HOW MUCH OF THE DROP IN CRIME CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO CHANGES IN REPEAT VICTIMISATION TRENDS? CRIME USERS SURVEY CONFERENCE DAINIS IGNATANS, LLB (Hons.), MA Assistant Lecturer and Doctoral Researcher in Criminology University of Kent Contact e-mail: D.Ignatans-48@kent.ac.uk Supervisors: Prof Roger Matthews, Prof Chris Hale
CORE IDEA
THE DROP IN CRIME *Victimisation ratio per 100.000 households based on British Crime Survey findings
THE DROP IN CRIME *Victimisation ratio per 100.000 persons (taking into account differences in average household size)
THE CHANGES IN VICTIMISATION *Mean victimisation incidence in a victimised household
THE CHANGES IN VICTIMISATION *Mean victimisation incidence in a household victimised multiple times
- Can the changes in crime rates in the last 3 decades be attributed mostly to changes in households victimised multiple times? THE QUESTIONS - How much of the drop in crime can be attributed to the decrease in multiple victimisation incidents?
THE ANALYSIS
PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN VICTIMISATION 1982-1994 1994-2012 All Crimes 24-63 Property Crimes 22-65 Bike Theft 47-50 Damage to Vehicle 19-62 Theft from the Vehicle 32-76 Theft of Vehicle 25-88 Burglary 36-73 Attempted Burglary 40-78 Break-in with Damage 9-43 Damage to Personal Items -16-58 Damage to Home 0-59 Theft from Outside Home 14-57 Theft from Home -3-59 Crimes in Previous Home 53-70 Other Theft of Personal Belongings 8-71 Personal Crimes 38-52 Attempted Theft from the Person 31-50 Theft from the Person 15-44 Sexual Offences 79-71 Violence 22-57 Threat of Violence 48-48
VICTIMISATION SPREAD *Percentage of households reporting one-off victimisation
VICTIMISATION SPREAD *Percentage of households reporting multiple victimisation incidents
CORRELATION BETWEEN THE TWO *Cross comparison between percentage change in crime and percentage change in households victimised once between 1982 and 1994
CORRELATION BETWEEN THE TWO *Cross comparison between percentage drop in crime and percentage change in households victimised once between 1994 and 2012
CORRELATION BETWEEN THE TWO *Cross comparison between percentage drop in crime and percentage change in households victimised once between 1994 and 2012 (with crimes with lowest share removed)
CRIME CONCENTRATION *Crime ratio per 100.000 households in households victimised once
CRIME CONCENTRATION *Crime ratio per 100.000 households in households victimised multiple times
EXTENT OF CONCENTRATION *Cross comparison between percentage drop in crime and percentage change in crime in multiple victimisation households between 1994 and 2012
VICTIMISATION REPORTING *Percentage of households reporting being victimised
VICTIMISATION SHARE *Percentages of total crime share attributed to each victimisation group
VICTIMISATION CHANGES *Percentage change in crimes (year after) in each victimisation group
ATTRIBUTION OF THE CHANGES *Attribution of percentage changes (year after) to each victimisation group (using base value of 100%)
THE RESULT
ATTRIBUTION OF THE CRIME DROP *Amount of changes in crimes (year after) attributed to single and multiple victimisation groups in 100.000 population
--Yes. Can The the changes in crime rates in can the be last 3 decades attributed be mostly attributed to the mostly changes to changes in the in households amount of households victimised multiple victimised times? multiple times. THE FINDINGS -How Nearly much all of of the the drop in in crime in can the be last attributed 30 years has to the happened decrease exclusively in multiple due to the victimisation reduction in multiple incidents? victimisation incidents.
THANK YOU! CRIME USERS SURVEY CONFERENCE DAINIS IGNATANS, LLB (Hons.), MA Assistant Lecturer and Doctoral Researcher in Criminology University of Kent Contact e-mail: D.Ignatans-48@kent.ac.uk Supervisors: Prof Roger Matthews, Prof Chris Hale