EUROPEAN SECURITY, NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND PUBLIC CONFIDENCE Both World Wars began as European wars. Today a global conflict seems more likely to result from events in the Middle East, Asia or Africa In these circumstances the European nations' determination to avoid war is critical. This book examines European security and co-operation following the Helsinki and Belgrade conferences. Writers from Finland, the USSR, the USA, Canada, Britain, the two Germanies, Poland, Bulgaria and Scandinavia discuss the prospects. Scholarly analysis is set alongside political rhetoric. New weapons technologies and the problems of the Arctic and the Baltic areas receive special attention. Most of the papers printed were originally given at symposia held at Helsinki, Finland and Zakopane in Poland under the auspices of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs. William Gutteridge, the editor, is Professor of International Studies and Head of the Political and Economics Studies Group, University of Aston in Birmingham. He was Director of Complementary Studies, also at the University of Aston. He has been Senior Lecturer in Commonwealth Government and History, Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst, and Head of the Department of Languages and Modern Studies, Lanchester Polytechnic, Coventry. He is Secretary of the British Pugwash Group, a member of the International Council of Pugwash Conferences for Scientists in World Affairs. He is assisted as editor by Marian Dobrosielski, Polish Vice Foreign Minister and Professor of International Relations at Warsaw University, and Jorma Miettinen, Professor of Radio Chemistry at the University of Helsinki, Finland.
Also by William Gutteridge MILITARY REGIMES IN AFRICA THE MILITARY IN AFRICAN POLITICS MILITARY INSTITUTIONS AND POWER IN THE NEW STATES ARMED FORCES IN NEW STATES
EUROPEAN SECURITY, NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND PUBLIC CONFIDENCE Edited by William Gutteridge Assisted by Marian Dobrosielski and J orma Miettinen
William Gutteridge 1982 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1982 978-0-333-30959-9 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without permission First published 1982 by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD London and Basingstoke Companies and representatives throughout the world ISBN 978-1-349-05910-2 ISBN 978-1-349-05908-9 (ebook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-05908-9
Contents Preface Notes on the Contributors Introduction William Gutteridge (UK) viii ix xii PART ONE INTRODUCTION 2 Europe After Belgrade- Problems and Prospects Marian Dobrosielski (Poland) 3 2 The Impact of Current Political and Arms Control Developments on Security in Europe forma Miettinen (Finland) 11 PART TWO MILITARY ASPECTS 3 The Central Balance in the 1980s- No Longer Central C. G. Jacobsen (Canada) 27 4 Disarmament in Europe: Military Detente in Europe as an Aspect of International Detente R. Bogdanov (USSR) 31 5 Implications of New Conventional Technologies A. Karkoszka (Poland) 37 6 Grey-area Systems and European Security H. G. Brauch (FRG) 45 7 The Neutron Bomb and Nuclear Disarmament in Europe forma Miettinen (Finland) 84 v
v1 Contents 8 A Splendid Opportunity B. T. Feld (USA) 91 9 Theatre Nuclear Weapons in Europe Jorma Miettinen (Finland) 93 PART THREE THE BALTIC AND THE ARCTIC REGIONAL PROBLEMS 10 Arms Control in Northern Europe: A Nordic Nuclear-free Zone? Pauli 0. Jiirvenpiiii and Kalevi Ruhala (Finland) 109 11 Naval Confidence-building Measures in the Baltic K. Ruhala (Finland) 122 12 The Strategic Balance in the Arctic Ocean- Soviet Options Willy streng (Norway) 125 13 The Arctic Resources' Possible Part in Future Energy Politics Jr,Jrgen Taagholt (Denmark) 155 14 Non-living Natural Resources of the Arctic Ocean, Particularly North of Europe lvar Hess/and (Sweden) 168 PART FOUR THREATS TO GLOBAL STABILITY AND PUBLIC CONFIDENCE IN EUROPE 15 Potential Threats to European Stability David Carlton (UK) 177 16 Further Confidence-building Measures: The Reduction of the Military Threat to Peace William Gutteridge (UK) 183
Contents vii 17 The Impact of Current Developments in Southern Africa on International Security and Co-operation Generally and in Europe in Particular William Gutteridge (UK) 186 PART FIVE ECONOMIC AND TECHNICAL CO-OPERATION IN EUROPE 18 East-West Economic Co-operation in Europe: Real Premises and Military Obstacles N. Behar (Bulgaria) 193 19 European Collaboration in Science and Technology after Helsinki M. M. Kaplan (USA) 199 20 European Co-operation in the Area of Electric Power R. E. Botzian (FRG) 203 21 Economic Co-operation as a Factor for the Development of European Security and Co-operation M. Schmidt (GDR) 210 APPENDIX- REPORTS ON SYMPOSIA DISCUSSIONS A Report on 29 Pugwash Symposium held in Zakopane, Poland 1978 on 'Security and Co-operation in Europe: Problems and Prospects after Belgrade'. 219 B Report on 33 Pugwash Symposium held in Helsinki, Finland, 1979 'Impact of Current Political Developments and Arms Control Efforts on European Security'. 229 Index 235
Preface The editing of a book of this character presents special problems of time and space as well as language. For one thing the papers were written at different times, over three years, for meetings at different places in Europe. The three editors, moreover, were unable to meet in the fmal critical stages, in the period 1 anuary to April 1980, for the preparation of the publication. I hope my colleagues, Professor M. Dobrosielski and Professor J. K. Miettinen, are satisfied with what they now fmd in print. Without them the symposia from which the book derived would never have taken place in the fmt instance. Effectively their role as editors, though they did not know it at the time, began when they suggested contributors and subsequently guided the meetings and discussions. They played a large part both in preparing the original background papers and in writing the reports on the proceedings. The Pugwash conferences owe them a great debt as I know personally from having participated in the two official Pugwash symposia at Zakopane in Poland in April 1978 and at Helsinki, Finland, in April 1979 and assisted in the preparation of the reports on those occasions. None of this effort would, however, have come to fruition had it not been for the enthusiasm and professional care of my secretary, Rhoda Finch, who not only retyped much of the manuscript but whose watchfulness has certainly greatly reduced the number of errors. Junel980 WILLIAM GUTTERIDGE The University of Aston in Birmingham Editor on behalf of the Pugwash Council viii
Notes on the Contributors NANSEN BEHAR is Head of the Economic Department of the Institute for Contemporary Social Theories at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences and author of Military-Industrial Complex. R. BOGDANOV is Deputy Director of the Soviet Institute for the Study of the United States and Canada and the author of books and articles on USA-USSR relationships. RUDOLF BOTZIAN works with the government-sponsored Institute for International Politics and Security in the Federal German Republic. HANS GUNTER BRAUCH is a Research Associate at the Institute for Political Science at Heidelberg University and Teaching Associate at the Institute for Political Science of Tiibingen University. DAVID CARLTON is Senior Lecturer in Diplomatic History at the Polytechnic of North London. He is author of MacDonald versus Henderson: the Foreign Policy of the Second Labour Government and Anthony Eden: A Biography. MARIAN DOBROSIELSKI is Professor of International Relations at the University of Warsaw and has been Director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs since 1971. He was Polish Ambassador to London from 1969 to 1971. He is Vice-Foreign Minister at the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and led his country's delegation at the Belgrade Conference. BERNARD T. FELD is Professor of Physics and Head of the Division of Nuclear and High Energy Physics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a member of the International Pugwash Council and has been Editor-in-Chief of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists since 1975. WILLIAM GUTTERIDGE is Professor of International Studies and Head of ix
X Notes on the Contributors the Political and Economics Studies Group at the University of Aston in Birmingham. He is also Secretary of the British Pugwash Group, a member of the International Pugwash Council and author of four books on the role of the military. IV AR R. HESSLAND has been Professor in General and Historical Geology at Stockholm University and is an authority on sedimentology, paleontology and paleoenvironment, and economic and marine geology. c. G. JACOBSEN holds the Visiting Chair of Strategic Studies at Acadia University, Nova Scotia, Canada, and is Adjunct Professor of the Institute of Soviet and East European Studies at Carleton University, Ottawa. PAULI o. JARVENPAA is a researcher at the Finnish Institute of Military Science and Research Associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, London. MARTIN M. KAPLAN is Director-General of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs and was a staff member of the World Health Organization, 1949-1976, holding a number of senior posts including Director, Research, Promotion and Development. ANDRZEJ KARKOSZKA has been, since 1968, a Research Fellow in the Polish Institute of International Affairs and is currently Research Fellow at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). JORMA K. MIETTINEN has been, since 1964, Professor and Head of the Department of Radiochemistry at the University of Helsinki, Finland. He is a member of the Pugwash Council and Chairman of the Finnish Pugwash Group. WILLY ~STRENG is Director of the Fridtjof Nansen Foundation and Lecturer in International Politics at the University of Oslo. KALEVI RUHALA is Research Fellow at the Institute of Military Science, Helsinki, and a member of the Finnish Disarmament Board and of the Scientific Council of the Finnish Institute of International Relations. MAX SCHMIDT is a member of the German Democratic Republic National Committees for Economics and Political Sciences and Director of the Institute of International Politics and Economics of the GDR.
Notes on the Contributors xi Jfi)RGEN TAAGHOLT has been, since 1967, the Danish Scientific Liaison Officer for Greenland, responsible for co-ordinating Danish scientific activities and those of other countries in Greenland.
Introduction The papers in this collection derive from three related sources. The fust of these in time was a meeting held in Helsinki in 1977 under the auspices of the Finnish Pugwash Group to discuss the regional problems of the Baltic and the Arctic. This was an important initiative and led not only to a privately circulated volume of proceedings but also to various publications in journals. Then in April 1978 the Polish Pugwash Group organised an international Pugwash symposium on European security and co-operation at Zakopane. This was intended to examine the evolution of the Helsinki agreement and its implementation in the period after the review conference at Belgrade. The senior Polish participant at this meeting was Professor Marian Dobrosielski, former Ambassador in London, and more recently Vice-Foreign Minister of Poland. He was also, significantly, the leader of his country's delegation at the Belgrade conference and is the author of Chapter 1 of this volume. Following up the long-standing interest of the Pugwash Conferences in European security problems, the Finnish group sponsored another international symposium at Helsinki in April1979. Their foreign minister, Paavo Vayrynen, opened the meeting, which considered the impact of current political developments and arms control efforts on European security. On this occasion, for the fust time at such an event, much of the discussion centred on the notion of the indivisibility of detente and the repercussions of events outside Europe and the competition for raw materials on relationships between the West and the socialist countries within Europe. Professor Jorma K. Miettinen organised and chaired this meeting as well as contributing much of the essential background paper which is Chapter 2. The papers now published represent between one-third and one-half of the total read and discussed on the three occasions. In one or two cases, as with that by Hans Gunter Brauch and those by Jorma Miettinen, there has obviously been substantial updating up to the end of January 1980. The revised versions which they have contributed are vital for an appreciation of developments in Europe relating to so-called military detente. Mostly, however, contributions are published as they stood at the time xii
Introduction xiii of the symposia with minor amendments and some editorial rewriting primarily to deal with language problems. As the editor directly responsible, I have had, because of the variety of linguistic sources, to make a large number of decisions relating to the English usage. Where the intention of the author has been obvious I have used an often radical editorial discretion to bring the expressions in line with contemporary idiom and usage. In many cases, however, it seemed better to leave the text submitted on the grounds that quite often the choice of words and phrases even in a foreign language has an inimitable quality and deletion or amendment might distort the true meaning. Such decisions have, however, also, and more significantly, been influenced by the varied styles of contribution selected. At symposia in which a wide range of ideological preconceptions are represented, inevitably the papers contributed are at a number of different levels. Some may be strictly academic and objective, while others, probably the majority from all quarters, contain an element of rhetoric. Rereading the papers which I had heard discussed, in particular, I was convinced that some of even the more blatant statements were vital to such a collection. More than the objective pieces they catch the atmosphere of the time. The passions aroused by the neuron bomb, for example, during 1977-78 deserve recording. This is particularly important in a volume which is concerned with public conf1dence, which in any case is more a matter of perceptions than objective truth. The inclusion of a variety of papers in this way may not only serve this purpose but implicitly reveal some truths about national standpoints and attitudes even as reflected in scholarly or scientific works. Finally, and directly in line with what has been said above, there has been an attempt to achieve balance not just by weighing the geographical sources of contributions but more by taking into account the spectrum of viewpoints. There were unfortunately no Soviet participants at the symposium on the Arctic but this does not necessarily mean that their likely perspectives were neglected. All this may be perceived in some quarters as justifying a kind of editorial carte blanche to include whatever was arbitrarily preferred. In some ways the exercise has been much more like painting a picture than creating a logical and defmitive structure. To have accepted exclusively academic criteria, would have been to preclude the kite-flying and the testing of propositions and means of reducing dangerous tensions which are essential if unofficial, subdiplomatic organisations like Pugwash are even to pretend to make a contribution to the improvement of international relationships. W.G.