Update Jan 2010 HUMAN RACE In the 6 seconds it takes you to read this sentence, 24 13 people will be added to the Earth s population. o Before you ve finished this letter, that number will reach 1000. 200 Within an hour 11,000. 8726 By the day s end 209,000 260,000. Before you go to bed two nights from now, the net growth in human numbers will be enough to fill a city the size of San ~Reno Francisco. It took four million years for humanity to reach the 2 billion mark. Only 30 years to add a third billion. And now we re increasing by 95 75 million every single year. No wonder they call it the human race. Update Jan 2008 Source: Zero Population Growth 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 320, Washington, DC 20036 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s c4hxpxnrz0 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftzneizrk Lg&feature=channel Who is Hans Rosling? 1
Population growth 212,907 per day 1AD- 200 million 8,871 per hour 1800-1 billion 2.5 per second 1930 2 billion ~1/2 1999- the 6 world s billion population is under 25 Exponential growth US 1 birth every 8 seconds 1 death every 12 second 1 migrant every 36 seconds 2
Current Status (2004/2006/2008/2010) World Population Size: 6.4/6.6/6.7/6.8 billion World Growth Rate: 1.14% 6,700,000,000 * 0.0114= 75,000,000 6,895,000,000 * 0.0114= 78, 603, 000 ½ the world s population is <25 U.S. Population Size: 293/301/305/308/312 million Less developed countries ~150 of them, 80% of the world s population, use 20% resources Developed countries ~ 33 or them, 20% of the world s population, use 80% resources Developing versus developed country- Low per capita food intake High BR and infant mortality Low life expectancy Low per capita GNP Low industrialization Low energy use per capita High illiteracy rates 3
http://www.nationmaster.com/red/graph/ene_usa_per_perenergy-usage-per-person&b_map=1# Factors that contribute to high population growth rates in developing countries education (especially education of women); importance of child labor; Lack of social stature and employment opportunities for women; infant mortality; average age of marriage; No social security or pension plan; availability of reliable birth control; availability of legal abortions; religious beliefs, traditions, & cultural norms that encourage large families. 4
Environmental impacts? I=P*A*T 1. Developed countries Per capita resource consumption and pollution are high Rich enough to afford to be concerned about environment 2. Developed/Developing countries economic growth Resource exploitation 3. Developing countries Survival mode Their resources are limited Political system is often corrupt Large population increases, land degradation, extreme poverty Population statistics Demography Study of population structure t and growth Birth rate Death rate % annual growth Immigration and emigration Doubling time and exponential growth 5
US example BR= 14/1000 DR= 8/1000 Growth rate? 0.6% actual is 1% www.census.gov Calculating Population Change Growth rate Death rate Emigration rate R % = ((b d) + (i e)) x 100 Birth rate Immigration rate Birth (b), Death (d), Immigration (i) and Emigration (e) are calculated per 1000 people 6
Change in Population Size Change in Population Size 3 million added per year ~1 million immigrants Total growth 1% 40% due to immigration 7
Population Increase in Mexico BR=20 DR=5 EMMIGRATION =4 GR=1.1% DOES THIS MAKE SENSE??? Emigration Economic- Mexican to US Political-African, Iraq Environmental problems-lack of resources, deterioration of agricultural lands, drought-- Africa 8
World population growth rate Worldwide 1.10% Top 10 Countries country Population million China 1330 (0.6%) India 1148 (1.6%) US 304 (1%) Indonesia 237 Brazil 196 Pakistan 172 Bangladesh 154 Nigeria 142 (2.0%) Russia 140 Japan 127 #19 Iran 65 million (0.8%) # 41 Iraq 28 million (2.6%) France 0.4 % Japan, Spain 0.1% Germany 0.0 % Rwanda 2.4% Kenya 1.6% 9
Total fertility rate versus Replacement fertility rate TFR- Average number of children a woman in her reproductive years is expected to have in her lifetime U.S. = 2.1 Rwanda = 5.1 Avg. world wide = 2.6 Replacement Fertility Rate=2.1 Demographic Stages Pre-industrial Stage Birth and death rates high Modest population growth Transitional Stage Lowered death rate Rapid population growth Industrial Stage Birth rate decline Population growth slow Post Industrial Stage Low birth and death rates Population growth very slow 10
Demographic Stages Age Structure The number and proportion of people at each age in a population 11
Demographics Table 8.2 look of at Specific specific countries Countries 12
Iran Population 65.4 million TFR 1.7 BR 17/1000 DR 6/1000 Emigration 3/1000 Growth Rate 0.7% 50 years ago New population policyeducation, Modest fertility- economic Late and social stage benefits of Shah of regime large Resurgence family Early gov of sponsored not marriage, Islam good Need family high large infant population planning mortality, to sustain high country fertility, high death rate 13
South Africa Population 44 million TFR 2.2 BR 18/1000 DR 22/1000 Emigration/Immigration~0 Growth Rate -0.5% What might hinder countries ability to go through demographic transition? 14
Changes in fertility rate in select countries Contraceptive Use Among Married Women of Reproductive Age 15
Reducing the Total Fertility Rate Three major influences on total fertility rate 1. Cultural traditions 2. Social & economic status of women 3. Family planning Environmental Resistance Carrying Capacity (K) Maximum # of individuals an environment can support without degradation of the ability to support future generations Not static Will decline as environment is degraded Can change with climate change Limiting factors set by the environment-- environmental resistance Prevent indefinite reproduction Unfavorable food, water, shelter, predation, etc. Negative feedback 16
Carrying capacity An area is overpopulated when its long-term carrying capacity is being degraded by its current occupants. Should carrying capacity be defined with respect to quality of life? population overshoots population crashes Reindeer on St. Matthew Island What is Earth s carrying capacity? carrying capacity Easter Island 17
Easter Island 4 lessons Humans overuse of resources Great difficulty noticing that things are going wrong-shrug off and adapt to Declining resources can undermine the organizational structures Radical impoverishment and simplication leads to extinction Government Policies and Fertility- China Largest population in the world Controversial Family Planning Policy 1971- Chinese Government pursued birth control seriously 1979- Incentives to promote later marriages and one-child families Medical care, schooling for child, preferential housing, retirement funds Brought about rapid and drastic decrease in fertility 18
Government Policies and Fertility- China Law controversial and unpopular Compromised freedom of choice Social pressure to abort a second child Pressure to abort/kill female first child More boys than girls in China Law more Law more relaxed in rural China 19
Government Policy and Fertility- India Severe population pressure 1950- first country with government-sponsored family planning Did not work due to language/cultural barriers 1976- introduced incentives and compulsory sterilization Unpopular and failure Recent years- government focused on education Much more effective, but TFR still above replacement level Government Policy and Fertility- Mexico Young age structure Huge potential ti for population growth: 33% of population is under age 15 Positive growth momentum 1974- government imparted educational reform, family planning, health care Very successful 20
Government Policy and Fertility- Europe and Japan Population concern Proportion elderly l people in population is increasing Due to low TFR Decrease in population could cause decrease economic growth Reduced work force Support for elderly U.S. Population Distribution 75% live in 350 metropolitan areas (cities & towns with at least 50,000000 people) almost 50% live in metropolitan areas containing 1 million or more people 21
Urbanization Urbanization-movement of people from rural to urban areas Urban Agglomeration Urbanized core region that consists of several adjunct cities or megacities and their surrounding developed suburbs United States Urban Agglomerations (Population of 50,000 or above) Where is it occurring? 22
Population and Urbanization Half of the world s population lives in urban areas Megacity population>10million 23
Environmental Problems in Urban Areas Fragmentation Industrial brownfields Water pollution Excessive use of energy Traffic congested streets Buildup of airborne emissions due to cars and industry Noise pollution Urban heat island Local heat buildup in an area of high population density Affect local air currents and weather conditions Contribute to buildup of pollutants- dust domes Isolation from the resources that support us 24
Urban Advantages concentrated impact mass transportation feasible recycling economically feasible birth rates are lower Urban Sprawl Expansive, rapid, and sometimes reckless, growth of a greater metropolitan area Development out over large amounts of land 25
Characteristics of sprawl- Exercise 25 Single-use zoning: physical separation of space used for different activities Low-density land use: puts long distances between homes, stores, and jobs Car dependent communities Scale of development: typically involves larger houses, wider roads and larger stores with expansive parking lots Homogeneity in design Obesity Air pollution Lack of planning and government supported transportation Separation of rich and poor Car..loss of time 26
NEMO University of Nevada Cooperative Extension Environmental Impacts of Automobile largest source of air pollution 15% of global carbon dioxide emissions 2/3 of the oil used in U.S. & 1/3 of the world s total makes urban sprawl possible in U.S. more land devoted to cars than housing cars becoming more fuel efficient, but people are driving more 27
How to reduce incentives to sprawl Minimize government expenditure on infrastructure in outlying areas Remove obstacles to reusing centrally loaned properties or make it easier (credit, tax breaks) Make transportation costs reflect cost to society Make driving more expensive Raise the price of parking 28