THE POLICING DEBATE IN HALDIMAND-NORFOLK Page 1 of 6 SIMCOE REFORMER/ANGUS REID GROUP POLL THE POLICING DEBATE IN HALDIMAND-NORFOLK Municipal Residents Choose the OPP Awareness of Policing Issues Reaction to the Decision-Making Process Factors at Play: Local Control Vs. Cost Impact of Decisions on Municipal Voting Intentions Angus Reid Group, Inc. Public Release Date: September 15, 1997 AT 10:00 AM EDT This poll was conducted by telephone between September 4th and 7th, 1997, among a stratified (50% served by the OPP and 50% served by the Haldimand-Norfolk Regional Police) random sample of 400 aged 18 years and older currently residing in the Regional Municipality of Haldimand-Norfolk. The data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's age/sex composition reflects that of the actual municipal population according to the 1996 Census data. With this sample of 400, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +4.9 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult population within the Municipality of Haldimand- Norfolk been polled. The margin of error will be larger within the various sub-groupings of the survey population.
THE POLICING DEBATE IN HALDIMAND-NORFOLK Page 2 of 6 THE POLICING DEBATE IN HALDIMAND-NORFOLK Municipal Residents Would Prefer The OPP Over Regional Police Simcoe, September 15, 1997 -- Given a choice of three options relative to the policing debate in the region, the majority (52%) of residents in the Regional Municipality of Haldimand-Norfolk would prefer the OPP to serve the entire Municipality, compared to just under two in ten (19%) who would prefer the Haldimand-Norfolk Regional Police, and to an additional two in ten (19%) who would pay more to maintain the current policing structure, according to a Simcoe Reformer/Angus Reid Group poll. This poll among a stratified (50% served by the OPP and 50% served by Haldimand-Norfolk Regional Police) random sample of 400 adults aged 18 years and older residing in the Regional Municipality of Haldimand-Norfolk was conducted between September 4 th and September 7 th, 1997. A sample size of 400 is said to have an overall margin of error of ±4.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Haldimand-Norfolk Residents Choose The OPP The majority (52%) of residents in the Regional Municipality of Haldimand-Norfolk would prefer the OPP to serve the area, as opposed to choosing the Regional Haldimand-Norfolk Police Force (19%) or paying more to maintain the current police structure in the region (19%). One in ten (10%) are undecided. Younger residents of the Municipality aged 18 to 34 (57%) and more affluent residents with annual household incomes of $60,000 or more (61%) tend to be more likely to choose the OPP than other subsets of Municipal residents. Further, two-thirds (66%) of residents who are currently served by the OPP would choose this option, as well as the plurality (43%) of those who are served by the Regional Police Force. Older Municipal residents aged 55 years and above (23%) and less affluent residents with annual household incomes of less than $30,000 (23%) are more likely to choose the Regional Haldimand- Norfolk Police Force in comparison to other subsets of the Municipality s population. In addition, a minority (25%) of residents currently served by the Regional Police Force would choose this option, compared to just over one in ten (11%) residents presently policed by the OPP. Those who are willing to pay more to maintain the current police structure in the area tend to be less affluent with annual household incomes of less than $30,000 (26%). Awareness of Policing Issues The majority of residents are aware of the policing debate in the Municipality which surfaces as one of the most important top-of-mind concerns currently facing residents in the area. Over seven in ten (72%) residents report that they are aware of "the debate currently taking place
THE POLICING DEBATE IN HALDIMAND-NORFOLK Page 3 of 6 at Regional Council over a decision to use the Haldimand-Norfolk Regional Police or the Ontario Provincial Police (OPP) to serve the Municipality". Just under three in ten (28%) residents of the region are unaware of this debate. Municipal residents more prone to be aware of this debate include older residents aged 55 years and above (83%), males (78%) and more affluent residents of the area with annual household incomes of $60,000 or more (79%). Those least likely to report being aware of this debate tend to be younger residents aged 18 to 34 (64%) and females (67%). In addition, when asked on an unaided basis to consider the most important issue or concern facing the Regional Municipality of Haldimand-Norfolk today, "policing issues" (15% of mentions) resulted as the second most important concern, following closely behind "healthcare issues" (19% of mentions). As well, "crime/violence" ranked third as the most important issue currently facing Municipal residents, mentioned by over one in ten (12%) respondents. Although the majority (72%) of residents are aware of the policing debate, one-half (50%) do not feel that they are "well-informed about the debate over police services in the area". Just under onehalf (48%) of residents agree that they are well-informed on this issue. Those who are predominantly more likely to feel well-informed on the policing debate include older residents aged 55 years and above (60%). Conversely, younger residents aged 18 to 34 (64%) are more likely to feel that they are not well-informed on this issue. Reaction to the Decision-Making Process Over eight in ten (81%) residents of the Regional Municipality of Haldimand-Norfolk agree with the statement, "regardless of what Council decides, the decision on policing should be put to a public vote or referendum", compared to under two in ten (17%) who disagree with this statement and to two percent (2%) who are undecided. Municipal residents more likely to agree with putting the debate to a public vote or referendum tend to be female (86%) and less affluent with annual household incomes of less than $30,000 (91%). On the other hand, those least likely to agree with this statement include more affluent residents with annual household incomes of $60,000 or more (68%) and males (76%). In addition, all respondents were informed that "The Regional Council of Haldimand-Norfolk has
THE POLICING DEBATE IN HALDIMAND-NORFOLK Page 4 of 6 engaged a national accounting firm, Deloitte and Touche, to study the cost implications of using the Haldimand-Norfolk Regional Police in comparison to using OPP services". Two-thirds (66%) of Municipal residents feel that the report recommendations "should be part of the decision-making process along with public consultation". Under one in ten (8%) feel that the report recommendations "should be accepted in full as the basis for the decision", and a further two in ten (19%) feel that it "should be discarded because cost is not the most important issue to consider". A total of six percent (6%) of respondents are undecided. Public opinion is consistent across socio-demographic variables, with the exception of residents in middle-income households ($30,000 to $59,999 annual household income) being more likely to feel that the report should be part of the process along with public consultation (75%). Factors At Play: Local Control vs. Cost The majority (53%) of Municipal residents feel that "maintaining local control over police services" is more important than "the cost to municipal tax payers" (38%) in deciding upon which police force to use. Just under one in ten (9%) are undecided. Females (59%), those with mid annual household incomes of between $30,000 to $59,999 (61%), and those who would prefer the Regional Police Force to serve the Municipality (76%) are disproportionately more likely to feel that local control is more important than cost in deciding which police force to use. Conversely, males (45%), more affluent residents with annual household incomes of $60,000 or more (45%) and residents who would prefer the OPP to serve the Municipality (48%) feel that cost is more important than local control in this decision. However, when the issue of local control is isolated, a minority (36%) of residents think that they "would lose local control over policing in the area to the provincial government if the OPP were chosen as the police force", compared to a majority (56%) who disagree with this statement. Just under one in ten (9%) are undecided. Agreement with this statement primarily stems from residents between the ages of 35 to 54 (43%) who are served by the Haldimand-Norfolk Regional Police Force (43%) and those who would prefer the Regional Police to serve the entire Municipality (64%). Disagreement with this statement is more likely to be found among younger respondents aged 18 to 34 (67%), more affluent respondents with annual household incomes of $60,000 or more (64%), those who are currently served by the OPP (65%) and residents who would prefer the OPP to serve
THE POLICING DEBATE IN HALDIMAND-NORFOLK Page 5 of 6 the entire Municipality (73%). As well, one-third (33%) of Municipal residents "would be willing to pay higher property taxes or a fee for service to maintain the current police structure", versus just over six in ten (62%) who would not and five percent (5%) who are undecided. Agreement with this statement is more likely to be expressed by females (40%) and disagreement is more likely to be mentioned by males (69%), younger residents aged 18 to 34 (68%), more affluent residents with annual household incomes of $60,000 or more and by those who would prefer the OPP to serve the entire Municipality (74%). Of the one-third (33%) who report that they would pay more to maintain the current policing structure, they indicate being willing to pay a mean average dollar increase of $55.77. Further, six in ten (60%) Municipal residents agree that "the OPP would do a better job than our local police force of serving rural areas of the Municipality", compared to just under three in ten (28%) who disagree with this statement. Over one in ten (12%) are undecided. More affluent residents with annual household incomes of $60,000 or more (65%), those who are currently served by the OPP (65%) and those who would prefer the OPP to serve the entire Municipality (85%) are disproportionately more likely to agree with this statement. Interestingly, the majority (61%) of residents currently served by the Regional Police Force agree that the OPP would do a better job than the local police force of serving rural areas of the Municipality. The least affluent with annual household incomes of less than $30,000 (53%) and those who would prefer the Regional Police Force to serve the entire Municipality (20%) are least likely to agree with this statement. Finally, just over eight in ten (81%) residents agree with the statement, "I would feel just as safe with the OPP as I do with my regional police", versus thirteen percent (13%) who disagree and six percent (6%) who are undecided. Agreement is particularly strong among residents with mid annual household incomes of between $30,000 and $59,999 (87%), as well as among those who would prefer the OPP to serve the entire Municipality (90%).
THE POLICING DEBATE IN HALDIMAND-NORFOLK Page 6 of 6 Notably, there is no difference in opinion expressed between those currently served by OPP (80% agree) or by the Haldimand-Norfolk Regional Police Force (80% agree). Impact of Decisions on Municipal Voting Intentions Just over six in ten (61%) residents agree that "the decision that Council takes on this issue will affect the way I vote in the upcoming municipal election", compared to just over one-third (34%) who disagree. One in twenty (5%) residents are undecided. Agreement and disagreement with this statement is consistent across socio-demographic subsets of the population surveyed. QUESTIONNAIRE & TOTAL RESULTS BACK HOME For more details, please contact: W. John Wright Senior Vice President Angus Reid Group, Inc. (416) 324-2900 or Mike Fredericks, Publisher or Cam McKnight, General Manager Simcoe Reformer (519) 426-5710