December 04, 2018 2:00 EST/1:00 CST Our thanks to today s sponsor:
How Do You Want Your Brexit: Hard, Soft, or Scrambled?
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Today s Presenters Headshot here, sized to placeholder. Headshot here, sized to placeholder. Simon Scott VP, EMEA Altair Global Ben Sheldrick Managing Partner Magrath Sheldrick LLP
Agenda Brexit Origins Current Status Withdrawal Agreement Contents Transition Period UK Business Effects Proactive Business Practices Hot Topics Immigration Overview and Questions Broader Consequences of No Deal
Brexit Origins UK Public voted to leave on June 23, 2016 Shock result: 51.9% to 48.1% Turnout 71.8% Concern over UK immigration was a significant factor EU control over sovereignty was another major factor Rise of Populism and Nationalism across EU Leaving date: 11:00 p.m. on March 29, 2019
Current Status Withdrawal Agreement 585 page legally binding text which sets the terms of the UK s divorce from the EU Ratified by EU on November 25, 2018 Must be agreed by UK Parliament by vote on December 11, 2018 Future Political Declaration 26 page statement on future relations Not legally binding but sketches out possible longterm relationship
Current Status Next Steps UK Parliament vote on December 11, 2018 If there is a failure to agree, UK Government have three weeks to try again, then; Renegotiation/delay to Brexit date? Second public referendum? General election? Strong possibility of a No Deal scenario? Renegotiation with EU?
Withdrawal Agreement Contents Main Provisions: UK ceases to be members of EU institutions Preserves frictionless trade Agreement to Divorce Bill Citizens rights Fishing rights 2 year transition timeline Free movement of people ends Concerns: UK still has to abide by rules of EU institutions (until end of transition) Laws and disputes overseen by ECJ Irish Backstop - no guaranteed future trade deal Cannot implement other trade deals until question of trade finalized with EU
The Transition Period Key Aspects: Ends December 31, 2020, but may be extended by up to two years with agreement from minimum 20 EU Countries, and payment of around 10bn per year to EU Free movement of people will continue unchanged UK remains part of the Customs Union UK will be able to negotiate new trade agreements*
UK Business Effects In June 2018, EY reported that 34% (or 75 out of 222 companies monitored) had publicly confirmed or stated their intention to move some of their operations and/or staff from the UK to Europe. Financial Services Legal/Professional Services Technology Companies Automotive/Manufacturing
Proactive Business Practices Manage Risk: Identify how many EU and non-eu personnel are employed directly (make distinction between British and other EU) Review supply chain and workforce planning to determine dependency on Continental (EU) labour Think about location strategy e.g. whether a mainly UK outbound exporter needs to have a footprint in EU Develop a communication strategy and plan
Hot Topics Talent Acquisition Engineering Hospitality Agricultural EU Nationals without a Right to Reside Availability and Cost of Housing and School Places Social Security Coverage: Certificates of Coverage Creditworthiness European-wide Social Healthcare
EU Free Movement Status Quo Four Freedoms: Goods, Services, Capital, and People People: Work, Study, Self-Employment, Self-Sufficient Light Touch Border
EU Free Movement Status Quo Simple Legal Right to Work Check Right to Family Life and Reunion Permanent Residence after Five Years
Rest of World Status Quo Domestic Immigration Arrangements: Points Based System Tier 1 Investors and Entrepreneurs Tier 2 Sponsorship: General (permanent hire, subject to RLMT and quota) Intra-Company Transfer five years maximum Tier 3 Low Skilled Migration Tier 4 Students Tier 5 Temporary Workers Domestic Immigration Rules for Family Members
UK Immigration Policy Since 2010 Reduce Net Migration to Below 100K Per Annum Year to June 2017 net migration = +230k (106k down on same period for the previous year) Year to March 2018 net migration = +271k Impact of EU supply on non-eea schemes Tier 2 (general) quota 21,700 RCOS Demand Exceeds Supply December 2017 to May 2018
Brexit Timeline
EU Settlement Scheme - Logistics
Post-Brexit Immigration Policy Options Policy Background: Taking Back Control Options: Points Based System Work Permits Shortage Occupation Resident Labour Market Test Sectoral or Regional Schemes EU Preferential Arrangements Free Trade Agreement
Broader Consequences of No Deal 2017 Worldwide ERC No One Actively Supports a No Deal, but Some Claim It May Be Preferable to a Punitive Deal Predictions of economic disaster for the UK In the absence of a deal, perhaps UK would not have to pay its divorce bill? GBP 39bn to offset negative effects Free of EU Control UK able to slash tariffs and taxes and embark on Singapore type future? Brexiteers fear may trigger a political crisis which would end with UK staying in EU The UK isn t ready for No Deal!
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