Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901-8557 www.eagleton.rutgers.edu eagleton@rci.rutgers.edu 732-932-9384 Fax: 732-932-6778 IMMEDIATE RELEASE DECEMBER 19, 2014 EDITOR S NOTE: ATTENTION POLITICAL, ASSIGNMENT EDITORS, Director David Redlawsk may be contacted at 319-400-1134 (cell), 848-932-8504 (office), or redlawsk@rutgers.edu. Poll manager Ashley Koning may be contacted at 908-872-1186 or akoning@rutgers.edu. Questions and tables are available at: http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/rep-midterm-dec2014. Visit our blog at http://eagletonpollblog.wordpress.com for additional commentary. Follow the on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/rutgerseagletonpoll and Twitter @EagletonPoll. NEW JERSEYANS SEE NEW CONGRESS CHANGING COUNTRY S DIRECTION Rutgers Poll: Nearly half of Garden Staters say GOP majority will limit Obama agenda NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. As 2014 winds down, New Jerseyans see both change and continuity for Congress, according to the latest. More than half of the state s residents believe Republican control of the Senate will change the country s direction, with 19 percent saying things will change a lot, and 38 percent seeing some change coming. About a quarter think GOP control will not make much difference and 16 percent think nothing will change. The poll, completed before the president s announcement on normalizing relations with Cuba, also shows limited expectations for the Obama administration s final two years. Nearly half think Obama will not be able to accomplish much of his agenda in the remainder of his term, while 16 percent expect him to get nothing done at all. Some are more optimistic: 32 percent see Obama getting some things done over the next two years, and 5 percent say he will get a lot done. The vast majority of New Jerseyans know control of the Senate is flipping to the Republicans next year, so their expectations are informed by that, said David Redlawsk, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling and professor of political science at Rutgers University. Despite the president s recent flexing of his executive muscles, it is not unreasonable to think he will have a hard time accomplishing his goals. Asked to name their top priority for the new Congress, respondents say the economy and jobs. The 22 percent who want Congress to fix the economy first are somewhat hopeful it might happen. Only two percent say a fix for the economy is very likely and another 62 percent say it is somewhat likely Congress will make progress here. However, 32 percent are dubious, and think action on the economy is not at all likely. But across a full range of issues named by New Jerseyans they are less hopeful: just three percent think it is very likely their most important issue will be addressed, while 43 percent see it as somewhat likely. A plurality, 48 percent, expects no real action on their key issue. New Jerseyans strongly endorse the idea that compromise is needed in Congress. Two-thirds think compromise is more important than for lawmakers to stick to their individual beliefs. Having said 1
that, residents simultaneously predict there will be little improvement in relations between the parties. Fifty-seven percent say relations will stay the same, 29 percent think they will get even worse, and just 12 percent believe they will get better. Slightly more registered voters say they voted for a Democrat over a Republican in November s congressional elections, but they are negative about both parties. Thirty-five percent of all residents hold a positive view of Democrats compared with 28 percent toward Republicans. Results are from a statewide poll of 750 adults, including 646 registered voters, contacted by live callers on both landlines and cell phones from Dec. 3-10, 2014, with a margin of error of +/-4.0 percentage points. The registered voter subsample has a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Residents give GOP upper hand, question Obama s effectiveness After November s GOP tidal wave, Democrats, Republicans, and independents agree that the Republican takeover of the Senate will change the way things are going in this country. Most Republicans predict at least some change, with 23 percent expecting a lot of change and 55 percent expecting some change. A quarter of Democrats also expect a lot of change, while 30 percent think there will be some change. Independents are slightly less certain of the impact of GOP control of the Senate: just 12 percent say it will have a lot of impact on the country, while another 38 percent say some impact. The same pattern occurs regardless of views about Obama, the parties in Congress, respondent ideology or the midterm congressional vote; across all of about half or more New Jerseyans say that GOP Senate control will change things in the country, at least to some extent. Views on Obama s effectiveness during his remaining time in office are more directly tied to political preferences. Among Democrats, 40 percent think the president will be able to accomplish some of his agenda, but only 7 percent say he will be able to do a lot. Republicans are far more negative: only a quarter expect Obama to accomplish even some of what he wants in his last two years. Half expect little to happen, and another 20 percent see none of Obama s preferences being implemented. Independents resemble Republicans: one-third think Obama will get at least something done four percent say a lot while two-thirds believe he will not get much, if anything, accomplished. Those favorable towards Obama and Democrats in Congress, as well as those who voted for Democrats this past election, are also more likely to believe the president will get something done in the next two years. Surprisingly, those who say GOP control of the Senate will have an impact are slightly more likely than those who feel the opposite to say Obama will have some impact as well. Doubt about congressional ability to fix top concerns New Jerseyans say the most important issues for a GOP-led Congress to fix are a blend of perennial and more recent concerns. The economy and jobs is the most frequently mentioned, at 22 percent. Second probably due to Obama s executive order just as the poll was taken is immigration at 12 percent. Health care and taxes tie for third, at nine percent each. Eight percent mention something 2
about bipartisanship or compromise, but only two percent mention gun and crime-related issues. Another two percent name social issues, including race relations. The economy is tops for all New Jerseyans, but Democrats (at 28 percent) are more likely to name the issue as the top concern compared to Republicans and independents, by eight and nine points, respectively. On the other hand, Republicans and independents are more likely to mention taxes, immigration and Obamacare as their top concern, compared to Democrats. Those for whom a congressional fix of the economy is most important are somewhat optimistic that it will actually get done, but New Jerseyans with other top concerns do not agree. While the heavy focus on the economy means relatively small numbers of respondents named other issues, among those who did, the trend is toward much less optimism. One-third of immigration advocates doubt anything will happen, while about six in 10 who care about taxes expect nothing to get done. Similarly, half of those who mention health care anticipate no progress on the issue. While the small subsamples focused on issues other than the economy mean that we are much less certain of the results, the trends seem pretty clear, noted Redlawsk. There is simply more optimism among those who care most about economic issues than anyone else. This may reflect recent news that the economy is, in fact, improving. Little expectation for bipartisanship despite desire for compromise Though many New Jerseyans see change on the horizon, most do not foresee a new era of bipartisanship being ushered in with GOP control of Congress. This is not for lack of desire for lawmakers to work together. Solid majorities of Republicans, Democrats and independents think it is more important for legislators to compromise to get laws passed than to stick to their own beliefs. Democrats, probably mindful of the new political landscape, however, are more likely to want comprise, 74 percent compared with 65 percent of independents and 61 percent of Republicans. More than half of Democrats, Republicans and independents are pessimistic about improved relations in the coming year. But Republicans and, to some extent, independents are about twice as likely as Democrats to say relations will improve. Democrats, instead, believe relations between the two sides will grow even worse; 38 percent say this, compared to about 25 percent of Republicans and independents. Things may be changing in Congress in January, but overall, New Jerseyans are uncertain what to expect, said Redlawsk. They believe some things may change, but they also remain uncertain about the basic underlying dynamics of Washington getting any better. # # # QUESTIONS AND TABLES FOLLOW ON THE NEXT PAGE 3
Questions and Tables The questions covered in the release of December 19, 2014 are listed below. Column percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Respondents are New Jersey Adults unless otherwise indicated; all percentages are of weighted results. Q. First, I'd like to ask about some people and groups. Please tell me if your general impression of each one is favorable or unfavorable, or if you do not have an opinion. If you do not know the name, just say so. President Republicans Democrats Obama in Congress in Congress Support 50% 28% 35% Oppose 38% 50% 41% Don't know 12% 22% 24% Unwgt N= 745 736 741 President Obama Support 83% 40% 15% 78% 47% 26% 46% 54% 58% 49% 51% 42% 80% 8% Oppose 9% 45% 76% 14% 38% 68% 43% 33% 22% 37% 41% 51% 9% 86% Don't know 9% 15% 10% 8% 15% 6% 12% 13% 20% 14% 8% 7% 11% 6% Unwgt N= 235 361 140 152 427 144 373 372 122 194 217 212 217 199 Republicans in Congress Support 9% 23% 71% 12% 26% 49% 31% 24% 27% 27% 26% 32% 6% 61% Oppose 72% 50% 15% 78% 50% 26% 50% 50% 41% 49% 56% 55% 78% 25% Don't know 19% 27% 14% 9% 24% 24% 18% 25% 32% 24% 18% 13% 16% 14% Unwgt N= 233 355 140 151 421 143 368 368 122 191 214 209 215 200 Democrats in Congress Support 71% 20% 5% 58% 33% 17% 31% 39% 33% 34% 38% 36% 62% 5% Oppose 14% 47% 76% 27% 40% 64% 49% 33% 30% 41% 44% 46% 21% 81% Don't know 15% 33% 18% 15% 28% 19% 20% 29% 38% 25% 18% 18% 17% 14% Unwgt N= 235 358 139 152 423 144 369 372 123 193 217 208 214 199 4
Q. [REGISTERED VOTERS ONLY] Thinking back to the election for your U.S. House Representative, did you vote for [ROTATE: a Democrat, a Republican], someone else, or did you not have a chance to vote? Democrat 35% Republican 30% Someone else 2% Did not vote 29% Don't know/remember 3% Unwgt N= 628 Q. To the best of your knowledge, which political party will have control of Congress starting in January? [ROTATE: The Republicans or the Democrats]? Republicans 80% Democrats 9% Don't know 10% Unwgt N= 744 Didn t vote Republicans 75% 79% 93% 85% 79% 83% 83% 78% 73% 78% 83% 89% 80% 94% 74% Democrats 14% 8% 3% 9% 10% 8% 8% 10% 14% 7% 10% 8% 11% 4% 11% Don't know 11% 12% 4% 7% 11% 9% 8% 12% 13% 15% 7% 3% 9% 2% 15% Unwgt N= 234 361 141 153 426 144 373 371 122 194 216 212 215 200 176 Q. In the new Congress starting in January, do you think Republican control of the Senate will change the way things are going in this country a lot, some, not much, or not at all? Obama GOP Democrats Fav Unfav Fav Unfav Fav Unfav A lot 19% 20% 16% 27% 16% 28% 15% Some 38% 28% 51% 51% 30% 28% 46% Not much 24% 26% 22% 15% 27% 25% 22% Not at all 16% 22% 9% 5% 24% 17% 15% Don't know 4% 4% 2% 1% 2% 3% 2% Unwgt N= 748 356 308 211 375 254 322 5
A lot 25% 12% 23% 22% 17% 22% 17% 20% 18% 20% 16% 21% 18% 17% Some 30% 38% 55% 32% 38% 48% 36% 40% 39% 35% 38% 43% 30% 58% Not much 25% 26% 17% 23% 27% 17% 27% 21% 30% 20% 26% 22% 30% 19% Not at all 17% 20% 4% 19% 16% 11% 18% 14% 7% 21% 18% 10% 19% 6% Don't know 3% 5% 1% 4% 3% 3% 2% 5% 6% 5% 1% 3% 3% 1% Unwgt N= 235 364 141 154 428 145 375 373 123 194 217 214 217 200 Q. How much do you think Barack Obama will be able to accomplish in his remaining two years as president? A lot of what he would like to do, some, not much, or nothing at all? Obama GOP Democrats Will GOP Control Change Things Fav Unfav Fav Unfav Fav Unfav A lot Some Not much Not at all A lot 5% 7% 2% 5% 4% 8% 3% 4% 2% 5% 8% Some 32% 42% 18% 23% 31% 38% 21% 37% 37% 22% 24% Not much 46% 40% 53% 51% 48% 44% 51% 43% 47% 54% 39% Not at all 16% 9% 26% 21% 16% 9% 25% 16% 12% 17% 27% Don't know 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 2% Unwgt N= 749 358 307 211 375 256 321 134 293 181 111 A lot 7% 4% 2% 7% 3% 4% 5% 5% 3% 4% 7% 6% 7% 3% Some 40% 29% 24% 37% 31% 28% 27% 35% 36% 30% 31% 31% 37% 18% Not much 43% 46% 51% 41% 51% 39% 47% 44% 44% 49% 46% 41% 46% 53% Not at all 9% 20% 21% 15% 14% 26% 20% 13% 14% 17% 15% 19% 10% 26% Don't know 2% 2% 0% 0% 1% 2% 1% 2% 3% 0% 1% 3% 0% 1% Unwgt N= 236 363 141 154 429 144 374 375 123 194 219 213 217 199 Q. Do you think relations between Republicans and Democrats will get better, worse, or stay about the same? Better 12% Worse 29% Stay the same 57% Don't know 3% Unwgt N= 749 6
Better 7% 11% 18% 9% 11% 17% 16% 8% 11% 11% 10% 15% 5% 18% Worse 38% 24% 26% 40% 27% 26% 27% 31% 28% 32% 29% 25% 40% 21% Stay the same 53% 61% 54% 50% 60% 56% 55% 58% 57% 56% 57% 57% 52% 58% Don't know 2% 4% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% 4% 4% 1% 4% 3% 2% 3% Unwgt N= 236 363 141 154 428 145 374 375 123 193 219 214 217 200 Q. In just one or two words, please tell me the SINGLE most important thing you would like to see fixed when the new Congress starts in January? [OPEN ENDED, CODED TO CATEGORIES] Economy and jobs 22% Immigration 12% Healthcare 9% Taxes 9% Bipartisanship and compromise 8% Education 6% Foreign policy/relations, security/, and war 4% Government spending (budget, debt, deficit) 3% Guns, crime, drugs 2% Social issues, including race relations 2% Government corruption 0% Can't fix anything I care about (and similar responses) 1% Other 13% Don't Know 8% Unwgt N= 748 Party ID Ideology Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Dem Rep Economy and jobs 28% 19% 20% 23% 20% 25% 24% 19% Immigration 12% 9% 19% 13% 10% 18% 11% 16% Healthcare 6% 9% 15% 5% 11% 11% 8% 15% Taxes 6% 10% 13% 8% 11% 8% 6% 12% Bipartisanship and compromise 8% 9% 4% 10% 8% 5% 9% 7% Education 8% 7% 2% 9% 7% 1% 4% 2% Foreign policy/relations, security/, and war 2% 5% 2% 2% 4% 4% 3% 4% Government spending (budget, debt, deficit) 1% 4% 6% 1% 5% 3% 4% 5% Guns, crime, drugs 3% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 3% 1% Social issues, including race relations 3% 2% 0% 2% 1% 3% 3% 2% Government corruption 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Can't fix anything I care about (and similar responses) 1% 2% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% Other 14% 14% 11% 17% 12% 16% 16% 13% Don't Know 9% 8% 5% 7% 8% 5% 9% 5% Unwgt N= 236 363 141 154 428 145 217 200 7
Q. How likely is it that this will actually get done? Is it very likely, somewhat likely, or not at all likely? Very likely 3% Somewhat likely 43% Not at all likely 48% Don't know 5% Unwgt N= 690 Most Important Thing New Congress Should Work On Economy and Jobs Immigration Healthcare Taxes Bipartisanship Very likely 2% 7% 1% 1% 4% Somewhat likely 62% 51% 43% 42% 29% Not at all likely 32% 34% 50% 57% 67% Don't know 5% 8% 5% 0% 1% Unwgt N= 163 86 70* 68* 69* * Small N, results should be interpreted with caution Q. Thinking about Congress, which is more important: that our representatives [ROTATE] stick to their beliefs or compromise to get laws passed? Obama GOP Democrats Fav Unfav Fav Unfav Fav Unfav Stick to beliefs 28% 20% 38% 40% 20% 22% 33% Compromise 67% 74% 57% 59% 77% 75% 66% Don't know 5% 6% 5% 2% 2% 3% 2% Unwgt N= 737 351 304 209 369 252 317 Stick to beliefs 22% 27% 37% 26% 25% 39% 29% 27% 26% 32% 25% 26% 17% 40% Compromise 74% 65% 61% 71% 70% 57% 69% 65% 68% 63% 71% 67% 78% 58% Don't know 4% 7% 2% 3% 5% 4% 3% 8% 5% 5% 5% 7% 5% 3% Unwgt N= 235 355 139 151 422 143 368 369 119 192 216 210 213 196 8
December 3 10, 2014 The was conducted by telephone using live callers December 3-10, 2014 with a scientifically selected random sample of 750 New Jersey adults including 646 registered voters. This telephone poll included 423 landline and 327 cell phone adults, all acquired through random digit dialing. Distribution of household phone use in this sample is: Cell Only: 22% Dual Use, Reached on Cell: 22% Dual Use, Reached on LL: 50% Landline Only: 6% Data for registered voters (N=646) and all adults (N=750) were weighted separately to the demographics of registered voters and adults in New Jersey, respectively. Both weights account for the probability of being selected within the sample frame and the probability of being sampled within a household, based on the number of individuals living in the household and the phone composition (cell, landline) of the household. The samples were weighted to several demographic variables reflecting the population parameters of the state of New Jersey: gender, race, age, and Hispanic ethnicity. The final weight, which combined all of the parameters mentioned, was trimmed at the 5th and 95th percentile so as to not accord too much weight to any one case or subset of cases. All results are reported with these weighted data. All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for the 750 adults is +/-3.6 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The adult sample weighting design effect is 1.25, making the adjusted margin of error +/- 4.0 percentage points for the adult sample. The simple sampling error for 646 registered voters is +/-3.9 percentage points. The weighting design effect for the registered voter sample is 1.22, making the adjusted margin of error +/-4.3 percentage points for the registered voter sample. Thus if 50 percent of New Jersey adults in this sample favor a particular position, we would be 95 percent sure that the true figure is between 46.0 and 54.0 percent (50 +/-4.0) if all New Jersey adults had been interviewed, rather than just a sample. Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording or context effects. This was fielded in house by the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling. The questionnaire was developed and all data analyses were completed in house. The is paid for and sponsored by the Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University, a non-partisan academic center for the study of politics and the political process. Weighted Sample Characteristics 750 New Jersey Adults 34% Democrat 49% Male 28% 18-34 60% White 46% Independent 51% Female 36% 35-54 12% Black 20% Republican 36% 55+ 16% Hispanic 12% Asian/Other/Multi 9