ABC NEWS EXIT POLL ANALYSIS: THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 1/27/04 Behind Kerry s New Hampshire Win: Broad Base, Moderate Image, Electability A broad base on issues, a moderate image and a sense of electability powered John Kerry to a double-digit victory in the New Hampshire primary and being someone other than Howard Dean didn t hurt. Kerry did best with voters who were looking mainly for a candidate who can beat George W. Bush (he won 62 percent of them), and for someone with the right experience. But Kerry also won big in two other, larger groups: Those who viewed Dean unfavorably and those who didn t think Dean has the right temperament for the job. For Dean, once the runaway favorite in New Hampshire, the day put a coda on a stumble that accelerated after his loss in Iowa and his high-octane concession there. Among voters who decided in the days right after Iowa, 52 percent chose Kerry, just 15 percent Dean. Dean closed a bit in the last few days, ran evenly with Kerry in some groups (such as those angry with the Bush administration) and prevailed in some others, such as those looking for a candidate who stands up for what he believes, and very liberal voters (15 percent of the electorate, he won them by 11 points). Electability played a very significant role. More voters cared more about a candidate s stand on the issues than about his ability to beat George W. Bush. But a third did care more about electability and that was a very strong group for Kerry. Bigger factor in your vote: Kerry Dean Agree on the issues (57%) 29% 29 Beat Bush in November (33%) 56 14 AHEAD The next round of Feb. 3 primaries looks tricky for Dean. He trailed Kerry by 19 points among conservatives, and while a small group in New Hampshire s primary (nine percent of voters), they ve been more numerous in Oklahoma (25 percent in the 2000 primary), South Carolina (23 percent in 1992) and Delaware (15 percent in 2000). Kerry also has work ahead: Among his strongest backers in New Hampshire were Catholics a sizable 36 percent of voters, he won them by more than 2-1 over Dean, 47-19 percent. Catholics have been a smaller group in Democratic primaries in Missouri (24 percent in 2000), Oklahoma (14 percent) and fewer still in South Carolina in 1992. Better for Kerry, looking ahead, is the fact that he did notably well in New Hampshire with less-educated voters: Among those who lack a college degree, he won by 2-1, 41-20
percent vs. Dean. (Among those with postgraduate educations, it was a much closer 37-33 percent). In New Hampshire, non-college graduates accounted for 45 percent of voters; it s been a bigger group in previous Democratic primaries in Delaware (55 percent in 2000), Missouri (60 percent in 2000), South Carolina (63 percent in 1992) and Oklahoma (75 percent in 1992, the most recent available). Feb. 3 also will be the first test for all the Democratic candidates among racial minorities. One percent of New Hampshire were blacks; by contrast they accounted for 13 percent in Oklahoma in 2000, 20 percent in Delaware and Missouri alike, and 43 percent in the South Carolina primary in 1992. (In 2000 and 1996 South Carolina held uncontested caucuses.) There should be a sizable number of Hispanics voting in the Arizona primary and New Mexico caucuses, also Feb. 3, although previous data are not available. ISSUES On issues, as noted, Kerry s appeal to New Hampshire voters was much more broadly based than Dean s. Dean did his best among people who cared most about the war in Iraq, but even in this group came out just four points ahead of Kerry. Kerry, by contrast, won three issue groups, all by significant margins people who cared most about the economy, about health care or Medicare, and about education. Top issue: Kerry Dean Health care/medicare (28%) 43% 26 Economy/Jobs (22%) 48 18 War in Iraq (19%) 33 37 Education (10%) 44 23 ATTRIBUTES In terms of candidate attributes, Dean did best in the passion crowd winning among voters who mainly wanted a candidate who stands up for what he believes or who ll shake things up in Washington (though the latter group was a small one). In addition to prevailing among more pragmatic voters those looking mainly for someone who has the right experience, or who can beat Bush Kerry also did well on empathy, winning voters who wanted a candidate who cares about people like me. Top attributes Kerry Dean Stands up for what he believes (29%) 21% 47 Would shake things up in Washington (7%) 13 46 Can defeat Bush (20%) 62 10 Has the right experience (12%) 58 9 Cares about people like me (12%) 37 22 TIME OF DECISION When voters made their final decisions describes rather than explains the outcome, but it shows a telling pattern. Just over a third of voters decided in the last three days; Kerry won them by eight points. Voters who decided in the previous
week, though closer to the Iowa caucuses and Dean s concession went much more heavily for Kerry: He won half of them, Dean just 15 percent. But Kerry also won voters who decided in the last month, by a substantial margin over Dean. Dean won those who made their choice longer ago, but less broadly. Time of decision: Kerry Dean Last three days (35%) 33% 25 Last week (19%) 52 15 Last month (19%) 45 19 Before that (26%) 31 40 EDWARDS and CLARK Wesley Clark and John Edwards had different profiles in their very close race for third place. Clark did his best among voters looking for a candidate with the right experience, 12 percent of voters. He won 21 percent of them (but Kerry won 58 percent.) Edwards, for his part, got a decent chunk of the nice vote: He did his best with people looking for a positive message ; 13 percent of voters, he won 27 percent of them (Kerry, 32). And Edwards won 24 percent of those looking mainly for a candidate who cares about people like me (Kerry, 37). (In his 1998 Senate win over incumbent Republican Lauch Faircloth in North Carolina, some of Edwards' strongest support 76 percent also came from people who said he "cares about people like me.") LIEBERMAN Lieberman voters were more apt to be conservative and less apt to be critical of the Bush administration rare enough groups in New Hampshire to put him fifth. Only five percent of liberals voted for Lieberman, compared with 23 percent of conservatives. With the exception of Kerry, Lieberman was more likely than other candidates to win support from voters who approve of the Iraq war (20 percent supported him), believe the war has made America safer (21 percent), express satisfaction with the Bush Administration (22 percent) and support the Bush tax cuts (26 percent). Lieberman voters expressed much more favorable opinions of Edwards (62 percent) and Kerry (55 percent) than of Clark (41 percent) or Dean (33 percent). NOT DEAN In New Hampshire it was clearly a Kerry-Dean race, and as noted, the ABD factor Anybody But Dean worked to Kerry s advantage. But not being Dean wasn t the decisive factor: Most voters did view Dean favorably, both overall and in terms of his temperament and Kerry won nearly three in 10 of them. Does Dean have the right temperament? Kerry Dean Yes (56%) 29% 43 No (39%) 54 1 Opinion of Dean Kerry Dean
Favorable (56%) 27% 47 Unfavorable (40%) 48 1 Dean, turning the tables, won big among voters who had an unfavorable opinion of Kerry 44 percent of them voted for Dean. But they made up a smaller share of voters, 25 percent compared to Dean s unfavorable rating of 40 percent. ANGER There was plenty of anger with the Bush administration among these voters, but Dean didn t tap into it as well as he d have liked: Nearly half the voters described themselves as angry with the administration, and Dean and Kerry split them, 35-37 percent. Kerry went on to hammer Dean among less-than-angry voters. View of Bush admin.: Kerry Dean Angry (46%) 37% 35 Dissatisfied (37%) 44 20 Satisfied (14%) 32 13 IDEOLOGY The results on the anger question were reflected in ideology as well. Nearly half the voters were liberals, and Dean and Kerry ran evenly in this group. (Among very liberal voters, it was Dean by 41-30 percent). But Kerry more than came back among moderates; as big a group, they supported Kerry over Dean by better than a 2-1 margin, 43-18 percent. Kerry Dean Liberal (46%) 36% 35 Moderate (45%) 43 18 Conservative (9%) 33 14 Turnout among liberals was somewhat lower than in 2000 54 percent of voters then, 46 percent now. (That s the opposite from Iowa, where liberal turnout rose.) INDEPENDENTS There was a big turnout among self-identified independents they accounted for 48 percent of voters, compared with 41 percent in the 2000 primary. It didn t matter much: Kerry beat Dean among independents (37-23 percent) and among self-identified Democrats (41-29 percent) alike. Other nuggets: -Economic discontents were good for Kerry: Thirty-six percent said they're worse off financially than four years ago; Kerry won them by 41-27 percent over Dean. -Turnout among women was down by eight points they accounted for 54 percent of voters, down from 62 percent in 2000 (and 57 percent in 1996).
-Just over four in 10 voters were from military households; they did more for the lieutenant than for the general. Kerry won 39 percent, Dean 21 percent, Clark 15 percent. (Fifteen percent were themselves veterans; the numbers were about the same 36-22-16). -Again union endorsements didn't do much for Dean. Voters from union households accounted for 23 percent of the total; Kerry won them, 38-24 percent over Dean. And a summary of each candidate s best groups: Kerry: Size Kerry vote Can defeat Bush 20% 62% Has the right experience 12 58 More important: can defeat Bush 33 56 Dean doesn't have the right temperament 39 54 Decided in the past week 19 52 Favorable opinion of Kerry 72 51 Catholics/attend church weekly 16 49 Unfavorable opinion of Dean 40 48 Economy/jobs most important issue 22 48 Catholics 36 47 Dean: Size Dean vote Stands up for what he believes 29% 47% Favorable opinion of Dean 56 47 Would shake things up in Washington 7 46 Unfavorable opinion of Kerry 25 44 Dean has the right temperament 56 43 Very liberal 15 41 Early deciders (more than a month ago) 26 40 Unfavorable opinion of Lieberman 39 40 Favor canceling tax cuts for all Americans 32 37 Iraq war most important issue 19 37 Clark: Size Clark vote National security most important issue 7% 31% Has the right experience 12 21 Unfavorable opinion of Kerry 25 19 Go to church a few times a month 10 19 Favorable opinion of Clark 62 19 No religion 17 18 Decided in the last month 19 18 Iraq war most important issue 19 17 High school grads 15 17 Edwards: Size Edwards vote He has a positive message 13% 27% He cares about people like me 12 24 Taxes most important issue 6 19
Unfavorable opinion of Dean 40 19 Protestants who don't attend church weekly 36 18 Economy most important issue 22 17 Not worried about economy's direction (net) 9 17 Favorable opinion of Edwards 73 17 Somewhat approve of the Iraq war 19 17 Lieberman: Size Lieberman vote Strongly approve of the war in Iraq 10% Leave tax cuts entirely in place 10 29% 26 Conservatives 9 23 Protestants/attend church weekly 12 23 Satisfied with Bush administration 14 22 War made America safer 25 21 Not worried about direction of economy (net) 9 18 Condition of economy exc/good 23 17 Weekly church-goers 19 17 National security most important issue 7 17 Stands up for what he believes 29 17 METHODOLOGY This analysis is based on an exit poll of 1,848 voters in the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary. The results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points. Field work by Edison/Mitofsky for the National Election Pool. Analysis by Gary Langer, with David Morris, Dalia Sussman and Maureen Michaels.