THE QUARTERLY REPORT At a Glance The PGI Quarterly Report assesses countries that have experienced a changing threat environment in the past three months and provides a forecast for those exposed to changing security or business risks in the next quarter. The report is structured by region, analysing trends in Africa, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Europe, Asia, and the Americas. Content is produced by regional specialists from our inhouse Intelligence department. Within this report our analysts utilise the PGI Risk Portal to provide both a qualitative and quantitative assessment. Diagrams and maps are placed throughout the report to provide further insight into the written analysis. Countries are given numerical risk scores for both overall threat levels and within the 11 security and risk categories listed below. Regulatory Environment International Relations Fraud & Corruption Crime Environment Kidnap Civil Unrest Political Violence Medical Infrastructure Maritime The report positions each featured country on one of two lists depending on the threat climate, either on the Watch List or within the Ratings Change list. Ratings Change: An assessment of a change in the quantitative risk score given to a country in the past three months. Watch List: Upcoming events or trends that threaten to contribute to a changing threat rating within a country during the next quarter. The following pages are taken from this quarter s report to demonstrate a small example of what you receive. There are different options are available, as reports can be purchased individually or as a discounted package. Ratings WatchChange List Iraq Civil Unrest Southern Iraq has seen near daily anti-government protests inspired by a range of grievances, including corruption and public services, since July, some of which have turned violent. A sustained spillover of unrest to other parts of the country or prolonged disruption to critical economic infrastructure would warrant an increase in Iraq s civil unrest rating. Protesters have demonstrated both the intent and ability to block roads and temporarily disrupt critical infrastructure including Najaf airport and Umm Qasr port. Repeated demonstrations near southern oil fields have yet to affect production but any interruption could threaten government revenues and discourage future foreign investment. Unrest inspired by the southern protest movement has manifested outside the south, including in Baghdad, but has since dissipated. There is precedent for localised protests to spread to other parts of the country and the grievances driving the unrest are widely shared. However, at present, the unrest is driven by a mix of groups and actors, and greater coordination will likely be necessary to mobilise sustained demonstrations outside the south. Figure 7: Southern Iraq Incidents of civil unrest. Source: PGI Risk Portal The protests have already had a significant political impact and come at a sensitive period following dispute elections in May. Shi a cleric Moqtada al-sadr, whose bloc won the most seats in the recent polls, withdrew his support for US-backed Haider al-abadi to remain prime minister over his handling of the protests. The protests have also seen attacks on locations affiliated with powerful Shi a militias, prompting paramilitary groups to warn of retaliation and underscoring the potential for an escalation of violence that could draw in militias, as well as powerful tribal actors that have warned security forces against using excessive force against protesters. PGI Risk Portal Quarterly Report October 2018 26 Watch List Argentina Civil Unrest Regulatory Environment Argentina s civil unrest and regulatory environment remain on the watchlist to worsen as political and economic drivers have led to increased uncertainty and unrest ahead of next year s presidential elections. Local prosecutors opened an investigation into former president and current senator Cristina Kirchner in early August over reports construction companies paid at least USD 160 mn in bribes to secure public contracts during her presidency. Kirchner already faces several corruption charges, and the latest claims will seriously impede her chances of running in presidential elections in October 2019. The scandal has also severely damaged Kirchner s Citizen's Unity Party, Argentina s main opposition party, and with President Mauricio Macri s popularity considerably weakened by his support for unpopular austerity measures, the potential for an anti-establishment presidential candidate to emerge increases. The scandal also further undermined investor confidence, weakening prospects for the construction sector, one of few areas of growth. Investors concern over the political and economic situation has contributed to a severe weakening of the Argentinian peso against the US dollar and forced the central bank to raise interest rates to 60 percent, sharply increasing consumer prices. Discontent over austerity and the economy especially rising prices is high and the government s decision on 29 August to ask the IMF to expedite disbursement of a USD 50 bn loan caused widespread disruptive protests and strikes. Nationwide strikes, especially in Buenos Aires and Argentina s main industrial corridor in Rosario, have halted operations in the country s main grain ports, affecting production in key industries. The decline in economic output is forecast to continue, which, alongside rising living costs and corruption scandals, will likely fuel further unrest in the coming quarter. Consumer Prices vs Interest Rates Inflation Interest Rates 70 60 60 50 28 1.75 28 2.42 30 30 28 2.35 2.73 22.77 2.8 3.74 3.1 0 Figure 18: Consumer prices and interest rates in Argentina. Source: Argentina s central bank PGI Risk Portal Quarterly Report October 2018 2018 PGI - Protection Group International Ltd. 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PGI Q4 Quarterly Report October 2018 Tel: +44 (0) 207 887 2699 Email: clientservices@pgitl.com Visit: www.pgitl.com
Contents Introduction 3 Executive Summary 4 Key Dates 6 Africa Snapshot 6 Watch List Ratings Change Burkina Faso 10 Burkina Faso 7 Cameroon 11 Ethiopia, Eritea 8 Chad 12 Sudan 9 Congo 13 Democratic Republic of Congo 14 Nigeria 15 Sierra Leone 16 South Sudan 17 Zimbabwe 18 Middle East and North Africa Snapshot 19 Watch List Ratings Change Algeria 21 Bahrain 20 Iraq 22 Iran 23 Lebanon 24 Libya 25 Syria 26 Tunisia 27 Yemen 28 Europe Snapshot 29 Watch List Ratings Change Russia 30 Russia 31 Sweden 32 Turkey 33 United Kingdom 34 Asia Snapshot 35 Watch List Ratings Change Bangladesh 37 China 36 Cambodia 38 Malaysia 39 Pakistan Philippines 41 Americas Snapshot 42 Watch List Ratings Change Argentina 43 Brazil 44 Guatemala 45 Mexico 46 Methodology 47 PGI Risk Portal Quarterly Report October 2018 2
Introduction The PGI Quarterly Report assesses countries that have experienced a changing threat environment in the past three months and provides a forecast for those exposed to changing security or business risks in the next quarter. The report is structured by region, and analyses trends. Content is produced by regional specialists from the PGI Intelligence department. The report covers: Threat Changes: An assessment of a change in the quantitative risk score given to a country in the past quarter. Watch List: Current or forecast trends or upcoming events that could change the threat environment within a country during the next quarter. PGI Risk Portal Quarterly Report October 2018 4
* below is an extract of the Executive Summary Executive Summary This report details five threat rating changes that our Geopolitical Risk team has identified over the past quarter. More than thirty themes feature on our watch list, and the report provides a summary of key dates to be aware of in the next three months. Changing international relations were a key feature of the last quarter. Ethiopia and Eritrea made swift and unprecedented progress in restoring long ruptured ties after decades of hostilities, resulting in an upgrade to ratings for both countries. The sudden normalisation of relations, driven in part by Ethiopia s reformist Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, could reshape regional trade and eventually help to ease Eritrea s international isolation. On the Korean peninsula, the future of negotiations between Pyongyang and both Washington and Seoul remains uncertain. Despite ongoing talks, tangible progress on denuclearisation has stalled and it remains unclear whether the US and North Korea will be able to agree to the concessions necessary to advance the diplomatic process. Russia s relations with the West are forecast to deteriorate further as Moscow signals it will continue aggressive policies that have strained relations, even with traditional partners Greece and Israel. The Russian economy remains vulnerable to further Western sanctions, which could, in their most extreme form, significantly disrupt trade with the US and hit key energy projects such as Nord Stream 2. In several countries, major political changes are expected to worsen the regulatory environment. In Mexico, the recently agreed trade deal with the US is likely to increase the cost of local production, and the incoming leftist president Obrador has signalled he may seek to reverse some of his predecessor s pro-business policies, including liberalisation of the energy sector. PGI Risk Portal Quarterly Report October 2018 5
* below is an example of a country profile taken from page 43 of the Quarterly China Ratings Change Regulatory worsen ❼ to ❽ China s regulatory environment threat rating has increased after the previous quarter saw the US and China impose tariffs on respective goods. The trade war between the two began in early July and after three rounds of tariffs about half of all Chinese imports to the US are subject to new duties. US President Donald Trump has threatened to put duties on almost all Chinese goods imported into the US, amounting to USD 500 bn worth of imports annually, unless Beijing agrees to changes to intellectual property practices, industrial subsidy programmes and tariff structures. The imposition of additional tariffs by the US could prompt the Chinese government to respond with a number of different measures. If Washington imposes more tariffs on Chinese goods, Beijing could devalue its currency to boost exports. A protracted trade dispute between the two countries will likely see the volume of goods shipped between the two countries decrease significantly. In addition, Beijing and Washington could use customs checks to impose a costly slowdown on the import of respective goods in the form of a nontariff barrier. However, measures that target US companies in China, for instance barring US companies from the benefits of efforts to open China s financial and healthcare sectors, will have a negative impact on China s economy as trade with foreign companies contributes to economic growth. While it is possible that Washington and Beijing could reach a compromise that averts an escalation in the trade dispute, the likelihood of a resolution remains low, especially with China s resolve to respond to US moves with corresponding measures. To receive access to the full report please contact us for further information and pricing: Email: riskanalysis@pgitl.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 887 2699 PGI Risk Portal Quarterly Report October 2018 43