Ersin Özsahin The International Constraints on Regime Changes
Ersin Özsahin The International Constraints on Regime Changes How Globalization Hinders the Prospects for Democratization
Bibliographic information published by the Deutsche Nationalbibliothek The Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data are available in the Internet at http://dnb.d-nb.de. Dissertation der Universität Konstanz Referent: Prof. Dr. Gerald Schneider Referent: Prof. Dr. Christoph Knill Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 20. Mai 2009 1st Edition 2010 All rights reserved VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften GWV Fachverlage GmbH, Wiesbaden 2010 Editorial Office: Katrin Emmerich / Sabine Schöller VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften is part of the specialist publishing group Springer Science+Business Media. www.vs-verlag.de No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the copyright holder. Registered and/or industrial names, trade names, trade descriptions etc. cited in this publication are part of the law for trade-mark protection and may not be used free in any form or by any means even if this is not specifically marked. Cover design: KünkelLopka Medienentwicklung, Heidelberg Print and binding: Rosch-Buch, Scheßlitz Printed on acid-free paper Printed in Germany ISBN 978-3-531-16986-6
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Contents 1 Introduction 13 1.1 The focus of this book...... 13 1.2 The puzzle of the directions of transitions...... 20 1.3 Past research... 26 1.4 The theoretical synthesis..... 37 2 The economic constraints on regime changes notes towards a coherent formalization 41 2.1 The structure of the argument... 41 2.2 Preferences over institutions... 48 2.3 Economic structure, sources of economic distortions, and integration into world markets... 51 2.4 Summarizing the argument... 59 3 Modeling transition 63 3.1 The focus of this chapter.... 63 3.2 The economy...... 64 3.3 The transition game... 69 3.3.1 The basic set up... 69 3.3.2 The sequential equilibria of the transition game.... 76 3.3.3 The comparative static... 82 3.4 Implications... 86 4 Research design 93 4.1 The Structure of this chapter... 93
8 Contents 4.2 The operationalization of institutional alterations..... 93 4.3 Independent variables...... 101 4.4 The estimation technique: the ordered logistic regression model. 114 5 Results 121 5.1 Measuring institutional alterations: dichotomous vs. rank ordered measures...121 5.2 Results of the ordered logistic regression model: first insights... 126 5.3 The effect of integration on the prospects of democratization... 137 5.4 Scrutinizing distinct regime types....149 5.5 Summarizing the findings....154 6 Conclusion 159 Appendix 166 References 190
List of Figures 1.1 Trends of economic and institutional development Chile 1950-2000... 17 1.2 Trends of economic and institutional development Singapore 1950-2000.... 18 1.3 Evolution of regime types between 1950 and 2000... 21 3.1 The transition game... 70 3.2 The sequential equilibria of the transition game... 82 4.1 The distribution of levels of trade dependence between democracies and autocracies...103 4.2 The distribution of FDI-to-GCF-ratio between democracies and autocracies...104 4.3 The distribution of development levels between democracies and autocracies...105 5.1 The marginal effect of trade dependence on institutional alterations as per capita GDP increases...131 5.2 The marginal effect of trade dependence on institutional alterations as level of autocracy increases...133 5.3 The marginal effect of inequality on institutional alterations as ethnic fractionalization increases...134 5.4 The outcome probabilities as FDI-to-GCF-ratio increases...137 5.5 The outcome probabilities as trade dependence increases...139 5.6 The outcome probabilities as economic development increases.. 140
10 List of Figures 5.7 The effect of high trade dependence on institutional alterations as economic development increases...141 5.8 The effect of low trade dependence on institutional alterations as economic development increases...142 5.9 The effect of trade dependence on institutional alterations as level of autocracy increases...144 5.10 The effect of inequality on institutional alterations as ethnic fractionalization increases...145 5.11 The effect of low inequality on institutional alterations as ethnic fractionalization increases...146 5.12 The outcome probabilities as membership in int. Organizations varies and the democracy level of trade partners increases..... 148 5.13 The outcome probabilities as FDI-GCF-ratio increases...151 5.14 The effect of trade dependence on institutional alterations of authoritarian regimes as level of autocracy increases...151 5.15 The outcome probabilities as FDI-to-GCF-ratio increases..... 152 5.16 The effect of high trade dependence as economic development increases...152 5.17 The outcome probabilities as the integration indicators increase.. 154
List of Tables 1.1 Directions of institutional alterations.... 22 4.1 Summary statistics of the utilized variables (1970-2000)...113 4.2 Operationalization of the hypotheses....114 5.1 Institutional alterations vs regime change (1950-2000): overall sample and democracies...123 5.2 Institutional alterations vs regime change (1950-2000): partial regimes and autocracies...124 5.3 Institutional alterations vs regime change (1950-2000): partial regimes according Epstein et al. (2006)...125 5.4 The effect of economic integration on institutional alterations results of the ordered logistic regression model (1970-200)...129 5.5 The effect of economic integration on institutional alterations - odds ratios and percentage changes.....135 5.6 Effect of economic integration on institutional alterations - distinct subsamples (1970-2000)...150