Election 2010: What Happened? What Next?

Election 2010: What Happened? What Next? Dr. Susan A. MacManus University of South Florida, Tampa Mary Moss USF Honors College Student FSASE Winter Meeting Saddlebrook Resort January 12, 2011 SLIDESHOW FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY

Looking Back to 2000 Election Election Reforms Favored By Floridians After the 2000 Election Standard Recount Rules, How and When Same Ballot Layout/Design in All Counties Same Kind Voting Machines in All Counties Standard Rules Counting Overseas Absentee Ballots Better Voter Education for New Registrants Same Poll Closing Time Throughout the State Statewide Voter Registration List to Reduce Fraud Better Training of Poll Workers Better Voter Registration System Prohibit Cabinet Officials from Campaigning for Nonpartisan Election of Supervisor of Elections Outlaw Punch Card Machines Restore Felon Voting Rights Allow Voting Over the Internet 17 33 63 62 61 92 92 92 91 91 87 86 81 79 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percent of Respondents

Ten Years After! Public Rates Elections Highly Government provided services that received the most positive ratings Convenient to Vote 78 74 76 79 Election Equipment Higher Education Election Law Information 45 41 43 54 53 55 58 59 50 64 58 60 2010 2008 2007 2006 Environmental Protection 40 48 46 45 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percent of Respondents Positive ratings = excellent & good combined

Quality of Specific Govt. Services, 2010 Positive ratings for services provided by state and local governments in Florida Positive ratings = excellent & good combined

Economy/Jobs Biggest Problems

Attitudes of Americans Toward Government Policy Politicians Elections Ahead Economic Future Direction of Country

Government Policy

President s Handling of the Economy 28% of Americans trust the president s judgment on economic issues more than their own (Rasmussen Sept 13, 2010) 42% of Americans approve of the job that Obama is doing in handling the economy. 54% disapprove (NBC/WSJ Sept. 2010). 53% of Adults feel the federal government has too much influence over the economy 20% say it doesn t have enough influence (Rasmussen Oct. 2010). 41% will use their vote to express opposition to Obama policies (41% of independent voters) 34% will use their vote to express support for Obama policies (30 % of independent voters) (Fox News/Opinon Dynamics, Sept. 2010)

Federal Stimulus 39% believe the stimulus hurt the economy, 34% believe it helped the economy, 22% say it had no impact (Rasmussen Sept 22-23, 2010). 57% of Americans favor more government spending to create jobs, 37% would rather the government focus on reducing the deficit. (Newsweek, Aug 25-26, 2010). Majority (52%) worry that the government will do too much to fix the economy (Rasmussen).

Bailouts 25 % think providing bailout funding for banks & other financial institutions was a good idea, 56% think it was a bad idea(rasmussen, July 20, 2010). 41% Bailout funding will help the economy in the short-term 34% Bailout funding will hurt the economy 17% Bailout funding will have no short-term impact 28% Bailout funding will be economically beneficial long-term 51% Bailout funding will hurt the economy in the long-term 17% Bailout funding will have no long-term impact 34% Taxpayers may receive money back from bailout 61% Do not feel it s likely taxpayers will be paid back 57% 21% 22% More confident in Congress member voting against bailouts More confident in Congress member voting for bailouts Undecided

Federal Deficit Over the past year alone, public debt rose sharply from 41% to 53% of the economy (Washington Post). By 2015, the public debt is projected to account for 73% of the GDP (CNBC, June 9, 2010). 82% Important to cut the federal deficit in half by 2013 (Rasmussen July 1, 2010) 23% Believe deficit will be cut in half by 2013 18% Willing to pay higher taxes to lower the federal budget deficit 40% say that cutting the federal deficit in half is Obama s most important budget priority. 67% say it is the one he is least likely to achieve (Rasmussen, March 18, 2010). 18% of Americans are willing to pay higher taxes to lower the federal budget deficit (Rasmussen, May 2, 2010). 56% Increasing government spending is bad for the economy. 24% Increased government spending helps the economy (Rasmussen, June 12, 2010).

Banks & Mortgages 11% Very confident in the banking system 47% Somewhat confident in the banking system 16% Not at all confident in the banking system (Rasmussen July 17-18, 2010) 9% Very worried that their money will be lost in bank failure 21% Somewhat worried they will lose their money in bank failure 47% Not very worried their money will be lost in bank failure 18% Not at all worried they will lose their money due to bank failure 56% believe increasing government spending is bad for the economy. Just 24% believe increased government spending helps the economy (Rasmussen, June 12, 2010). Over one-third of current homeowners owe more on mortgage than home is worth (underwater)

Health Care 42% favor repeal of health care reform, 36% are opposed 22% are not sure (WSJ/NBC, Sept 2010). 55% oppose the mandate that individuals buy insurance or face a tax penalty 25% favor the individual mandate Note: This is the provision of the health care reform bill that generated the greatest opposition (WSJ/NBC Sept 2010). 49% expect the quality of care to get worse under the new law 25% say it will get better 21% say quality of care will remain the same. (Rasmussen Aug 30, 2010) 18% expect the health care plan to lower costs 59% think it will lead to higher costs (Rasmussen Sept 27, 2010). 51% of voters believe that the health care plan is bad for America and that it will hurt the quality of care while driving up costs and the budget deficit. 37% say it will be good for America. (Rasmussen, Sept 6, 2010)

BP Oil Spill Prior to the oil spill, 50% of Americans favored offshore oil drilling in the Gulf. June, 45% favored it (AP/GfK, June 9-14, 2010). August, 53% favor deepwater drilling; 61% favor offshore drilling ; 29% oppose; 19% not sure) (Rasmussen, Aug 29-30, 2010) Overall, 41% of Americans say Barack Obama s handling of the oil spill was good/excellent 35% say Obama s handling was poor (Rasmussen, Aug 29-30, 2010) Overall, 14% of Americans approve BP s handling of the oil spill. 81% disapprove (AP/GfK, June 9-14, 2010). 75% of Americans believe that BP is mostly responsible for the spill. 44% believe that federal regulatory agencies are mostly responsible (USA Today/Gallup, June 11-13, 2010).

National Immigration 78% say U.S. could be doing more along its border to keep illegal immigrants out (New York Times/CBS News, May 2010) 62% federal govt. policies/practices encourage people to enter U.S. illegally (Rasmussen, Sept. 2010) 51% Arizona law about right in its approach 36% Arizona law went too far 9% Arizona law did not go far enough (New York Florida Times/CBS News, May 2010) 61% of likely voters favor Arizona-type law in Florida. 31% of likely voters oppose Arizona-type law in Florida (Rasmussen, Sept. 14, 2010)

Politicians

Who is to Blame? Who Knows Best? 50% believe the country s economic woes can be blamed on the Bush administration; 42% believe the policies of Obama are to blame (Rasmussen, Sept 13, 2010). 69% of people have more trust in themselves to make judgments about the issues facing our country; 47% have more trust in the men and women who hold or are running for public office (Gallup, Oct 14, 2010). 58% disapprove of the job President Obama has done handling the budget (Pew Research).

Perception of Government When asked to describe the federal government in one word or phrase, 72% of Americans responded with a word or phrase that was negative (Gallup Sept 20-21, 2010).

Little Confidence in Congress 62% of Americans say Congress is doing a poor job (Rasmussen Sept 17, 2010). 41% think a group of people selected at random from the phone book would do a better job than the current Congress. 38% disagree, while 20% are not sure (Rasmussen May 20, 2010). 81% believe that most politicians do not keep their campaign promises. 50% believe that when politicians break campaign promises, it s because they deliberately made a false promise to get elected (Rasmussen Oct 14, 2010). 62% believe that no matter how bad things are, Congress can always make them worse (Rasmussen Sept 9, 2010). 65% of voters say that it would be better for the country if most of Congress is not reelected (Rasmussen, June 11, 2010). 77% of Americans think that Republicans and Democrats in Congress have been bickering more than usual (Pew, Sept 30 Oct 3, 2010).

Little Confidence in Congress, Cont. 71% Any proposed change to Social Security should be submitted by Congress to the people for a vote (Rasmussen, Aug. 29-30, 2010) 21% disagree 9% aren t sure 70% of Democrats agree 61% Congress should be required to get voter approval before raising taxes 33% disagree 6% not sure 52% of Democrats agree

Little Confidence in Most Institutions

Public Cynical About Economic Future

Employment Only 45% of Americans are satisfied with their work, which can partly be blamed on the recession (My Way News). Workers under 25 expressed the highest level of dissatisfaction (64%) 43% of workers feel secure in their jobs, down from 47% in 2008 and 59% in 1987 (My Way News). 46% of government employees say the economy is getting better, while just 31 percent say it s getting worse. 32% of those in private-sector jobs say the economy is getting better, while 49% say it is getting worse (Rasmussen).

Housing 61% of adults say it is better for the economy if the government stays out of the housing market (Rasmussen, June 3, 2010). Just 27% of homeowners believe their home will be worth more in a year while 21% believe it will be worth less (Rasmussen, June 3, 2010). 52% of people expect the value of their home to go up in 5 years, 14% think value will decline (Rasmussen, June 3, 2010). 65% that believe now is not a good time to sell (Rasmussen, March 26, 2010). 55% report that their home is worth more than the amount owed on their mortgage (Rasmussen, June 3, 2010).

Direction of Country Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, conducted September 22-26, 2010

Economic Outlook in 2010 71% of all adults say recession is not over. 38% believe the economy will be stronger in a year, while 39% expect it to be weaker (Rasmussen). 56% of Republicans, 40% of Democrats, and 54% of adults not affiliated with either major party, predict the economy will still be in a recession at the end of the year (Rasmussen). 67% think unemployment rate will be the same or higher a year from today (Rasmussen). 43% do not expect the economy to ever recover to prerecession levels (AlixPartners). 46% of Americans no longer believe that the US economy is the best in the world (Rasmussen Sept 29,2010).

Job Creation 69% Tax cuts better way to create jobs than more government spending 15% Government spending better way to create jobs 65% Business owners will do more to create jobs than government officials 23% Government officials will do more to create jobs Source: Rasmussen July 1 2010

Govt., Taxing, & Spending 68% favor smaller government, fewer services, & lower taxes 24% prefer more active government, more services, & higher taxes (Rasmussen Sept, 2010). 88% of Republicans favor smaller government 74% of independents favor smaller government Democrats are evenly divided 65% say lawmakers should consider raising taxes on the rich back to where they were 10 years ago (Bloomberg National Poll).

Economic Woes= An Angry Electorate= Higher Turnout

10 Signs U.S. Voters Are Unhappy Rising unemployment rates Growing levels of in-person activism Angry with government officials perks Willing to sign petitions limiting power of state & local officials Disgust with poor oversight of programs

10 Signs U.S. Voters Are Unhappy Concern government officials actions increasing class warfare Cynical attitudes toward fiscally-related campaign promises Growing sense of futility in contacting officials Rising number of first-time candidates More challengers running against sitting incumbents in same party

Elections

Voters by Media Market I-4 Media Markets (Tampa Bay/Orlando) Top the List Media Market # of Voters Percent of Florida Votes Cast by Media Market Gainesville 98986 1.8% Jacksonville 527912 9.7% Miami/Ft. Lauderdale 952517 17.5% Naples/Ft. Myers 366676 6.7% Orlando/Daytona Beach 1088752 19.9% Panama City 120733 2.2% Pensacola 210973 3.9% Tallahassee 168688 3.1% Tampa/St. Petersburg 1343421 24.6% West Palm Beach/Ft. Pierce 578888 10.6% Total 5457546

U.S Senate Race: Results Marco Rubio (R) 48.9% Charlie Crist (NPA) 29.7% Kendrick Meek (D) 20.2%

U.S. Senate Race: Polls Over Time

U.S. Senate Race: County by County Results

U.S. Senate Race: Results by Media Market Marco Rubio Kendrick B. Meek Charlie Crist Other Media Market (REP) (DEM) (NPA) Gainesville 44.9% 25.6% 27.7% 1.8% Jacksonville 58.8% 20.6% 19.4% 1.2% Miami/Ft. Lauderdale 38.9% 30.2% 30.2% 0.7% Naples/Ft. Myers 58.2% 10.3% 30.4% 1.1% Orlando/Daytona Beach 53.0% 21.5% 24.1% 1.3% Panama City 69.3% 12.8% 15.6% 2.3% Pensacola 64.3% 13.5% 20.5% 1.8% Tallahassee 39.2% 25.1% 34.5% 1.2% Tampa/St. Petersburg 45.4% 16.2% 37.1% 1.3% West Palm Beach/Ft. Pierce 44.4% 18.2% 36.5% 0.9% Total 48.9% 20.2% 29.7% 1.2%

Florida Governor s Race: Results Rick Scott (R) 48.9% Alex Sink (D) 47.8%

Florida Governor s Race: Polls Over Time

Florida Governor s Race: County by County Results

Florida Governor s Race: Results by Media Market Rick Scott Alex Sink Other Media Market (REP) (DEM) Gainesville 42.8% 53.9% 3.2% Jacksonville 57.3% 39.8% 2.9% Miami/Ft. Lauderdale 38.3% 59.8% 1.9% Naples/Ft. Myers 59.8% 36.6% 3.6% Orlando/Daytona Beach 50.3% 45.8% 3.8% Panama City 62.3% 32.4% 5.2% Pensacola 63.6% 30.9% 5.5% Tallahassee 37.2% 60.2% 2.5% Tampa/St. Petersburg 49.5% 46.4% 4.1% West Palm Beach/Ft. Pierce 43.6% 53.4% 3.0% Total 48.9% 47.7% 3.4%

Florida Cabinet Races: Results Attorney General: Pam Bondi (R) Chief Financial Officer: Jeff Atwater (R) Commissioner of Agriculture: Adam Putnam (R)

The Florida Electorate: Different Than in 2008 Older (50 & older +16%) More conservative (+5%) More female (+4%) More Republican (+2%) Lower income (<$50,000 +7%) Better educated (college grads +3%)

Voting Patterns: By Economic Concerns (Exit Poll) Voters Sink (D) Scott (R) % % % Family Financial Condition Better 11 70 27 Same 44 53 45 Worse 35 35 63 Worried About Economic Conditions? Yes 86 42 55 No 13 49 46 Worried About Foreclosure for You or Relative? Yes 45 41 55 No 54 55 42

Voting Patterns: By Economic Concerns (Exit Poll) Voter Sink (D) Scott (R) % % % U.S. Economy Is In Normal Downturn 23 73 23 Long-Term Decline 73 39 58 Highest Priority for Next Congress? Cut Taxes 18 24 73 Reduce Deficit 34 36 62 Spending to Create Jobs 42 68 30

Voting Patterns: By Views About Government(Exit Poll) Voter Sink (D) Scott (R) % % % Direction Country Is Headed Right Direction 35 90 8 Wrong Track 62 24 72 Obama Handling Job as President Approve 45 88 9 Disapprove 54 15 81 Opinion of Federal Government Satisfied/ Enthusiastic 28 82 15 Angry/Dissatisfied 70 32 65

Voting Patterns: By Views About Government(Exit Poll) Voter Sink (D) Scott (R) % % % Stimulus Package Impact Helped Economy 33 91 8 Hurt Economy 34 13 85 No Difference 30 43 51 Opinion of Tea Party Movement Support 39 14 83 Neutral 25 48 47 Oppose 32 90 8

Voting Patterns: By Voter Demographics(Exit Poll) Voter Sink (D) Scott (R) % % % Age 18-24 4 57 39 25-29 4 62 36 30-39 10 48 48 40-49 16 46 51 50-64 30 46 51 65+ 35 46 50 Sex Male 44 14 83 Female 56 48 47

Voting Patterns: By Voter Demographics(Exit Poll) Voter Sink (D) Scott (R) % % % Race White 74 41 56 African-American 11 92 6 Latino 12 48 50 Income < $50,000 46 52 44 $50,000-$100,000 35 43 55 $100,000+ 19 44 53 Marital Status Married 61 40 57 Unmarried 39 59 37

Voting Patterns: By Voter Political Leanings(Exit Poll) Voter Sink (D) Scott (R) % % % Party ID Democrat 36 89 9 Republican 36 10 88 Independent 29 42 52 Ideology Liberal 18 84 15 Moderate 42 60 37 Conservative 40 16 80

Voting Patterns: By Voter Political Leanings(Exit Poll) Voter Sink (D) Scott (R) % % % Consistency In Vote Between US Senate & Governor Meek 21 94 5 Rubio 48 11 88 Crist 29 78 19

Voting Patterns: By Voter Geographical Location(Exit Poll) Voter Sink (D) Scott (R) % % % Size of Place Urban 26 58 39 Suburban 58 47 50 Rural 4 35 61 TURNOUT HIGHEST IN RURAL & SUBURBAN AREAS: HARDEST HIT BY UNEMPLOYMENT & HOME FORECLOSURES

Challenges: 2012 Redistricting Polling locations Election costs Technology Voter eligibility/id Voter education Watchdog groups Mail/Absentee ballots

Florida Was in the National Spotlight Again and Will Be in 2012!!!

. Photo Credits Slide 1: Focus on 2010 Tea Party Protestors: Steve Ringman, The Seattle Times. Available at http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/abpub/zoom/html/2009059131.html. U.S. Capitol Building: Architect of the Capitol Website. Available at http://www.aoc.gov/cc/capitol/dome_1.cfm. President Obama: White House Website. Available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/photos-and-video/photogallery/remarks-president-health-care. Slide 2: Attitudes of Americans Blogs.KansasCity.Com. Available at blogs.kansascity.com/crime_scene/2006/04/18/. Slide 3: Government Policy; PNT The Gazette Edition. Available at http://washedit.com/wpcontent/uploads/2009/07/deficit.jpg. Slide 4: Federal Stimulus;CNYCentral.com. Available at http://www.cnycentral.com/uploadedimages/wstm/news/stories/stimulus.jpg. Slide 5: Bailouts; Unambig.wordpress.com. Available at http://unambig.files.wordpress.com/2009/11/gm-bailout-1.jpg. Slide 6: Federal Deficit; Susan A. MacManus Slide 7: Health Care Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images North America. Available at http://www.zimbio.com/pictures/d4kpsrfqb_h/activists+rally+health+care+insurance+reform/mmvm QW3I3uc/Robert+Williams. Immigration: Christian Science Monitor, July 22, 2010 Slide 8: Politicians; Susan A. MacManus Slide 9: Who is to blame? Who knows best?: No photo Slide 10: Little Confidence in Congress Harry Reid: LA Times blog. Available at http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/.a/6a00d8341c630a53ef0120a67983f9970c-450wi Nancy Pelosi: Wellsy.wordpress.com. Available at http://wellsy.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/nancypelosi-attacks.jpg Slide 11: Elections Ahead; Rd.com. Available at http://media.rd.com/rd/images/rdc/mag0806/quickstudy-will-your-vote-count-01-af.jpg. Slide 12: Gubernatorial and U.S. Senate Races: No photo

Photo Credits, Continued. Slide 13: Public Cynical About Economic Future Telecomcircle.com. Available at http://www.telecomcircle.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/economy.jpg. Slide 14: Employment The Stem Cell Blog. Available at http://repairstemcell.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/employment.jpg Slide 15: Generational Changes Augustafreepress.com. Available at http://66.147.242.84/~augusta2/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/unemployment.jpg. Slide 16: Housing; Sarasota County Government Slide 17: Direction of Country; Presentationmall.com. Available at http://www.presentationmall.com/images/us500.jpg. Slide 18: Economic Outlook in 2010;Susan A. MacManus Slide 19: Economy Woes= An Angry Electorate= High Turnout; All photos: Susan A. MacManus Slide 20: 10 Signs U.S. Voters Are Unhappy;Susan A. MacManus Slide 21: 10 Signs U.S. Voters Are Unhappy;Susan A. MacManus Slide 22: Issues Likely to Dominate in 2010 Elections BBC. Available at http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45137000/jpg/_45137576_florida-indoor-line466x300_.jpg.