1 At the Center of the Storm (or why it is hard to watch live TV this fall) April 8, 2011
U.S. Politics: 2018 Edition 2
3 Who Has the Advantage? DEM Presidential mid-term Trump approval at 43% DEMs more engaged Right Direction is 41% Generic ballot +8 DEM In all special elections for Congress, DEM candidate has run higher than Clinton 16 GOP Mid-term turnout likely to drop in DEM constituencies Trump at 82% among GOP Unemployment at 3.9% Source: Real Clear Politics (RCP)
4 Presidents and Mid-Terms: A Rocky Marriage Year President Approval House Seats Senate Seats 1978 Carter 43% -15-3 1982 Reagan 42% -26 +1 1986 Reagan 64% -5-8 1990 Bush 73% -8-1 1994 Clinton 40% -52-8 1998 Clinton 62% +5 0 2002 Bush 66% +8 +2 2006 Bush 42% -30-6 2010 Obama 44% -63-6 2014 Obama 42% -13-9 Average loss if approval < 50%: House -33 Senate -4
National Landscape 5 U. S. House 236 GOP 193 DEM 6 Open U. S. Senate 51 GOP 49 DEM Can the President reverse the historical trend of election losses in the first mid-term?
6 U.S. House GOP Battle To Retain 218 Seats GOP DEM 176 Safe Seats 188 Safe Seats 18 Open Seats 6 Open Seats 11 Lean DEM or worse 1 Lean GOP or worse 4 Toss-Up 2 Toss-Up 3 Lean GOP 3 Lean DEM 46 Incumbents 4 Lean DEM or worse 23 Toss-Up 19 Lean GOP WI-01 MN 03 MN 02 1 Incumbent Lean DEM MN 08 MN 01
7 Breaking Down Four Key Congressional Seats Congress 2016 President 2016 CD 1 CD 2 CD 3 CD 8 Walz +0.8% Trump +13% Lewis +1.8% Trump +1.2% Paulsen +14% Clinton +9.4% Nolan +0.6% Trump +15% MN House Margin 2016 R +12% R +6.7% R +6.2% R +2.0% Secretary of State 2014 Severson +8.7% Severson +7.5% Severson +7.6% Simon +1.0% U.S. Senate 2012 Klobuchar +30% Klobuchar +27% Klobuchar +28% Klobuchar +35% Five Thirty Eight Forecast Hagedorn 65% Craig 76% Phillips 85% Stauber 55%
8 U.S. Senate: Slim Path for Democrats GOP: 47 Safe Seats DEM: 42 DEM Defense? Nelson (FL) * Donnelly (IN) * McCaskill (MO) * Tester (MT) * Heitkamp (ND) * Menendez (NJ) Manchin (WV) * * Trump states DEM Pick-Ups Open Seat (AZ) * Heller (NV) * Open Seat (TN) * Cruz (TX) * * Trump states McCain seat (AZ) filled by Jon Kyl through Nov. 2020
9 Minnesota: Likely DEM Territory in U.S. Senate Amy Klobuchar (D) RCP: +22% Jim Newberger (R) Tina Smith (D) RCP: +7% Karin Housley (R) Source: Real Clear Politics (RCP)
10 Can Both Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith Win? States have held simultaneous U.S. Senate elections 54 times 46 one-party sweeps, 8 split decisions Last split decision: South Carolina 1966 Popular DEM Gov. Fritz Hollings: 60% Incumbent Strom Thurmond switches to GOP: 62% Key factors Klobuchar s margin of victory Limited importance of Smith seat to Senate GOP Trump approval is -17 in MN Five Thirty Eight Prediction: Smith 90% chance of winning
11 Critical Governor s Race FAST FACTS No Greater MN candidate has won a gubernatorial election since 1986 Tim Walz (D) RCP: +7% Democrats have never controlled the MN Governor s office for nine straight years No MN Governor has been elected while serving as a county commissioner Source: Real Clear Politics (RCP) Jeff Johnson (R) In 2014, Jeff Johnson defeated Mark Dayton in 12 of the 19 counties entirely in CD 1
12 State Senate: One For All the Marbles MN Senate District 13 Jeff Howe (R) FAST FACTS ABOUT SD 13 Trump won with 63% of the vote Amy Klobuchar: 61% Steve Simon: 34% Joe Perske (D) GOP 33 DFL 33 Michele McDonald barely lost the district in her 2016 race for Supreme Court
13 Battle for MN House What is the DFL Path to 68 Seats? Safe Seats GOP 57 DFL 48 DFL needs 20 seats Protect Incumbents (5) Marquart Sauke Koegel Pryor Halverson 19A 20B 04B 25B 37A 48A 51B Retain Open Seats (4) 49B 57A Make Dent in Trump Wall (8) Bliss Layman Knoblach Baker Bennett Open Seat West Open Seat 05A 05B 14B 17B 27A 36A 37B 55A In 11 of last 22 MN House elections, a shift of 10+ seats has occurred. Win Clinton Districts (4) D. Smith 34B Jessup Anselmo Franke 42A 49A 54A Defeat Suburban GOP Women (8) Pugh Lohmer Anderson Loon Barr Fenton Peterson Wills 33B 39B 44A 48B 52B 53B 56B 57B
14 Wild Cards for November 2018 1. Kavanaugh confirmation 2. #MeToo candidates 3. Mueller investigation 4. Impact of tariffs 5. Health insurance stability 6. International incident?