MYANMAR IN TRANSITION Thailand s business opportunities in new context.
REFORMS IN MYANMAR New Constitutio n in 2008 General Elections in 2010 By-elections in 2012 with NLD participation NCA Signing in 2015 followed by Union Peace Conference in JAN 2016 General Elections on 8 NOV 2015
TRANSITION TIMELINE 8 NOV 2015 General Elections 1 FEB 2016 New Parliament 17 MAR 2016 Presidential College 1 APR 2016 New Government
POLITICS OF TRANSITION Political Negotiation Relationship between NLD and Military Role of Military in Politics ASSK Presidency
PROSPECTS OF SMOOTH TRANSITION Smooth Transition NLD s Compromis NLD s Expectatio e between Capability n NLD and to Run the Manageme Military Country nt
CHALLENGES OF NLD GOVERNMENT Living Standard Peace Process Communal conflict External Pressure Political Challenges to Cross Over in Short/Medium Terms
NLD POLICY ORIENTATION Promoting Human Rights and Democracy Western Values Focused Upholding Environmental and Social Concerns Fostering National Development
SECURITY CHALLENGES RELATED TO THAILAND Peace Process Narcotics Myanmar Workers Irregular Migration Human Trafficking
OPPORTUNITIES FOR BILATERAL COOPERATION Capacity Building & Development Cooperation Labour Cooperation Border Area Development Infrastructure SEZ Comprehensive Visa Exemption Upgrading Checkpoints Return of Displaced Persons
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: POSITIVE Economic reforms Consumer and investor confidence Medium-term economic growth prospects strong
ECONOMIC INDICATORS % 2015 Economic Forecast for 2016 ADB IMF ADB IMF GDP Growth 8.3 8.5 8.2 8.5 Inflation 8.4 8 (as of May 2014) 6.6 Account Balance (share of GDP) -6.8-4.8-5
ECONOMIC REFORMS Foreign Investment Law (2012) Myanmar opens its telecoms network to foreign investment (2014) Central Bank of Myanmar grants provisional license to nine foreign banks (October 2014) Minimum wage of 3,600 Kyat ($2.80) for all sectors (2015) State and regional governments given more freedom to approve foreign investments of up to 10 million USD (2015)
FOREIGN INVESTMENT LAW 2012 No minimum capital requirement No minimum foreign shares in joint ventures Allows long-term land lease of up to 50 years with an option to extend the term twice by 10 years Tax holiday for the first five years of operation Set out responsibilities of the Myanmar Investment Commission (MIC), which is responsible for assessing business proposals, and setting requirements and conditions for investment.
FOREIGN BANKS OPEN BRANCH IN YANGON 1 October 2014: Central Bank of Myanmar granted a provisional license to 9 successful bidders to open 1 branch. 1) Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ 2) Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation 3) Mizuho Bank 4) Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) 5) Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) 6) Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ) 7) Bangkok Bank 8) May Bank 9) United Overseas Bank (UOB)
SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONES (SEZ)
SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONES (SEZ) September 2015: Zone A opened. 48 companies from 13 countries have reserved more than 60% of the SEZ. December 2015: 5 Chinese companies and 1 Thai company (CP Group) won the bid to construct this SEZ. 2015: The Italian-Thai Development Pcl, the Ministry of Transport of Thailand, JICA, and the Myanmar Government are studying the development of this SEZ.
FOREIGN INVESTMENT OF EXISTING ENTERPRISES (AS OF 31 DEC 2015) Thailand ranks 6 th Country No. of enterprises Approved amount (million USD) 1 China 90 15,274.192 31.26 2 Singapore 153 11,480.418 23.50 3 Hong Kong 99 7,175.766 14.69 4 U.K. 48 3,406.679 6.97 5 Republic of Korea 108 3,324.147 6.80 6 Thailand 51 3,216.571 6.58 7 Malaysia 25 1,065.019 2.18 % Source: Directorate of Investment and Company Administration (DICA), Myanmar
THAI-MYANMAR TRADE (MILLION USD) 9,000.00 6,750.00 4,500.00 Total Trade Export Import 2,250.00 0.00 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Information and Communication Technology Center, in cooperation with the Customs Department, Thailand
GROWING SECTORS Consumer goods Construction Tourism Telecommunication Logistics Banking / Financial Food Products / Agriculture
NLD ECONOMIC POLICY PLATFORM (CURRENTLY BROAD) Sustainable development Good governance, transparency, accountability Free and fair market economy Reduce inequalities in income Reduce poverty by promoting job opportunities Develop infrastructure, communications and transportation Develop industry and services sectors based on agriculture-led growth Encourage exports Promote foreign direct investment
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FROM ACADEMIA AND BUSINESSMEN Develop the agricultural sector Improve the quality of life for farmers and rural communities Draw up a strategy for business sector development Human resource development and capacity building Address the current account deficit More effective use of budget / tax collection Modernize the finance sector to promote financial stability Improve business environment Develop infrastructure, especially electricity and logistics
MYANMAR IN TRANSITION Thailand s business opportunities in new context.