Bush Loses Ground on Terrorism Amid Concerns about the Iraq War

ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: IRAQ & THE ELECTION 6/20/04 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 5 p.m. Monday, June 21, 2004 Bush Loses Ground on Terrorism Amid Concerns about the Iraq War Amid rising disenchantment with the war in Iraq, George W. Bush has lost significant ground on the issue on which he s staked his presidency: Fighting terrorism. For the first time in ABC News/Washington Post polls, more than half of Americans, 52 percent, say the Iraq war was not worth fighting. Seven in 10 call U.S. casualties there unacceptable, a new high. And there s been a steady slide in belief that the war has enhanced long-term U.S. security; 51 percent now say so, down 11 points this year. Bush, moreover, has weakened in his once-strongest area. Approval of his handling of the U.S. campaign against terrorism has fallen to 50 percent, its lowest yet down eight points in the last month and 29 points below its immediate postwar peak. In a hazardous turn of fortune for Bush, John Kerry now runs evenly with him in trust to handle terrorism; Bush had led by 13 points on this issue a month ago, and by 21 points the month before. Approve Bush's Job Handling the Campaign Against Terrorism ABC News/Washington Post polls 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Disapprove 20% 10% 0% 12/19/2001 3/10/2002 5/19/2002 7/28/2002 9/26/2002 12/15/2002 1/27/2003 2/9/2003 9/7/2003 10/13/2003 12/21/2003 2/11/2004 4/18/2004 6/20/2004

While Kerry s pressing hard on an issue Bush once owned, the president has not entirely relinquished his advantage on terrorism. On a personal level, the public by a 14-point margin picks him over Kerry to keep the nation safer and more secure. And Kerry may be vulnerable on specifics; only four in 10 say he has a clear plan on terrorism, while Bush does better. But Kerry is scoring against Bush elsewhere as well, running ahead in trust to handle five of nine issues tested in this poll, from taxes to education to health care; Bush doesn t lead significantly on any of them. And personally, while Americans broadly see Bush as more consistent, they see Kerry as more honest and trustworthy, by a 13-point margin, and more in touch with their problems, by 20 points. Evaluating Bush s overall job performance, 47 percent of Americans now approve while 51 percent disapprove, inching over half for the first time in ABC/Post polls. In head-tohead matchups among registered voters, Kerry has a slight four-point lead over Bush when Ralph Nader is included, and a larger eight-point lead with Nader out of the contest. With life-and-death issues such as Iraq and terrorism as a backdrop, and the economy a continued concern, interest in the presidential contest is unusually high. More than threequarters of Americans are following it closely, a third very closely. By contrast, at this time in 2000, fewer than half (49 percent) were closely following the Bush-Gore contest, only 13 percent very closely. Now June 00 Closely following the election 78% 49% IRAQ IMPACT While time ultimately will tell, at this point it s hard to see Iraq as anything but a net negative politically for the Bush administration. In addition to increasingly negative reaction to the level of casualties, and essentially split decisions on whether the war was worth fighting or improved U.S. security, other assessments have worsened as well. Seventy-six percent now say the war has damaged the United States image in the rest of the world; that s 13 points more than last summer. Sixty-three percent say it s caused long-term harm to U.S. relations with countries that opposed the war, up 12 points. And just four in 10 say it s improved long-term stability in the Mideast, down eight points. (In a more positive assessment, 65 percent think the war has improved the lives of the Iraqi people.) War with Iraq has: Now July 03 Change Damaged U.S. image 76% 63% +13 Caused long-term damage to U.S. relations with France, Germany 63 51 +12 Improved U.S. security 51 62-11 Contributed to Mideast peace 42 50-8 Improved Iraqis lives 65 72-7

Yes Has the War Contributed to the Long-Term Security of the U.S.? ABC News/Washington Post polls 80% 70% 60% 50% No 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 7/10/03 12/21/03 1/18/04 2/11/04 3/7/04 4/18/04 5/23/04 6/20/04 IRAQ/HANDOVER Given such views, the public seems eager to put Iraq back into Iraqis hands. An overwhelming 82 percent approve of the transfer of power to an interim government June 30 but many see it as an insufficient exercise. More than half think the United States will continue to hold the real power in Iraq, even though three-quarters would prefer to see real power shift to the Iraqis. Iraq United States Who will hold real power after June 30? 40% 53 Who should hold real power? 77 21 Indeed the public splits evenly on who should have final say on the presence of U.S. forces in Iraq the United States or the new Iraqi government. And majorities say the Iraqis should have final say on a variety of other fronts running Iraq s oil industry, managing its economy, administering its non-u.s. foreign aid and determining what s ultimately done with Saddam Hussein. (For the time being, though, Americans by 2-1 say the United States should keep physical custody of the former Iraqi president.) There are just two matters, by contrast, in which majorities say the United States should retain final say in Iraq: the activities (as opposed to the presence) of U.S. forces; and the administration of American aid projects. Who should have final say? Iraq United States Administering U.S. aid 31% 64

Activities of U.S. forces 35 61 Presence of U.S. forces 48 49 What happens to Saddam 54 38 Administering non-u.s. aid 63 31 Running Iraq s oil industry 78 20 Managing Iraq s economy 84 14 Level of Casualties: Acceptable? ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls 80% Acceptable 70% 60% 50% Unacceptable 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 3/27/03 4/3/03 4/9/03 6/22/03 7/10/03 8/11/03 9/7/03 9/13/03 10/13/03 10/29/03 11/16/03 12/21/03 1/18/04 4/18/04 6/20/04 Others results show mixed perceptions of progress for the Bush administration: With a new interim government now in place and the formal handover imminent, half of Americans say the United States has made significant progress toward establishing a democratic government in Iraq. While hardly rousing, that s up by 12 points from last month. The country divides similarly, 51-48 percent, on U.S. progress toward restoring civil order. IRAQ/AL QAEDA Most Americans continue to suspect that Iraq, under Saddam, did provide support to the Al Qaeda terrorist network a position under debate since the 9/11 commission last week reported that there was evidence of contacts, but not of an operational relationship, between the two. It should be noted, though, that the majority s suspicion of an Iraq-Al Qaeda link is just that a suspicion, not an assertion or assumption of fact. In this poll, 62 percent think Iraq provided direct support to Al Qaeda, nearly what it was (68 percent) in January 2003, before the war. But just 23 percent say there s solid evidence of this support; 38 percent say instead that it s their suspicion only.

As on other 50/50 nation issues, the public divides about evenly on whether the Bush administration intentionally misled the American public about Iraq/Al Qaeda links (48 percent say so) or told the public simply what it believed to be true (50 percent). 90% 80% Did Iraq Provide Direct Support to Al Qaeda? ABC News/Washington Post poll 70% 60% 50% 62% 23% Solid Evidence 40% 33% 30% 20% 10% 38% Suspicion only 0% Yes No TERRORISM The murder Friday of Paul Johnson, an American working in Saudi Arabia, can t have helped public views of the terrorism situation; indeed Bush s approval rating on terrorism was better in interviews Thursday night, before the slaying, than subsequently. At the same time, Bush s trouble on this central issue has been brewing; he had 70 percent approval on terrorism in mid-december, 64 percent in February and 58 percent in May, en route to his 50 percent now. It s a problem for Bush because since Sept. 11, 2001, handling the war on terrorism has been his strongest rating by far the wellspring of his support. In this poll, by contrast, it s no better than his middling ratings in several areas. And he does worse in a variety of others including health care (57 percent disapprove), the deficit (56 percent disapprove, albeit better than the 65 percent disapproval in March), international affairs and Iraq. Bush s performance Approve Disapprove Overall job 47% 51 Education 51 45 Terrorism 50 48 Economy 46 53 Iraq 44 55 Int l affairs 43 55

Taxes 42 54 Rx drugs 40 50 Budget deficit 39 56 Health care 39 57 HISTORY Bush s position is an uncomfortable one in historical terms. In all but one of six cases since 1948, incumbent presidents whose approval ratings were below 50 percent in June or July of an election year either lost (Bush s father, Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford) or didn t run (Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman in 1952). The exception was Truman in 1948. Still, at 47 percent, Bush s approval rating is higher than others in the group closest to Ford, who lost narrowly. Bush s father s approval rating in June 1992, by contrast, was 12 points lower. 100% 90% George H. W. Bush 80% 70% 60% George W. Bush 50% Career Job Approval: George W. Bush and George H. W. Bush ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls 40% 30% 20% 10% 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 0% Re-election-Year Approval Ratings President Year Approve Disapprove Bush 6/04 47% 51% Clinton 6/96 56 39 Bush 6/92 35 62 Reagan 7/84 54 41 Carter 6/80 32 56 Ford 6/76 45 40 Nixon 6/72 59 30 LBJ 6/68 43 45

LBJ 6/64 74 14 Ike 7/56 69 21 Truman 6/52 32 58 Truman 6/48 39 47 (Gallup polls, Carter and previous) BUSH vs KERRY As noted above, Kerry leads Bush in trust to handle a range of specific issues; moreover, Kerry s standing on some of these have improved. He leads Bush by 13 points in trust to handle taxes; it was a six-point Bush lead in April. Kerry leads Bush by 12 points in trust to handle prescription drug benefits, up from three points in April. And Kerry has a 10-point lead on education; it was Bush +3 in April. The most notable change, again, is in trust to handle terrorism Bush +21 in April, Bush +13 in May, Kerry +1 (i.e., a dead heat) now, a shift that occurred almost entirely among women, particularly independents. But the change on education, among others, is important as well; neutralizing the Democrats on this issue was crucial to Bush s 2000 campaign. 80% 70% Bush Kerry Trust to Handle the Issues ABC News/Washington Post polls 60% 58% 50% 40% 50% 50% 51% 52% 50% 47% 48% 48% 45% 44% 45% 43% 42% 38% 40% 53% 37% 30% 20% 10% 0% Iraq Terrorism Budget Economy Int'l affairs Education Rx benefits Taxes Health care Trust to Handle: Bush Kerry Diff.* Iraq 50 45 Bush +5 Terrorism 47 48 Kerry +1 Budget deficit 44 48 Kerry +4 Economy 45 50 Kerry +5 Int l affairs 43 51 Kerry +8 Education 42 52 Kerry +10 Rx drugs 38 50 Kerry +12 Taxes 40 53 Kerry +13

Health care 37 58 Kerry +21 *+8 needed for significance at 95% confidence MOST IMPORTANT Americans divide on which issue will be most important in their vote for president: Twenty-six percent say the economy, 19 percent Iraq, 18 percent terrorism, with the rest divided among other choices. There are sharp divisions within these issue groups. People who say Iraq is their most important issue pick Kerry over Bush in trust to handle it by nearly a 2-1 margin, 60 to 32 percent. Those who say it s terrorism pick Bush to handle that issue by a similar margin, 67 to 31 percent. Among economy voters, Kerry is preferred, by 21 points. Trust to handle it Top issue Bush Kerry Terrorism 67% 31 Iraq 32 60 Economy 38 59 ECONOMY The economy is one area in which the headwinds against Bush may be easing. In March, Bush s disapproval for handling it was higher, 59 percent, and Kerry (riding his primary bounce) had a bigger lead in trust to handle it. While just 45 percent now say the economy s in good shape, it was worse, 39 percent, in March, and worse still, 30 percent, last fall. At the same time, using Ronald Reagan s famous formulation, 45 percent of Americans say most people are worse off than when Bush took office, while just 17 percent say most are better off. This was a bit more negative last fall, but it s still not at all good. To the extent that Bush may try to claim the Reagan mantle, Kerry might well respond with the better-off question that same president enshrined in the political lexicon. PLANS Fifty-five percent say Bush does have a clear plan for dealing with terrorism, but fewer, ranging from 42 to 48 percent, say he has clear plans in other important areas: handling Iraq, the economy and health care. Majorities see Kerry as having clear plans for two issues on this list health care and the economy. But just 42 percent say he has a clear plan on either terrorism or Iraq 13 points worse than Bush on the former, six points on the latter. Does he have a clear plan? Yes, Bush Yes, Kerry Terrorism 55% 42% Iraq 48 42 Economy 47 55 Healthy care 42 60

ATTRIBUTES In addition to issues, assessments of candidates personal attributes are an essential piece of any election puzzle. Here Americans are differentiating between Bush and Kerry in striking ways. Bush has a 21-point lead over Kerry as someone who takes a position and sticks with it, and, as noted, a 14-point lead as someone who will make the country safer and more secure. Bush also leads by eight points as the stronger leader, and by 12 as the one best trusted in a crisis. The two are rated about evenly in values and standing up to special interest groups; while, as noted, Kerry leads by 13 points on honesty and trustworthiness, and by 20 points on empathy someone who understands the problems of people like you. As much as the issues, winning allegiance on these attributes is the ground on which the 2004 election will be fought. 90% 80% 70% Applies more to Bush Applies more to Kerry Candidate Attributes ABC News/Washington Post poll 60% 50% 40% 57% 36% 54% 53% 40% 41% 51% 43% 48% 46% 45% 43% 39% 52% 36% 56% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sticks with position Will make country safer Can be trusted in crisis Strong leader Shares your values Stands up to special interests Honest & trustworthy Understands your problems OPTIMISM Part of winning that allegiance relies on the candidates personal outlook, and the extent to which it jibes with the public s. Despite the country s problems, optimism prevails in several areas. Thinking about the year ahead, 62 percent are optimistic about the way things are going in this country (albeit down seven points from January); 66 percent are optimistic about the country s ability to defend itself against terrorism (albeit down nine points); 64 percent are optimistic about the economy (level). Fewer, 52 percent, are optimistic about the situation in Iraq; it was 58 percent in January.

A challenge for Kerry is in finding a way to confront Bush on these issues, and portray the problems they pose, without sounding a note of dour pessimism that s out of touch with the broader public s point of view. Bush, for his part, has made a point lately of stressing his optimistic outlook, and contrasting it with Kerry s. VOTE PREFERENCE These issues and attributes will play out in vote preferences all summer and fall; what matters more at this point is the substance of the debate, not its eventual outcome which news polls this far from the event don t even try to project. Among other factors, vote preferences are influenced by, and in turn influence, political party allegiance. Among registered voters in this poll, 38 percent describe themselves as Democrats, 30 percent as Republicans and 28 percent as independents (it s a 35-29-30 percent split among all Americans, not just those who say they re registered to vote). Those divisions are almost precisely the same as they were in the last ABC/Post poll, in late May (among registered voters, 37-29-28 percent). In that poll, Bush and Kerry were even in the three-way race (46-46-4 percent, compared with 44-48-6 percent here); and it was 47-49 percent Bush-Kerry in the two-way race, compared with 45-53 percent here. These slight shifts in preference have not occurred in the overall partisan makeup of the sample, but among groups. Women, in particular, have moved toward Kerry, as have, perhaps most crucially, independents the true swing voters in election politics. METHODOLOGY This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone June 17-20, 2004, among a random national sample of 1,201 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa. Analysis by Gary Langer. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com at http://abcnews.com/pollvault.html. Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212) 456-4934, or Lisa Finkel, (212) 456-6190. Full results follow. *= less than 0.5 percent 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? ---------Approve--------- --------Disapprove------- No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin. 6/20/04 47 30 17 51 13 39 1 5/23/04 47 31 17 50 14 36 3 4/18/04 51 33 18 47 13 34 1 3/7/04 50 32 18 48 12 36 2 2/11/04 50 30 21 47 14 34 2 1/18/04 58 35 24 40 9 30 2 12/21/03 59 39 21 38 15 23 3 12/14/03 57 37 20 39 10 29 5

12/7/03 53 32 21 40 13 27 7 11/16/03 57 34 23 39 11 28 4 10/29/03 56 30 26 42 13 29 2 10/13/03 53 33 20 43 13 29 4 9/30/03 54 34 20 44 15 29 2 9/13/03 58 35 23 40 14 27 2 9/7/03 56 34 22 41 13 28 4 8/11/03 59 37 22 37 14 23 4 7/10/03 59 35 24 38 13 25 3 6/22/03 68 45 23 29 11 18 4 4/30/03 71 50 22 26 17 9 3 4/16/03 74 52 22 23 9 14 3 4/9/03 77 58 19 20 6 14 4 4/3/03 71 54 16 25 7 19 4 3/23/03 68 NA NA 27 NA NA 4 3/20/03 67 NA NA 28 NA NA 5 3/2/03 62 38 23 35 13 22 4 2/23/03 60 NA NA 34 NA NA 6 2/9/03 64 42 21 34 14 20 3 2/1/03 62 41 21 34 13 22 4 1/28/03 62 43 19 36 13 23 2 1/27/03 59 39 21 37 15 22 4 1/20/03 59 36 23 38 16 22 2 12/15/02 66 37 28 32 12 20 2 11/4/02 LV 67 45 23 31 12 20 1 11/3/02 LV 67 45 22 32 12 20 1 11/2/02 LV 67 47 20 32 9 23 1 10/27/02 All 67 39 28 29 13 16 4 10/27/02 LV 68 47 21 30 14 16 3 9/26/02 67 42 25 30 12 18 3 9/8/02 71 42 28 27 12 15 3 7/28/02 69 39 31 28 14 14 3 7/15/02 72 42 31 25 12 13 2 6/17/02 74 42 32 22 9 13 4 6/9/02 77 41 36 20 9 11 3 5/19/02 76 48 28 22 8 13 3 4/21/02 78 47 31 20 9 10 2 3/28/02 79 49 30 18 8 10 3 3/10/02 82 52 30 16 9 7 2 1/27/02 83 56 27 14 7 7 3 12/19/01 86 64 22 12 6 6 2 11/27/01 89 69 21 9 4 5 1 11/6/01 89 65 24 9 5 4 2 10/9/01 92 76 16 6 3 3 1 9/27/01 90 70 20 6 3 3 4 9/13/01 86 63 23 12 5 6 2 9/9/01 55 26 29 41 20 22 3 8/12/01 61 28 33 31 14 17 8 7/30/01 59 28 30 38 17 22 3 6/3/01 55 27 28 40 18 22 6 4/22/01 63 33 30 32 16 16 5 3/25/01 58 NA NA 33 NA NA 8 2/25/01 55 NA NA 23 NA NA 22 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling (ITEM)? 6/20/04 - Summary Table* Approve Disapprove No op. a. The economy 46 53 1 b. The situation in Iraq 44 55 2 c. Education 51 45 5

d. The federal budget deficit 39 56 5 e. Prescription drug benefits for the elderly 40 50 11 f. The US campaign against terrorism 50 48 2 g. Health care 39 57 4 h. Taxes 42 54 4 i. International affairs 43 55 2 * Half sample asked items a-e, other half asked items f-i. a. The economy Approve Disapprove No opinion 6/20/04 46 53 1 5/23/04 44 54 2 4/18/04 44 54 2 3/7/04 39 59 1 2/11/04 44 54 2 1/18/04 51 47 2 12/21/03 51 44 5 11/16/03 48 49 3 10/29/03 45 53 2 10/13/03 45 52 2 9/13/03 42 56 3 9/7/03 44 51 5 8/11/03 45 51 5 7/10/03 47 49 4 4/30/03 52 45 3 2/9/03 47 49 4 2/1/03 44 52 4 1/28/03 46 49 4 1/27/03 47 47 5 1/20/03 43 53 4 1/5/03 50 43 7 12/15/02 50 46 4 11/4/02 LV 53 45 2 11/3/02 LV 52 46 2 11/2/02 LV 55 43 2 10/27/02 51 43 6 10/27/02 LV 53 44 3 9/26/02 51 47 3 9/8/02 57 40 4 7/28/02 57 39 4 7/15/02 58 38 3 4/21/02 64 33 3 1/27/02 62 34 4 12/19/01 67 27 6 11/6/01 72 23 5 9/9/01 48 48 4 7/30/01 52 45 3 6/3/01 53 41 6 4/22/01 55 38 7 3/25/01 50 42 8 b. The situation in Iraq Approve Disapprove No opinion 6/20/04 44 55 2 5/23/04 40 58 2 4/18/04 45 54 1 3/7/04 46 53 1 2/11/04 47 52 1 1/18/04 55 42 2 12/21/03 60 39 2

12/14/03 58 38 4 11/16/03 48 48 4 10/29/03 47 51 2 10/13/03 51 47 2 9/29/03 50 47 3 9/13/03 52 46 2 9/7/03 49 47 4 8/24/03 56 37 7 8/11/03 56 41 3 7/10/03 58 41 2 6/22/03 67 30 2 4/30/03 75 22 2 Compare to: The situation with Iraq and Saddam Hussein 3/27/03 69 26 5 3/23/03 71 26 3 3/20/03 65 29 5 3/17/03 64 29 7 3/9/03 55 38 8 2/23/03 55 39 6 2/9/03 61 37 2 2/5/03 61 32 7 2/1/03 61 35 3 1/28/03 58 38 4 1/27/03 57 40 3 1/20/03 50 46 4 12/15/02 58 37 5 11/4/02 LV 56 40 4 11/3/02 LV 57 40 4 11/2/02 LV 56 41 3 10/27/02 57 38 5 9/26/02 58 39 3 9/14/02 65 31 4 8/29/02 52 36 12 c. Education Approve Disapprove No opinion 6/20/04 51 45 5 4/18/04 51 43 6 3/7/04 50 45 5 2/11/04 47 45 8 1/18/04 55 37 9 12/21/03 47 37 15 10/29/03 55 38 7 9/13/03 56 39 6 4/30/03 59 34 7 12/15/02 62 30 8 9/26/02 61 32 7 7/15/02 62 31 6 1/27/02 71 21 8 9/9/01 61 32 7 7/30/01 63 31 5 6/3/01 57 35 8 4/22/01 60 28 12 d. The federal budget deficit Approve Disapprove No opinion 6/20/04 39 56 5 4/18/04 34 60 6 3/7/04 30 65 5 1/18/04 35 58 7

12/21/03 37 52 10 10/29/03 32 61 7 Compare to: The federal budget 9/13/03 38 57 4 8/11/03 41 50 9 4/30/03 43 50 6 2/9/03 45 45 10 2/1/03 47 46 8 1/20/03 43 47 10 7/15/02 50 42 8 1/27/02 59 30 12 9/9/01 46 48 6 7/30/01 53 42 5 e. Prescription drug benefits for the elderly Approve Disapprove No opinion 6/20/04 40 50 11 4/18/04 38 46 15 3/7/04 41 49 9 1/18/04 39 49 12 12/21/03 36 46 18 10/29/03 36 46 18 10/13/03 34 43 22 9/13/03 35 54 11 4/30/03 44 40 17 2/1/03 46 35 19 f. The US campaign against terrorism Approve Disapprove No opinion 6/20/04 50 48 2 5/23/04 58 39 4 4/18/04 63 35 2 3/7/04 63 34 3 2/11/04 64 34 2 1/18/04 66 33 2 12/21/03 70 28 2 10/29/03 63 35 2 10/13/03 66 30 4 9/13/03 70 27 3 9/7/03 67 28 5 4/30/03 79 19 2 2/9/03 74 23 4 2/1/03 75 21 3 1/27/03 72 26 2 1/20/03 71 25 4 12/15/02 79 20 1 11/4/02 LV 76 22 1 11/3/02 LV 77 22 3 11/2/02 LV 78 21 2 10/27/02 All 74 23 4 10/27/02 LV 78 20 2 9/26/02 70 28 2 9/8/02 74 24 2 7/28/02 81 17 2 7/15/02 83 15 2 5/19/02* 79 19 3 4/21/02* 81 18 2 3/10/02* 88 10 2 1/27/02 88 10 2 12/19/01* 89 9 2

10/15/01* 92 5 3 *Asked very/somewhat follow-up g. Health care Approve Disapprove No opinion 6/20/04 39 57 4 Compare to: The cost, availability and coverage of health insurance 4/18/04 33 61 5 3/7/04 32 62 6 2/11/04 32 62 6 1/18/04 37 55 8 12/21/03 34 56 10 10/29/03 28 63 9 10/13/03 30 60 10 9/13/03 32 61 7 4/30/03 34 57 9 1/28/03 40 47 13 1/20/03 36 51 13 12/15/02 33 58 9 h. Taxes Approve Disapprove No opinion 6/20/04 42 54 4 4/18/04 48 49 3 3/7/04 50 47 3 1/18/04 45 51 4 10/29/03 41 53 6 9/13/03 48 48 4 8/11/03 49 46 5 4/30/03 50 46 4 2/1/03 51 43 7 1/20/03 50 45 5 12/15/02 51 44 5 i. International affairs Approve Disapprove No opinion 6/20/04 43 55 2 10/29/03 50 43 7 9/13/03 53 43 4 7/15/02 67 28 5 4/21/02 71 25 4 6/3/01 58 33 9 4/22/01 62 31 7 3/25/01 56 31 13 3. How closely are you following the 2004 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No closely closely closely at all opin. 6/20/04 33 45 15 7 * 5/23/04 33 41 17 9 * 4/18/04 30 45 16 9 0 3/7/04 33 42 18 7 * 2/11/04 30 45 15 10 * 1/18/04 22 44 22 13 * 10/29/03 15 39 30 15 0

9/13/03 16 40 27 17 * Call for trend. 4/4a. If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for (George W. Bush, the Republican), (John Kerry, the Democrat), or Ralph Nader, the independent? Which one are you leaning toward? Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters: Other Neither Would No Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op. 6/20/04 44 48 6 * 1 * 1 5/23/04 46 46 4 * 1 1 1 4/18/04 48 43 6 * 2 1 * 3/7/04 44 48 3 * 1 2 2 Net Leaned Vote, General Population: Other Neither Would No Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op. 6/20/04 42 48 7 * 1 1 1 5/23/04 45 44 6 * 1 2 1 4/18/04 47 42 7 * 2 1 * 3/7/04 42 47 5 * 1 3 2 7. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely? Definitely ---Chance change mind---- No vote NET Good Unlikely opin. 6/20/04 All 71 28 13 15 1 Bush 78 21 9 13 * Kerry 72 27 13 14 1 Call for 2000 trend. 5/5a. (ASKED OF NADER VOTERS AND DON T KNOWS) If Nader does not run or is not on the ballot for whom would you vote (Bush) or (Kerry)? Which one are you leaning toward? Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters: Write in Other Neither Would No Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) not vote op. 6/20/04 45 53 0 * 1 1 * 5/23/04 47 49 * * 1 1 1 4/18/04 49 48 * * 2 1 * Net Leaned Vote, General Population: Write in Other Neither Would No Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) not vote op. 6/20/04 44 53 0 * 1 1 * 5/23/04 46 48 * * 2 3 1 4/18/04 49 47 * * 2 1 *

6a. (ASKED OF LEANED BUSH SUPPORTERS) Is your vote more for Bush or more against Kerry? For Bush Against Kerry No opinion 6/20/04 83 16 1 5/23/04 77 21 1 3/7/04 86 13 2 6b. (ASKED OF LEANED KERRY SUPPORTERS) Is your vote more for Kerry or more against Bush? For Kerry Against Bush No opinion 6/20/04 44 55 1 5/23/04 38 61 1 3/7/04 38 61 1 8. Who do you trust to do a better job handling (ITEM), (Bush) or (Kerry)? 6/20/04 - Summary Table* Both Neither No Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op. a. The economy 45 50 1 3 1 b. The situation in Iraq 50 45 * 4 1 c. Education 42 52 1 2 2 d. The federal budget deficit 44 48 1 5 3 e. Prescription drug benefits for the elderly 38 50 1 7 4 f. The US campaign against terrorism 47 48 1 3 1 g. Health care 37 58 * 4 2 h. Taxes 40 53 0 4 2 i. International affairs 43 51 * 3 2 * Half sample asked items a-e, other half asked items f-i. Trend where available: a. The economy Both Neither No Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin. 6/20/04 45 50 1 3 1 5/23/04 43 48 * 5 3 4/18/04 47 47 1 4 1 3/7/04 41 53 * 4 2 2/11/04 41 49 1 4 5 b. The situation in Iraq Both Neither No Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin. 6/20/04 50 45 * 4 1 5/23/04 48 42 * 6 3 4/18/04 52 41 * 4 2 3/7/04 47 48 1 3 2 2/11/04 48 41 1 6 5 c. Education Both Neither No Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin. 6/20/04 42 52 1 2 2

4/18/04 47 44 1 6 2 3/7/04 40 52 1 3 4 2/11/04 40 49 1 6 5 d. The federal budget deficit Both Neither No Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin. 6/20/04 44 48 1 5 3 4/18/04 45 46 1 6 2 3/7/04 38 53 2 5 3 e. Prescription drug benefits for the elderly Both Neither No Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin. 6/20/04 38 50 1 7 4 4/18/04 42 45 2 7 4 3/7/04 41 50 1 4 5 f. The U.S. campaign against terrorism Both Neither No Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin. 6/20/04 47 48 1 3 1 5/23/04 52 39 1 4 4 4/18/04 58 37 1 3 1 3/7/04 57 36 2 2 3 2/11/04 53 37 1 4 5 g. Health care Both Neither No Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin. 6/20/04 37 58 * 4 2 Compare to: The cost, availability, and coverage of health insurance 4/18/04 42 48 1 6 3 3/7/04 36 56 0 5 2 2/11/04 34 52 1 7 6 h. Taxes Both Neither No Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin. 6/20/04 40 53 0 4 2 4/18/04 49 43 * 6 2 3/7/04 43 51 1 4 2 i. No trend. 9. Of the following list, which one of these will be the single most important issue in your vote for president this year: (The U.S. campaign against terrorism), (the war in Iraq), (the economy and jobs), (education), (Health care), (Medicare and prescription drugs), (Social Security) or something else? Econ./ Educ- Health Medicare/ Soc. No Terrorism Iraq jobs ation care drugs Sec. Other op. 6/20/04 18 19 26 9 9 5 4 8 1 5/23/04 14 18 32 8 8 7 5 6 1 4/18/04 22 23 26 8 5 4 4 6 1

3/7/04 17 10 36 8 6 7 7 8 1 12/21/03* 14 9 37 12 8 6 7 6 2 *"Which one of the these will be " 10. Please tell me whether the following statement applies more to (Bush) or more to (Kerry). 6/20/04 Summary Table Both Neither No Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op. a. He is honest and trustworthy 39 52 1 6 1 b. He understands the problems of people like you 36 56 1 6 2 c. He is a strong leader 51 43 2 3 2 d. He takes a position and sticks with it 57 36 1 5 1 e. He will make the country safer and more secure 54 40 1 3 2 f. He can be trusted in a crisis 53 41 1 2 2 g. He shares your values 46 48 1 4 1 h. He stands up to special interest groups 43 45 1 6 5 11. Do you think (Bush/Kerry) does or does not have a clear plan for (ITEM)? 6/20/04 Summary Table -------Bush------ ------Kerry------ Does Does No Does Does No not op. not op. a. handling the situation in Iraq 48 50 1 42 52 6 b. handling the economy 47 51 2 55 40 5 c. handling terrorism 55 43 1 42 53 5 d. handling health care 42 54 4 60 34 7 12. Do you think Bush's views on most issues are too (liberal) for you, too (conservative) for you, or just about right? Too Too About No liberal conservative right opin. 6/20/04 14 38 46 2 3/7/04 14 33 49 4 12/21/03 14 29 52 5 6/3/01 15 32 50 4 4/22/01 10 31 55 3 9/6/00 RV 12 31 51 6 7/23/00 RV 12 29 52 7 7/23/00 12 28 52 8 3/11/00 12 28 52 8 2/27/00 10 33 51 5 2/24/00 12 33 43 12 2/6/00 12 30 49 8 9/2/99 10 20 58 13 3/14/99 7 20 53 20

13. Do you think Kerry's views on most issues are too (liberal) for you, too (conservative) for you, or just about right? Too Too About No liberal conservative right opin. 6/20/04 34 10 51 5 3/7/04 33 6 52 8 14. Thinking about his candidacy for president so far, how enthusiastic are you about (Kerry/Bush) - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all? ----Enthusiastic--- -----Not Enthusiastic----- No NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opin. Kerry 6/20/04 47 17 30 53 19 33 0 Bush 6/20/04 42 21 21 58 18 39 * Call for 2000 trend. 15. Generally speaking, would you say you favor (smaller government with fewer services), or (larger government with more services)? Smaller govt. Larger govt. No fewer services more services opinion 6/20/04 50 46 4 Call for trend. 16. All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? ----Worth fighting---- ----Not worth fighting--- No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly op. 6/20/04 47 32 14 52 13 39 2 5/23/04 48 35 13 50 13 37 1 5/6/04 49 NA NA 47 NA NA 5 4/18/04 51 47 2 3/7/04 52 44 3 2/11/04 48 50 2 1/18/04 56 41 3 12/21/03 59 39 2 12/14/03 53 42 5 11/16/03 52 44 4 10/29/03 54 44 2 10/13/03 54 44 2 9/13/03 61 37 2 9/7/03 54 42 4 8/24/03 57 37 5 8/11/03 61 35 4 7/10/03 57 40 3 6/22/03 64 33 3 4/30/03 70 " " 27 " " 4 Gulf War: 2/2/92* 66 NA NA 32 NA NA 2 7/28/91 67 30 3 6/2/91 70 26 3 3/4/91 86 " " 13 " " 1 *2/2/92 and previous: "the Persian Gulf war"; 3/4/91: "this war

17. Again thinking about the goals versus the costs of the war, so far in your opinion has there been an acceptable or unacceptable number of U.S. military casualties in Iraq? Acceptable Unacceptable No opinion 6/20/04 29 71 1 4/18/04 33 65 2 1/18/04 34 62 4 12/21/03 37 60 4 11/16/03 33 64 3 10/29/03 35 62 3 10/13/03 37 60 3 9/13/03 43 55 2 9/7/03 38 57 5 8/11/03 42 53 5 7/10/03 44 52 3 6/22/03 51 44 5 4/9/03 66 28 6 4/3/03 62 32 5 3/27/03 58 34 9 18. Do you think the war with Iraq has or has not (ITEM)? 6/20/04 Summary Table* ---------Contributed--------- Has No NET Great deal Somewhat not op. a. contributed to the longterm security of the United States 51 28 23 46 2 b. caused long-term damage to US relations with countries that opposed the war, such as France and Germany 63 38 25 35 2 c. Contributed to long-term peace and stability in the Mideast 42 20 23 56 2 d. Helped to improve the lives of the Iraqi people 65 28 37 33 1 e. Damaged the United States' image in the rest of the world 76 46 31 23 1 *Full sample asked item a, half sample asked items b,c, other half sample asked items d,e. Trend a. Contributed to the long-term security of the United States ----------Contributed---------- Has No NET Great deal Somewhat not opin. 6/20/04 51 28 23 46 2 5/23/04 54 30 24 43 3 4/18/04 57 33 24 40 3 3/7/04 57 29 29 40 3 2/11/04 58 32 26 38 4 1/18/04 59 34 25 38 3 12/21/03 62 34 29 34 4

7/10/03* 62 33 29 35 3 *"did or did not" b. Caused long-term damage to US relations with countries that opposed the war, such as France and Germany ----------Contributed---------- Has No NET Great deal Somewhat not opin. 6/20/04 63 38 25 35 2 7/10/03* 51 24 27 45 5 *"did or did not" c. Contributed to long-term peace and stability in the Mideast? ----------Contributed---------- Has No NET Great deal Somewhat not opin. 6/20/04 42 20 23 56 2 7/10/03* 50 20 31 45 5 *"did or did not" d. Helped to improve the lives of the Iraqi people ----------Contributed---------- Has No NET Great deal Somewhat not opin. 6/20/04 65 28 37 33 1 7/10/03* 72 41 31 25 3 *"did or did not" e. Damaged the United States' image in the rest of the world ----------Contributed---------- Has No NET Great deal Somewhat not opin. 6/20/04 76 46 31 23 1 7/10/03* 63 30 34 34 3 *"did or did not" 19. Do you think (the United States should keep its military forces in Iraq until civil order is restored there, even if that means continued U.S. military casualties); or do you think (the United States should withdraw its military forces from Iraq in order to avoid further U.S. military casualties, even if that means civil order is not restored there)? Keep forces Withdraw forces No opinion 6/20/04 57 42 1 5/23/04 58 40 2 4/18/04 66 33 1 11/16/03 62 34 4 10/29/03 58 38 3 9/13/03 65 32 3 8/24/03 69 27 4 7/10/03 72 26 2 20. (HALF SAMPLE) Do you think the United States is or is not making significant progress toward establishing a democratic government in Iraq? Is making Is not making No significant progress significant progress opinion 6/20/04 50 48 3 5/23/04 38 57 5

20a. (OTHER HALF) Do you think the United States is or is not making significant progress toward restoring civil order in Iraq? Is making Is not making No significant progress significant progress opinion 6/20/04 51 48 1 21. As you may know, the United States is scheduled to transfer power to an interim government in Iraq on June 30 th. Do you support or oppose this transfer of power? Support Oppose No opinion 6/20/04 82 16 2 22. Who do you think will hold the real power in Iraq after June 30th, (the new Iraqi government), or (the United States)? New Iraqi Both Neither/ No government United States (vol.) other (vol.) opin. 6/20/04 40 53 2 2 3 Compare to: Do you think the transfer on June 30th will be (a real change of power in Iraq), or do you think it'll be (a symbolic transfer with no real change of power)? Real change of power Symbolic transfer No opinion 4/18/04 34 58 8 23. Who do you think SHOULD hold the real power in Iraq after June 30th, (the new Iraqi government), or (the United States)? New Iraqi Both Neither/ No government United States (vol.) other (vol.) opin. 6/20/04 77 21 1 1 1 24. For each item I name, please tell me who you think should have final say about it (the new Iraqi government), or the (United States). 6/20/04 Summary Table New Iraqi United Both Neither/ No Government States (vol.) other (vol.) op. a. The presence of U.S. military forces in Iraq 48 49 1 * 1 b. Administration of U.S. funded programs to help rebuild Iraq 31 64 3 1 2 c. Running Iraq s oil industry 78 20 1 * 1 d. The activities of U.S. military forces in Iraq 35 61 2 1 1 e. Administration of aid from other countries 63 31 1 3 3 f. Managing Iraq s economy 84 14 1 * 1 g. What happens to Saddam Hussein 54 38 4 2 2 24a. For the time being, do you think the United States should (keep custody of Saddam Hussein) or (turn Saddam Hussein over to the new Iraqi government)? Keep custody of Turn him over to Turn him over to No Saddam Hussein Iraqi government someone else (vol.) op.

6/20/04 65 33 1 2 25a. Before the war, do you think Iraq did or did not provide direct support to the Al Qaeda terrorist group? IF YES: (Is that your suspicion only), or (do you think there's been solid evidence of that)? -----------Provided Support------------ Iraq did not No NET Suspicion only Solid evidence provide support op. 6/20/04 62 38 23 33 6 Compare to: Do you think Iraq has or has not provided direct support to the Al Qaeda terrorist group? Provided Not provided No support support opinion 1/28/03 68 17 15 25b. Do you think the Bush administration (intentionally misled the American public) about possible links between Iraq and the Al Qaeda (Al KY-da) terrorist group, or do you think the administration (told the American public what it believed to be true) about this? Intentionally misled Told the American public No the American public what it believed to be true opinion 6/20/04 48 50 2 25. On another subject, would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good or poor? ----Excellent/Good----- -----Not so good/poor----- No NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor op. 6/20/04 45 4 41 55 38 17 * 4/18/04 43 4 39 57 39 18 * 3/7/04 39 2 37 60 38 22 1 1/18/04 42 3 39 58 42 16 0 12/21/03 42 4 39 57 41 16 1 10/29/03 33 1 32 67 45 23 * 9/13/03 30 2 27 70 45 25 * 8/11/03 32 2 30 68 43 25 * 4/30/03 35 1 34 64 46 19 * 2/9/03 28 1 27 72 49 23 * 1/20/03 25 1 25 74 48 26 1 12/15/02 35 1 33 65 44 21 1 Call for trend. 26. Would you say most Americans are better off financially than they were in 2001 when Bush became president, not as well off, or in about the same shape as then financially? Better Not as The No off well off same opinion 6/20/04 17 45 37 1 4/18/04 18 43 37 2 3/7/04 17 43 38 1 2/11/04 14 47 38 1 1/18/04 13 42 43 2 12/21/03 17 40 41 2 10/29/03 9 49 41 1 9/13/03 9 52 38 1

4/30/03 10 48 42 1 George H. W. Bush 8/9/92 6 61 31 1 10/21/91 7 48 41 4 3/4/91 7 35 56 2 1/16/89 33 26 38 3 27. Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel (optimistic) or (pessimistic) about (ITEM)? a. the way things are going in this country Optimistic Pessimistic No opinion 6/20/04 62 36 2 1/14/03 69 29 2 b. the situation in Iraq Optimistic Pessimistic No opinion 6/20/04 52 45 3 5/23/04 55 43 2 1/18/04* 58 39 2 *"Thinking about the coming year" c. the state of the national economy Optimistic Pessimistic No opinion 6/20/04 64 34 2 1/14/03 63 35 2 d. The country's ability to defend itself against terrorist attacks Optimistic Pessimistic No opinion 6/20/04 66 31 3 1/14/03 75 23 3 28-29 See separate release. ***END**