Africa s Recovery from the Global Recession: Challenges and Opportunities Professor Hassan Y. Aly Chief Research Economist The African Development Bank At the WB, Egypt April 24, 2010
Key Messages I. Africa s strong performance before the crisis II. Crisis hit Africa with a lag, but hard III. Short-term impact mitigated through relatively good starting conditions and prudent policies IV. Long-term impact from using fiscal stimulus may linger. Thus, challenges of structural transformation and growth remain 2
Growth and poverty trends prior to the global financial and economic crisis Africa among the fastest growing regions during 2000 08 During 2000 - mid-2008, many African countries grew at unprecedented rates due to: prudent macroeconomic policies improved political climate benign external environment (a commodity boom and foreign investors search for new markets) debt relief and reduced debt service burden 40 percent of African countries grew at or above 5 percent
Advanced economies Western Hemisphere Central and Eastern Europe Middle East Africa CIS and Mongolia Developing Asia average annual change in percent Africa among fastest growing regions in the world during 2000-08 9.0 8.0 Growth of real GDP by regions, 2000 2008 (annual change in percent) 7.0 6.0 5.0 World average 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Source: World Economic Outlook database.
Growth and poverty trends prior to the global financial and economic crisis (cont.) More limited progress with respect to income inequality and poverty reduction Growth performance more subdued when measured in terms of GDP per capita Africa s growth still below that of most other regions The income inequality between Africa and the developed countries almost unchanged Africa s poverty rate fell from 58 to 50 percent between 1995 and 2005
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Regional GDP (PPP) per capita relative to the 45 Euro area, 1991 2008 (in %) 40 Africa 35 30 25 20 Central and Eastern Europe Commonwealth of Independent States Developing Asia 15 Middle East 10 5 Western Hemisphere 0 Source: World Economic Outlook database.
How does the global crisis affect Africa? Most countries were shielded from the first round impact of the financial crisis: Reasons - African countries generally have low financial depth and less developed financial systems. Their integration into global financial markets is limited. Housing finance and real estate markets, key channels of transmission in the European economies, continue to be absent in most of Africa. Even countries with large foreign bank ownership had not accumulated large external private sector debts (and especially short term debts).
Africa s limited financial integration External equity issuance, 2006 2008, in bln of US$ External debt issuance, 2006 2008, in bln of US$ 120,000 70,000 100,000 60,000 80,000 50,000 60,000 2006 2007 2008 40,000 30,000 2006 2007 2008 40,000 20,000 20,000 10,000 0 Africa Middle East Latin America Emerging Europe Asia 0 Africa Latin America Middle East Asia Emerging Europe Source: World Economic Outlook database.
But not all countries were immune to the financial crisis South Africa and Kenya experienced sudden stops of capital flows already in 2008. Several countries (South Africa, Egypt) saw their stock market plummeting at the end of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. Nigerian banks suffered from the global credit crunch when they faced difficulties obtaining trade credit. In August 2009 the Central Bank of Nigeria injected funds into the banking system, when five leading Nigerian banks posted losses from non-performing loans (excessive lending). The banking sector in Ghana has shown declining profitability and rising non-performing assets due to second round effects (low exports proceeds)
The Impacts -- Transmission Channel Collapse of exports (demand and prices); Deteriorating TOT; Reduced capital flows; Collapse of international transfers (Remittances, aid, Suez canal, etc..); Real sector (effects on tourism, etc..)
percent Tourism activity hit by the crisis Change in tourist arrivals (Jan Apr 2009 versus Jan Apr 2008) 0-5 -10-15 -20-25 -30-35 Gambia Tanzania Mauritius Kenya Senegal Source: African Economic Outlook database.
Billions of U.S. dollars Remittances also fell in 2009 due to the crisis $24 Workers' Remittances - SSA $22 $20 $18 $16 $14 Base Case Low Case $12 2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f Remittances at $20 billion in 2007 75% of Africa s remittances come from the US and Europe Remittances not countercyclical this time; declined by 13% in 2009 Source: Ratha and Mahopatra (2009)
The global economic crisis halted Africa s boom 7.0% 6.0% 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 5.7% 5.9% 5.0% 4.0% 3.5% 4.9% 4.1% Growth prospects quickly deteriorated: 3.0% 2.0% Real GDP Growth 2.0% Growth went down to around 2% in 2009 (1% for SSA) 1.0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: African Economic Outlook database.
Varied Impacts on Growth across Countries (i) Countries that were more open to trade and capital flows and grew rapidly in 2008 have suffered the sharpest growth falls ( SA & Botswana). Two groups have taken a particularly large hit: (i) the emerging and frontier markets and (ii) the resource-rich countries. Examples: Botswana has been hit hard because of its undiversified export and production structures (decline of real GDP by about 7 percent in 2009) Outputs of oil exporters, such as Angola and Equatorial Guinea, also collapsed. For Angola, the growth rate has declined from 14% in 2008 to stagnation in 2009, and for Equatorial Guinea from positive 12% in 2008 to negative 4.1% in 2009.
Varied Impacts on Growth across Countries (ii) Due to their limited integration into the global economy, low income and fragile countries had the smallest declines in growth in 2009. Examples: Only 7 African countries (Djibouti, Ethiopia, Malawi, Morocco, and Republic of Congo, Uganda and Tanzania) grew at 5% and above, and four of those are low income countries. Low income countries are coping relatively well with the crisis also partly because they continued to benefit from increased public investments in 2009. Slowdown of growth is particularly harmful for fragile and postconflict countries, given widespread poverty.
Varied Impacts across Countries (iii) 8 Resource rich economies were hit most Real GDP Growth 7 Emerging open economies were hit severely 7 6 2002-2008 (average) 2008 (actual) 2009 (projected) 6 5 2002-2008 (average) 2008 (actual) 2009 (projected) 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 Resource-rich Resource-poor, coastal Resource-poor, landlocked 0 Emerging and frontier markets Other sub-saharan Africa countries Source: African Economic Outlook database.
Impact on other macroeconomic variables Crisis came in a form of a massive external shock and resulted in a loss of up to 30% of export revenues in 2009. Despite some relief on the import bill (lower food and oil prices), the overall trade balance deteriorated in 2009. Most countries received a double hit through deteriorating current account and fiscal balance. The continent moved from a current account surplus of 3.4% of GDP in 2008 to a deficit around 4.0 percent in 2009. Oil exporters received the biggest hit as their terms of trade are projected to decline by 29% between 2008 and 2009
Africa better prepared to respond this time around Better Macroeconomic positions before this crisis 15 10 1986-1990 2004-2008 5 0-5 -10 Inflation (%) Current account balance (% of GDP) Gross int. reserves (months of imports) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) Average subsequent growth (%) Source: African Economic Outlook database.
African Governments Responded Decisively and Prudently Despite limited policy space, African countries responded prudently to the crisis Measures adopted include: fiscal stimulus packages easing of monetary policy targeted sectoral assistance external & domestic borrowing to finance infrastructure strengthening regulations in the banking sector
II. Bank s The response Bank s Response to the financial to the Crisis crisis ADB response to FC Support to ADF countries Emergency Liquidity Facility (ELF) Trade Finance Initiative (TFI) 20
The Bank s Responses to the Crisis The Bank has established several initiatives: The Emergency Liquidity Facility (ELF, USD 1.5 billion) to support eligible countries and non-sovereign operations in RMCs. The Trade Financing Facility (TFF, USD 1 billion) for African commercial banks and DFIs to support trade finance operations. The Accelerated Resource Transfer to ADF Countries to support low-income concessional borrowers through an accelerated use of currently available concessional resources. Enhanced Advisory and Advocacy role: Knowledge generation (analytical support); crisis monitoring and policy advice; advocating for greater Africa s voice; use convening capacity in collaboration with other pan-african institutions (AUC, UNECA) (e.g. Committee of Ten).
USING FISCAL POLICIES» Many African countries implemented a counter-cyclical fiscal stimulus» The stimulus were largely funded by domestic public-sector borrowing.» If the associated deficit were to exceed a level consistent with other policy objectives, such as containing inflation, then donor funds should be sought to finance the shortfall.
USING FISCAL POLICIES» Since economies in the region are operating well below full potential,» there will be little danger that increases in public expenditures would crowd out private expenditures. In fact, deficit spending should stimulate more private spending. But how the deficit is financed might influence the impact on inflation.» Monetizing the deficit would generate an increase in the money supply that should be sufficient to circulate the additional output that results from the increase in public expenditures. Hence, there is no major argument against financing a fiscal stimulus through borrowing money from the central bank.
USING FISCAL POLICIES» When expansionary fiscal policies are used to combat recession, there will likely be pressures to depreciate a country s exchange rate. The reason is a likely expansion of a country s trade deficit as the rise in incomes prompted by fiscal expansion is translated into higher imports.» Accordingly, exchange-rate management (managed float), might be needed to control depreciation that could in effect cause a sharp rise in the domestic price level as imports become more expensive in domestic currency terms.» Thus, the government should strike a balance at all levels
Policy Need to strike a policy balance Policy balancing in a growth acceleration context 1. Balance between growth and distribution 2. Balance between growth stimulation and macroeconomic stability 3. Balance between domestic and external growth drivers Policy balancing in a postcrisis context 1. Balancing short-term crisis recovery needs with policies to alleviate structural constraints to long-term growth 2. Balance between emergency external financing and strengthening the base for domestic resource mobilization 4. Balance between strengthening relationships with traditional partners and building new economic and financial cooperation (China and other emerging countries)
percent of GDP Slow structural transformation (cont.) Share of manufacturing in output, 1998 2008 (cont.) 18 16 14 Oil exporters Oil importers AFRICA Sub-Saharan Africa 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: African Economic Outlook database.
Days Infrastructure remains weak Time to get connected to electricity in 2009 (days) 500 450 400 350 300 SSA average 250 200 OECD average 150 100 50 0 Namibia Ivory Coast Cape Verde Tunisia Morocco Ethiopia Lesotho Botswana Seychelles Burkina Faso Gabon Niger Benin Malawi Central African Republic Tanzania Sierra Leone Source: African Economic Outlook database and OECD.
Business climate needs to improve further. Total regulatory costs as % of sales Source: African Development Bank and World Bank, Competitiveness Report.
Summing Up Unless the continent returns quickly to a high growth path, the global financial and economic crisis could degenerate into a development one. The key challenge is to reach at least the pre-crisis growth rates and regain the reform momentum. To prevent the crisis from derailing Africa from high growth trajectory, substantial external financial resources are required The continent will require about $50 billion over 2009-10 to bring the economies back to the pre-crisis rates of growth. Additional needs stem from longer-term development objectives such as: regional member countries demand for infrastructure (US$44 billion per year in LICs and US$88 billion per year in MICs; cost of addressing climate change in Africa (about US$40 billion a year, according to the Stockholm Research Institute); and private sector financing, among others.
If things stay as is, then the SSA (Sub-Saharan African) growth will be Key Factors Economic mismanagement and corruption challenged by: Political strife and unrest. Lack of diversification Economic growth will be inconsistent and poverty will grow as the region s population expands. Lack of infrastructure and productive social capital projects Thus, All countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will face significant risks to their economic future. Malaria, HIV and other diseases will dampen growth in many parts of Africa as war and strife will continue to plague wide sections of the region.
CONCLUSIONS The crisis poses a challenge for Africa: It has derailed progress towards sustainable growth; It may have even delayed prospects of meeting the MDGs. But, it also presents opportunities To rethink Africa s growth strategies To put Africa at the center of global debates
CONCLUSIONS The policy reforms of the last decade formed the basis for resilience, thus, Africa must stay the course and deepen reforms. At the global level, there is need for greater policy coordination enhanced Africa s voice and representation. The African Development Bank can play a major role in advancing these goals.
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