( ) 2009 2 * 5 2007 5 20 90 2006 1.3 ( 2008) 1 ( 2008) (2008) 2005 1% 17 5800 28.29% ( 2008; 2005; 2006b) (Amuedo-Dorantes and Pozo2006;Kandel and Kao2001) (Borraz2005;Bryant2005;Cox Edwards and Ureta2003;Kandel and Kao2001;López2006;Yang2004) (NELMThe New Economics of Labor Migration) * ( ) (2006~2007) - 67 -
(Stark and Bloom1985;Stark and Taylor1991) 2007 2 ( 2003; 2006; 2005; 2006a; 2004; 2002) : 2006 129 53%( 2008) 4967 1327 1092 1164 1015 369 30 ( (Murphy2006;Rozelle et ) 75% 4967 al.1999;taylor et al.2003) 70.3% 29.7% 2007 3 6~15 4 ; ; 946 10.76 ; 59.06% 40.94% - 68 -
5.60% 67.12% 24.84% 1.90% 0.53% ( ) 2009 2 99.47% 41.37% 54.76% 3.88% ( ) ( 2.11%) ( 2) 926 1 40.28% 1/338.34% 60 8.75% ( 2006) 5 7.51 : (58.93%) 27.54% 52.72% 19.74% (15.22%) (1.59%) (Murphy2006) 81.6% 581 47.81% 1.6 48.16% 19.89% 40 70% 63.06% 1 % 15.01 15.22 6.3 % 25.27 26.19 33.86 % 50.97 51.86 47.24 % 6.48 5.13 7.87 % 2.27 1.59 4.72 926 565 127 : 3 4 : (38.71%) (32.48%) 17.58% 3 2 317 38.71 374 41.37! 266 32.48 347 38.38! " # $ % & ( ) * 144 17.58 27 2.99 +! " -. / 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 46 5.62 432 47.79 1 8 9 : ;! 11 1.34 63 6.97! < = 1 > 7 0.85 35 3.88? @ 28 3.42 904 100 A B 819 100 : : - 69 -
( 2006; ;(2) 2005) : ( 5.48%) (Kandel and Kao ( 1.94%) 2001) ( 5 ) (Multinomial Logit/Probit Model) ( 2002) 0 4 (Odds Ratios) (Greene2003) (Ordered Probit Model) 6 4 : 10.79 2.85 y 0.41 0.49 1! "#$%& 0.27 0.44 1! "#$%& ( () * 1.60 0.65 +-./#01 0.40 0.49 1! 2./#01+ +- 50.16 14.11 +-34567Á * =Xβ+e e X~N(01) (1) :y * ; y : y=0 y * c 1 ; y=1 c 1 <y * c 2 ; y=2 c 2 <y * c 3 ; y=3 c 3 <y * c 4 ; y=4 y * >c 4 c j (j=1234) - 70 - β (Hanson and Woodruff 2003;McKenzie and Rapoport2006) 3 ( 4 ):(1) ;(3) 89 0.34 0.47 1! 89:;67 "#$%& 0.44 0.50 1! "#$%&:;67 <=>?./Â 345 @ 7.50 2.82 AB 0.81 0.39 1! 2006 CABD E AB 578.30 814.30 F GHIJ 0.70 0.46 1! 2006 GHIJ :a. b.
( ) 2009 2 (Kandel1999) ( 2005) ( 2003) ( 2006) 9678 : (;<= 678 I II 0.0303 0.0344.5 (0.0225) (0.0225)!"0 2 0.1593Á0.1520Á (0.0884) (0.0885) -0.0363-0.0566!"0)*+- (0.1349) (0.1359) 12-0.1874Á-0.1954Á (0.0724) (0.0725)!" 0 * 0.0147 0.0372 34 (0.1533) (0.1569) 0.0006 0.0008.5 (0.0056) (0.0057) 0.1184 0.1436 ( (0.1324) (0.1317) )*+- 0.3786Á0.3950Á (0.1408) (0.1396)./ 0.0326Á0.0313Á (0.0164) (0.0163)!" 0.2209Á (0.1138) 0.0001Á (0.0001)!"#$%& -0.2034Á-0.2113Á (0.0924) (0.0937) Log pseudolikelihood -751.0589-753.2504 Wald chi2(11) 49.14 42.56 638 638 :(1) ;(2)*** ** * 1% 5% 10% ;(3) 5 ( 2006) 2006 5 I II ( ( ) 2004) - 71 -
( 2005) (Murphy2006) ; ( 6 III IV ) (5 6 6 V VI 9678/: ";<= III IV V V I 678 / 0 2 0#$%& 12 0 $ 34 (5 0.0465 0.0205 0.0492** -0.0725 (0.0376) (0.0292) (0.0242) (0.0785) 0.2292** -0.1067 (0.1034) (0.1761) -0.2867 0.1509 (0.2121) (0.1790) -0.2468** -0.142-0.2269*** -0.1187 (0.1237) (0.0921) (0.0876) (0.1255) -0.1204 0.1031 0.0183-0.0034 (0.2270) (0.2004) (0.1764) (0.3024) -0.0037 0.0024 0.0003-0.0013 (0.0086) (0.0070) (0.0063) (0.0113)!" #$%& 0.229 0.4541** 0.0001 0.2709 0.1189 0.3162* 0.1091 0.4639* (0.2030) (0.2170) (0.1772) (0.1886) (0.1615) (0.1673) (0.2458) (0.2687) () *+-./ -0.0008 0.0003** -0.1431 0.0610*** 0.0001** -0.2298* 0.0603*** 0.0001-0.1619-0.0251 0.0007*** -0.2949 (0.0243) (0.0001) (0.1378) (0.0221) (0.0001) (0.1243) (0.0201) (0.0001) (0.1066) (0.0271) (0.0002) (0.1855) Log pseudolikelihood -319.0053-425.3924-546.5697-189.5082 Wald chi2(10) 25.06 37.71 41.21 28.25 270 368 463 171 :(1) III IV V VI ;(2) ;(3)*** ** * 1% 5% 10% ;(4) - 72 -
( ) 2009 2 12006 21~50 78.8%( 2008) 2 (2006) 3 2006 100%( 2005; 2008) 4 (2008) 17 5 6 9 12 15 6 : (CGAP) Wooldridge (2002pp.504~508) (1) http://www.bozhou.gov.cn2008 (2) : www.bwtp.org/asiamicrofinance/en- jiangcheng.pdf2006 (3) : http: //www.stats.gov.cn2008 (4) 2002 9 (5) 2008-21 (6) : ( ) 2003 3 (7) 2006 6 (8) http:// : : : : www.cqdy.com.cn2008-73 -
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