Italian Firms, Global Markets 22 May 2012 CCIAA Parma Fabio Sdogati fabio.sdogati@polimi.it 1
Table of Contents 1. The Global Scenario 1.1. The Great Recession 1.2. Great Divergences 2. Internationalization 2.1. Productivity 2.2. Fragmentation of Production 2
1. The Global Scenario 1.1. The Great Recession Forecasts: 2012 real GDP growth UK 0.8 Japan 2.0 USA 2.1 DEU FRA ITA ESP 0.6 0.5-1.9-1.8 Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2012 3
1. The Global Scenario 1.1. The Great Recession Forecasts: 2012 real GDP growth Russia 4.0 Turkey 2.3 China 8.2 Mexico 3.6 Brazil 3.0 India 6.9 Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2012 4
1. The Global Scenario 1.2. Great Divergences Divergences between OECD and non-oecd countries: Contribution to annualized real GDP 8 6 4 2 0-2 OECD Non- OECD -4-6 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-8 Sources: OECD, Economic Outlook No. 90, 28 November 2011 Note: Calculated using moving nominal GDP weights, PPP. 5
1. The Global Scenario 1.2. Great Divergences Divergences between OECD and non-oecd countries: Growth of emerging markets (GDP, 2001=100) 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 Developing Asia Emerging and developing economies Central and eastern Europe Sub- Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Advanced economies Euro area 50 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, accessed on May 2012 6
1. The Global Scenario 1.2. Great Divergences Divergences between Europe and the US: Unemployment (%) 12 United States Euro area (EU17) 11 10.8% 10 9 8.3% 8 7 6 2009M01 2009M02 2009M03 2009M04 2009M05 2009M06 2009M07 2009M08 2009M09 2009M10 2009M11 2009M12 2010M01 2010M02 2010M03 2010M04 2010M05 2010M06 2010M07 2010M08 2010M09 2010M10 2010M11 2010M12 2011M01 2011M02 2011M03 2011M04 2011M05 2011M06 2011M07 2011M08 2011M09 2011M10 2011M11 2011M12 2012M01 2012M02 Source: Eurostat, accessed on May 2012 7
2. Internationalization 2.1. Productivity Ways out? Productivity Yet, from the Mediobanca Unioncamere report: La presenza delle medie imprese nei settori convenzionalmente definiti high tech è marginale tanto a livello nazionale quanto nel Nord Est. Secondo la metodologia OCSE (basata sull intensità delle spese di ricerca) l alta tecnologia copre appena il 3,1% del fatturato. 8
2. Internationalization 2.1. Productivity In Italy, high-technology (and productive) firms are very rare: Notes: Source: VA = value added; CL = Cost of Labor Mediobanca and Unioncamere, based on OCSE data 9
2. Internationalization 2.1. Productivity Labor productivity (output per hour, 2002=100) 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, accessed on May 2012 Taiwan Korea United States Japan Netherlands France Germany Italy 10
2. Internationalization 2.1. Productivity Value added by enterprise size class, non-financial businesses, 2008 Poland Romania Slovakia United Kingdom Germany Hungary Ireland Finland Lituania Czech Republic Austria Bulgaria EU-27 Sweden Belgium Denmark Slovenia Estonia Latvia Portugal Netherlands Luxemburg Spain ITALY Cyprus 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Source: Eurostat Micro (1-9) Small (10-49) Medium-sized (50-249) Large (250 or more) 11
2. Internationalization 2.1. Productivity Number of persons employed by enterprise size class, non-financial, 2008 Slovakia United Kingdom Germany Denmark Romania Finland Netherlands Sweden Slovenia Czech Republic Austria Ireland EU-27 Bulgaria Lituania Poland Luxemburg Belgium Estonia Latvia Hungary Spain Cyprus Portugal ITALY Source: Eurostat 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Micro (1-9) Small (10-49) Medium-sized (50-249) Large (250 or more) 12
2. Internationalization 2.1. Productivity Larger firms enjoy higher productivity: Apparent labour productivity (relative to total, %) Large 124.5 Medium-sized 105.3 Small 90.5 Micro 75.3 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Source: Eurostat 13
2. Internationalization 2.1. Productivity Larger firms enjoy higher productivity: Apparent labour productivity, EU-27, 2008 Thousand of per person employed 0 50 100 150 200 250 Network energy supply Mining & quarrying Real estate activities Water, sewerage, waste & recycling Information & communication Prof., scientific & technical activities Administrative & support services Transportation & storage Non-financial business economy Manufacturing Construction Distributive trades Repair: comp., pers. & h'hold goods Accommodation & food services SMEs Large enterprises Source: Eurostat 14
2. Internationalization 2.2. Fragmentation of Production Freer trade due to falling protectionist pressures Falling transport costs Falling coordination costs BOTH Mode 1: Global Resource Seeking Globally integrated enterprise AND Mode 2: Global Market Seeking High growth of per capita income in emerging countries Slow growth and deindustrialization in high per capita income countries 15
2. Internationalization 2.2. Fragmentation of Production Share of intermediate goods in non-fuel merchandise trade, 2010. China, Hong Kong Japan Italy Thailand Germany Slovakia China Indonesia World 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Source: UN Comtrade 2011. Import Export 16