ETHIOPIA HUMANITARIAN CRISES ANALYSIS 2017 February 2017 Each year, Sida conducts a humanitarian allocation exercise in which a large part of its humanitarian budget is allocated to emergencies worldwide. This allocation takes place in the beginning of the year as to ensure predictability for humanitarian organizations and to allow for best possible operational planning. In an effort to truly adhere to the humanitarian principles, Sida bases its allocation decisions on a number of objective indicators and parameters of which the most important are related to the number of affected people, vulnerability of affected people and level of funding in previous years. One of the indicators is also related to forgotten crises in order to ensure sufficient funding to low profile crises. Besides this initial allocation, another part of the humanitarian budget is set aside as an emergency reserve for sudden onset emergencies and deteriorating humanitarian situations. This reserve allows Sida to quickly allocate funding to any humanitarian situation throughout the year, including additional funding to Ethiopia. For 2017, Ethiopia has been allocated an initial 90 million SEK in January 2017. Close monitoring of the situation in Ethiopia will continue throughout the year to determine whether additional funds should be allocated. 1. CRISIS OVERVIEW Ethiopia is Africa's second most populous country, with approximately 93 million persons. Its economy has been growing with an average annual GDP growth of over 10% the past decade. Still, widespread poverty, recurrent droughts and floods and inter-communal violence threaten to worsen the humanitarian situation in Ethiopia. Moreover, increasing restrictions of political rights and the lack of local participation in the decision making are other obstacles to the development of the country. Freedom House ranks Ethiopia as not free and Foreign Policy considers the country as the 24 th (of 177) most failed state according to their index. Ethiopia, as the other countries in eastern Africa is trying to cope with the effects from the 2015 droughts, below-average rains in 2016 in addition to displacement of persons following armed conflict in the region, further aggravating the situation. More than two million refugees in the countries of the Horn of Africa (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Uganda), mainly from Somalia but also from South Sudan, Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea and more recently from Yemen have fled the consequences of armed conflicts or recurrent droughts coupled with other situations of armed violence, insecurity and lack of livelihood opportunities to find refuge or seek asylum in particularly Uganda (almost 900,000 persons), Ethiopia (780,000) and Kenya (500,000). Ethiopia is risk prone and INFORM ranks it as the 15 th most risk prone country globally in 2016. The country is regularly exposed to droughts, floods, insect infestations and epidemics. Between 1980 and 2010, a yearly average of 1.8 million people was affected by disasters. Epidemiological outbreaks are regularly reported (diarrheal diseases, measles, malaria, meningitis, Kala Azar). Natural Disaster Following failed belg rains December 2015, Ethiopia experienced delayed rains in early 2016 which allowed for good food production in the highlands, while flooding disrupted livelihoods (failed crops, livestock deaths etc.) of several thousand persons in the lowlands. Between the end of 2015 and the beginning of 2016, up to 280,000 are reported to have been displaced due to drought. The majority of these were in the Afar and Somali regions of Ethiopia. During 2016 the international humanitarian response amounted to at least one billion USD. The Ethiopian government contributed with 735 musd to humanitarian and other activities beyond the initial scope of the coordinated humanitarian response. Amongst other, the combined humanitarian response managed to reach almost ten million persons with food aid and 2.7 million persons had access to trucked water during the peak of the drought. 1
The Ethiopian government and The UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) anticipates that in 2017 approximately 5.6 million persons will require emergency food assistance, 9.2 million persons will be in need of safe drinking water and 2.4 million households will need livestock support. These needs do not include recovery support for persons affected from the previous year s drought and floods, and it is in addition to the needs of the refugee populations hosted in the country. Conflict Out of a total of approximately 640,000 internally displaced persons, around 370,000 450,000 persons have been displaced due to conflict, mainly in the Somali, Oromia and Afar regions (north east and south east of the country) by the beginning of 2016. The majority of the recent internal displacement is mainly reported to be due to natural disasters such as drought, floods and volcanic activities. Recurrent and severe drought has also contributed to competition and clashes between communities under highly stressed conditions over access to scarce water and pasture. Armed conflict in the region, in particular in South Sudan and Somalia has caused almost 790,000 refugees to seek protection in Ethiopia. The Ethiopian government maintains an open attitude to the reception of refugees. - Approx. 280,000 refugees from South Sudan (mainly in Gambella region and the Jewi, Tierkidi, Kule and Pugnido camps). - Approx. 255,000 refugees from Somalia (mainly in Dolo Ado and Jijiga in the Somali region). - Approx. 150,000 refugees from Eritrea. - Approx. 38,000 refugees from Sudan. - Approx. 13,000 refugees from Yemen In 2016 tensions between the government and the Oromo population over unequal gains to the country s development programs and violent protests against the government in the Amhara region have resulted in many deaths. This kind of political violence is not new and has resulted in hundreds of casualties annually since 1994, but the conflict has during 2016 moved from the peripheral areas of the Somali and Gambella regions closer to the central parts of the country. 1.1 Geographical areas and affected population In 2017 the populations in most urgent need of humanitarian assistance are: 1) Children 59 months or younger, pregnant and lactating women, female-headed households and displaced populations (refugees and internally displaced persons) and 2) persons residing in the southern and eastern parts of Ethiopia, as well as other pockets similar to the crisis areas of 2015/2016, namely Somali Region (all), Southern and eastern Oromia Region, parts of Afar Region, and Gambella (in particular refugee camps). The outcome of the rains in 2017 is key (coupled with a comprehensive geopolitical analysis) to determine the possibilities for the different communities to begin recovering from several years of drought. In any case the population is vulnerable and humanitarian assistance is expected even in a best case scenario. 1.2 Critical Assumptions, risks and threats The drought situation demonstrates similarities to the drought that hit the horn of Africa in 2011, and Sida expects that the situation especially in the Somali and Afar regions will persist or worsen in 2017. The drought situation in southern Oromia is also expected to persist. The Ethiopian communities have not yet fully recovered from the drought of 2015/2016 and are facing irregular and/or underperforming rains. The population is prone to risks and the region experiences recurring environmental shocks that are likely to intensify in the coming years due to the current climate change. Despite social protection programs that have been put in place, the supporting institutions for building resilience for future crises are currently insufficient (and not sufficiently inclusive to prevent the most vulnerable persons to suffer from humanitarian crises). For instance, humanitarian actors in Ethiopia expect an additional 300 000 cases of children less than 59 months old with severe acute malnutrition in 2017. Transparency International ranks Ethiopia as number 103 out of 168 countries, with a corruption perception index score of 33 (out of 100) in 2015. The country thus ranks among the 40% most corrupt countries in the world. 2
The armed conflict in South Sudan and Somalia are expected to result in a maintained refugee community and probable influx of additional refugees during 2017 and the coming years. International pressure from the EU to keep refugees and migrants in African nations, such as Ethiopia, will probably also persist in the coming years. 1.3 Strategic objectives identified in the Humanitarian Response Plan The international response in Ethiopia is organised within the framework of a government-led process, the Humanitarian Requirement Document (HRD). It compiles humanitarian needs in the country on a yearly basis with a mid-year review. The 2017 HRD is being prepared around the same three strategic objectives as in 2016: - Save lives and reduce morbidity due to drought and acute food insecurity - Protect and restore livelihoods - Prepare for and respond to other humanitarian shocks flooding, conflict and displacement The response in the HRD will focus mainly on the southern and eastern parts of the country. It does not include the refugee population or persons that are in need of recovery assistance from the previous years drought situations. It focuses on 1) water trucking, 2) emergency livestock interventions and 3) emergency food distributions and nutrition programs: - Agriculture and livestock support (2.4 million households) - Education/school feeding (4 million children) - Shelter and NFI (350 000 persons) - Emergency food assistance (5.6 million persons) - Nutrition (300 000 treated SAM cases of children under 5 years old, and 1.2 million children and PLW treated for MAM) - Health interventions to address epidemics and communicable diseases (4.4 million persons) - Protection for displaced populations, especially children (2 million persons) - WASH, access to safe drinking water (9.2 million persons). The total financial needs identified for 2017 amounts to 895 musd (as opposed to 1.4 billion USD in 2016). 2. IN COUNTRY HUMANITARIAN CAPACITIES 2.1 National and local capacities and constraints The Ethiopian government has traditionally been reluctant to acknowledge the full extent of humanitarian needs in the country. It is however one of the main contributors to the HRD responses in 2016 (contributing 735 million USD, or 45 %, to the response). Access issues related to the Government s strong control mechanisms sometimes provide challenges to provide humanitarian assistance strictly according to a needs based analysis, in particular in politically sensitive areas such as the Somali and Afar regions, and for 2017 perhaps also in Amhara region. The overall domestic humanitarian coordination is led by the Government's National Disaster Risk Management Coordination Commission (NDRMCC, formerly Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector, DRMFSS). NDRMCC leads federal and regional level Disaster Risk Management Technical Working Groups (DRMTWG, co-chaired with OCHA) across the country and hosts a series of specialised task forces that work with the clusters/sectors. The Ethiopian government is strengthening the DRMTWG with OCHA s support. The UN agencies, NGOs and the Ethiopian Red Cross are active participants, including at the regional and sub-regional levels. The Ethiopian civil society: - In 2014 over 3,000 civil society organizations were registered in Ethiopia. - The Ethiopian Red Cross and 13 Ethiopian NGO s are conducting and supporting humanitarian operations according to the 2016 HRD. - National NGOs are limited in receiving funds from the UN administered humanitarian funds which makes it an exception among the country-based pooled funds (CBPF) globally. 3
- In 2016, OCHA reports that 80 projects (14 run by UN, and 66 by NGO) were funded through the Ethiopian Humanitarian Fund (EHF). The majority of EHF funding went to the Oromia and Amhara regions (approx. 45 % or 35 million USD). 2.2 International operational capacities and constraints The Ethiopia Humanitarian Country Team (EHCT) is the principal humanitarian policy- and decision making body. Its role is to provide guidance on major strategic issues related to humanitarian action in the country, including developing a strategic vision, setting strategic objectives and priorities and developing strategic plans. The EHCT is chaired by the Humanitarian Coordinator and is composed of the UN agencies working in the humanitarian sphere, other international humanitarian organizations, four international NGO representatives nominated by the Humanitarian INGO group, one national NGO coordinator (CRDA) and three donors nominated by the Development Assistance Group; Department for International Development of the UK (DfID), European Commission Directorate General for Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection (ECHO) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Additionally, at the regional level Ethiopia is part of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). The cluster approach was rolled out in Ethiopia in early 2007 and has been established at a federal level, the humanitarian community sought to strengthen support for the DRMFSS, and key line ministries, including the ministry of agriculture, health and water resources. The clusters work at the technical level and aims to support government-led sector task forces. Due to the extent of the Ethiopian government s ownership of the humanitarian coordination, OCHA is considered a valued intermediary between the government and the humanitarian community. OCHA convenes the inter-cluster coordination mechanism to provide a forum for the respective cluster leads to discuss issues of mutual concern and ensure that cross-cutting issues are followed up. The inter-cluster coordination mechanism also has a role in making recommendations of key issues for EHCT consideration and of carrying out activities requested by the EHCT. UN-OCHA is approaching a critical point in its financial crisis management. It is unclear at the moment of writing what the budget cuts will entail. UNHCR has the overall coordination role in the refugee response which will be further enhanced through the established Refugee Task Forces, co-chaired by the Government and UNHCR, both in Addis Ababa and in the field. These fora continue to serve as key information platforms for updates on the refugee situations, active interaction and exchanges among various actors, including UN agencies, NGOs and the Government, as well as the diplomatic and donor community. Sector coordination will also continue, through functional technical groups such as the Child Protection Working Group. The operational international humanitarian presence has in 2016 consisted of around ten UN agencies, the ICRC and IFRC and some 60-70 INGOs. 2.3 International and Regional assistance Ethiopia is one of the world s top-ten recipients of Official Development Assistance (ODA), receiving approximately 3.5 billion USD annually (as compared to the 2016 humanitarian appeal of 1.4 billion USD). In terms of humanitarian funding, the US, ECHO, Germany and the Emergency Response Fund managed by OCHA have been the largest donors to the Ethiopian response in 2016 (562, 180, 81 and 81 million USD respectively). Sweden has been the 8 th largest donor. There is no indication of major changes in this donor pattern for 2017. In response to the drought situation in 2016 donors increased their funding, and global funding has exceeded funding from many of the previous years (comparable to, but also higher than in, 2011). Some extraordinary donations were made, for instance to Catholic Relief Services that received over 211 million USD from USAID for the Joint Emergency Operations Program (JEOP) to assist 2.6 million draught affected persons across 5 regions of the country. 4
Other main recipients of assistance among non-governmental organizations have been the International Rescue Committee (IRC), GOAL, Save the Children, the International Medical Corps (IMC) and Action contre la faim (ACF). In 2015, with a funding of 60 million USD, the country-based pooled fund, the Ethiopian Humanitarian Fund (EHF) is one of the main sources of humanitarian funding to non-food support (15-20 %). ODSG has also found that the EHF has functioned relatively fast and accepts a higher degree of risk than other humanitarian actors or funding tools, although its reach to national NGO has been limited. Among the UN agencies, WFP received the majority of funds (359 million USD or 32%), followed by UNHCR (119 million USD), UNICEF (102 million USD), IOM (16 million USD) and FAO (6 million USD) amongst others. Despite the high financing to WFP operations the agency has had an acute funding shortage (seemingly due to its fundraising strategy) during the year and Sida supported exceptionally with additional funds for its humanitarian response (70 million SEK in 2015 and an additional 70 million SEK in 2016). 3. SIDAs HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE PLAN 3.1. The role of Sida In 2016 Sida increased the initial allocation for humanitarian assistance to Ethiopia with 147 % to 106 msek. The focus of Sida s allocation in 2016 was the support to drought related interventions as well as a continued support to the refugee responses in the country (South Sudan). In addition, a second tranche of 70 msek to WFP was disbursed from the development budget for Ethiopia. Additional funding was added throughout 2016 through Sida s different response mechanisms. Sida acknowledges that certain regions of Ethiopia are in perpetual chronic crises, and would be an ideal context to launch humanitarian multi-year programs that not only responds to current humanitarian needs but also address underlying causes and subsequently would reduce humanitarian suffering. Sida s strategic partners have not presented such programs for 2017 and is recommended to consider such programs for 2018 and beyond. Sida s ability to link humanitarian assistance interventions with sustainable development programs is crucial in the Ethiopian context. During 2016 Sida s strategy for the development cooperation with Ethiopia 2016-2020 has begun to be implemented, and involves contributions amounting to 220 million SEK annually for 2017 and 2018. The strategy has three overarching expected results: 1. A better environment, limited climate impact and greater resilience to environmental impact, climate change and natural disasters 2. Strengthened democracy and gender equality, and greater respect for human rights 3. Better opportunities and tools to enable poor people to improve their living conditions These results offer several opportunities to build effective programs to increase resilience to, and reduce the negative impacts of recurring crises. Sida s work to operationalize these opportunities during the year has already started for instance through the Systems analysis to support the operationalization of the Swedish development cooperation strategy in Ethiopia. Another opportune starting point is a stronger emphasis on risk and vulnerability indicators for determining the priority for development cooperation contributions. In the first quarter of 2017 the Swedish embassy in Ethiopia will develop a specific action plan for resilience and linking development cooperation with humanitarian assistance, which provides the next step to jointly define goals and expected results of clear resilience projects (as opposed to humanitarian-plus contributions). A fundamental direction for Sida s development cooperation contributions aiming to increase Ethiopian communities resilience to humanitarian crises (or, in other words, reduce future humanitarian caseloads, or the risk of death and human suffering) would focus on integrating the risk and vulnerability criteria targeting the most vulnerable persons. More specifically Sida s development contributions would as a priority: - Target women, children, female and/or single headed households and displaced and/or violence affected persons. - Target the Afar, Somali and southern Oromia regions as well as areas with displaced persons 5
- Link the human rights aspects to human protection for all persons in Ethiopian territory. This includes improved access for women and children, ethnic minorities and/or neglected populations to education, health care and judicial services (in the above-mentioned areas and for above-mentioned target groups). - Reduce health and nutrition related mortality and morbidity by improving livelihood opportunities, inclusion in social security networks and preventing environmental degradation (in the abovementioned areas and for above-mentioned target groups). Cross-cutting all contributions Sida pushes its partners to ensure gender- and conflict-sensitive projects. The aim is to ensure that Sida-funded projects are adapted to the specific needs of women and men, girls and boys at any given time and that the humanitarian interventions do not contribute to conflict. 3.2. Response Priorities 2017 Sida s humanitarian contributions for 2017 focus on life-saving humanitarian needs to drought and conflict affected populations in Ethiopia, including displaced persons (refugees and IDP), in line with IHL and humanitarian principles. The priority for Sida s contributions is to improve the lives and alleviate suffering of the most vulnerable persons: children, women and female-headed households, and marginalized ethnic groups and/or nationalities. As such, and based on the analysis above, Sida s contributions prioritize: 1. Humanitarian assistance to girls, boys, women and female-headed households in marginalized communities, affected by natural and man-made disasters 2. That humanitarian assistance ensures that marginalized communities due to ethnicity or nationality are ensured protection and may have equal access to quality essential services to ensure their full health, security to life and human dignity. 3. Humanitarian assistance to displaced persons fleeing conflict, conflict-like situations and/or natural disasters. 4. Humanitarian assistance in the following regions: o Somali region o Afar region o o Southern and parts of eastern Oromia region Gambella refugee camps (Sida s allocation for South Sudanese refugees are described in the humanitarian crisis analysis for South Sudan). Cross-cutting Sida s contribution priorities is humanitarian assistance that addresses protection of women and children, especially in terms of sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV) which is an evident need in displacement and/or conflict situations. 3.3. Partners Based on the priorities described in 3.2. Sida has decided to allocate the initial funding for 2017 to the following partners (all partners coordinate activities through different platforms): OCHA plays an important role as intermediary between the humanitarian community and the government. It is a key partner that has been able to adapt its coordination function well to the political context. UNHCR carries the key coordination function for refugee programmes and, hence, Sida will support UNHCR s work in Ethiopia. Part of the support also to refugees in Ethiopia is described through the South Sudan crisis analysis document. NRC is one of the main actors to deliver assistance to displaced populations, in particular refugee communities in the country and the host communities. NRC focuses on education, WASH, shelter and food security, and makes use of opportunities to synergies between different program components such as 6
education and livelihood/food security. The programs entail resilience building components that focus on sustainable food security and livelihood activities. The Church of Sweden/Lutheran World Federation (LWF) supports refugee populations in the horn of Africa following displacement from South Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). LWF work through local partners and Sida supports its programs in Ethiopia for South Sudanese (allocation described in South Sudan crisis analysis) and Eritrean refugees. The World Food Program (WFP) is a key actor for the country-wide food assistance. Sida encourages WFP to use the Sida-funds to focus activities on child nutrition (moderate acute malnutrition), a particularly vulnerable group. WFP holds the ambition to use cash-based assistance as far as possible (40% global target). Sida will also engage in discussions with WFP and potentially other actors for long term, sustainable risk and vulnerability reducing activities (development funds). UNICEF is another key partner to support drought affected communities. Sida encourages UNICEF to use the Sida-funds for health-related activities that include nutrition programs for children under 59 months old and WASH (clean water supply, access to hygienic sanitation etc.). ICRC has a focus on protection and assistance to violence affected communities in Ethiopia, across the country. Through collaboration with the national society of the Red Cross, ICRC has good access to the different regions in the country. It is the main actor to promote the principles of humanitarian action and international humanitarian law (IHL). As Ethiopia is engaged militarily in the region, the IHL aspect has a broad impact. SMR (IAS/PMU) has developed projects for water supply in the southern Oromia region that try to come to terms with the recurring drought crisis for the affected communities. Islamic Relief Ethiopia is one of the few actors that has access to the Somali region. Following the drought of 2015/2016 Islamic Relief has implemented nutrition, WASH, NFI and food support to affected populations, included those displaced by natural disasters. The Humanitarian Relief Fund (HRF) for Ethiopia is managed by OCHA and is considered by Sida as an effective instrument to enable access to rapid financing for non-governmental organizations (NGO), especially responding to sudden on-set disasters. It is not available for Ethiopian organizations except the Ethiopian Red Cross. 7
Recommended partner for Sida support Sida s humanitarian assistance to Ethiopia in 2017 Sector/focus of work (incl. integrated or multi sectorial programming), financing modality (e.g. in-kind or cash-based) Proposed amount (MSEK) OCHA Coordination 2 UNHCR Refugee response (coordination, country-wide) 8 NRC Refugee response (country-wide) 9 CoS/LWF Refugee response (Eritrean, NE Ethiopia) 1,5 WFP Emergency food assistance, nutrition, food security (country wide, including cash-based programming) UNICEF Nutrition, WASH, health (country-wide) 15 ICRC Protection, violence affected communities (Gambella, Eritrea/Ethiopia border, Amhara, Oromia) 10 SMR (IAS/PMU) WASH (southern Oromia) 6,5 Islamic Relief Ethiopia Food security, WASH, nutrition (Somali region) 8 HRF Rapid response for NGO, multi-sector 15 15 Total: 90 MSEK In addition to the allocation above, Sida is supporting the humanitarian response for the South Sudan refugee situation in Ethiopia. The analysis behind the allocation is documented in the humanitarian crisis analysis for South Sudan. Sida s humanitarian assistance to the South Sudan refugee response in Ethiopia 2017 Recommended partner for Sida support Sector/focus of work (incl. integrated or multi sectorial programming), financing modality (e.g. in-kind or cash-based) Proposed amount (MSEK) ACF Nutrition (Gambella refugee camp) 5 CoS WASH, food security (Gambella refugee camp) 3 Total: 8 MSEK 8