The Political Geography of Campaign Finance

The Political Geography of Campaign Finance

Also by the authors The Invisible Hands of Political Parties in Presidential Elections: Party Activists and Political Aggregation from 2004 to 2012 (2013) Andrew Dowdle, Scott Limbocker, Song Yang, Karen Sebold, and Patrick A. Stewart Debatable Humor: Laughing Matters on the 2008 Presidential Primary Campaign (2012) Patrick A. Stewart The Obama Presidency: Change and Continuity (2011) Edited by Andrew Dowdle, Dirk C. van Raemdonck, and Robert Maranto

The Political Geography of Campaign Finance Fundraising and Contribution Patterns in Presidential Elections, 2004 2012 Joshua L. Mitchell, Karen Sebold, Andrew Dowdle, Scott Limbocker, and Patrick A. Stewart

THE POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY OF CAMPAIGN FINANCE Copyright Joshua L. Mitchell, Karen Sebold, Andrew Dowdle, Scott Limbocker, and Patrick A. Stewart 2015 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2015 978-1-137-44557-5 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission. In accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6-10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. First published 2015 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of Nature America, Inc., One New York Plaza, Suite 4500, New York, NY 10004-1562. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. ISBN 978-1-349-57744-6 ISBN 978 1 137 43265 0 DOI 10.1057/9781137432650 (ebook) Distribution in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Mitchell, Joshua, 1955 The political geography of campaign finance : fundraising and contribution patterns in presidential elections, 2004 2012 / by Joshua L. Mitchell, Karen Sebold, Andrew Dowdle, Scott Limbocker, and Patrick A. Stewart. pages cm Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Campaign funds United States. 2. Political geography United States. 3. Presidents United States Election Finance. 4. Presidents United States Election 2004. 5. Presidents United States Election 2008. 6. Presidents United States Election 2012. I. Sebold, Karen. II. Dowdle, Andrew. III. Limbocker, Scott. IV. Stewart, Patrick A., 1966 V. Title. JK1991.M68 2015 324.7 80973090511 dc23 2015014266 A catalogue record for the book is available from the British Library.

We would like to dedicate this book to the following people: Radley Jack Mitchell, Jennifer Dowdle, Corinna Limbocker, Jennifer Stewart, David Sebold, Stacey Mitchell, and Bobby Sebold. Patrick A. Stewart would like to dedicate this book to the newest addition to his family, Larraine Launa. We would also like to dedicate this book in memory of Roger Thompson and Dawn Mitchell. Karen Sebold would like to dedicate this book to her dearly departed grandmother Annie K. Harp Keith. Thank you for your support during this process. Without each of you, this book would not have been possible.

Contents List of Illustrations Acknowledgments ix xiii 1 The Political Geography of Campaign Contributions 1 2 The Timing of Presidential Campaign Contributions 29 3 Participation in the Early Financing of Presidential Candidates 53 4 A Tale of Two Parties? Do Republicans and Democratic Contenders Have Different Geographical Fundraising Bases? 77 5 Median Income: An Alternative Explanation for Campaign Contributions 97 6 Conclusion and Discussion 113 Appendix A: Methods 125 Appendix B: Data Collection Appendix 135 Appendix C: Timing Appendix 139 Appendix D: Income 147 Appendix E: Alaska and Hawaii Maps 169 Notes 179 Bibliography 185 Index 197

List of Illustrations Tables 1.1 Top Donor Counties for the 2012 Preprimary 16 2.1 Geography of Fundraising: First Two Months, Democrats 2004 47 2.2 Geography of Fundraising: First Two Months, Democrats 2008 48 2.3 Geography of Fundraising: First Two Months, Republicans 2008 49 2.4 Geography of Fundraising: First Two Months, Republicans 2012 50 3.1 Gini Coefficients for Each Election 74 D.1 Typology of Counties Based on Number of Contributors and Total Money Donated in 2004 148 D.2 Typology of Counties Based on Number of Contributors and Total Money Donated in 2008 149 D.3 Typology of Counties Based on Number of Contributors and Total Money Donated in 2012 149 D.4 Regional Trends in Participation and Total Donations Per Capita in 2004 150 D.5 Regional Trends in Participation and Total Donations Per Capita in 2008 150 D.6 Regional Trends in Participation and Total Donations Per Capita in 2012 151 D.7 Median Income by County 152 D.8 Lowest Median Income by County 154 D.9 Highest Median Income by County 157

x LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS Maps 1.1 Geography of Early Fundraising 19 1.2 Geography of Early Fundraising Controlling for Population 20 1.3 Total Donations by County for the Republicans (GOP) 23 1.4 Total Donations by County for Democrats 24 3.1 Geography of 2012 Fundraising 61 3.2 2012 Per Capita Totals Map 64 3.3 2008 Sum Total Map 67 3.4 2008 Per Capita Totals Map 68 3.5 2004 Sum Total Map 69 3.6 2004 Per Capita Totals Map 70 4.1 Partisanship Map 2004 86 4.2 Partisanship Map 2008 88 4.3 Partisanship Map 2012 91 5.1 Map of Adjusted Wealth by County for the 2004 Elections 104 5.2 Map of Adjusted Wealth by County for the 2008 Elections 106 5.3 Map of Adjusted Wealth by County for the 2012 Elections 109 D.1 Median Income by County for 2012 161 D.2 Ratio of Median Income to the Total Sum of Individual Donors by County for 2004 162 D.3 Ratio of Median Income to the Total Sum of Individual Donors by County for 2008 164 D.4 Ratio of Median Income to the Total Sum of Individual Donors by County for 2012 166 E.1 Money Contributed by County in 2012 in Alaska and Hawaii 169 E.2 Geography of Early Fundraising Controlling for Population in 2012 in Alaska and Hawaii 169

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS xi E.3 Total Donations by County for Republicans, or the Republican Party, in 2012 in Alaska and Hawaii 170 E.4 Total Donations by County for Democrats in 2012 in Alaska and Hawaii 170 E.5 Geography of 2012 Fundraising in Alaska and Hawaii 171 E.6 2012 Per Capita Totals in Alaska and Hawaii 171 E.7 2008 Sum Total in Alaska and Hawaii 172 E.8 2008 Per Capita Totals in Alaska and Hawaii 172 E.9 2004 Sum Total in Alaska and Hawaii 173 E.10 2004 Per Capita Totals in Alaska and Hawaii 173 E.11 Partisanship for 2004 in Alaska and Hawaii 174 E.12 Partisanship for 2008 in Alaska and Hawaii 174 E.13 Partisanship for 2012 in Alaska and Hawaii 175 E.14 Adjusted Wealth of Individual Counties for the 2004 Elections 175 E.15 Adjusted Wealth by County for the 2008 Elections 176 E.16 Adjusted Wealth by County for the 2012 Elections 176 E.17 Median Income by County in Alaska and Hawaii 177 E.18 Ratio of Median Income to the Total Sum of Individual Donors by County for 2004 in Alaska and Hawaii 177 E.19 Ratio of Median Income to the Total Sum of Individual Donors by County for 2008 in Alaska and Hawaii 178 E.20 Ratio of Median Income to the Total Sum of Individual Donors by County for 2012 in Alaska and Hawaii 178 Charts C.1 Total Sum of Donations during the 2004, 2008, and 2012 Preprimary 141

xii LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS C.2 Average Number of Donations during the 2004, 2008, and 2012 Preprimary 144 Figures 2.1 Duration of the 2004 Democratic Preprimary Contest 38 2.2 Duration of the 2004 Democratic Preprimary Excluding Short Campaigns 38 2.3 Duration of the 2008 Democratic Preprimary Contest 40 2.4 Duration of the 2008 Republican Preprimary Contest 41 2.5 Duration of the 2012 Republican Preprimary Contest 42 A.1 Interval Scale of a Continuous Distribution 127 A.2 Interval Scale of a Non-Continuous Distribution 127 A.3 Interval Scale of a Non-Continuous Distribution Clustered between Upper and Lower Values 128 A.4 Interval Scale of a Non-Continuous Distribution Clustered around Upper Values 128

Acknowledgments We would like to thank Margaret Reid and Todd Shields of the University of Arkansas for providing many of the resources necessary for this project. Our gratitude also extends to Hanna Ford and Jackson Cothren at the Geospatial Center at the University of Arkansas for providing us with technical assistance during this process. We would also like to thank the following graduate students for assisting us in collecting and managing data since 2014: Kacey Keefe, Rachael Moyer, Merritt Royal, and Spencer Hall. We also benefited greatly from the valuable insights of the anonymous reviewers who reviewed our proposal to Palgrave Macmillan. Last but not least, we would also like to thank Palgrave Macmillan for publishing this work and for all of the assistance that Elaine Fan and Brian O Connor provided us at various stages.