THE FIVE STAR BIPARTISAN LOBBYING FIRM Elections 2018 Neil S.Clark-Lauren Huddleston-Nathan Aichele Post Primary May 12th, 2018 177 Days Remaining 1
State Of The Union Rising tide lifts all boats Loose lips sinks ships The safest place for a ship in a tsunami is at deep sea 2
State Of The Union Trump s base appears to be around 37% of the voting population. Trump s base declares he keeps his campaign promises. Trump s base gives him credit for the booming economy and the stock market. Trump s base believes that the press and polls report fake news. Trump s base support his draining the swamp. Trump may have secured peace in Korea. Trump s detractors think the complete opposite. 3
Trump s Negatives For 2018 Trump s tweeting. Trump s relationship with the United Nations. Trump s declining confidence with our allies. Trump s creation of alternative facts. Trump frequently reneges on previous international deals. Trump s continuing business operations and family involvement. Special Counsel s indictments and continuing investigations of Russian meddling in the 2016 Election. 4
Trump s Ohio Approval Last 12 Months Trump s approval rating with Ohio voters remains higher than the national RCP Average of 43.2%. July 2017 Total D R I Favorable 45 12 83 35 Unfavorable 47 84 9 51 December 2017 Favorable 44 14 80 37 Unfavorable 49 76 16 53 January 2018 Total D R I Favorable 43 13 75 39 Unfavorable 52 84 22 54 5
What to Watch The voters acceptance of the tax cuts. For the US Senate; Anti-establishment vs. establishment GOP primaries Democrats on defense in states Trump won: Indiana, West Virginia, Montana, North Dakota Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, PennsylvaniaMinnesota (Tina Smith, who will be the successor to Sen. Al Franken, D-Minn., will be running to fill his term) Democrats on offense: Nevada, Arizona Unexpected states get competitive. The magic number for the Democrats: 2 US House of Representatives; The suburban revolt against Republicans Democratic primaries Republican retirements The magic number for Democrats: 24 6
Ohio's Political Environment Governor John Kasich received his lowest approval rating of 30% in January 2011. By February 2014, his approval rating increased to 54.8%. In during 2017 his approval level reached 62% but by years end it dropped to 55%. At the end of January, 2018 Kasich s approval reached 57%. Ohio's was 4.4% unemployment, which is higher than the national rate of 3.9%, continues to decline. Ohio's improving economy has been the focus of many Ohio voters. Voters are clearly giving Governor Kasich the credit for improving Ohio s economy and lowering taxes.voters generally like his message but have strong opinions about the delivery of the message. Governor John Kasich's term ends in 2018. 7
Ohio's Economic Environment Ohio s labor market lost 379,000 jobs during the Great Recession. Now, some 9 years later 536,000 jobs a have returned. As of March, 4.4% of the labor force lacks a job. National unemployment is at 3.9%. Ohio s population has grown by 100,000 since 2009, yet the workforce has 154,512 fewer workers than Pre-Great Recession levels. Employment reports suggest that as many as 50% of all college grads between the ages of 22-27 are underemployed. Wages paid to Ohio women are 79.3% of that paid to males. The USA average is 81.9%. Union households has declined by nearly 2% since 2009. For the first quarter 2017, weekly Ohio wages were up 4% over that same time period in 2016. Weekly wages were $976 while the national average was $1,111, that places Ohio 24th in the nation. Only three Ohio counties were over the national average. Hamilton, Cuyahoga, and Delaware. Ohio fully repaid its unemployment debt. The current balance in the Ohio Unemployment Compensation Fund is nearly $500 million. The fund s Minimum Safe Level for 2018 is $3 billion. 8
Ohio's Budget In Review 9
Ohio's Budget In Review 10
Ohio's Budget In Review After 10 months of FY 2018, total revenue is up $149 million. For February, GRF revenue was up $369 million while total revenue was up $149 million. Year to date reports confirm that all major taxes, which include Auto Sales, Personal Income, CAT, were all YTD above estimates while only non-auto has fallen below estimates. Minor taxes like, Kilowatt-Hour Excise, Domestic Insurance, liquor and cigarette taxes were all below. All funds YTD expenditures were down $234 million which includes $220 million Medicaid underspend. March Medicaid caseloads were 2,988,119 million representing 25.7% of Ohio s population. YTD Caseloads were down 132,702 from estimates. Medicaid spending is up 83% since 2011. Medicaid paid an average recipient $8,276 in FY2017. In 2002, that payment was $5,618. The State of Ohio employment was an average of 51,414 Ohioans during the Kasich administration. During the Voinovich years the State employed an historical high of 67,105 Ohioans. 11
About Ohio's 88 Counties From 2000 to 2014, on average 61 of Ohio's 88 counties voted Republican in at least three of last four elections for Governor. On the other hand, the Democrats claim only 8 counties that have generally voted Democratic. As a result there are 19 toss up counties. The lowest voter turnout during last four elections for Governor was in 2014 at 40.6% while the highest was 53.2%. By reclassifying the counties to the political party they usually lean yields 77R to 11D counties. Ohio s counties have 5.8 million people living urban counties, 3.1 people residing in suburban counties and the remaining 2.7 million people living in rural counties. 12
About Elections Most races are won because the opponent made a catastrophic unrecoverable mistake. Republicans dominate the statehouse and statewide offices because of money and gerrymandered lines. Most House and Senate races will be decided in the primary. Major factors effecting Ohio Legislative races; Lines 50%, Money 20%, Issues 15%, Candidate 10%, Organization 5%. Major Factors effecting statewide races: Name ID, Money and Issues. Most believe that the nation and Ohio are ripe for a Corrective Blue Wave in 2018. 13
Governors By State - 2018 36 gubernatorial elections in 2018. Republicans currently control 33 governorships. 14
Governor s By State -2018 Of the 36 gubernatorial elections in 2018 only 8 are projected as toss ups. 15
Governor s Race - The R s Dewine/Husted Current Attorney General Mike DeWine is currently serving his second term in office after defeating fellow gubernatorial candidate Rich Cordray for the position in 2010. DeWine is a former US Senator, Lieutenant Governor, Congressman, and state legislator. DeWine s running mate, current Secretary of State Jon Husted is a former state legislator and Speaker of the Ohio House. 16
Governor's Race- The D s Cordray/Sutton Rich Cordray most recently served as the Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau appointed by President Obama. Cordray previously served as Ohio Treasurer and one term as Attorney General. Cordray has chosen former US Congressman Betty Sutton as his running mate. 17
Governor's Race-Primary Results-The D s 18
Governor's Race-Primary Results-The D s 19
Governor s Race - Primary Results 20
Governor s Race - Primary Results 21
Governor s Race - 2010 Results 22
Secretary of State The Secretary of State is the chief elections official in the state, providing oversight to the electoral process by supervising the administration of election laws, reviewing statewide initiative and referendum petitions, chairing the ballot board, investigating election fraud and irregularities, serving on the apportionment board, keeping records, and training election officials. The Secretary of State s other duties include receiving and approving the filings necessary to conduct business in the state, documenting secured transactions, providing authentication for documents, and filing historical records. Republican Frank LaRose is a current member of the Ohio Senate from Hudson, Ohio. Prior to entering the world of politics, LaRose served as a Green Beret in the US Army Special Forces. Democrat Kathleen Clyde is a current member of the Ohio House from Kent, Ohio. Prior to her election to the House, Clyde worked as deputy legal counsel to former Ohio Speaker of the House, Armond Budish. 23
Attorney General The Attorney General is the chief law officer for the state. The office itself is compromised of 30 sections that provide legal counsel for state offices and agencies, advocate for consumers and crime victims, assist in the criminal justice community, and enforce certain state laws. Democrat Steve Dettelbach was nominated by President Obama to serve as the US Attorney for the Northern District of Ohio and served in that capacity for 6 years. He is currently a partner at BakerHostetler in their White Crime Collar Defense and Corporate Investigations practice area. Republican Dave Yost is currently serving his second term as Auditor of State. Prior to his election in 2010, he served as Delaware County Auditor and Delaware County Prosecutor and formerly worked as a journalist for the Columbus Citizen Journal. 24
State Treasurer The treasurer is the chief financial officer of the state and is responsible for safeguarding the money of Ohio s taxpayers. The duties of the office include managing the state s financial assets, investing the state's money and managing an investment portfolio. tracking and maintaining a database of all unclaimed property in Ohio, providing financial advice to state agencies, and providing financial education and resource. Democrat Rob Richardson is a marketing construction representative from Cincinnati. He is a former candidate for mayor of Cincinnati and has previously served as the Chair of the Board of Trustees for the University of Cincinnati. Robert Sprague is a current member of the Ohio House of Representatives. He is a former management consultant Ernst and Young and has also served as Treasurer and Auditor for the city of Findlay. 25
Auditor of State The Auditor of State s office is responsible for auditing all public offices in Ohio more than 5,800 entities -- including cities, counties, villages, townships, schools, state universities and public libraries as well as all state agencies, boards and commissions. The Auditor s office also offers performance auditing for state and local public offices, identifies and investigates fraud in public agencies, provides financial services to local governments and promotes transparency in government. Zack Space is a former US Congressman and former Law Director in Dover. Since losing his seat in 2010, Space worked with the government relations firm Vorys Advisors. Keith Faber is a current member of the Ohio House of Representatives and has served in the legislature since 2001. Faber was President of the Ohio Senate from 2013 to 2017. Faber owns his own law firm in Celina and specializes in mediation and civil litigation. 26
Ohio House Targets All 99 Ohio House Districts Are Up for Election Held By Current Party State Rep District Opponent R Index 2012 R Index 2014 R Gavarone 3 51.4% 50.18% R Ginter 5 48.35 50.92% R OPEN 6 52.4% 53.4% R Greenspan 16 53.3% 53 27% R OPEN 36 47.3% 48.6% R OPEN 27 52.9 53.0% R Rezabek 43 47.9% 47.6% R OPEN 48 52.8% 53.1% R Arndt 89 46.9% 47.64% R Edwards 94 42.6% 41.8% R OPEN 95 50.2% 50.3% R OPEN 98 54.0% 53.35% 27
Ohio House All of the 99 Districts are up for election in 2018. House R s have 26 seats with indexes 55 or under, 12 seats under 53 and5 seats under 50. The House is currently controlled by a 66-33 Republican majority. Republicans have 20 members who are termed out and unable to run for reelection. Democrats have 10 members who are termed out and unable to run for reelection The vast majority of seats held by the Rs and D's have indexes greater than 55%, making many districts untouchable and safe. 28
House Predictions At the beginning of the 2018 election the Republican base is 66 seats. 20 open seats are up for election. 16 R seats have indexes less than 53.5 with 12 at risk. Maximum Republican majority is 66. The resignation of the Speaker of House has created chaos. Most Likely Republican House of Representatives seats for the 133rd General Assembly is 58. 29
Ohio Senate Of the 33 Senate Districts, only the odd-numbered ones run for election in 2018. However, if a Senator was recently appointed from an even numbered district, they too must run for election in 2018. As a result, 17 Senate Districts are up in 2018, but only 4 seats are contested and they are all held by Republicans. 2018 Election will mark 34 years of the Republican Majority in the Ohio Senate. Currently, the Rs hold a commanding 24-9 majority. 30
Senate Predictions Total Republican Base for 2018 is 24. The Initial Toss-Ups total 4 seats.three of the four Republican toss-up seats have R indexes well below 50%. Maximum Republican Seats are 24. Most likely outcome for Republican Senate seats in the 133rd General Assembly is 23. 31
Ohio Senate Targets Held By Current Party State Senate District Republican Endosed Democrat Leading R Index 2012 R Index 2014 R Bacon 3 Ann Gonzales 52.0% 47.8% R Beagle 5 Steve Huffman 46.844.% 44.3% R Manning 15 Nathan Manning 45.9% 45.4 % R Oelslager 29 Kirk Schuring 48.6% 48.5% 32
U.S. Congress For the national political environment, the single best measure is the generic congressional ballot. Right now, it shows a rough road for Republicans. The most current RCP Generic Ballot is +6.1 D s. This likely reflects voters dislike for both Trump and the Republican Party. According to Real Clear Politics, recent polls rate Congress with an average 73.6% disapproval rating and a 15% approval rating. Most national political pundits predict a an erosion of the robust Republican majority in the US House. Currently, the are 239 Rs, 193 Ds, of which there are 31 toss ups. Of the toss ups, 27 are Republican and 4 are Democrats. The US Senate current control is 51R to 49D. However, 11 incumbent seats, 7Ds and 4 Rs that are toss ups in 2018. 33
US House By State -Current 34
U.S. House-Ohio Trump s popularity will likely affect the Congressional outcome. Since the Civil War the party in control loses on average 32 seats. When the President has an Approval Rating 50% or less the average loss is 44 seats. Ohio lost 2 Congressional seats, down from 18 to 16, in the 2010 Census. For the 2018 election, only 2 seats are at risk. Republicans currently hold a 12-4 majority. 35
U.S. Senate-Ohio Jim Renacci is an accomplished businessman from Northeastern Ohio, a current Congressman and former Mayor of Wadsworth Ohio. Renacci defeated democratic gubernatorial candidate Betty Sutton in 2012 by 4% in one of the year s most watched Congressional race. Sherrod Brown has served in the US Senate since 2007, prior to which he was a member of the US House, the Ohio House, and served as the Ohio Secretary of State. He currently serves as the Ranking Member on the Committee on Banking Housing and Urban Affairs and sits on the Committees on Veterans Affairs, Finance, and Agriculture. 36
US Senate By State-Current 37
US Senate By State-2018 38
Ohio Supreme Court 2 seats are up for for election. Currently, all 7 Justices are Republican. Held By Current Party Incumbent Justice R Candidate D Candidate R Terrance O Donnell Craig R. Baldwin Michael P. Donnelly R Mary DeGenaro Melody Stewart The ballot for Ohio's judicial races do not indicate party affiliation. In recent years, voters seem to be fond of candidates with Irish sounding names. If the trend continues the Rs could loose a seat. 39
Web Sites and Apps 270 to Win, https://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/ Real Clear Politics,http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ CNN Politics, http://www.cnn.com/politics/ Poll Tracker, http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/ Ballotpedia, https://ballotpedia.org/ohio Wikipedia, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/united_states_elections,_2018 40