America s s Emerging Demography The role of minorities, college grads & the aging and younging of the population William H. Frey The Brookings Institution and University of Michigan www.frey-demographer.org
Projected 50 Years Population Growth 250 200 Race 213 188 250 200 Age 150 150 147 100 50 0 7 71 Whites Blacks Asians Hispanics 100 50 0 49 36 26 Under 20 20-44 45-64 65+
US: Population by Race: 2000 and 2050 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 50.1% White Black 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 69.1% 2000 2050 Asian Hispani c
US: Population by Age: 2000 and 2050 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 12.4% 20.7% 65+ 45-54 20-44 Under 20 0 2000 2050
United States Projected Race Compositions, 2025 Under Age 18 Age 18-64 Age 65+ 52 % 62 % 76 % white black Indian Asian Hispanic
New Demographic Regions Melting Pot America The New Sunbelt The Heartland
New Sunbelt, Melting Pot, and Heartland States New Sunbelt Melting Pot Heartland States
Share of U.S. in Melting Pot States Foreign Born 70% Asian Language at Home 68% Spanish at Home 76% Mixed Marriages 51% Native Born 37% English at Home 34%
Demographic Components, 2000-2004 2004 (Rates per 1000) 30 25 20 15 10 27 16 20 8 Immigraton Domestic Migration 5 0-5 -10-6 Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland -5 Source: William Frey
Melting Pot States: 2000-04 04 Components 40 30 33 28 25 20 10 0-10 -20-12 7 Immigraton Domestic Migration -30-40 -50-39 California New York Texas Source: William Frey
New Sunbelt: 2000-04 04 Components 60 50 51 40 30 26 Immigraton Domestic Migration 20 10 18 20 19 15 0 Arizona Georgia North Carolina Source: William Frey
Florida: 2000-04 04 Components 80 70 72 60 50 40 30 26 48 52 24 Immigraton Domestic Migration 20 10 0-10 Florida Miami Orlando -5 Source: William Frey
Heartland: 2000-04 04 Components 30 20 10 10 5 11 Immigraton Domestic Migration 0-10 -11-11 -20-17 Michigan Ohio Kansas Source: William Frey
Urban Suburban Growth: 2000-04 04 12 10 8 6 4 Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland 2 0 Major Metro Core Major Metro Periphery Large Metro Medium Metro Small Metro Non Metro Source: William Frey
Fastest Growing Counties, 2000-04 04 Growth County Inside Metro Area 1 41.0 Loudoun Co, VA Washington DC 2 38.5 Flagler Co. FL Daytona Beach 3 35.4 Douglas Co, CO Denver 4 35.2 Rockwall Co, TX Dallas 5 34.0 Forsyth Co, GA Atlanta 6 33.6 Henry Co, GA Atlanta 7 33.0 Kendall Co, IL Chicago 8 31.5 Newton Co, GA Atlanta 9 30.2 Lincoln Co, SD Sioux Falls, SD 10 29.7 Paulding Co, GA Atlanta Source: William Frey
Race Composition of Regions Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland 2% 9% 2% 4% 2% 25% 3% 12% 14% 2% 7% 55% 72% 11% 80% White Black Asian Other Hispanic
Melting Pot States: Race Change 1990-2003 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 White Black Asian Hispanic 0-1,000,000-2,000,000 Source: William Frey California New York
New Sunbelt: Race Change 1990-2003 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 White Black Asian Hispanic 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Source: William Frey Nevada Georgia
Migrant Shares from California Utah Oregon Washington Nevada Share Idaho Colorado Arizona Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution 0 50 100 150
Hispanic Concentration Key Below 12.5% 12.5% - 25.0% Above 25.0%
Greatest Hispanic Gainers, 2000-04 04 1. California 1,385,804 2. Texas 1,042,241 3. Florida 589,444 4. Arizona 295,531 5. Illinois 230,593 6. New York 186,825
Fastest Hispanic Growth 2000-04 %Growth 1. Arkansas 37.7 2. South Dakota 37.3 3. South Carolina 35.7 4. Georgia 35.7 5. North Carolina 35.0 6. Tennessee 33.4 7. Nevada 32.7 8. New Hampshire 32.7 9. Maine 32.0
Asian Concentration Key Below 4.3% 4.3% - 10.0% Above 10.0%
Greatest Asian Gains, 2000-04 Gains 1. California 470,156 2. New York 134,331 3. Texas 121,626 4. New Jersey 107,075 5. Florida 66,843 6. Illinois 64,651 7. Virginia 57,857 8. Washington 53,284
Black Concentration Key Below 12.6% 12.6% - 25.0% Above 25.0%
Black Migration to the South Rises 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0-100,000 1965-70 1975-80 1985-90 1995-2000 -200,000-300,000
Black Migration 1965-70 1995-2000 Top 5 Gains Gains Losses Top 5 Los ses
Greatest Black Gains, 2000-04 Gains 1. Florida 264,334 2. Georgia 224,731 3. Texas 149,542 4. Maryland 109,224 5. North Carolina 96,728 6. Virginia 48,861
White Concentration Key Below 69.1% 69.1% - 85.0% Above 85.0%
2000-04 Greatest White Decliners 1. New York -122,440 2. Massachusetts - 81,069 3. California - 72,628 4. New Jersey - 56,231 5. Pennsylvania -55,327 6. Illinois - 54,691
2000-04 Greatest White Gainers 1. Florida 391,009 2. Arizona 204,154 3. Texas 190,594 4. North Carolina 186,069 5. Georgia 153,819 6. Virginia 122,633 7. Washington 121,844 8. Nevada 107,636 9. Colorado 104,587
Fastest White Growth, 1990-2000 15 25% Over 25%
Born in Same State Percent Born in Same State LT 65% GT 65%
Children Speaking Spanish at Home 20% and Over 10% to 20% 5% to 10% Under 5%
Hispanics as Percent of Population: Children and Adults, 2000 60 50.9 50 40 38.7 43.8 40.5 36.1 30 28.1 28.6 28.3 20 17.1 10 11.0 0 New Mexico California Texas Arizona US Children* Adults \
College Grad Migration, 1995-2000 Top 5 Gains Gains Losses Top 5 Losses
North & South Migration: Education 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0-0.5-1 -1.5-2 -2.5-3 North South Less than HS HS Grad Some College College Grad
US Growth by Age 2000-10 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20 49 19 16 14 10 3 4-9 0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
Growth by Age, 2000-10 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Under 25 25-44 45-64 65+ 0-10 California Nevada Michigan Source: William Frey,
2000-10 Growth: Under Age 35 GT 7% 1% - 7% LT 1%
Fastest Growing School Aged, 2000-10 % Growth 1. Nevada 28.1 2. Arizona 19.1 3. North Carolina 14.0 4. Utah 13.5 5. Georgia 12.6 6. Florida 7.1 7. Virginia 5.3
Fastest Declining School Aged, 2000-10 %Growth 1. North Carolina -15.1 2. Maine -14.8 3. Wyoming -14.6 4. Vermont -13.6 5. Montana -12.9 6. Dist of Columbia -12.3 7. Alaska -12.2 8. New Mexico -11.5 9. Pennsylvania -8.8 10. New York -8.1
2000-10 Growth: Age 55+ GT 37% 24% - 37% LT 24%
Fastest Growing Old-Old (85+), 2000-10 %Growth 1. Alaska 116.0 2. Nevada 96.9 3. Arizona 76.4 4. New Mexico 64.4 5. Florida 62.4 6. California 57.8 7. Delaware 57.7 8. Hawaii 57.4 9. Maryland 57.1
Boomers vs. Parents at Midlife % With 3+ Kids 30% 55% % Not Married 21% 36% %Women Not Working 23% 50% % HS Dropout 14% 38% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Boomers Parents
Projected Growth, Age 65+, 2000-30 GT 125% 75% - 125% LT 75%
Percent Age 65+, 2030 GT 22% 19% - 22% LT 19%
State Projected Growth, 2000-2030 2030 Projected Growth, 2000-2030 Growth 25% or more Source: William Frey Growth 10% to 24% Less than 10%
Electoral Vote Gains, 2000-2030 2030 Source: William Frey Florida 9 Texas 8 Arizona 5 California 2 Nevada 2 North Carolina 2 Georgia 1 Oregon 1 Utah 1 Virginia 1 Washington 1
Electoral Vote Losses, 2000-2030 2030 New York -6 Iowa -1 Pennsylvania -4 Kentucky -1 Ohio -4 Louisiana -1 Illinois -3 Missouri -1 Massachusetts -2 Nebraska -1 Michigan -2 New Jersey -1 Alabama -1 Rhode Island -1 Connecticut -1 West Virginia -1 Indiana -1 Wisconsin -1 Source: William Frey
Useful Websites www.brookings.edu/metro www.censusscope.org