Survey, 2010 JZ-05/2011 26
Conclusions 56% Hispanic share of US population growth in the past decade will have spill over effects on many sectors, including transportation Hispanics differ from non-hispanics in key indicators relating to travel behavior and resultant travel demand Predictions that slowing population growth or saturation of auto ownership would mitigate VMT growth do not consider socio-demographic dynamics Transportation data programs, like National Household Travel Survey, critical to ensuring good policy and planning decisions in the future JZ-05/2011 27
Opportunities for Research Producing detailed national and regional projections of VMT growth by race / ethnicity Filling data gaps related to significant policy issues: traffic safety, urban commuting, vehicle preferences and use, under conditions of rapid demographic change Increasing understanding of relationship between ICT use and travel behavior (ICT as a travel mode) JZ-05/2011 28