Migrations and work: the demographic perspective Europe and Africa: facing each other, linked by the Mediterranean, one that has the absolute need to export labour in massive amounts and the other the need to import labour in moderate quantities by Antonio Golini Presidente del Consiglio italiano per i rifugiati (CIR) The absolute majority of migrations was and is due to the search for a job to assure themselves and their family sources of subsistence and/or social advancement 1. Migrations and work, two closely related terms in the history of mankind. The absolute majority of migrations was and is due to the search for a job to assure themselves and their family sources of subsistence and/or social advancement. If we refer only to the history of the last two centuries, it is worth keeping in mind and emphasising how Europe has been an absolute protagonist for both phenomena. On the one hand, the industrial revolution was born and developed in Europe and, on the other, it had a growing and successful control over premature death starting with Jenner while effective and widespread birth control came much later. This led to great local and national demographic surpluses to distribute great opportunities, which our continent willingly or forcefully benefitted as repeatedly emphasised. The results were intense industrialisation that absorbed a great deal of workers, also leading to violent urbanisation, and new worlds to populate and new colonies to be exploited. This gave rise to huge territorial movement of people, both within each State and among States and continents. These movements allowed for dynamic adjustments between populations and resources and contributed to enable extraordinary growth in the population, both at global level (reaching 7.6 billion people according to the latest evaluations of the United Nations) and at the local level, particularly for China and India, 20
the two billionaire countries with a population estimated respectively, at 1.4 and 1.3 billion people. In short, in the last two hundred years of demographic, industrial and economic growth and urbanisation, internal and international migrations have nourished each other, creating a virtuous and positive circle, even in the presence of great tragedies, especially through wars and intolerable exploitation, in particular, but not exclusively, through the colonies. Although the great demographic growth has currently slowed down, the fact that the world s population has increased so much, reaching the present of about 83 million people every year (compared to the peak of 86 million at the end of the 1980s), almost all (95%) in the less developed countries, as a result of the demographic accumulation of the past (for which there is now a large amount of population in reproductive age) and the reduction in mortality (for which each generation lives longer). The aspect that most characterised the economic development of recent times is the reduced growth in employment since all the technological innovation is mainly labour saving 2. If the population growth has reduced dramatically almost everywhere nowadays, the labour-intensive economic growth has not dropped proportionally, such as that which has allowed Europe and the rest of the world to absorb the widespread growth in population in the last two centuries. In fact, the aspect that most characterised the economic development of recent times, particularly but not exclusively in the Western world, is the reduced growth in employment, in both the industry and service sectors, since all the technological innovation is mainly labour saving, in the sense that it tends to reduce labour in all stages of production. Significant environmental concerns are added to this sharp and marked trend, practically almost everywhere in the world, which reduce the production of goods and services, based on the firm and justified belief that planet Earth cannot withstand production for long as has occurred in the past decades, especially in the developed world, together with an intense and widespread waste accumulation. 3. For some time now and it will remain so for at least a few decades to come Africa (in particular sub-saharan Africa) has been the continent with the strongest and inevitable demographic growth as its fertility rate, despite decreased, remains very 21
high 4.7 children per woman and thus, enough to ensure sustained population growth, while Europe continues to be the continent with the lowest fertility rate with an average of 1.6 children per woman which, without, not only causes a reduction in population (2.1 children per woman is the value required to ensure a steady population), but also an inevitable and intense ageing trend. Hence, these continents face one another across the Mediterranean one having the absolute need to export labour in large quantities and the other, to import labour in moderate quantities. The demographic and economic issue of sub-saharan Africa has been strongly subject to the attention of many scholars for years, including the undersigned, precisely due to its extraordinary importance. Quite recently, E. Sacerdoti, official of the International Monetary Fund from 1978 to 2009 and Mission Head in 15 countries of Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East) has reiterated the aforesaid with elements following below and such as to clear any possible uncertainty. Therefore, there is no doubt that economic and occupational development in African countries (especially in sub-saharan countries) is an issue that 22
should be of interest to Europe as a whole, and not just that concerning the arrivals of migrants and refugees. It is precisely this reason why Europe must have the utmost interest in fostering peace in the Middle East and everywhere in Africa. It is however clear that this purpose, essential from many points of view, cannot be pursued by a single country and therefore by Italy alone as it does not have the strength, starting from the political one. Italy should support the comprehensive activation and implementation of the Union for the Mediterranean - although an undoubtedly complicated task; a French initiative established a few years ago which 49 countries enthusiastically took part in. However, this initiative lost all its propulsive strength until it withered completely. A strongly operational Union for the Mediterranean could have an extraordinarily positive role from several perspectives. Figure 1. Percentage of migrants from sub-saharan Africa (SSA) to OECD countries and fraction of the population with SSA origins 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 forecast forecast forecast forecast percentage of OECD migrants to countries in relation to the SSA population part of the OECD population with SSA country origins Source: Sacerdoti E., Flussi migratori: ridurli si può, fermarli è impossibile (Migratory flows: reducing them is possible, stopping them is not), lavoce.info, Tuesday 27 June 2017 23
Figure 2. Actual and expected variation in the population aged 15 to 64 years old in the five year periods from 1985-1990 to 2045-50 250 200 150 100 50 0-50 1995-1990 1995-2000 2005-10 2015-20 2025-30 2035-40 2045-50 forecast forecast forecast forecast Rest of the world SSA countries OECD countries Source: Sacerdoti E., Flussi migratori: ridurli si può, fermarli è impossibile, (Migratory flows: reducing them is possible, stopping them is not), lavoce.info, Tuesday 27 June 2017 4. As has been said, demographics in Europe, particularly western and southern, would simultaneously be in significant or strong decline without migration, therefore making an absolute necessity, as shown by the figures concerning Italy in the table below. The Italian population estimated at 2015 and expected in 2050 by the UN Populations Division, with and without foreign Age 2015 2050 without 2050 with Variation 2050-2015 without Variazione 2050-2015 with 0-19 years old 10.956 8.559 9.673-2.397-1.283 20-64 35.242 23.476 32.866-11.766-2.376 65 and over 13.305 18.767 19.074 + 5.462 + 5.769 Total 59.503 50.802 61.613-8.701 + 2.110 Souce: own data processing: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, DVD Edition 24
Without foreign, the working-age population in Italy between 20 and 65 years old would drop by 11.7 million people between 2015 and 2050-33% - while simultaneously, the elderly and senile population would grow by 18.7 million to 37% of the total; there would be 8 people aged 65 years and over for every 10 people in working age. With, instead, the working-age population would drop by only 2.4 million people, while those aged over 65 would be 31% of the total, having 5.8 people aged 65 years and over for every 10 in working age. The situation will still remain burdensome, but much less than in the scenario with no. Therefore, is necessary and convenient for our country, but in any case, it cannot fill the large gaps created by its prolonged and very low fertility rate. Raising the retirement age has therefore been, and remains, a necessity; without this and without, we would have a very strong reduction in contributors and therefore in social security contributions, hence a collapse in social benefits, starting with pensions, and in the economy in general. All the aforementioned concerns the macro profile, but for our country, it seems indispensable to also consider a different social model, which in life and family solidarity, as well as in social terms that must be widespread and generalised, requires a different and greater commitment of men which already occurs in younger generations that is quite similar to that which women have always implemented, especially within the family. 25
The world population approaching 10 billion: a possible goal after 2050 The UN s latest world population and growth forecast bulletin - World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision highlights how the Earth is currently populated by 7.6 billion people. This figure is expected to grow, at current rates, up to 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 in 2050 and 11.2 in 2100. These forecasts based on the average growth of 83 million people a year, as recorded today are calculated considering a level of decreasing fertility in the coming years. China and India confirm to be the most populous countries, respectively with 1.4 and 1.3 billion people, but the surpass of the Indian colossus over the Chinese one is nearing and is expected to occur in 2024. Among the ten countries with the largest number of inhabitants, the fastest growing country is Nigeria, currently seventh, which at these rates will become the third World country by population by 2050, also surpassing the US. 95% of the annual population growth is concentrated in the less developed countries. Not by chance, the group of 47 countries with the lowest growth index continues to have the highest fertility rate, equal to 4.3 children per woman, with an annual growth in population of 2.4%. Within the next thirty years, half of the world population growth will be concentrated in ten countries: India, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, the U.S.A., Uganda, Indonesia and Egypt. The report also lists other curious details: 80% of the population lives in the less developed regions, compared to 70% at the beginning of the century and by 2050, this figure will rise to 90% the overall fertility rate, which is currently 2.5 children per woman, will drop to 2.2 in 2045-2050 and already 83 countries register a value lower than the minimum necessary to keep the population level unchanged (2.1 children per woman) life expectancy has increased in the last 15 years, going from 65 years of age for men and 69 for women, to the current figure of 69 years for men and 73 for women; however, there still exists a strong disparity between the 10 countries for which the combined expectation of men and women exceeds 82 years of age (among them Italy) and the 8 countries for which the same figure is under 55 years old (all located in the African continent). 26