Latvia s Political Survey 2014 All waves (July - November) Summary Report

Latvia s Political Survey 2014 All waves (July - November) Summary Report Ryo NAKAI, Dr. Assistant Professor, Rikkyo University, Japan nakai[at]rikkyo.ac.jp 7 Dec, 2014 1

Technical Information Researcher Ryo NAKAI Polltaker Research centre SKDS (Director: Arnis KAKTIŅŠ) General body Residents of Latvia aged from 15 to 74 years old. Sample size 521 respondents Sampling method Stratified random sampling Stratification criteria Administrative territories Respondent selection principles Random route method first birthday rule. Research Method Face-to face interviews (PAPI), at the places of residence of respondents. Geographical coverage All Latvia s regions (over 120 sampling points) Date of Interview July 18, 2014 November 23, 2014. Questionnaires by waves Q0 [date] Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q Q7 Q8 Q Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q1 Q17 Q18 Q1 Q20 Q21 Q21 Q23 1 st wave July 2 nd wave August 3 rd wave September 4 th wave October 5 th wave November demographic parameters 2

Results Q1 - Q4 I will read to you several statements. Please tell me about each of them do you totally agree, rather agree, neither agree nor disagree, rather disagree or totally disagree with the following statement Q1 Large differences in people s incomes are acceptable to properly reward differences in talents and efforts N / % July August September October November All waves Totally agree 123 154 122 138 3 30 11.75% 14.71% 11.84% 13.11% 8.3% 12.07% Rather agree 283 335 323 333 23 157 27.03% 32.00% 31.3% 31.2% 28.12% 30.02% Neither agree nor disagree 21 214 17 1 25 1073 20.3% 20.44% 17.38% 18.0% 25.43% 20.5% Rather disagree 218 17 21 207 211 1034 20.82% 17.10% 21.2% 1.% 20.25%% 1.81% Totally disagree 11 113 130 13 134 32 11.37% 88 8.40% 10.7% 52 4.7% 12.2% 57 5.53% 12.2% 40 3.80% 12.8% 4 4.41% Total 1047 1047 1030 1053 1042 12.11% 283 5.42% 521 Q2 Schools must teach children only in Latvian language N / % July August September October November All waves Totally agree 205 254 13 257 257 11 1.58% 24.2% 18.74% 24.41% 24.% 22.34% Rather agree 207 17 12 13 201 72 1.77% 15.5% 18.4% 18.33% 1.2% 18.2% Neither agree nor disagree 17 17 138 143 14 71 15.5% 15.5% 13.40% 13.58% 14.01% 14.58% Rather disagree 182 202 242 203 204 1033 17.38% 1.2% 23.50% 1.28% 1.58% 1.7% Totally disagree 254 223 244 241 21 1181 24.2% 32 3.0% 21.30% 22 2.10% 23.% 21 2.04% 22.8% 1 1.52% 21.02% 15 1.44% Total 1047 1047 1030 1053 1042 22.3% 10 2.03% 521 Q3 Social benefit, service, and unemployment insurance make people lazy N / % July August September October November All waves Totally agree 18 11 175 124 143 771 1.05% 15.38% 1.% 11.78% 13.72% 14.77% Rather agree 22 228 231 21 23 1143 21.5% 21.78% 22.43% 20.80% 22.4% 21.0% Neither agree nor disagree 213 228 1 24 225 1111 20.34% 21.78% 1.32% 23.3% 21.5% 21.2% Rather disagree 232 22 22 245 214 114 22.1% 21.5% 22.23% 23.27% 20.54% 21.% Totally disagree 15 14 157 1 181 827 14.0% 52 4.7% 15.% 40 3.82% 15.24% 3 3.7% 1.05% 50 4.75% 17.37% 40 3.84% Total 1047 1047 1030 1053 1042 15.85% 221 4.23% 521 3

Q4 The Russian state is a threat to the peace and security of Latvia N / % July August September October November All waves Totally agree 142 13 200 155 17 8 13.5% 18.43% 1.42% 14.72% 1.8% 1.5% Rather agree 20 1 10 14 22 1015 1.% 18.72% 18.45% 18.42% 21.% 1.45% Neither agree nor disagree 18 174 13 17 18 834 17.77% 1.2% 13.50% 15.8% 1.12% 15.8% Rather disagree 155 1 177 175 158 834 14.80% 1.14% 17.18% 1.2% 15.1% 15.8% Totally disagree 27 253 271 21 258 1352 2.5% 7 7.2% 24.1% 2 5.2% 2.31% 53 5.15% 27.4% 71.74% 24.7% 5 5.37% Total 1047 1047 1030 1053 1042 25.1% 318.0% 521 Q5 Which of these terms best describes how you usually think of yourself? N / % July August September October November All waves Own city, locality inhabitants 310 341 321 333 30 114 Own regions inhabitants (ex. Kurzeme, Latgale etc.) Latvian Russian Baltic Russian, or Russian Latvian Ukrainian Do not know No Answer 2.1% 81 7.74% 380 3.2% 117 11.17% 80 7.4% 8 0.7% 41 3.2% 30 2.87% 32.57% 0 8.0% 380 3.2%.17% 72.88% 0.57% 30 2.87% 32 3.0% 31.17% 8 8.35% 30 37.8% 4.13% 83 8.0% 0.58% 32 3.11% 18 1.75% 31.2% 7 7.50% 3 37.8% 102.% 83 7.88% 0.57% 2 2.75% 22 2.0% 2.5% 8 8.25% 427 40.8% 105 10.08% 2 5.5% 8 0.77% 2 2.50% 1 1.82% Total 1047 1047 1030 1053 1042 30.3% 422 8.0% 17 37.8% 514.85% 380 7.28% 34 0.5% 158 3.03% 121 2.32% 521 Q How proud are you to be Latvia inhabitant? N / % July August September October November All waves Very proud 237 22 280 271 27 1347 22.4% 25.02% 27.18% 25.74% 28.50% 25.81% Quite proud 42 422 451 444 44 212 40.7% 40.31% 43.7% 42.17% 42.80% 42.00% Not very proud 210 210 17 210 10 20.0% 20.0% 17.38% 1.4% 18.23% 1.14% Not at all proud 81 80 57 3 3 344 7.74% 7.4% 5.53% 5.8%.05%.5% No Answer 0 73 3 5 4 337 8.0%.7%.12%.17% 4.41%.4% Total 1047 1047 1030 1053 1042 521 4

Q7 On an average weekday, how much time in total, do you spend reading newspapers? August September October All Waves No time at all 40 435 48 1381 43.4% 42.23% 4.15% 44.12% Less than 1/2 hours 321 33 334 4 30.% 32.1% 31.72% 31.7% 1/2 hours to 1 hour 171 175 157 503 1.33% 1.% 14.1% 1.07% More than 1 hour up to 2 hours 55 45 42 142 5.25% 4.37% 3.% 4.54% More than 2 hours up to 3 hours 7 1 0.57% 0.8% 0.57% 0.1% More than 3 hours 4 2 2 8 0.38% 30 2.87% 0.1% 27 2.2% 0.1% 2 2.47% Total 1047 1030 1053 0.2% 83 2.5% 3130 Q8 On an average weekday, how much time in total, do you spend reading social networking service? August September October All Waves No time at all 34 28 33 80 33.05% 28.3% 31.1% 31.31% Less than 1/2 hours 171 14 182 547 1.33% 18.83% 17.28% 17.48% 1/2 hours to 1 hour 13 253 21 707 18.43% 24.5% 24.7% 22.5% More than 1 hour up to 2 hours 15 13 141 445 15.7% 13.50% 13.3% 14.22% More than 2 hours up to 3 hours 3 2 14.02%.70% 5.8%.20% More than 3 hours 41 4 40 130 3.2% 8.4% 4.7% 28 2.72% 3.80% 31 2.4% Total 1047 1030 1053 4.15% 127 4.0% 3130 Q Which newspaper do you read most frequently? August September October All Waves Diena 72 8 52 12.88%.0% 4.4%.13% Latvijas Avīze 5 48 48 155 5.7% 4.% 4.5% 4.5% Neatkarīga Rīta Avīze 17 22 28 7 1.2% 2.14% 2.% 2.14% Vesti Segodnya (Вести сегодня) 1 85 275 8.%.1% 8.07% 8.7% Dienas Bizness 21 0.57% 0.58% 0.85% 0.7% Bizness&Baltija (Бизнес&Балтия) 11 3 3 17 1.05% 0.2% 0.28% 0.54% Other 25 31 325 3 28.18% 30.7% 30.8% 30.00% I do not read newspapers at all 41 42 477 137 44.03% 35 3.34% 41.5% 3 3.50% 45.30% 2 2.47% Total 1047 1030 1053 43.7% 7 3.10% 3130 5

Q10 Which SNS do you use most frequently? August September October All Waves Facebook 201 18 1 58 1.20% 18.0% 18.0% 18.72% Draugiem 281 274 2 824 2.84% 2.0% 25.55% 2.33% Odnoklassniki (Одноклассники) 8 88 1 25 8.21% 8.54% 8.4% 8.47% VKontakte (ВКонтакте) 1 14 15 48 1.81% 1.3% 1.42% 1.53% Twitter 30 2 2 88 2.87% 2.82% 2.75% 2.81% LinkedIn 2 2 3 7 0.1% 0.1% 0.28% 0.22% Other SNSs 50 8 80 21 4.78% 8.35% 7.0%.0% I do not watch the SNS 353 305 338 33.72% 2.1% 32.10% 31.82% 25 4 2 100 2.3% 4.47% 2.75% 3.1% Total 1047 1030 1053 3130 Show card Q11/12 Q11. What do you think are the two most important problem facing Latvia today? (MAX. 2 ANSWERS POSSIBLE) August September October All Waves Crime and Terrorism 54 50 47 151 2.71% 2.51% 2.31% 2.51% Public transport 1 8 21 45 0.80% 0.40% 1.03% 0.75% Rising prices 305 325 303 33 15.31% 1.30% 14.0% 15.50% Taxation 27 254 28 810 13.40% 12.74% 14.21% 13.4% Unemployment 438 430 433 1301 21.% 21.5% 21.2% 21.1% National Security and Foreign Affairs 154 15 111 430 7.73% 8.27% 5.4% 7.14% Energy 52 4 0 158 2.1% 2.31% 2.5% 2.2% Immigration 127 124 151 402.38%.22% 7.42%.8% Health care 301 311 31 37 15.11% 15.0% 15.8% 15.5% Pensions 128 135 13 3.43%.77%.%.3% Education 48 57 7 181 2.41% 2.8% 3.74% 3.01% Language 3 48 40 127 1.% 2.41% 1.7% 2.11% Others 37 28 35 100 1.8% 2 1.31% 1.40% 13 0.5% 1.72% 13 0.4% Total 12 14 2034 1.% 52 0.8% 020

Q12. What do you think are the two most important issues to you today? (MAX. 2 ANSWERS POSSIBLE) August September October All Waves Crime and Terrorism 22 21 13 5 1.1% 1.10% 0.58% 0.3% Public transport 24 18 2 8 1.2% 0.5% 1.17% 1.12% Rising prices 425 40 428 125 22.32% 21.3% 1.22% 20.80% Taxation 223 200 43 1 11.71% 10.52% 22.14% 15.14% Unemployment 24 14 248 88 12.2% 10.21% 11.14% 11.37% National Security and Foreign Affairs 4 80 50 14 3.3% 4.21% 2.25% 3.21% Energy 33 2 40 102 1.73% 1.53% 1.80% 1.% Immigration 31 30 3 100 1.3% 1.58% 1.75% 1.5% Health care 347 32 384 1123 18.22% 20.2% 17.24% 18.5% Pensions 210 225 238 73 11.03% 11.84% 10.% 11.12% Education 121 142 120 382.3% 7.47% 5.3%.31% Language 41 5 53 150 2.15% 2.5% 2.38% 2.48% Others 78 7 70 227 4.10% 3 2.05% 4.1% 2 1.53% 3.14% 25 1.12% Total 104 101 2247 3.75% 3 1.54% 052 Q13 How interested would you say you are in politics? August September October All Waves Very interested 57 5.44% 5 5.44% 5 5.32% 1 5.40% Quite interested 313 2.8% 301 2.22% 30 2.34% 23 2.4% Hardly interested 478 45.5% 470 45.3% 45 43.5% 1407 44.5% Not at all interested 173 18 222 584 1.52% Don t know / No Answer 2 2.48% 18.35% 14 1.3% 21.08% 7 0.% Total 1047 1030 1053 18.% 47 1.50% 3130 7

Show card P2A Q14 (P2A in original questionnaire) If LR Saeima election will be held tomorrow, for which political party or alliance will you vote? August September October November All Waves 1 173 185 207 731 Harmony Socialdemocratic Party 15.85% 1.80% 17.57% 1.87% 17.52% 131 133 120 101 485 Party Unity National Alliance All for Latvia! For Fatherland and Freedom/LNNK Green and Farmers Union Russian Union of Latvia For Latvia from the Heart Party Union for Latvia For Latvia s Development Regional Alliance of Latvia New Conservative Party Other Don t know / No Answer Don t participate in elections. 12.51% 78 7.45% 115 10.8% 0.8% 2 2.77% 0.8% 12 1.15% 0.8% 2 0.1% 7 0.7% 17 17.10% 301 28.75% 12.1% 83 8.0% 4.13% 0.87% 73 7.0% 0.87% 8 0.78% 21 2.04% 4 0.3% 10 0.7% 142 13.7% 271 2.31% 11.40% 83 7.88% 12 11.7% 10 0.5% 4 4.37% 0.57% 0.57% 55 5.22% 0.57% 1 0.0% 4 8.3% 315 2.1%.% 118 11.32% 147 14.11% 0.8% 54 5.18% 8 0.77% 5 0.48% 5 5.37% 3 0.2% 1 0.10% 88 8.45% 245 23.51% Total 1047 1030 1053 1042 11.3% 32 8.8% 482 11.55% 37 0.8% 202 4.84% 32 0.77% 31 0.74% 14 3.38% 15 0.3% 1 0.4% 503 12.0% 1132 27.13% 4172 (One-shot questions for August omnibus [2 nd wave]) Q15 Q1 Please tell me on a score of 0-10 how much you personally trust each of the institutions. 0 means you do not trust an institution at all, and 10 means you have complete trust: Q15 United Nations 0 Not trust at all 100.55% 1 27 2.58% 2 50 4.78% 3 81 7.74% 4 8 8.21% 5 18 18.05% 8 8.50% 7 100.55% 8 77 7.35% 41 3.2% 10 Complete trust 45 4.30% No Answer 12 15.47% Total 1047 8

Q1 European Parliament 0 Not trust at all.17% 1 4 4.3% 2 50 4.78% 3 117 11.17% 4 4 8.8% 5 233 22.25%.4% 7 7.2% 8.30% 20 1.1% 10 Complete trust 31 2.% No Answer 8.3% Total 1047 Q17 Saeima (Latvia s national parliament) 0 Not trust at all 14 13.4% 1 8.4% 2 100.55% 3 153 14.1% 4 130 12.42% 5 180 17.1% 74 7.07% 7 5.21% 8 21 2.01% 17 1.2% 10 Complete trust 17 1.2% No Answer 7 7.2% Total 1047 Q18 City / local parliament 0 Not trust at all 82 7.83% 1 28 2.7% 2 27 2.58% 3 77 7.35% 4.17% 5 232 22.1% 124 11.84% 7 135 12.8% 8 7.2% 5 5.35% 10 Complete trust 43 4.11% No Answer 50 4.78% Total 1047

Q1 Noncitizen Congress 0 Not trust at all 254 24.2% 1 54 5.1% 2 37 3.53% 3 44 4.20% 4 38 3.3% 5 77 7.35% 17 1.2% 7 2 2.48% 8 27 2.58% 5 0.48% 10 Complete trust 14 1.34% No Answer 454 43.3% Total 1047 (One-shot questions for September omnibus [3 rd wave]) Q20 Who do you think is mostly to blame for the escalation of conflict in Ukraine? The government of Russian Federation 27 28.83% The government of Ukraine 138 3.40% Pro-Russian activists in Ukraine 4.13% Ukrainian hardline nationalist 78 7.57% The European Union 15 1.4% NATO 27 2.2% Western European countries (e.g. Germany, France, etc.) 5 0.4% The United States 127 12.33% Others 20 1.4% I do not want to answer this question 101.81% Don t know 128 12.43% Total 1030 Q21 Who do you think is mostly to blame for the origin of conflict in Ukraine? The government of Russian Federation 283 27.48% The government of Ukraine 115 11.17% Pro-Russian activists in Ukraine 2 8.3% Ukrainian hardline nationalist 77 7.48% The European Union 15 1.4% NATO 30 2.1% Western European countries (e.g. Germany, France, etc.) 5 0.4% The United States 153 14.85% Others 13 1.2% I do not want to answer this question 103 10.00% Don t know 144 13.8% Total 1030 10

(One-shot questions for October omnibus [4 th wave]) Q22 Saeima s election was held in 4th October. What was the most important information source for you when you update information on politics. (MAX. 2 ANSWERS POSSIBLE) Television or radio programs 57 34.57% Newspaper or journal articles 150.15% Internet or SNS articles 23 1.04% Political advertisements on televisions or radios 85 5.18% Political advertisements on newspapers or journals 27 1.5% Political advertisements on internet site or SNS 1 3.72% Conversations with members of family, relatives, or 224 13.% friends Conversations with colleagues, managers, or clients in 4 3.0% workplace. Conversations with neighbors 42 2.5% Other sources 42 2.5% No Answer 115 7.01% Total 140 Q23 If you voted, supported, or sympathized to a specific political party on recent Saeimas election, please tell me the main reasons why you chose exactly this party? (MAX. 2 ANSWERS POSSIBLE) They represent my economic interests (for example, tax, 14 13.23% employment, pension, etc) They represent interests of my ethnic group (for 157 10.71% example, Latvians, Russian, etc.) They represent our regional interests (for example, 3 4.30% Vidzeme, Kurzeme, Zemgale, Latgale, Rīga) They are trustable 15 13.30% They are not dirty * 4.71% They are new political force 77 5.25% They have good politicians 147 10.03% They have good Prime Minister candidate 8 4.4% My family, friend, or colleague asked me to do so 25 1.71% Other reason 58 3.% I did not vote, support, or sympathize any political 32 24.% parties. No Answer 51 3.48% Total 14 * sasmērējušies in Latvian 11

Sociodemographic parameters (all waves) D1 Gender Male 22 44.05% Female 220 55.5% Total 521 (Ministry of Interior, registered population [Feb. 2014] / Male 47.7%, Female 52.3%) D2 Age (shortened) 15-24 810 15.52% 25-34 73 18.4% 35-44 81 17.07% 45-54 54 18.28% 55-74 151 30.48% Total 521 (Ministry of Interior, registered population [Feb. 2014] / 15-24: 14.8%, 25-34: 1.%, 35-44: 18.1%, 45-54: 18.5%, 55-74: 28.8%) D2A Marital status Married / Live with partner 2840 54.42% Divorced / Separated 732 14.03% Unmarried 117 22.3% Widowed 480.20% Total 521 D3 Number of household members 1 4 18.18% 2 101 30.8% 3 1285 24.2% 4 3 17.% 5 31.05% 8 1.71% 7 32 0.1% 8 7 0.13% 0 0.00% 10 0 0.00% 11 1 0.02% Total 521 12

D3A Children aged under 18 Yes 133 37.04% No 3277 2.7% DK/NA 0.17% Total 521 D4 Education No education 32 0.1% Primary / Secondary uncompleted 77 14.3% Secondary 1201 23.01% Professional or vocational secondary 1803 34.55% Tertiary education 1404 2.0% Total 521 D5 Nationality (lv: Tautība) Latvian 3125 5.88% Russian 142 31.4% Others 452 8.% Total 521 (Ministry of Interior, registered population [Feb. 2014] / Latvian: 58.7%, Non-Latvian: 41.3%) D5A Language spoken in family Latvian 3151 0.38% Russian 2023 38.7% Other 45 0.8% Total 521 D Citizenship of the Republic of Latvia (lv:pilsonība) Have 4448 85.23% Don t have 771 14.77% Total 521 D7 Sector of work Public sector (national and regional) 30 17.82% Private sector 2232 42.77% Don t work 2057 3.41% Other 0 0.00% DK/NA 0 0.00% Total 521 13

D8 Occupation Manager, senior or middle level 235 4.50% Specialist or clerk, for non-physical work 1408 2.8% Laborer, for physical work 125 24.12% Farmer (with own farm) 8 1.88% Self-employed 12 3.10% Pensioner 1017 1.4% Student 43 8.41% House-worker / parental leave 223 4.27% Unemployed 378 7.24% Total 521 D Average monthly income level per one family member (Euro, shortened) Under 150 euro 81 17.07% 151-220 euro 48 18.17% 221-20 euro 78 15.0% 21-30 euro 75 14.54% 31-430 euro 35.88% over 430 euro 710 13.0% DK 7 14.8% Total 521 D10 Region (electoral district) Riga 18 32.3% Vidzeme 1447 27.73% Kurzeme 45 12.3% Zemgale 42 12.30% Latgale 7 15.25% Total 521 D10A Region (statistical district) Riga 18 32.3% Pieriga 18 17.5% Vidzeme 538 10.31% Kurzeme 45 12.3% Zemgale 33 12.13% Latgale 7 15.25% Total 521 (Ministry of Interior, registered population [Feb. 2014] / Riga: 32.1%, Pieriga: 17.8%, Vidzeme: 10.1%, Kurzeme: 13.0%, Zemgale: 12.2%, Latgale: 14.7%) 14