Quarterly Asylum Report

European Asylum Support Office EASO Quarterly Asylum Report Quarter 4, 2013 SUPPORT IS OUR MISSION

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 2 Contents Summary... 4 Numbers of asylum applicants in EU+... 5 Main countries of origin of applicants for international protection... 6 Profile of applicants for international protection in Europe... 8 Where were asylum applications lodged in Europe?... 9 Section 2: Trends in asylum decisions... 10 Level of protection accorded... 12 Type of protection given... 14 Number of pending cases... 18 Section 3: Key trends in focus... 21 Syria... 21 Western Balkans... 25 Afghanistan... 28 Annex Statistical overview... 32 Overview of Asylum applicants, withdrawn applications and pending cases registered in EU+ by main citizenship, 2012 Q3-2013 Q4... 32 Overview of first instance decisions issued in EU+ by main citizenship, 2012 Q2-2013 Q3... 33

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 3 Introduction The EASO Quarterly Asylum Report is produced by EASO s Centre for Information, Documentation and Analysis. It aims to provide an overview of key asylum trends by analyzing data regarding applications for international protection made by asylum seekers and decisions 1 made on those applications by European Member States and Associated countries 2. The analysis is based on bulk data 3 submitted to Eurostat as per Art.4 of European Regulation 862/2007 and downloaded by EASO on 19 th of March 2013. 1 Data on first instance decisions is provided quarterly by Member States and Associated countries to Eurostat with a 2-month deadline for submission, explaining the delay with which EASO reports based on this data can be provided. 2 Referred to as EU+. Data are available for EU 28 and NO and CH. 3 Due to the rounding process to the closest 5 or 0 figures may differ when analysed separately (by EU+, citizenship, indicator).

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 4 Summary Trends in applications for international protection The total number of asylum applicants registered in the EU+ during Q4 2013 rose by 2% compared to Q3 thus reaching the highest level for any quarter since 2008, with 131,855 applicants. The number of Syrian applicants rose by 39% compared to the previous quarter and, with more than 20,000 applicants, Syrians became the largest single citizen group ever reported in any quarter. The highest absolute increase in terms of applications compared to Q3 was reported by Germany (+4,090; +11%), while the highest relative increase was registered by Estonia (+10; +66%). Trends in decisions on applications for international protection at first instance The number of first instance asylum decisions issued in the EU+ (102,765) increased by 15% compared to Q3. In comparison with Q4 2012, when 100,890 decisions were issued, a slight increase was also registered (+2%). The highest first instance recognition rates were recorded in Bulgaria (95% of 1545 decisions), Malta (84% of 690) and Romania (77% of 315) with the rate being over 50% in a further 6 EU+ countries. The overall protection level granted at first instance in the EU+ was 36% (4 percentage points higher than the annual rate for 2012); The number of pending cases at the end of Q4 reached 374,360, which represents a 9% increase compared to Q3. This is the largest caseload reported since the beginning of Eurostat data collection in 2008. Key trends in focus Inflow from Syria The number of asylum applicants coming from Syria continued to rise throughout Q4 and remained in the Top 3 countries of origin for 18 EU+ states. Western Balkans Western Balkan citizens for the 9 th consecutive quarter, remained the largest group of asylum applicants in the EU+ (23,445) As in past years, the fourth quarter represented the peak time of the of the year for applications from this group and recorded a 9% increase compared with Q3 ; Inflow from Afghans More than 8,000 asylum applicants were reported in Q3 - an increase of 21% compared to the number registered in Q3. This represents the second largest quarterly flow of Afghans to the EU+ in the last three years.

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 5 Section 1: Trends in applications for international protection Numbers of asylum applicants in EU+ The total number of asylum applicants continued to rise in the fourth quarter, reaching in absolute terms 131,855 applicants and representing a 2% increase compared to the previous quarter. This number set the new highest level since EU level data collection started in 2008. In the last two years, the increase has been steady, as shown by comparison with the number of applicants registered in Q4 in 2012 and 2011: +17% and +45% respectively. When considering previous years, the transition from the 3 rd to the 4 th quarter is generally marked by a rise in numbers of applications. Figure 1: Total and new applicants 4 in EU+ since January 2008 Figure 2 shows the monthly evolution of the number of asylum applicants in the last three years. Looking at the profile of the graphs, in 2013 the numbers of applicants for international protection were systematically (i.e. in every month) higher than those recorded in 2012 and 2011. With the exception of some months, 2013 was also marked by relatively steady increases. While February, November and December tend to be months where flows slow down due to the weather conditions, the decrease in August was primarily caused by reduced flows from Russia and the Western Balkans. 4 Total applicants: all persons having submitted an application for international protection as defined in Art.2(h) of Directive 2011/95/EU or having been included in such application as a family member. New applicants for international protection (as defined by Art.2(h) of Directive 2011/95/EU) are those who lodged an application for asylum for the first time in a given Member State during the reference period. When data for new applicants is not available on Eurostat total applicants are considered new applicants.

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 6 Figure 2: Total asylum applicants in EU+ since January 2011 monthly trend Main countries of origin of applicants for international protection Figure 3: Main countries of origin of asylum applicants, 4 th quarter 2012-4 th quarter 2013 While the top five citizenships (or group of citizenships) remained the same in the second half of 2013, the quarter under review saw a switch in position between Russia and Afghanistan. In Q4 2013, the composition of the five largest groups of asylum applicants registered in EU+ therefore consisted of: citizens from Western Balkans 5 countries, followed by Syria, Afghanistan, Eritrea and Russia. 5 Western Balkan countries Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, fyrom, Kosovo, Montenegro, Serbia

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 7 Western Balkans continued to be the largest group in the EU+ (more than 23,000) and to grow in Q4 2013, exceeding again the peak set during the previous quarter. Within this group patterns have been heterogeneous: while Kosovar applicants significantly decreased in the second half of the year, the number of Serbian, Bosnian and citizens of fyrom applying for international protection in the EU+ more than doubled in the same period, with most of these applications being made in Germany. Syrian applicants for international protections grew significantly in the fourth quarter, with roughly 6,000 more applicants in EU+ in absolute numbers. They became the largest single citizen group ever reported in any quarter (more than 20,000), representing the second largest flow after the Western Balkan group. While two thirds of this flow was concentrated in Sweden, Germany and Bulgaria, 18 EU+ countries overall registered Syrian citizens among the top 3 country of origin of asylum applicants in Q4. The numbers of applicants recorded as Stateless remained almost unchanged when compared to the previous quarter; however the numbers in the second half of the year were three times higher than the first half. According to information received from EU+ countries most of the new Stateless applicants were from the Palestinian diaspora residing long-term in Syria. Russian asylum applicants in the EU+ continued decreasing in the fourth quarter, down45% compared to Q3 2013, and attained absolute numbers comparable with the first half of 2012. The number of Russian applicants for international protection dropped significantly in the quarter under review especially in Germany and Poland, the countries the most affected by this flow, -with 55% and -71% respectively. Afghans seeking international protection in EU+ rose to more than 8,000 (+21%) in the fourth quarter of 2013, after three quarters of stable flows and represented the 3 rd largest flow in the period under review. Significant increases in applications from this group were registered by Hungary, Bulgaria, Italy and Austria. Figure 4: Main countries of origin of asylum applicants in EU+, percentage change Q3/Q4 2013 Source: Eurostat login: 26.03.2014

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 8 Profile of applicants for international protection in Europe Figure 5: Asylum applicants pyramid of age for selected countries of origin Source: Eurostat login: 26.03.2014 The above chart displays the profile (gender and age breakdown) of the Top 5 source countries of asylum applicants in Q3. The following differences are notable: The Syrian flow to the EU+ sees a large proportion of families, but also a significant number of single men; Russian and Serbian asylum applicants appear to overwhelmingly consist of families arriving with young children (0-13); this is usual for applicants coming from Russia and Serbia; The vast majority of Eritrean asylum applicants were young adult males, aged 18-34, though a significant proportion of applicants were also women of the same age; Afghanis were represented by large numbers of young males arriving in Europe, including a significant number of male UAMs, but also some families.

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 9 Where were asylum applications lodged in Europe? The chart below shows the changes in terms of absolute numbers of asylum applicants in the EU+ countries, in Q4 compared to Q3 of 2013. In terms of absolute numbers, Germany, Sweden and France were the main countries of destination, receiving 58% of all asylum applicants registered in the EU+ during the quarter, a four percentage point increase compared to the previous one. The highest increase in absolute numbers compared to Q3 was reported by Germany (+4,090; +11%), while the highest relative increase was reported by Estonia (+10; +66%). Bulgaria (+51%; 1,070), Italy (+16%; +1,275), Switzerland (+15%; +715), Sweden (+12%; +2,080), Netherlands (+14%; +625) also registered a significantly 6 higher number of applicants than in the previous quarter. Conversely, significant decreases comparing with the 2 nd quarter of 2013 were registered in Poland (-60%; -2,020) where the number of applicants more than halved, followed by Hungary (-37%; -1,650), Norway (-36%; -1,530) and Belgium (-17%; -980). Figure 6: Total asylum applicants in European destination countries in 3 rd and 4 th quarters 2013 6 More than 10% increase and 250 applicants compared to Q3 2013

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 10 Section 2: Trends in asylum decisions The map below displays the top 10 countries of origin in terms of number of applicants, the total number of decisions and the total number of positive decisions issued on claims from such nationalities in the EU+ countries in the 4 th quarter of 2013. Visually the nationalities can be clustered in two main sub groups: nationalities which are granted protection, both international and national, and nationalities whose claims are mainly rejected. The group Stateless, which is ranked 9 th, is not plotted in the map. Map 1: Main countries of origin of asylum applicants, first instance decisions and positive decisions issued in EU+ during 4th quarter 2014 Source: Eurostat data as of 21.01.2014 The bar chart below indicates the numbers of decisions issued by EU+ countries, the recognition rate 7 (%) and the type of protection granted. 7 The recognition rate at first instance is here defined as the ratio between the amount of positive first instance decisions issued (Geneva convention status, subsidiary protection status and authorization to stay for humanitarian reasons under national concerning international protection) and the number of all first instance decisions issued (positive decisions an rejections) in the reference period under review.

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 11 100% 90% 24,695 80% 70% 19,135 60% 50% 14,175 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 5,830 5,700 4,720 4,3053,980 3,800 3,525 3,335 2,515 1,545 1,210 730 690 685 590 325 315 280 235 230 50 45 35 30 25 25 10 DE FR SE IT BE NL CH UK NO AT EL DK BG HU FI MT ES PL CZ RO LU CY IE PT SK SI LT HR LV EE Geneva Convention Subsidiary Protection Humanitarian Protection Total decisions Figure 7: First instance decisions and type of decisions issued in EU+ during 4 th quarter 2014 Numbers of decisions During the quarter under review, the number of first instance asylum decisions issued in the EU+ (102,765) increased by 15% compared to Q3. In comparison with Q4 2012, when 100,890 decisions were issued, a slight increase was registered (+2%). Of all EU + countries, Germany (24,695, 24% of the total), France (19,135, 19% of the total), and Sweden (14,175, 14% of the total) recorded the highest number of decisions this quarter accounting for more than half of all decisions issued in the EU+ in Q4. Italy (5,830, 6% of the total), Belgium (5,700, 6%), the Netherlands (4720, 5%), Switzerland (4,305, 4%) and The United Kingdom (3,975, 4%), also issued significant numbers of decisions. While considering the increase of first instance decisions taken compared with the previous quarter, Bulgaria (+131%), Malta (103%) and Sweden (+42%) stand out. In the case of Bulgaria and Sweden this increase was mainly due to the increased number of applications in those countries and prioritization of procedures put in place in order to deal with the increasing pressure from Syrian applicants. In case of Malta, the reduced pressure from new arrivals, allowed the country to deal with their pending caseload.

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 12 Level of protection accorded In Q4, the level of protection accorded amounted to 36%, 4 percentage points more than the annual rate registered for 2012 8. Nine countries issued positive decisions in more than 50% of cases in Q4: Bulgaria (95% of 1545 decisions), Malta (84% of 690), Romania (77% of 315), Sweden (61% of 14,175), Italy (61% of 5,830), Netherlands (66% of 4,720), Switzerland (54% of 4,305), Norway (54% of 3,800) and Denmark (51% of 2,515). When looking at the recognition rate for each Member State, important variations can be noticed. These may be caused by diverse factors such as: different countries of origin of asylum seekers; policy in terms of which countries or regions of origin are considered safe countries ; national legislation on humanitarian protection; profiles of the applicants and grounds of individual cases. 8 The recognition rate for the year 2012 (32%) differs from the one presented in the EASO annual report for 2012 (28%) due to a revision (after 5 May 2013) made by 2 MS. These revisions produced a 4 percentage points increase in the overall protection rate in the EU+.

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 13 100% 90% 80% Syria 100% 90% 80% Afghanistan 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 100% 90% 80% Q1 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012 Eritrea Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 0% 100% 90% 80% Q1 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012 Russia Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% Q1 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 0% Q1 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Serbia Rejected Humanitarian protection 50% Subsidiary protection 40% 30% Geneva convention 20% 10% 0% Q1 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Figure 8: Evolution of first instance decisions issued on the top 5 countries of origin since Q1 2011; Source: Eurostat data as 26.03.2014 The graphs above display the evolution of the type of decisions made by national first instance bodies for 5 main countries of origin at EU level: positive decisions (Geneva Convention, subsidiary protection and national humanitarian status) or rejections (from Q1 2011 to Q4 2013). In 2013, the protection rate of Syrians remained slightly lower than the level recorded throughout in 2012, but was still around 90% (see Section 3 for details). More than half of the decisions issued by the EU+ in Q4 involving Afghani applicants were positive. The graph shows that the rate and choice of regime has remained fairly stable since Q1 2011, while there is a slight but sustained increase in the positive decision rate mainly driven by an increase in the number of decisions granting Geneva Convention status. Applicants from Eritrea had a recognition rate of 81% in Q4 2013, a 4 percentage point increase compared with the recognition rate from Q3 2013. This was due to an increase in the use of refugee status as type of protection granted to Eritreans, which reached 52% of the total first instance decisions in the fourth quarter.

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 14 The number of decisions issued in Q4 to Russian applicants remained at the same level of the previous quarter (more than 8,000), while the applications halved in the same period. In the 4 th quarter, more Russians were granted refugee Status and the positive protection rate rose at 13% from 9% of the previous one. Applicants for international protection from Serbia were the fifth most numerous in EU+ Countries in the last quarter of 2013. Only 2% of the decisions however were granted a sort of protection, matching the average quarterly level of the last three years. Type of protection given The use of Geneva Convention and Humanitarian protection remained similar to the levels recorded in the previous quarter, while grants of Subsidiary protection increased compared to the same period, mainly due to its use in the cases involving Syrian applicants. In the EU+, during Q4, the share of positive Geneva Convention decisions issued made up 16% of all first instance decisions issued (the annual average in 2012 was 14%), Subsidiary protection 16% (up from 11% in 2012), and 5% for humanitarian protection (down from 7% in 2012) 9. Geneva Convention Decision In relative terms, Ireland (100%), the United Kingdom (91%), France (80%), Norway (80%) and Luxembourg (80%) gave Refugee Status in a very large proportion of the positive decisions they issued. The table below shows the countries of origin of asylum applicants who were most often granted refugee status under Geneva Convention during Q4 2013. 9 Again, the figures here were affected by the update of decision figures in Eurostat by IT and NL provided after the date of publication of the EASO annual report. The humanitarian protection rate thus went up to 7% from 2%.

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 15 Table 1: Positive decisions issued in selected EU+ countries, using the Geneva Convention, by country of origin of asylum applicants; Subsidiary protection The highest use of subsidiary protection among positive decisions issued during Q4 was registered in Lithuania (100%), Malta (97%), Cyprus (93%), Bulgaria (89%), Czech Republic (86%) and Sweden (75%).

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 16 Table 2: Positive decisions issued in selected EU+ countries, using Subsidiary Protection, by country of origin of asylum applicants; The table above shows the principal countries of origin of the asylum seekers who were in the EU+ countries making most use of subsidiary protection. National protection for humanitarian reasons The Netherlands (48%), Switzerland (45%) and Italy (35%) were the main European countries to grant humanitarian protection among their positive decisions issued in Q4, based on their national legislation.

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 17 Table 3: Positive decisions issued in selected EU+ countries, granting Humanitarian Status, by country of origin of asylum applicants; Source: Eurostat login: 26.03.2014

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 18 Number of pending cases The number of pending cases at the end of December 2013 (374,360) increased by 9% compared to the level registered at the end of September 2013 (342,345) 10. Figure 9: Stock of pending cases at the end of each year/month 11 Germany (134,015), Greece (49,830) and France (38,915) reported the highest number of pending cases at the end of December 2013. Figure 10: Stock of pending cases by main countries of origin as of 31 st December 2013 10 Pending cases is a time-dependent indicator providing a snapshot of the situation on a particular day. 11 No data available for Cyprus (May 2011-2013 Q4 excluding Dec 2012), Romania (February to December 2013) and The Netherlands (2012-2013). No data at end of December for Poland, end of November is used instead.

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 19 Further to the large influx in the fourth quarter and despite the prioritization measures implemented by several EU+ Countries, Syrians moved into the Top 3 of the largest groups of asylum applicants that had not yet received a decision, while Afghani and Pakistani remained at their respective positions. Another significant change in this quarter concerned citizens from Serbia and Eritrea, who moved from the 8 th to 5 th position and from 10 th to 7 h position respectively. Nigeria entered the top ten countries of origin in terms of pending cases at the end of December 2013. Figure 11: Percentage change in pending cases from 30 th September 2013 to 31 st December 2013 by main countries of origin The bar chart above shows the most significant changes in pending applications for Top 10 countries of origin identified during Q4 2013 compared to Q3 2013. The new record flow of more than 20,000 Syrians during the quarter under review led to an increase of 29% in the number of pending cases (+6,225). Sweden, Germany and Bulgaria had the highest share of this caseload. As for Syrians, the rise in the number of applicants from Serbia in the 4 th quarter also pushed the stock of pending cases (+38%) up. Germany deals with 87% of this caseload. Thanks to a decrease in applications and a high number of decisions taken on Russian applicants, the number of pending cases at the end of December decreased for the first time after 5 consecutive quarters of growth.

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 20 Figure 12: Percentage change in pending cases from 30 th September 2013 to 31 st December 2013 by reporting country Source: Eurostat login: 26.03.2014 12 By far, the highest relative increase in terms of pending cases in the fourth quarter was registered in Portugal. Because of an unprecedented flow of Syrian applicants for Portugal in December, the number of pending cases increased by three times in the period under review though absolute numbers were not large. Bulgaria (+45%), Italy (+42%), Germany (+20%) and Greece (18%), registered a significant increase in pending cases compared to three months earlier. Hungary (-40%) and Denmark (- 34%) registered the largest decreases. 12 No data available for, Netherlands, Cyprus, Poland and Romania in Q3 2013

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 21 Section 3: Key trends in focus Syria Syrian applicants were by far the largest single country of origin at EU+ level in the fourth quarter (20,660). However, these numbers represent a very small percentage of the total number of Syrians seeking international protection in the region, now estimated by UNHCR at 2.5m persons. In the last three months of 2013, EU+ countries registered the highest quarterly inflow of Syrian applicants since 2008, averaging close to 7,000 per month in the period under review. Syrian applicants increased by 38% compared to the previous quarter, mainly because of the claims 13 registered by Sweden and Bulgaria. Map 2: Distribution of Syrian asylum applicants in EU+, 4 th quarter 2014 13 More than 1000 applicants in Q4 compared to Q3 2013

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 22 As shown in figure 13 the Syrian flow in Q4 2013 remains concentrated in Sweden (6,800), Germany (4,425) and Bulgaria (2,465); those three Member States totalled 66% of the overall applications made by Syrians in Q4 in the EU+. Moreover, Syria was in the Top 3 countries of origin for 18 EU+ States on the 4 th quarter of 2013. Compared to the previous quarter the flow has not spread out over Europe, but has increased in term of magnitude. Figure 13: Distribution of Syrian asylum applicants in European destination countries The link between migratory movements (i.e. border crossings) and asylum applications lodged by Syrians remains unclear. While, on one side, large numbers of Syrians are reported by EU institutions and national authorities as being detected entering the national territory of Greece and Italy, these two countries had fairly low numbers of Syrians applying for international protection. On the other side, Bulgaria was under intense pressure during Q4 due to high numbers of Syrians crossing the land border with Turkey and applying for asylum in its territory. In Q4 2013 Bulgaria reported 2,465 Syrian applicants, an increase of 89% compared to Q3, when 1,160 applicants were registered. The ongoing conflict situation in the country, together with the large number of Syrians already displaced in the neighbouring countries such as Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey make it likely that the flow will continue towards the EU+, but it is impossible to make any estimate of its probable size.

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 23 Decision Trends In the last quarter of 2013 the share of positive decisions issued for Syrian applicants remained at the same level recorded in the Q3, 90%. In reality, this figure is likely to be a statistical artifact since some states report implicit withdrawals of asylum applications (i.e. where the applicant is no longer contactable by the state) as negative decisions and others do this in regard to Dublin cases 14. Moreover, it is also possible that the citizenship of asylum seekers claiming to be Syrians is not being updated in statistics after the true nationality is assessed. Thus the true protection rate for Syrians is likely to be closer to 100%. Figure 14: Syrian recognition rate EU+ countries distribution 2013; (only countries that issued more than 300 decisions in 2013 are displayed); During the year of 2013 there were no significant differences between the protection rates granted to Syrians by different EU+ countries, with the notable exceptions of Switzerland in the first quarter and Italy in the second. The type of protection regime used by EU+ countries with regard to Syrians differs substantially as can be seen in Figure 15. 14 Indeed this was the instruction according to Eurostat guidelines until their revision in December 2013.

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 24 Figure 15: Positive decisions issued to Syrians in 2013 (only countries where more than 300 decisions were issued in 2013 are displayed) Source: Eurostat data as of login: 26.03.2014 At the end of the year 2013 the stock of pending cases for Syrian applicants in the EU+ countries was 28,710, a 29% increase compared to the end of Q3 2013 (22,255). Sweden, Germany and Bulgaria were in Q4 the 3 EU+ countries with the largest numbers of Syrian pending applications.

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 25 Western Balkans When considered together, applicants from the 6 Western Balkan countries (WB) continued for the 9 th consecutive quarterly period to outstrip numbers of applications from any single country of origin in the EU+, representing 18% of the Q4 total. Figure 16: Western Balkan applicants in EU+ countries, quarterly trend As in the past years when peaks occurred in the last quarter of each year, the fourth quarter of 2013 confirmed this trend and EU+ countries recorded a new highest level since 2008 (23,445). In particular a strong movement of Serbian applicants to EU+, more specifically to Germany, caused this sharp increase. Germany registered 88% (7,580) of all the Serbs reported in EU+. Applicants from Serbia and FYROM are largely of Roma ethnicity 15. After peaking in the second quarter of 2013, Kosovar applicants (mainly of Albanian ethnicity) continued declining in the last quarter of year with Germany (1,420), France (1,130) and Sweden (385) as their main countries of destination. In Q4 2013 Albanians applicants rose 40% compared to Q3 and mainly they claimed international protection in France (1,560), followed by Germany (715), United Kingdom (480) and Sweden (390). This represents a major difference when compared with the other five WB countries, which tend to choose Germany as the main country for lodging an application. 15 See EASO report «Asylum Applications from the Western Balkans : comparative analysis of trends, push-pull factors and responses «for details : http://easo.europa.eu/wp-content/uploads/bz0213708enc.pdf

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 26 Following these developments and in comparison with Q3 2013, the proportion of Serbs and Albanians in the WB flow increased by 4 percentage points, while Kosovars shrunk further from 25% to 16%. Figure 17: Composition of Western Balkan inflows in Q4 2013; The WB flow to Germany rose by 18% compared to the previous period (Q3 2013) and so did the share in the EU+ total, which reached 69% from 61% in Q3. The majority of Western Balkan applicants in Germany are Serbs (49%), followed by nationals of fyrom (23%), Bosnians (13%), Kosovars (9%), Albanians (5%) and Montenegrins (1%). Figure 18: Distribution of Western Balkan applicants in EU+, 3 rd and 4 th quarter 2013 Source: Eurostat login: 26.03.2014 The flow of WB nationals coming to EU+ is very hard to predict. Proximity and the option of free movements in the EU+ allow the WB nationals to target specific Member States, based on their own interest. According to the EASO s report on Asylum applicants from the Western Balkans, economic factors tend to determine the choice of the destination country.

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 27 Decision rates More than 97% of all the decisions issued in Q4 2013 on applications lodged by WB nationals had a negative outcome. For the whole of 2013 the rejection rate was 96%; only a few EU+ countries issued positive decisions in the last year, with only France, Italy and United Kingdom issuing more than 200 positive decisions in 2013 on WB applications. Germany, France and Sweden together dealt with 87% of all the applications made by WB nationals in Q4 2013; the figure below displays the rejection rate for WB citizens in those countries. There are no significant differences except between France and Germany for citizens from Bosnia, Serbia and Montenegro. Figure 19: First instance rejection rate, 2013 Despite the fact that most EU+ countries prioritise WB cases, at the end of 2013, 46,495 applicants from Western Balkans were still awaiting a decision, an increase of 19% when compared with the figures recorded at the end of Q3 2013. The main receiving countries Germany, France and Sweden are also those with the highest numbers of pending cases.

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 28 Afghanistan In Q4 Afghan asylum applicants moved up two positions to rank as the country of origin with the 3 rd largest numbers of asylum applicants in EU+ Countries. EU+ countries reported a 21% increase in Afghan applications compared to Q3. Compared to the same quarter in 2012 a 1% increase can be noted. Figure 20: Afghani total and new asylum applicants; Source: Eurostat login: 26.03.2014 During the first three quarters of 2013, the flow towards EU+ countries remained stable at an average of 6,200 per quarter - lower than the quarterly average of both 2012 and 2011, before recording the second highest level in three years in Q4. Although numbers tend to be higher in the last quarter of each year, 2013 saw a significant deterioration in the security situation of the country. Both the number of attacks from Taliban forces and the number of civilian casualties significantly increased during the year, making 2013 one of the worst years since 2001 16. This coupled with the foreseen withdrawal of ISAF at end of 2014, may contribute to further worsen the security sentiment in the population and maybe lead to important flows also in the beginning of 2014. 16 UNSC,Report of the Secretary-General on the protection of civilians in armed conflict [S/2013/689]

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 29 Map 3: Distribution of Afghans asylum applicants in EU+, 4 th quarter 2014 In the quarter under review, Germany and Hungary received the highest share of Afghans with 28% and 14% of the total respectively. Big increases in Afghan applicants were registered by EU States situated on the route towards central Europe: Bulgaria (+485%), Hungary (+204%), Italy (+59%) and Greece (17%). Romania reported applicants from Afghanistan for the first time after 4 consecutive quarters. As in 2012, Germany, Sweden and Austria, remained the main destination countries in 2013.

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 30 Decision rates In the fourth quarter of 2013, 55% of all first instance decisions issued by the EU+ States on applications lodged by Afghans resulted in positive outcomes; a 1 percentage point increase compared with the recognition rate from Q3 2013. Rejected Refugee status Subsidiary protection Humanitarian protection Figure 21: First instance positive decision rates by type of protection accorded, quarterly trend; Compared to the first quarter of 2011 the increase in the protection given has been slow but steady, particularly in the form of refugee status. Analysing the type of protection granted by the EU+ states to Afghans applicants in the fourth quarter shows that 22%% of all first instance decisions resulted in refugee status, while for subsidiary protection this share was about 21%. EU+ countries provided humanitarian protection according to their national legislation in 12% of cases. The highest numbers of first instance decisions issued in Q4 were reported by Germany (1310), followed by Sweden (675), Austria (600), Belgium (600), Italy (505) and Greece (290). Altogether, these States made more than 70% of all the decisions related to Afghan applicants.

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 31 Figure 22: Afghan recognition rate EU+ countries distribution 2013; (Countries are ordered by total number of decision issued; only countries that issued more than 300 decisions in 2013 are displayed); During the year of 2013 there were significant differences between the protection rates granted to Syrians by different EU+ countries, with four countries exceeding the EU+ average of 53%. The range is also quite large, going from recognition rate of less than 10% in Greece to more than 90% In Italy. At end of December 2013, 34,260 asylum applicants from Afghanistan were awaiting a decision in the EU+; this represents the largest pending caseload in the EU+ for a single country of origin. Compared to the situation at the end of September 2013, this means a 5% increase in the number of Afghan pending cases. Germany (14,815), Austria (6,250) and Greece (3,395) had 72% of the total number of pending cases involving Afghan applicants. Bulgaria (+157%) and Hungary (+121%) more than doubled their stock of Afghan applicants awaiting a decision on their case compared to the situation at the end of September 2013.

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 32 Annex Statistical overview Overview of Asylum applicants, withdrawn applications and pending cases registered in EU+ by main citizenship, 2012 Q3-2013 Q4 Note: 1) Kosovo: this designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244. 2) fyrom: the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.

EASO QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2013 33 Overview of first instance decisions issued in EU+ by main citizenship, 2012 Q3-2013 Q4 Note: 1) Kosovo: this designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244. 2) fyrom: the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.