County Durham Local Migration Profile Quarter 3 2011-12 This document summarises the main migration trends and data that we can access for County Durham up to 31 st December 2011 Any reproduction of the data contained in this document must acknowledge the original source. See annexe for list of abbreviations. For further information please contact Kieron Bridges, Regional Policy and Information Officer at kieron.bridges@newcastle.gov.uk or on 0191 277 1654 1
Summary of Migration trends in County Durham Overall population change The local population was estimated at 510,804 people in 2010 (the mid year estimate ); an increase of 4,360 since 2009. County Durham has a relatively small non-british population comprising 2% of the population compared to the average of 3.4% for the North East region, and likewise 3% were born outside the UK (compared to 5% average). (See charts A and B) Chart A Chart B Population growth is affected by births, deaths and migration. In the past year, natural change (births and deaths) accounted for about 20% of this growth, and net migration about 80%. Of this net migration about 70% was due to international migration rather than internal migration (i.e. people who move to County Durham from another part of the UK as shown in Chart C). 2
Chart C MYE = Mid Year Estimate The slowly increasing fertility rate in County Durham (Chart D) is slightly higher than the average across the North East. However, births to mothers who were born outside the UK have remained lower than average but slowly increasing, totalling 6% of all new births in 2010 compared to 10.36% across the North East (see chart E). Chart D Chart E 3
New international arrivals In 2010, the formal estimate from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) was for around 3.368 new migrants who will stay more than a year ( long term migrants ) to arrive in County Durham. The formal estimate from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows a significant increase in numbers compared with previous years. The blue line below illustrates the scale of annual long term (more than 12 months stay) immigration estimated by ONS. It is used in calculation of mid-year estimates (MYE) of population and includes all types of migrants who meet the duration-of-stay criterion. 1 Flag 4 data measures (new) GP registrations to foreign nationals. It is probably the most comparable alternative source to the ONS estimates as GP registrations will capture all migrants (if they choose to register) and individuals are more likely to register if they are resident for more than 12 months. However, there are biases in the Flag 4 data due, in particular, to underregistration of young males which means that the comparison is not perfect. But a direct comparison of the pattern and trend evident from the two sources is a useful starting point when attempting to confirm the true scale of long-term migration to an area. GP registrations suggest a smaller figure and a slower increase of 2,122 (Chart F) The other administrative source on Chart F is for National Insurance Number (NINo) allocations to overseas nationals entering the UK which suggests a lower figure of 1,020. The NINo data only records migrants over the age of 16, who 1 Estimates of long-term international migration are obtained from three main sources; the International Passenger Survey (IPS), the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and Home Office data on asylum seekers and their dependants. Data on the number of people intending to enter (or leave) England and Wales for a period of 12 months or more (long-term international migrants) are obtained from the IPS. These estimates are supplemented with other sources to obtain more accurate estimates at subnational levels of geography. Limitations of the IPS include; small sample size, data collected are intention based as opposed to collected retrospectively, respondents may also only state a large city as their intended location of residence but subsequently take up residence in a different location. Subnational estimates of immigration, for regions within England and for Wales, are calibrated using data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). The LFS is a quarterly sample survey of households at private addresses within Great Britain. It s purpose is to provide information on the UK labour market, but it also provides estimates of international migration that have already occurred. Using the LFS in combination with the IPS provides more accurate estimates of where new migrants live within England and Wales. 4
are planning to work or claim benefits. In Durham the large number of foreign students (3,025) who arrive and do neither may explain this anomaly. Chart F Net international migration to County Durham was 2,491 in 2010, which is a substantial increase from previous years. However, future net migration is expected to stabilise at slightly over 1,500 going forward. This projection assumes no changes in policy or international conditions. (Chart G) 5
Chart G Around 4,140 migrants visited County Durham for between one and 12 months (short-term migrants) including tourists (this latest estimate is for 2007) There is a substantial population of 3,025 international students undertaking Higher Education courses in Durham. This represents just under 16% of the international student population in the North East. In 2011 1.9% of primary and 1.3% of secondary school pupils in Durham had a first language that is something other than English. This compares to 5.7% and 3.8% respectively for the North East as a whole. The overall number of new migrant workers who arrived in County Durham in 2010 was 830; a figure which has remained fairly consistent for the past 3 years. The last three years have seen substantially lower numbers of migrant workers arriving in the county than the peak of 1,350 in 2007 (Chart H). The top country of origin is China followed by the USA and India (Chart I). 6
Chart H Chart I This chart examines NINo registrations by country of origin in more detail. The top 15 countries-of-origin across the region (for the last 12 months) have been identified, with counts displayed for each area. The number of new workers arriving from the 12 EU accession countries 2 is lower again than last year at 290, and much lower than the peak of 890 in 2007 (Chart H), and the latest data on A8 arrivals to the region confirms that trends in new arrivals seem to be decreasing. 7
Chart J shows the total number of A8 workers registered onto the Workers Registration Scheme and also highlights this downward trend. The total number of registrations received for 2010 was 200: considerably lower than the peak of 690 in 2006. While the number of new migrant workers from EU accession countries has been very changeable during the past six years, there has been a steadily increasing number of workers from other countries arriving each year. (Chart H) The chart below (Chart K) indicates the geographic split of Worker Registration Scheme registered workers within County Durham. It is worth noting that this data is based on the postcode of the employer, rather than where the migrant lives. Given migrant workers are often more willing to travel long distances to work, this data reflects who is working in the area rather than necessarily where migrant workers live. Unfortunately, the most recent dataset for this is for 2009. As can be seen from Chart K, Derwentside had the largest number of A8 migrants working within the area at the end of 2009 Chart J 8
Chart K WRS Registrations by District Authority 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Chester-le-Street Derwentside Durham Easington Sedgefield Teesdale Wear Valley WRS Registrations 2004-2009 ANNEXE Abbreviations A8 APS ASYS DWP EU GOR GP HESA IPS LGA MYE NINo NIRS ONS PRDS RIES RMP SNPP STM TFR Accession countries: Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia Annual Population Survey Asylum Statistics (received from UKBA) Department for Works and Pensions European Union Government Office Regions General Practitioner Higher Education Statistics Agency International Passenger Survey Local Government Association Mid-year estimate (population) National Insurance Number National Insurance Recording System Office for National Statistics Patient Register Data Service Refugee Integration and Employment Service Regional Migration Partnership Sub-national Population Projections Short-term migration Total Fertility Rate 9
TIM UKBA WRS Total International Migration United Kingdom Border Agency Workers Registration Scheme 10