UK Council for International Student Affairs Conference, University of Sussex, 1-3 July 2015 UK International Education: Global position and national prospects Simon Marginson Professor of International Higher Education UCL Institute of Education, University College London
UK International Education: Global position and national prospects Core dilemmas of international education Global trends - Participation - Research - East Asian higher education The UK s global position in research International education in UK Conclusions
CORE DILEMMAS
Abiding tensions in international education 1. Tension between free global movement and national territorial sovereignty 2. Tension between cultural-learning approach and commercial approach 3. Tension between delivering our educational tradition to foreigners, and a reciprocal engagement with them The most effective global approach is to maximize openness, engagement and learning from the other, while retaining a strong sense of one s own (changing!) agenda and identity
WORLDWIDE TRENDS: PARTICIPATION
Participation is growing at 1% a year GTER World, North America/Western Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa, 1970-2012 UNESCO data 2015
Same trend across the globe: GTER by world region, 1995/2012
Growth in participation to come World and Asian middle class 2009-2030 (billions) Source: Brookings / OECD projection in 2010 Middle class persons are defined as persons living on USD $10-100 per day, PPP
takeout Participation is increasing rapidly all over the world in future import replacement will be less important in international education. Cross-border students will retain their proportion of total enrolments and will grow rapidly. There will be more intensive competition in international education on the basis of quality/value
WORLDWIDE TRENDS: RESEARCH
Fast growing East Asian research journal papers per year, 1997-2011 Source: US National Science Foundation data, 2014
More fast growing science systems Journal papers per year, 1997-2011, US National Science Foundation data, 2014
takeout All middle income and richer nations will have their own research capacity research networks and partnerships will be increasingly essential to broad global effectiveness, including international student recruitment
EAST ASIAN HIGHER EDUCATION
Economy and population, East Asia 2013/14: United Nations, World Bank, CIA Country/system Population (millions) GDP PPP (USD $bil) GNP PPP per capita (USD $) Macau SAR 0.6 87 142,564 Singapore 5.5 425 78,744 Hong Kong SAR 7.2 382 53,203 Taiwan 23.4 926 39,600 Japan 127.1 4624 36,315 South Korea 50.4 1664 33,140 China (mainland only) 1367.6 16,158 11,904 Vietnam 89.7 475 5293 United States 319.0 15,653 53,143 United Kingdom 64.1 2320 36,197
World R&D in 2011 by region: East Asia reaches North America $s billion, OECD data 2013
China: Onwards and upwards Continuous near 10% annual growth in GDP for 35 years China is about to overtake United States GDP in PPP terms School leaver participation in tertiary education up from 4% to 35% since the early 1990s; national target 40% by 2020 In higher education, 211 Programme to create research universities, followed by 985 Programme to foster top 39 World-Class Universities. China s number of top 500 universities (ARWU) rose from 8 in 2004 to 32 in 2014 In the next decade total annual R&D investment, and annual number of research papers, will pass the United States; the national R&D target is 2.5% of GDP by 2020
Leading universities in mainland China University Journal papers 2010-2013 % of papers in top 10% of their field 2010-13 Papers in top 10% of their field 2006-09 Papers in top 10% of their field 2010-13 Papers in top 1% of their field 2010-13 U Cambridge UK 12,170 17.3 1796 2100 279 U Glasgow UK 4493 13.4 535 600 69 Tsinghua U 11,203 10.9 819 1217 124 Peking U 10,882 9.4 622 1026 84 Fudan U 9581 9.3 469 891 80 Zhejiang U 14,062 9.5 730 1182 75 Shanghai Jiao Tong U 13,034 7.8 664 1020 65 U Science & Technology 6153 11.0 503 675 64 Nanjing U 7429 8.7 402 637 59 Harbin IT 6869 8.6 344 587 56 Sun Yat-sen U 8010 8.0 315 637 47 Nankai U 4339 11.5 304 498 45 Dalian U Technology 5390 8.8 289 473 45 Huazhong U S&T 7532 8.5 228 637 44 Shandong U 7538 7.0 275 526 40
takeout East Asia/Singapore is already a larger research region than Europe, and it is the world s largest zone of educational participation partnerships into China, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore etc are now crucial for UK global effectiveness
THE UK S GLOBAL POSITION IN RESEARCH
UK in Shanghai Academic Ranking of World Universities top 500, 2014 World rank UK HEIs (total of 38 in ARWU top 500) 1-50 Cambridge (5), Oxford (9), UCL (20), Imperial (22), Manchester (38), Edinburgh (45) 51-100 King s London (59), Bristol (63) 101-150 Cardiff, LSE, Glasgow, Sheffield, Birmingham, Leeds, Liverpool, Nottingham, Southampton 151-200 East Anglia, Sussex, Warwick 201-300 Durham, Newcastle, Queen Mary, Dundee, Aberdeen, Exeter, Leicester, St Andrews, York 301-400 Lancaster, London SH&TM, Queens Belfast, Reading 401-500 Brunel, Open U, Bath, Essex, Surrey
High/low joint authorship by UK researchers (1.00 = expected rate) National Science Foundation/ Web of Science data 2014 High rates of collaboration Low rates of collaboration Ireland 2.17 South Korea 0.47 Greece 1.66 China 0.56 South Africa 1.49 Saudi Arabia 0.58 Netherlands 1.45 Japan 0.62 Denmark 1.40 Iran 0.66 Hungary 1.38 Singapore 0.67 Norway 1.36 India 0.68 New Zealand 1.30 Taiwan 0.71 Finland 1.28 Argentina 0.73 Australia 1.24 Egypt 0.74 Sweden 1.23 United States 0.77 Italy 1.22 Mexico 0.78 Poland 1.20 Canada 0.85
UK co-authorship in East Asia compared to other English speaking countries 2011 1.00 = average rate of collaboration for the countries concerned National Science Foundation data 2014 UK USA Canada Australia China 0.56 1.10 0.74 1.11 South Korea 0.47 1.25 0.54 0.54 Taiwan 0.71 1.22 0.88 1.14 Singapore 0.67 0.74 0.45 1.48
European research generates s for Country UK R&D in higher education as a %of GDP 2012 Foreign source income as % of research income Ireland 0.36 21.4 United Kingdom 0.44 19.8 Austria 0.72 16.2 Netherlands 0.62 12.3 Switzerland 0.83 12.1 Sweden (2011 for foreign income) 0.89 11.1 Italy 0.36 9.5 Finland 0.74 8.8 France 0.47 7.6 Denmark 0.95 7.2 Spain 0.35 6.6 Germany 0.51 4.3 EU (28 Countries) 0.47 9.7 United States 0.39 3.8 Eurostat data 2015
takeout In terms of collaboration, UK has a problem in East Asia, the most dynamic global region for higher education at present. UK is in danger of being left behind by other English-speaking and European countries
INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION IN UK
Students enrolled outside their country of citizenship, millions, 1975-2012 OECD data, 2014
4.5 million foreign tertiary students, 2012: OECD data on shares of world market
UK offshore international enrolments
Full-time international EU and non-eu students, UK 1981-82 to 2013-14 Higher Education Statistics Agency UK 350,000 300,000 250,000 Number of students 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Academic year
International students in USA, 2002-03 to 2013-14 IIE Open Doors data 2015
UK: Enrolment from non-eu countries, 2010-11 & 2013-14 HESA data 2015
USA: International student enrolment, 2010-11 & 2013-14 IIE Open Doors data 2015
International students in higher education, Australia, 1994-2014 Australian Education International data
Some problems in UK policy and regulation Inclusion of international students in net migration targets, plus potential for radical reductions in net migration Cost of visas (USD $520 in UK, $360 USA, $124 Canada) Complaints of slow visa processing Interviews of non-eu students to establish student integrity Over-dependence on HEIs to regulate students, including regular surveillance and reporting in relation to non-eu students Yet new Minister Jo Johnson has announced that the Government wants to expand net earnings from education exports from 18 billion in 2012 to 30 billion in 2020
Work rights: A crunch issue Restrictions on work rights during study, and inconsistent regulation (ceilings of 10 hrs FE/ 20 hrs HE) Two-year work visas scrapped in 2012 but Australia and Canada still offer them; USA encourages graduate migration especially in STEM Graduates must now find work at 24,000 p.a., in their field, within four months Teresa May has threatened to require all graduates to apply for work from outside the country Graduates are crucial to the economy, e.g. PhDs in STEM South Asian students often depend on graduate work to repay debts incurred for tuition and living costs while studying
HEPI survey of student attitudes Higher Education Policy Institute, June 2015 More than three-quarters of all students think studying alongside students from other countries is good preparation for work, but over 90% of EU and non-eu students 26% of all students say international students require more assistance from lecturers, 44% disagree with this 25% of all students think that non English speakers slow down classes, 47% disagree with this 34% think that including international students in the classroom lowers the quality of academic discussion 30% of all students disagree that shared classrooms enable students to improve their foreign language skills
takeout The door is only half open at present. We don t fully engage with international students, and make life too difficult for them. In volume, UK is marking time in international education while other English-speaking countries lift market share The future of our higher education sector cannot be decided by an intemperate, ill-defined and ill-informed debate on immigration University of Cambridge VC Leszek Borysiewicz, 2015
CONCLUSIONS
UK International Education: Global position and national prospects Rapid growth in global mobility is certain; the only question is where the mobile students go As ever competition is for good students, not just volume Research performance continues to hold up the global reputation of the whole UK higher education system Weak research collaboration in East Asia is a problem Negative environment for non-eu students (visas, postgraduate work rights) undermines supply and demand Difficult to increase exports by two thirds in this