Convergence: a narrative for Europe 12 June 218
1.Our economies 2
Luxembourg Ireland Denmark Sweden Netherlands Austria Finland Germany Belgium United Kingdom France Italy Spain Malta Cyprus Slovenia Portugal Czech Republic Estonia Greece Slovakia Lithuania Latvia Hungary Poland Croatia Romania Bulgaria GDP per capita (in ) 1. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 27 217 EU 27 average, 27 EU average 27, 217 Source : Eurostat 3
Luxembourg Ireland Netherlands Austria Denmark Sweden Germany Belgium Finland United Kingdom France Italy Malta Spain Czech Republic Cyprus Slovenia Portugal Slovakia Lithuania Estonia Poland Greece Hungary Latvia Croatia Romania Bulgaria sd(log GDP per capita, PPP) GDP per capita (in ) in PPP 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3.,3,25,2,15,1,5 EU 27 2. 1. 27 216 EU 27 average 27 EU 27 average 216 Source : Eurostat 4
Greece Spain Italy Croatia Cyprus France Portugal Latvia Finland Slovakia Belgium Lithuania Sweden Ireland Slovenia Bulgaria Estonia Denmark Luxembourg Austria Poland Romania Netherlands United Kingdom Hungary Malta Germany Czech Republic SD (Unemployment rate) Unemployment rate % σ-convergence 6, 25 2 15 1 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 5, EU 27 27 217 EU 27 average, 27 EU 27 average, 217 Source : Eurostat 5
Long-term unemployment rate (% active population) 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 27 217 EU 27 average, 27 EU 27 average, 217 Source : Eurostat 6
1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Current account as % of GDP 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 DE FR IE IT GR PT ES NL Other EA US Source: Ameco, European Commission and Fred (Federal Reserve of St. Louis)
LU CY IE* NL DK SE BE PT UK FI ES FR MT GR AT EE IT BG HR DE SK LV PO SI HU CZ LT RO US** % GDP Debt in % of GDP (households and non-financial corporates, government) 4 35 3 25 2 Peak Average EU 27 Average EU 27, government debt 2 15 1 5 Notes: * Private debt data for Ireland are based on central bank statistics (CCB indicators), which are based on national bank credit data, thereby excluding debt of foreign affiliates. ** Private debt data for US are based on World Development Indicators and GG debt on Fred statistics. Sources: Eurostat, Irish National Central Bank Statistics, World Development Indicators, Fred.
2.The way we are organised 9
Ease of doing business Rankings, 217 84 67 63 45 46 48 5 51 52 53 37 39 27 28 29 3 31 32 1 12 13 16 17 19 2 22 Source: World Bank, Ease of Doing Business. Economies are ranked on their ease of doing business, from 1 19. The ranking does not include EU countries only. A high ease of doing business ranking means the regulatory environment is more conducive to the starting and operation of a local firm. 3 Denmark Sweden Estonia Finland Lithuania Ireland Latvia Germany Austria Poland Spain Portugal Czech Republic France Netherlands Slovenia Slovak Republic Romania Italy Hungary Bulgaria Croatia Belgium Cyprus Luxembourg Greece Malta 1
Greece Slovenia Italy Cyprus Slovak Republic Poland Croatia Ireland Czech Republic Hungary Bulgaria Portugal Netherlands Romania Spain Belgium Malta Germany Denmark Finland Sweden Latvia Estonia United Kingdom Austria France Lithuania Luxembourg Time required to enforce a contract, (days) 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 23 217 EU 27 Average, 23 EU 27 Average, 217 2 World Bank, Doing Business. Data for Cyprus, Luxembourg and Malta non available for 23 11
Netherlands Denmark Luxembourg Sweden Finland United Kingdom Germany Austria Ireland Estonia Belgium France Malta Spain Czech Republic Slovenia Poland Hungary Slovakia Italy Latvia Cyprus Portugal Croatia Romania Lithuania Greece Bulgaria Level of internet access, % households 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Source: Eurostat 27 217 EU 27 average, 27 EU 27 average, 217 12
Sweden Lithuania Germany Estonia Denmark United Kingdom Netherlands Latvia Finland Austria Czech Republic Portugal Slovenia Luxembourg Bulgaria Ireland France Cyprus Hungary Slovakia Belgium Poland Romania Spain Croatia Malta Italy Greece Female participation rate, % female labour force 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 27 217 EU 27 Average 27 EU 27 Average 217 Eurostat 13
Estonia Czech Republic Germany United Kingdom Austria Slovakia Portugal Finland Latvia Netherlands France Denmark Lithuania Bulgaria Spain Hungary Cyprus Sweden Malta Slovenia Poland Belgium Luxembourg Italy Romania Greece Ireland Gender pay gap % average gross hourly earnings of men 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 27 216 Average EU27, 27 Average EU27, 217 Source: Eurostat The indicator measures the difference between average gross hourly earnings of male paid employees and of female paid employees as a percentage of average gross hourly earnings of male paid employees. The indicator has been defined as unadjusted, because it gives an overall picture of gender inequalities in terms of pay and measures a concept which is broader than the concept of equal pay for equal work. All employees working in firms 14 with ten or more employees, without restrictions for age and hours worked, are included.
Foreign-born population, % total population 5,% 45,% 4,% 35,% 3,% 25,% 2,% 15,% 1,% 5,%,% Source: Eurostat 29 217 EU 27 average, 29 EU 27 average, 217 15
3. Preparing for the future 16
Estonia Netherlands Denmark Finland Slovenia Belgium Germany Poland Austria Sweden France Czech Republic Portugal Italy Spain Luxembourg Latvia Malta Lithuania Hungary Slovak Republic Croatia Greece Romania Bulgaria Cyprus PISA Scores, Mathematics 6 5 4 3 2 1 Source: OECD 26 215 EU 27 average, 26 EU 27 average, 215 17
PISA Scores, Reading 6 5 4 3 2 1 Source: OECD 26 215 EU-27 average, 215 18
Financial Literacy Scores, 215 (%) 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 DK SE UK NL DE FI CZ IE BE EE HU LU AT FR ES SK LV GR MT SI HR PL LT IT CY BG PT RO Financial Literacy Score EU 27 average Source: S&P Global FinLit Survey, 215 19
Renewable energy share Renewable energy share targets and progress as of 215 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % RES share in 215 Amount exceeding country-specific 22 target Amount missing from country-specific 22 target EU 22 target Note: 'Renewable energy share' is the share of energy from renewable sources in gross final consumption of energy. Source: Bruegel based on European Commission 2
SK ES PL IE PT GR CY RO SI BG LT AT DE EE LV HR HU CZ IT NL LU UK MT FR BE DK FI SE Old-age dependency ratio % of GDP, change 22-25 15% 85% 65% 45% 54% 25% 5% -15% -35% Source: Demertzis and Batsaikhan (218) Old-age dependency ratio (change 22-25) EU28, old-age dependency ratio (change 22-25) 21
Pension expenditure, 215, % GDP 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 IE LT LV MT RO EE BG CZ SK HU LU HR CY SI SE UK DE PL ES BE NL FI DK AT PT FR IT EL Old age pension Partial pension Early retirement benefit due to reduced capacity to work Early retirement benefit for labour market reasons Anticipated old age pension Disability pension Survivors pension EU 27 Average 22
Greece Spain Italy Croatia Cyprus Portugal France Finland Belgium Slovakia Romania Sweden Latvia Luxembourg Poland Ireland Lithuania Bulgaria United Kingdom Estonia Slovenia Denmark Hungary Malta Austria Netherlands Czech Republic Germany Youth unemployment rate, % active population 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 27 217 EU 27 average, 27 EU 27 average, 217 Source : Eurostat 23
Net fixed capital formation, % GDP 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% MT SE CY EE LT PL AT LU BG CZ HU UK HR FR NL RO DK FI BE ES DE SK IE IT PT SI LV GR 27 217 EU 27 average, 27 EU 27 average, 217 Source : Eurostat 24
The Rule of Law Source: World bank 25
The Rule of Law Source: World bank 26
The Rule of Law Source: World bank 27
Institutions matter Institutional quality and GDP per capita PPS Institutional quality and ease of doing business Source: World Bank and AMECO, 216 Source: World Bank Ease of doing business (DB218) and World Governance Indicators
Thank you! 29
Income Inequality: Gini Coefficient (disposable income) Source: World Bank, Poverty and Equity database.
Greenhouse gas emissions reduction (relative to 25) Greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets and progress as of 215 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% Emissions reduction in 215 Amount missing from 23 target Amount exceeding 23 target EU 22 target EU 23 target 22 target Note: 'GHG emissions' are emissions from non-ets sectors (i.e. those covered by the Effort Sharing Decision). Emissions reduction are measured relatively to 25 levels. Negative emissions reductions in 215 implies that emissions were higher in 215 compared to 25. Source: Bruegel based on European Commission 31