Trends in humanitarian and development assistance in a rapidly changing global context Tony German Executive Director Development Initiatives www.devinit.org
Produce accessible data, analysis and infographics An independent organisation working for the eradication of absolute poverty Our mission is to empower and enable people to make evidence-based and data-informed decisions to deliver more effective use of resources for poverty eradication Offices in Bristol (UK), Nairobi (Kenya) and within partners DRT, Kampala (Uganda)
International architecture: G8 to G20 G7+ From DAC to post-busan Global Partnership Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Indonesia, Gulf States, Foundations, private sector 95 non DAC countries contributed to tsunami distinction between donor and recipient will become history, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Korea, bail outs changing pattern of resources MDGs to High Level Panel and UN post 2015 settlement Open data and IT empowers even very poor and crisisaffected people to provide feedback, demand accountability, pursue opportunity Humanitarian community views on post 2015?
Extreme $1.25 a day poverty is falling: from 40% in 1981, to 25% in 2008 2015 & 2025: World Bank projections
If nothing changes, it will be 2080 before extreme poverty is eradicated a continuing humanitarian crisis
Brazil: President Dilma has committed to eradicating absolute poverty by 2015
Big resource mix with potential to eliminate $1.25/$2 a day poverty and reduce vulnerability to natural or manmade shocks that cause crisis and can leave people in intergenerational poverty Foreign direct investment ODA Portfolio equity Humanitarian aid Other official flows Development finance institutions Public and private debt flows NGOs South-South cooperation Remittances Source: Development Initiatives based on World Bank, UNCTAD, IMF, UN, OECD DAC, annual reports
Afghanistan resource mix shows how modest humanitarian and development assistance is compared to military & security spending Source: Development Initiatives based on OECD DAC and SIPRI
The number of non-dac humanitarian donors has been growing in the last decade... Number of donors 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 52 54 non-dac donors reporting to the FTS DAC donors reporting to the FTS 47 41 40 95 57 70 92 101 130 20 0 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 2000.0 2001.0 2002.0 2003.0 2004.0 2005.0 2006.0 2007.0 2008.0 2009.0 2010.0 Source: Development Initiatives based on UN OCHA FTS and OECD DAC
Non-DAC humanitarian volumes up to 10% of global humanitarian spend, somewhat volatile, but very significant for some recipients and growing in influence 1000 10% 900 9% 800 8% US$ million 700 600 500 400 300 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% % of NDD HA from non-dac donors, volume HA from non-dac donors, % of total HA 200 2% 100 1% 0 2000.0 2001.0 2002.0 2003.0 2004.0 2005.0 2006.0 2007.0 2008.0 2009.0 2010.0 2011.0 0% Source: Development Initiatives based on UN OCHA FTS and OECD DAC
Aid as % public expenditure 2010
Non-DAC donor humanitarian aid contributions to Yemen, Bangladesh and Maldives compared with DAC donor contributions, 2006-2009 7186% 874% 10542% 1768% 17247% 7544% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Non-DAC donors DAC donors Source: Development initiatives based on UN OCHA FTS and OECD DAC data, US$ million
...with Gulf states representing the majority of non DAC humanitarian flows US$ million 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000.0 2001.0 2002.0 2003.0 2004.0 2005.0 2006.0 2007.0 2008.0 2009.0 2010.0 2011.0 Gulf states EU 12 BRICS All other donors Source: Development Initiatives based on UN OCHA FTS
Non DAC aid still a modest but growing part of global picture and aid overall has risen over the decade US$ billion (constant 2010 prices) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 ODA like flows from non- DAC countries ODA from DAC countries 0 2000.0 2001.0 2002.0 2003.0 2004.0 2005.0 2006.0 2007.0 2008.0 2009.0 2010.0 2011.0 Source: Development Initiatives based on UN OCHA FTS and OECD DAC
Non DAC donors channel more humanitarian aid through governments 1,200 1,000 800 Share of HJA through public sector 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 9% Other US$ million 600 Multilateral organisation s 400 NGOs 200 Public sector 0 2000.0 2001.0 2002.0 2003.0 2004.0 2005.0 2006.0 2007.0 2008.0 2009.0 2010.0 2011.0 Source: Development initiatives based on UN OCHA FTS and OECD DAC
Donors prioritise different countries for different reasons ODA and HA shares to Oceania, 2007-11 35% 30% Share of total 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Australia Other DAC donors 0% HA ODA 40% ODA and HA shares to the Great Lakes region, 2007-11 Share of total 30% 20% 10% 0% ODA HA Belgium Other DAC donors Source: Development initiatives based on OECD DAC data
HA from all donors 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% HA from Gulf States 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: Development initiatives based on UN OCHA FTS and OECD DAC
For some countries humanitarian aid is more relevant than development aid.. 80% 70% HA as a % of total ODA 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Libya Korea, Dem. Rep. Sudan South Asia, regional Zimbabwe Source: Development Initiatives based on OECD DAC