Revisiting and Extending Peter Mair: The Impact of Europe on National Parties and Party Systems in the Times of Economic Crisis Ilke TOYGUR Universidad Autonoma de Madrid (UAM) European University Institute (EUI)
Introduction Revisiting Peter Mair (000) Data / Recoding / Findings Conclusions Future Agenda Outline 1
What is the effect of Europe on: Citizens daily lives through economic decisions? Political parties? National party systems? Elections? Parliaments? Introduction
Who is representing European citizens? Is there a multilevel problem? Is this just the economic crisis? Or a combined outcome of all the changes Europe has been going through? 3
Can we claim Europe affects more the national political parties and the party systems now? In the light of the economic crisis? If so, how this will affect the national elections? EP elections? 4
In the light of the economic crisis in Europe: Is there also a problem of first-orderness of the national parliamentary elections? What happens to the second-orderness of the EP elections? Do we need to revisit Raif & Schmitt? 5
Where do we start from? Revisiting Peter Mair (000) The Limited Impact of Europe on National Party Systems New Data: The Chapel Hill Expert Survey (010) & The Most Recent National Parliamentary Elections Revisiting Peter Mair 6
Two dimensions that we will discuss: Format of a party system can be described as the number of relevant parties in the electoral arena. The mechanics of a party system on the other hand concerns the modes of interaction between the related parties. 7
Why Europe should matter more?? 8
The Chapel Hill Expert Survey (010): 4 Member States (except Luxembourg, Cyprus, Malta) Positioning parties on pro/anti European integration dimension Checking their vote shares for the latest national parliamentary elections 9
STOP! There are many new national political parties? What should we do with them? Recode and group them as well! One more (actually ) expert in the survey! 10
Table 3: Newly Established Political Parties in Member States Placement % of the Votes - Anti/Pro in the last Name of the Newly Established Political Country Year Scale EU Party National Integratio Elections n Austria Team Frank Stronach (FRANK) 01 1 5.7 The New Austria and Liberal Forum 01 3 5 Croation Labourists - Labour Party 010 5. Croatia Czech Republic ANO 011 01 1 18.7 Dawn of Direct Democracy 013 6.9 Alternative for Germany 013 1 4.7 Germany Independent Greeks 01 1 7.5 Greece Democratic Left 010 3 6.3 Italy Democratic Centre 01 3 0.5 Brothers of Italy 01 Five Star Movement 009 1 5.6 Civic Choice 01 3 8.3 Lithuania Way of Courage 01 8 Polonia Your Movement 011 3 10 Ordinary People and Independent Slovakia Personalities 011 8.6 Slovenia Positive Slovenia 011 3 8.5 Civic List 011 3 8.4 Amaiur 011 1.4 Spain Compromise Coalition 010 0.5 Asturian Forum 011 0.4 Yes to the Future 011 0. Source: Author's self evaluation for completing the Chapel Hill Expert Survey Note: There are some political parties that are not newly established, however still haven't been coded by the Chapel Hill Expert Survey. These parties are Left Front (France, Group 1), Radical Party of the Left (France, Group 3), Radical Party (France, Group 3), Golden Dawn (Greece, Group 1), People Before Profit (Ireland, Group 1), Latvian Way (Latvia, Group ), 50 Plus (Netherlands, Group ), Initative for Catalonian Greens (Spain, Group ), Sinn Fein (UK, Group 1), Democratic Unionist Party (UK, Group 1) 11
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What can we comment about these numbers? Is there any country that Europe is in danger? More anti-europeans than pro? Greece? Italy? Spain? Portugal? Germany? 13
Table 5: Support for Parties in the Most Recent National Elections, By Position on European Integration Country 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 13 14 Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain Sweden United Kingdom Percentage Votes for Strongly Pro-European Integration Parties (N of Parties) Percentage Votes for Strongly Anti-European Integration Parties (N of Parties) Percentage Votes for Parties Neither Strongly Pro nor Strongly Anti European Integration (N of Parties) 000 (Mair) 013 (Toygur) 000 (Mair) 013 (Toygur) 000 (Mair) 013 (Toygur) 71.9 (3) 68. (4). () 9.7 (3) 4.8 (1) 0 (1) 7.8 (7) 83.9 (10) 0(0) 8. (3) 1.0 (5).3 (1) 77.1 (5) 71 (5) 1.5 (3) 19.8 (3) 10.0 () 9. (1) 49.0 (3) 66.8 (5) 6.0 () 19 (1) 40.6 (3) 1.1 () 49.3 (4) 68.9 (8) 16.1 () 0.5 (4) 0. () 0 (0) 75.5 (3) 73 (3) 1.8 (1) 4.7 (1) 18.5 (3) 16 () 9.0 (4) 48.3 (4) 5.6 (1) 45.8 (5) 0 (0) 0 (0) 3.7 () 7.9 (3) 0(0) 1.1 (3) 58.0 (6) 1.8 (1) 39.9 (4) 35.8 (10) 4.3 () 9.7 () 8.9 (3) 9.4 (6) 56.4 (3) 43.5 (4) 0.6 (1) 19.7 () 37.1 (5) 35.5 (5) 79.6 (3) 78.5 (3) 9.9 (3) 0 (0) 9.3 () 13.1 () 85.9 (10) 84. (8) 0(0) 0 (0) 10.7 (1) 10.8 (9) 75.8 (4) 80.1 (5) 16.5 () 11.3 (3) 5.1 (1) 7.3 (1) 63.3 (5) 4.7 ().6 (1) 37.3 (5) 30.5 (3) 30.7 (1) Source: Author s self-evaluation from the Chapel Hill Expert Survey and the database of http://parties-and-elections.eu and Mair (000) (Member States in common in both of the papers) 14
What can we say about these numbers? What is going on with the anti/pro-european integration dimension? Can we claim Europe matters more? What happened to the format and mechanics of the national party systems? 15
Graph 1: Pro-European Integration Political Parties A Comparison Mair & Toygur UK SE ES PT NL IT IE 013 EL 000 DE FR FI DK BE AT 0 10 0 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 16
Graph : Anti-European Integration Political Parties A Comparison Mair & Toygur UK SE ES PT NL IT IE 013 EL 000 DE FR FI DK BE AT 0 5 10 15 0 5 30 35 40 17
Why I keep on claiming Europe matters more? Europe should matter more, otherwise there will be a representation problem in Europe. Europe affects the lives of citizens, especially the ones living in debtor countries. Are citizens aware of this? Are they electing their representatives? Conclusion 18
Methodological comparison of the Expert Survey data with Manifesto data Comparing party system indicators for all the Member States A deeper comparison between debtor and creditor countries Further analysis of electoral systems Future Research Agenda 19
ECPR Graduate Student Conference Innsbruck / Austria Comparative Politics Session (S3) http://www.ecpr.eu/events/sectionlist.aspx?eventid=13 0
THANK YOU! Critics and comments are more than welcomed! Please contact me at: ilketoygur@gmail.com ilke.toygur@uam.es ilke.toygur@eui.eu 1