West Bengal Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off; hence they may not add up to 100 where they should. 2. Weighted Data. 3. Figures for January based on Lokniti, CSDS-IBN National Tracker Poll conducted in West Bengal. 4. Figures for March based on Lokniti, CSDS-IBN NES Pre Poll survey conducted in West Bengal (fresh sample). 5. March survey fieldwork conducted between 19th and 24th March in 17 Parliamentary seats. 6. Sample size for March is 1440; Sample size for January was 1264. Table 1: Lok Sabha elections - Pre poll estimated vote share for West Bengal TMC widens the lead over Left Front Party/Allianc e Actual vote in 2009 Lok Sabha Elections (%) Survey-based vote estimate (%) January Survey-based vote estimate (%) March TMC 31.2 33 38 Left Front 43.3 25 25 Cong 13.5 19 16 BJP 6.1 14 12 AAP - 2 1 Others 5.9 7 8 Question asked: If Lok Sabha elections are held tomorrow which party will you vote for? Please mark your vote on this slip and put it in this box. Table 2: Regional picture Regions North Bengal South-West Bengal South-East Bengal Greater Kolkata Three-way split between Cong, TMC and Left TMC leads Left by a big margin TMC leads Left but gap not too wide Mainly a TMC vs BJP vs Left contest
Table 3: TMC has a huge lead over Left in urban Bengal Vote for TMC (%) Vote for Left (%) Rural 43 30 Urba n 54 21 The rest of the respondents indicated a vote preference for other parties Question asked: If Lok Sabha elections are held tomorrow which party will you vote for? Please mark your vote on this slip and put it in this box. Table 4: Muslims vote divided between TMC, Cong and Left in West Bengal Muslim vote (%) TM C Con g 35 28 Left 26 BJP 5 The rest of the respondents indicated a vote preference for other parties Question asked: If Lok Sabha elections are held tomorrow which party will you vote for? Please mark your vote on this slip and put it in this box.
Table 5: Net satisfaction with Trinamool government s performance has gone up in last two months, so has the net satisfaction with the UPA govt s performance (Net satisfaction is satisfaction percentage minus dissatisfaction percentage) Net satisfaction with Jan Mar Performance of State govt. +21 +38 Performance of Central govt. -4 +17 Questions asked: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of TMC government in West Bengal over the last three years? Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre over the last 5 years? Table 6: Most respondents say TMC state govt s work will be more important to them while voting than Central government s performance What will be more important to you while voting state or centre s work? % State govt s performance 40 Central govt s performance 19 Both equally 13 Neither/Other factors 4 Can t say 25 Questions asked: While voting, some people give more importance to the work done by the state government in Kolkata while others give more importance to the work done by the central government in Delhi. While voting in the Lok Sabha election, what will matter to you the most?
Table 7: No clear opinion in West Bengal about whether UPA should get another chance Should the UPA government get another chance after the Lok Sabha election? Opinion in West Bengal Jan Mar Yes 29 28 No 36 32 Can t say 35 40 Question asked: Should the Congress-led UPA government get another chance after the Lok Sabha election? Table 8: PM choice in West Bengal Modi still leads, Mamata and Rahul close behind Prime Minister choice in West Bengal Opinion in West Bengal Jan Mar Narendra Modi 18 15 Mamata Banerjee 11 12 Rahul Gandhi 9 12 Sonia Gandhi 3 1 Manmohan Singh 5 2 Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee 3 2 Others 1 3 Can t say 50 53 Question asked: Who would you prefer as the Prime Minister of the country after the next/ Lok Sabha election?
Table 9: Many in West Bengal feel that Mamata Banerjee will make a good Prime Minister if she becomes one All TMC voters Mamata Banerjee will make 38 67 a good PM if she becomes one Mamata Banerjee won t 28 11 make a good PM Can t say 34 22 Question asked: Will Mamata Banerjee make a good Prime Minister if she becomes one? Table 9a: Four out of ten TMC voters optimistic that Mamata can become PM after the election All TMC voters Mamata Banerjee can become PM 25 43 after LS polls Mamata Banerjee won t become PM 30 17 after LS polls Can t say 45 40 Question asked: Do you think Mamata Banerjee can become the next Prime Minister of India after the Lok Sabha election?
Table 10: Who is responsible for Left s poor condition in West Bengal? All Left voters Left party workers 13 11 Buddhadeb Bhattacharya 9 10 Prakash Karat 2 2 Biman Bose 2 2 All of the above 26 21 None 2 4 Others 2 2 Can t say 44 48 Question asked: Who among these would you hold most responsible for Left s poor condition in West Bengal today - Prakash Karat, Biman Bose, Buddhadeb Bhattacharya or party workers? Table 10: Top five voting issues in West Bengal Key voting issues in West Bengal % Development 19 Price rise 11 Unemployment 5 Condition of roads 4 Supply of drinking water 3 The rest of the respondents gave other answers. Question asked: What will be the single most important issue for you when you vote in the Lok Sabha election? (Record first answer and consult code book for coding)