UChicago Urban Labs Testing the effects of summer jobs and social-emotional training on violence amongst disadvantaged youth Evelyn Diaz, President, Heartland Alliance and former Commissioner, City of Chicago, Department of Family & Support Services Sara Heller, PhD, Assistant Professor of Criminology, University of Pennsylvania; Affiliate, University of Chicago Crime Lab October 26, 2015
Violence in Chicago over time E 6. Homicide Rate (per 100,000), 1965 to 2013 Current Mayor Rahm Emanuel Elected In 2013, Chicago s homicide rate was the 31 st highest rate among large U.S. cities Lowest murder rate since mid-1960s
Snapshot of violence in Chicago In 2013, 415 murders and 1,864 shootings Poor communities are disproportionately impacted 70% of all homicides occur in 20 high-poverty communities, where 31% of our city s population resides Minorities are disproportionately impacted 94% of victims and 94% offenders are minorities Youth are disproportionately impacted Youth aged 17-25 make up less than 15% of the population but 45% of murder victims More than 50% of murder offenders are aged 17-25 More known gang members than any other city Estimated 105,000-150,000 gang members More illegal guns recovered than any other city Youth aged 17-25 make up less than 15% of the population but 45% of murder victims
There is no greater priority or more urgent challenge for the City of Chicago than the safety and education of its youth. I have brought in leaders who know the value of rigorous research and understand that good intentions are not good enough. Results matter. Real world impact is what we are after.
Mayor Rahm Emanuel is committed to using data and rigorous research to solve the city s most pressing problems, making public school, law enforcement, and social program data available to researchers.
Opportunity: Chicago s youth programs $36 million annual budget for after-school programs and summer employment for 36,000 youth But are we really impacting youth education, violence and long-term employment outcomes? One Summer Chicago Program Annually 24,000 summer jobs for 16-24 year olds In 2012, we created an experimental program called One Summer Chicago Plus to test whether summer jobs can reduce violence
Researcher/Practitioner Partnership Practitioners have a question How do we solve this social problem? Does our program work? Which program works better? Who responds most? What next?
How to measure a program effect? Compare outcomes of participants with some other group of non-participants Often, people compare those who show up to those who don t Those who show up might already be doing better (or worse)
Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) Decision about who gets program is a coin flip Creates treatment and control groups that are on average identical Any difference between the groups HAS to be because of the program
Is this fair? When programs are over-subscribed, you are already making decisions about who does/doesn t get served - Lottery is a fair way to allocate slots among eligible applicants When there is real uncertainty about which course of action is better, or whether program dollars are worth it - RCT means you don t have to guess anymore creates rigorous evidence
Example question: How can we reduce violence?
Nothing stops a bullet like a job Lots of reasons a summer job could prevent violence - Provides income, information on value of schooling, employer connections - Develops work and soft skills and self-efficacy - Incapacitation (keeps kids off the streets) But the theory is not clear cut, and there is little good evidence
2012 One Summer Chicago Plus Run by Chicago Department of Family & Support Services and non-profit partners Eight-week summer program - Gov t and non-profit minimum-wage jobs (25 hrs/week) - Adult job mentor - 1-day job readiness training, 1 meal/day, bus passes - For ½ of youth, replace 2 job hrs/day with cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) curriculum keep the same wage
Evaluation design: lottery 1,634 applicants enter lottery: 364 jobs only 366 jobs + SEL 904 control (no extra services) We track in administrative data (arrests, school, employment)
Study population N = 1,634 Demographics Mean Treatment/Control Difference Age 16.8-0.05 Black 94.9% -0.19% Hispanic 3.3% -0.24% Free/Reduced Lunch 92.2% -0.03% Crime Ever Arrested 20.4% 1.73% Academics 2011-12 Days Attended 136.8 0.70 GPA 2.3 0.004 Neighborhoods % Unemployed 19.0% -3.21% Employment (n = 1,279) Any Earnings in Prior Year 6.8% -2.24%
Average Number of Arrests per Youth OSC+ reduces violence over next 16 months 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 Violent Crime Arrests 0.091 43% 0.051 0.02 0 Control Mean Treatment Mean
Violence decline mostly post-program (far longer than the job itself) Heller (2014)
What did we learn? 8 weeks can decrease violence By a lot! And for not much money Jobs + mentor were enough Addition of CBT worked just as well City got early reports on results Shaped future program and research We later published results in Science
The results made national news
What happened next? Attention from researchers, media, other U.S. cities, as well as international interest. Mayor Emanuel empowered to seek further funding. Secured $10 million USD from private philanthropists to expand to serve: 2,000 disadvantaged youth in 2015 3,000 youth in 2016 4,000 youth in 2017
Influence on programming The following summer New research question: for whom does the program work best? Expanded population to test for in- and out-of-school youth The past summer We know it works, now why? New research question: is it the mentor or is the job enough? Testing program with and without mentor
Research made possible by generous support from the U.S. Department of Justice & U.S. Department of Labor