THE EUROPEAN UNION AND ITS NEIGHBORHOODS: STABILISATION, DEMOCRATISATION, INTEGRATION Teachers: Jacques RUPNIK, Pierre MIREL Academic year 2018/2019: Paris School of International Affairs Fall Semester BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION Jacques RUPNIK, Directeur de Recherches CERI, Sciences Po A specialist on East European affairs J.R., a former adviser to Czech president Vaclav Havel, has been Executive director of the International Commission for the Balkans, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (1995-1996) and drafter of its report Unfinished Peace (1996). Member of the Independent International Commission on Kosovo (1999-2000) and co-drafter of The Kosovo Report (Oxford UP, 2000). Among other positions held: Member of the board of the Institute for Historical Justice and Reconciliation in The Hague since 2010; Member of the board of directors of the European Partnership for Democracy in Brussels (2008-2013). A visiting Professor in several European universities and in the Department of Government at Harvard University where he was Visiting scholar at the Center for European Studies. Publications: J. Rupnik has published a number of books and scholarly articles, including: The Other Europe (1989). Among the most recent: Western Balkans and the EU: the Hour of Europe, Paris EUISS (2011); 1989 as a Political World Event: Democracy, Europe and the new international system, Routledge, London (2013); Géopolitique de la Démocratisation: l Europe et ses voisinages, Presses de Sciences Po (2014). Europe at the Crossroads, edited volume by the Vaclav Havel Library in Prague (2018) Pierre MIREL, Honorary Director General, European Commission PhD Public Law, Poitiers University, 1980. French ministry of Foreign affairs 1971-1976: embassies in Cairo and Saïgon. Among the various positions held at the European Commission Headquarters, Brussels (1981-2013): Trade relations and trade cooperation with emerging countries; Head of Unit for the relations with Poland, the Baltic States and the Assistance programme PHARE 1989-2000); Director for the accession negotiations with Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia (2001-2004); Relations with Croatia and Turkey (2004-2006); Director for the Western Balkans (2006-2013). Member of the board of the Roma Education Fund. Publications: L Egypte des Ruptures. Editions Sinbad (1982). Elargissement et voisinage, les Politiques de l UE à l épreuve, in Géopolitique de la démocratisation, Opus cité 1
COURSE OUTLINE Session 1: Introduction: Legacies, Issues, Challenges The EU neighbours in the East, South East and South The three trajectories of post-1989 transition: Central and Eastern Europe, Western Balkans The legacies of the empires, of communism, of the wars In the South: an unstable neighbourhood Lines of questioning. Course assignments and their validation. Session 2: The Legal and Political frameworks The EU Treaty provisions; criteria and conditionality The two policies instruments A European perspective for the Balkans but not for Eastern countries The Berlin process, the Connectivity agenda The planned Regional economic area The Instrument for Pre-accession assistance (IPA) and the Neighbourhood Policy Instruments (NPI) The 2018 Enlargement strategy of the European commission and the European Council s position Session 3: Unfinished States and Protectorates in the WB The legacy of the Balkans wars of the 1990 s Under international administration: Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo The EU and the USA and nation-state building in the Balkans The role of other international actors: Russia, Turkey, China 20 years of international administration in Bosnia The EULEX mission in Kosovo Russia in the WB: from traditional bonds to political influence Session 4: Accession Negotiations: Serbia, Montenegro, Turkey From candidate status to accession negotiations: the road to the EU 2
The three pillars new approach : rule of law, economic governance and public administration reform. Towards a fourth pillar: the role of the civil society? Montenegro and Serbia s accessions to the EU in 2025? Turkey: fully-fledged negotiations or a special case? The Serbia-Kosovo dialogue: agreements and challenges An alternative to accession for Turkey: a strategic Partnership Session 5: EU Neighbourhood Policy: from a ring of friends to a ring of fire From the 2003 EU golden age to the crisis at Vilnius (2013). Follow-up at Riga (2015), Brussels (2017) Two rival projects: EU s Eastern Partnership and Russia s Eurasian Economic Union A shared neighborhood between the EU and the Russian Federation: to the brink-and back? On-going and frozen conflicts: Donbass; Transnistria; Ossetia and Abkhazia; Nagorno-Karabakh Achievements: visa liberalisation, trade and cooperation The Eurasian Economic Union and the Eastern Partnership Armenia between Brussels and Moscow Session 6: From Cooperation to Economic integration :The Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCFTA) The typology of trade agreements The DCFTA with Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova: principles, provisions and challenges The classical Association Agreements (AAs) and the AA/DCFTAs: similarities and differences Declarative Europeanisation and Counterrevolution in Ukraine: limited reforms, unlimited aid? The main features of the EU-Ukraine DCTFA Ukraine s reform path: constraints, achievements and challenges 3
Session 7: From the Barcelona process to a renewed neighborhood policy in the South The Barcelona Process, the neighborhood policy and the Arab Spring The Partnership for Democracy and Shared Prosperity after the Arab Spring A europeanised bilateral initiative: the Union for the Mediterranean From association to a DCFTA with Morocco, Tunisia and Jordan? A fragile transition in Tunisia EU-Morocco: from cooperation to economic integration? The EU support to Tunisia s transition 2011-2017 EU-Israel privileged relations: state of play, constraints Session 8: Migration challenges and the EU s response Scale and types of migrations from conflict zones and under developed countries: refugees, economic migrants European divides on migration: East/West and North/South? The EU at Turkey s mercy: a fool s bargain? The Balkans Road : WB and the refugee crisis The challenge of a mobility policy with South neighbours Migrations to the EU: current situation and predictions The EU s policies to contain migrations in Turkey, North Africa and Africa Session 9: The return of geopolitics and EU s Common Foreign and Security policy New threats and security challenges for the EU: the new strategic context The Balkans, a catalyst for the CFSP? The EU Treaty provisions on CSFP and CSDP A turning point in 2017: the agreed PESCO? The EURONAVFOR MED mission NATO and the EU s emerging autonomous defence 4
Session 10: The European Energy Union to the test The energy problematic: security, diversification and de-carbonisation The Three Seas Initiative Member states between solidarity and sovereignty EU-Russia and EU-USA energy relations Euro-Mediterranean energy dialogue Dependency and diversification: options, risks, perspectives The EU-Balkans Energy Community North Stream 2: a needed delivery tool or a political pipeline? Session 11: The effectiveness of the EU s transformative power Conditionality and soft power: the conditions for its effectiveness State capture, authoritarianism and media control: stability over democracy in the WB? The rise of illiberal democracy (Orban, Kaczynski) and authoritarianism (Erdogan and Putin) Conditionality before EU accession, no controls afterwards? Towards a new mechanism? The complementary role of the EU and the OSCE in the Western Balkans The rise of illiberal discourses and practices: varieties of populism Post-accession challenges to the Rule of Law and good neighbourly relations: the current EU s limitations and the new proposals Session 12: Conclusions: the Centre-Periphery Dialectic The EU multiple crisis and their impact on its external policies The Centre is in doubt, the destabilized periphery impacts blurs distinction between internal and external within the EU The EU s divides: internal : East / West and on external East vs South A Europe that protects The global strategy and the EU priorities Do the EU instruments and financial means sustain its ambitious policies? 5