Polling Young Voters, Volume VIII The latest volume of Rock the Vote s Polling Young Voters takes a look at young voters level of interest in the 2008 elections, political party identification, top issues, and preferences for president and Congress in 2008. From recent RT Strategies, Democracy Corps, Harris Interactive, Time Magazine, Pew Research Center, and YouGov/Polimetrix polls, this report delves into which 2008 candidates are currently winning support from the large and potentially powerful youth electorate, and which issues are driving them to the polls. Over the last two months young voters have flexed their muscles at the polls, building on a trend that began with increased young voter turnout in 2004 and continued in 2006. With double, triple, and even quadruple turnout in virtually every primary and caucus to date, young voters are playing a major role in the 2008 elections. As spring primary states remain in play, all candidates still have ample opportunity to court and mobilize young supporters in time for primary and general election victories. Rock the Vote has a wealth of resources for campaigns and organizations planning to reach out to young voters in 2008. See www.rockthevote.com/research for our campaign toolkits, tipsheets, polling, demographic analyses and more. Paying Attention to the 2008 Elections Recent polling finds that a significant portion of young adults is paying attention to the quickly approaching 2008 elections. A survey from Time Magazine found that 74% of 18-29 year olds are paying attention to this year s presidential campaigns, a 32-point increase from the 2004 campaign. In addition, nearly half of 18-29 year olds polled in a recent Rasmussen Report survey say they are passionate and deeply committed to a particular Presidential candidate.
Direction of the Country A majority of young adults are dissatisfied with the current direction of the country, although not as large a majority as in other age groups. (See Rasmussen below) In another poll (Time Magazine), 72% of 18-29 year olds surveyed felt the country is on wrong track and 23% felt it is on the right track. Party Identification Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or something else?... Do you learn more toward the Republican Party or more toward the Democratic Party? 18-29 Year Olds Party ID with Leans Time Magazine Poll, January 2008 Democrat 43% Republican 38% Independent 7% Other 12% Don t know 2% 2008 Vote Choice Primary Young Democrats Question: Asked of likely Democratic primary voters, ages 18-29: I am going to read a list of people who might seek the Democratic nomination for President in 2008, and I will read the list twice. I would like you to tell me who would be your FIRST CHOICE for the nomination? 18-34 Year Old Democrats Primary Choices RT Strategies, Barack Obama 55% Hillary Clinton 35% Unsure 8% Other 2%
Young Republicans Question: Asked of likely Republican primary voters. I am going to read a list of people who might seek the Republican nomination for President in 2008 I would like you to tell me who would be your FIRST CHOICE? 18-34 Year Old Republicans Primary Choices RT Strategies, John McCain 37% Mike Huckabee 27% Mitt Romney 22% Ron Paul 4% Other 3% Unsure 6% 2008 Vote Choice General Election Presidential Race Question: I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the election in 2008, if the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? Question: If the primary or caucus in your state were being held today and these were the candidates, who would/did you vote for?
Congressional Races Question: Thinking about the election for Congress in 2008, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for The Democratic Candidate or The Republican Candidate? Top Issues for Young Voters Question: Which of these is the most important issue to you? (Multiple responses allowed )
Sources Democracy Corps Poll: Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research recently conducted a large-scale survey from January 21 st to January 27 th, of 1,850 likely voters in 40 competitive congressional districts. Harris Interactive: A nationwide poll of 2,302 U.S. adults surveyed online between January 15 and 22, 2008. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press: Review of November 5 th exit polls among 17-29 year olds. Rasmussen Reports: The question on the direction of the country is from a national survey of 800 likely voters, conducted February 4-5, 2008. The question on passion for a specific candidate was part of a national telephone survey of 800 likely voters, conducted January 23-24, 2008. RT Strategies: A survey of 1,000 adults nationwide, conducted from January 31 st -February 2 nd, 2007. Time Magazine: A survey of 503 18-29 year olds, conducted January 18-21 2008. The Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix: Performed February 4th-5th 2008 with topical questions on the Presidential candidates Sample: 1,000 adult Americans. About Rock the Vote: Rock the Vote s mission is to build the political clout and engagement of young people in order to achieve progressive change in our country. Rock the Vote uses music, popular culture and new technologies to engage and incite young people to register and vote in every election. And we give young people the tools to identify, learn about, and take action on the issues that affect their lives, and leverage their power in the political process. Rock the Vote is creative, effective, and controlled by nobody s agenda but our own we tell it like it is and pride ourselves on being a trusted source for information on politics. We empower the 45 million young people in America who want to step up, claim their voice in the political process, and change the way politics is done. www.rockthevote.com