lbozinoff@ FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Chow Gains on Ford Sarah competitive in a one-on-one Toronto, In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll among 1,045 Torontonians 18 years of age and older, federal MP Olivia Chow would trounce Mayor Rob Ford with 6-in-10 votes (60%) to his one third of the total (33%). Support for Chow is highest among the young (under 35-74%), residents of the old city and East York (72%), those who take transit (68%) or bike or walk (75%), non-property owners (72%), provincial NDP supporters (82%), past supporters of George Smitherman and Joe Pantalone (86% each) and those who disapprove of Rob Ford (85%). Support for Ford is highest among older groups (55 to 64-45%), residents of Scarborough (47%), provincial PC supporters (82%) and those who voted for him in the past (69%). It should be noted that one quarter of those who voted for Rob Ford last time (25%) will vote for Olivia Chow, as will a similar proportion of those who approve of Ford (23%). Sarah competitive with Rob Ford In a 1-on-1 match-up with the mayor, former mayoral candidate Sarah would take just more than one third of the vote (36%), and not that much less than Rob Ford's 4-in-10 (41%). In this match-up[, one quarter don't have an opinion (23%). Support for is highest among the least wealthy (<$20K - 47%), mid-income ($60K to $80K - 45%) and high income groups ($100K+ - 45%), residents of the old city and East York (48%), transit users (44%) and those who bike or walk (50%), provincial NDP supporters (48%), Smitherman (59%) or Pantalone supporters (55%) and those who disapprove of Rob Ford (54%). Chow wins all other match-ups In a four-way match-up Olivia Chow wins with 43% to 32% for Mayor Ford, 13% for Councillor Adam Vaughan and 7% for Sarah. This indicates that 's appeal as a candidate is embodied chiefly in the fact she is not Rob Ford, rather than for any particular qualities of her own. In a three-way match-up, Chow wins even more convincingly with close to half the vote (49%) to one third for Rob Ford (35%) and less than a tenth for Sarah (8%). HIGHLIGHTS: Federal MP Olivia Chow would trounce Mayor Rob Ford with 6-in-10 votes (60%) to his one third of the total (33%). Support for Chow is highest among the young (under 35-74%), residents of the old city and East York (72%), those who take transit (68%) or bike or walk (75%), non-property owners (72%), provincial NDP supporters (82%), past supporters of George Smitherman and Joe Pantalone (86% each) and those who disapprove of Rob Ford (85%). Support for Ford is highest among older groups (55 to 64-45%), residents of Scarborough (47%), provincial PC supporters (82%) and those who voted for him in the past (69%). In a 1-on-1 match-up with the mayor, former mayoral candidate Sarah would take just more than one third of the vote (36%), and not that much less than Rob Ford's 4-in-10 (41%). 1
In a four-way match-up with Councillor Shelley Carroll added to the mix, Chow wins with close to half the vote (47%) to one third for Ford (32%) and less than a tenth for Carroll (8%) or (6%). "It is interesting to see Sarah in a competitive position with the mayor. It may be their recent conflict, it may be that she's not him, it may be that she has a genuine constituency. Only time will tell. In the meanwhile, however, Olivia Chow is still the mayoral candidate to beat," said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President. Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@ or at (416) 960-9603. lbozinoff@ HIGHLIGHTS: In a 1-on-1 match-up with the mayor, former mayoral candidate Sarah would take just more than one third of the vote (36%), and not that much less than Rob Ford's 4-in-10 (41%). In this match-up[, one quarter don't have an opinion (23%). Support for is highest among the least wealthy (<$20K - 47%), midincome ($60K to $80K - 45%) and high income groups ($100K+ - 45%), residents of the old city and East York (48%), transit users (44%) and those who bike or walk (50%), provincial NDP supporters (48%), Smitherman (59%) or Pantalone supporters (55%) and those who disapprove of Rob Ford (54%). In a four-way match-up with Councillor Shelley Carroll added to the mix, Chow wins with close to half the vote (47%) to one third for Ford (32%) and less than a tenth for Carroll (8%) or (6%). 2
Methodology The Forum Poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1,045 randomly selected residents of Toronto aged 18 or older. The poll was conducted on March 19 th, 2013. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 5%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample (such as age, gender) results are available at www./samplestim.asp. Where appropriate, the data has been statistically weighted to ensure that the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest Census data. This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather, captures opinion at one point in time. Forum Research conducted this poll as a public service and to demonstrate our survey research capabilities. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian-owned Forum Research is one of the country s leading survey research firms. This and other polls may be found at Forum's poll archive at www./polls.asp. lbozinoff@ 3
Two Way Mayoral Trial Heats Ford / Chow % Sample Rob Ford Olivia Chow Don t Know 1045 33 60 7 Jan 25 th, 2013 1099 40 52 8 Oct 25 th, 2012 614 34 49 17 Jun 25 th 28 th, 2012 1212 34 58 8 lbozinoff@ 4
Mayoral Election Preference Ford and If a mayoral election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Mayor Rob Ford and former mayoral candidate Sarah? lbozinoff@ [All Respondents] Age / Gender 18-34 35-45- 55-44 54 64 65+ Male Female Sample 1045 82 138 226 268 331 478 567 Mayor Rob Ford 41 32 41 44 52 48 44 39 Sarah 36 42 37 40 25 28 37 35 Don't know 23 26 22 17 23 24 19 26 Region Toronto or North Etobicoke or East York York York Scarborough Sample 1045 396 225 214 210 Mayor Rob Ford 41 22 51 42 56 Sarah 36 48 30 38 25 Don't know 23 30 19 19 20 Household Income <$20K $20- $40- $60- $80-40K 60K 80K 100K $100K+ Sample 1045 92 145 159 127 98 228 Mayor Rob Ford 41 37 52 38 40 37 29 Sarah 36 47 22 40 45 28 45 Don't know 23 16 27 22 15 34 26 5
Primary Transit / Own Property Drive Take the TTC or other public transit Other Yes No Sample 1045 382 293 125 750 295 Mayor Rob Ford 41 48 35 28 45 35 Sarah 36 28 44 50 34 39 Don't know 23 24 21 22 21 25 lbozinoff@ Current Provincial Party Preference PC Lib NDP Green Other parties Sample 1045 263 400 265 44 26 Mayor Rob Ford 41 82 35 23 20 53 Sarah 36 10 43 48 44 11 Don't know 23 8 23 29 36 36 Past Mayoral Vote Rob Ford George Smitherman Joe Pantalone Someone else Didn't vote in the last mayoral election Sample 1045 435 294 110 140 66 Mayor Rob Ford 41 80 16 16 15 19 Former mayoral candidate Sarah 36 12 59 55 45 36 Don't know 23 8 26 29 40 45 Ford Approval / Chow Approval Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Sample 1045 437 608 731 314 Mayor Rob Ford 41 87 11 30 70 Sarah 36 9 54 43 18 Don't know 23 4 35 27 12 6
Mayoral Election Preference Ford,, Chow and Vaughn If a mayoral election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Mayor Rob Ford, former mayoral candidate Sarah, federal MP Olivia Chow and Councillor Adam Vaughan? lbozinoff@ [All Respondents] Age / Gender 18-35- 45-55- 34 44 54 64 65+ Male Female Sample 1045 82 138 226 268 331 478 567 Mayor Rob Ford 32 22 30 36 42 39 37 27 Sarah 7 11 4 7 3 5 6 7 Federal MP Olivia Chow 43 49 45 36 39 37 38 46 Councillor Adam Vaughan 13 12 15 15 11 12 13 13 Don't know 6 7 6 5 5 7 6 6 Region Toronto or North Etobicoke or East York York York Scarborough Sample 1045 396 225 214 210 Mayor Rob Ford 32 16 38 35 42 Sarah 7 3 10 3 11 Federal MP Olivia Chow 43 50 40 45 31 Councillor Adam Vaughan 13 21 9 10 11 Don't know 6 9 3 7 6 Household Income <20K 20-40- 60-80- 40K 60K 80K 100K 100K+ Sample 1045 92 145 159 127 98 228 Mayor Rob Ford 32 30 41 30 33 29 22 Sarah 7 9 5 8 6 3 5 Federal MP Olivia Chow 43 53 34 51 37 50 44 Councillor Adam Vaughan 13 4 15 6 22 15 17 Don't know 6 4 5 4 2 3 12 7
Primary Transit / Own Property Drive Take the TTC or other public transit Other Yes No Sample 1045 382 293 125 750 295 Mayor Rob Ford 32 39 24 18 36 24 Sarah 7 8 9 3 6 8 Federal MP Olivia Chow 43 34 49 55 38 50 Councillor Adam Vaughan 13 11 13 20 13 13 Don't know 6 8 5 4 7 5 lbozinoff@ Current Provincial Party Preference PC Lib NDP Green Other parties Sample 1045 263 400 265 44 26 Mayor Rob Ford 32 74 20 16 17 48 Sarah 7 7 7 6 2 13 Federal MP Olivia Chow 43 9 50 61 47 31 Councillor Adam Vaughan 13 4 18 13 30 4 Don't know 6 5 6 5 4 4 Past Mayoral Vote Rob Ford George Smitherman Joe Pantalone Someone else Didn't vote in the last mayoral election Sample 1045 435 294 110 140 66 Mayor Rob Ford 32 68 8 6 5 14 Former mayoral candidate Sarah 7 5 6 7 13 10 Federal MP Olivia Chow 43 20 59 58 57 53 Councillor Adam Vaughan 13 4 19 26 18 13 Don't know 6 4 8 4 8 10 8
Ford Approval / Chow Approval lbozinoff@ Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Sample 1045 437 608 731 314 Mayor Rob Ford 32 75 2 19 65 Sarah 7 5 8 6 9 Federal MP Olivia Chow 43 15 61 56 8 Councillor Adam Vaughan 13 3 20 15 7 Don't know 6 2 9 4 11 9
Mayoral Election Preference Ford, and Chow If a mayoral election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Mayor Rob Ford, former mayoral candidate Sarah and federal MP Olivia Chow? lbozinoff@ [All Respondents] Age / Gender 18-35- 45-55- 34 44 54 64 65+ Male Female Sample 1045 82 138 226 268 331 478 567 Mayor Rob Ford 35 26 35 38 48 38 41 29 Sarah 8 12 6 8 3 8 5 11 Federal MP Olivia Chow 49 50 53 49 42 48 46 52 Don't know 8 12 7 5 7 7 7 8 Region Toronto or North Etobicoke or East York York York Scarborough Sample 1045 396 225 214 210 Mayor Rob Ford 35 20 43 38 42 Sarah 8 6 8 6 13 Federal MP Olivia Chow 49 63 43 49 37 Don't know 8 11 6 7 7 Household Income <$20K $20- $40- $60- $80-40K 60K 80K 100K $100K+ Sample 1045 92 145 159 127 98 228 Mayor Rob Ford 35 36 46 31 42 29 26 Sarah 8 14 2 4 4 13 9 Federal MP Olivia Chow 49 45 42 61 49 51 51 Don't know 8 5 9 4 5 7 14 10
Primary Transit / Own Property Drive Take the TTC or other public transit Other Yes No Sample 1045 382 293 125 750 295 Mayor Rob Ford 35 41 31 18 38 30 Sarah 8 5 13 9 6 12 Federal MP Olivia Chow 49 43 52 64 49 50 Don't know 8 11 4 9 8 8 lbozinoff@ Current Provincial Party Preference PC Lib NDP Green Other parties Sample 1045 263 400 265 44 26 Mayor Rob Ford 35 79 22 23 21 36 Sarah 8 6 10 5 1 26 Federal MP Olivia Chow 49 11 60 66 55 31 Don't know 8 5 8 5 23 6 Past Mayoral Vote Rob Ford George Smitherman Joe Pantalone Someone else Didn't vote in the last mayoral election Sample 1045 435 294 110 140 66 Mayor Rob Ford 35 70 11 5 13 20 Former mayoral candidate Sarah 8 5 7 5 18 13 Federal MP Olivia Chow 49 21 71 84 54 57 Don't know 8 3 11 7 15 11 11
Ford Approval / Chow Approval ROB FORD - Approve ROB FORD - Disapprove OLIVIA CHOW - Approve OLIVIA CHOW - Disapprove Sample 1045 437 608 731 314 Mayor Rob Ford 35 77 6 22 69 Former mayoral candidate Sarah 8 4 11 8 9 Federal MP Olivia Chow 49 17 71 64 9 Don't know 8 2 12 6 13 lbozinoff@ 12
Mayoral Election Preference Ford,, Carroll and Chow If a mayoral election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Mayor Rob Ford, former mayoral candidate Sarah, Councillor Shelley Carroll and federal MP Olivia Chow? lbozinoff@ [All Respondents] Age / Gender 18-35- 45-55- 34 44 54 64 65+ Male Female Sample 1045 82 138 226 268 331 478 567 Mayor Rob Ford 32 21 32 38 40 39 39 25 Sarah 6 5 5 8 3 9 6 5 Copuncillor Shelley Carroll 8 9 6 7 9 7 5 10 Federal MP Olivia Chow 47 56 50 39 42 38 42 51 Don't know 8 9 7 8 6 7 8 8 Region Toronto or North Etobicoke or East York York York Scarborough Sample 1045 396 225 214 210 Mayor Rob Ford 32 17 38 36 41 Sarah 6 6 6 3 8 Copuncillor Shelley Carroll 8 11 7 3 10 Federal MP Olivia Chow 47 58 42 50 34 Don't know 8 8 7 8 7 Household Income <20K 20-40- 60-80- 40K 60K 80K 100K 100K+ Sample 1045 92 145 159 127 98 228 Mayor Rob Ford 32 26 34 32 37 30 24 Sarah 6 7 5 5 4 5 7 Copuncillor Shelley Carroll 8 5 4 3 11 12 9 Federal MP Olivia Chow 47 56 48 54 45 48 45 Don't know 8 5 9 6 3 5 14 13
Primary Transit / Own Property Drive Take the TTC or other public transit Other Yes No Sample 1045 382 293 125 750 295 Mayor Rob Ford 32 39 24 19 37 23 Sarah 6 4 8 7 5 7 Copuncillor Shelley Carroll 8 7 9 9 9 6 Federal MP Olivia Chow 47 39 54 58 42 55 Don't know 8 11 6 7 7 9 lbozinoff@ Current Provincial Party Preference PC Lib NDP Green Other parties Sample 1045 263 400 265 44 26 Mayor Rob Ford 32 76 18 18 24 42 Sarah 6 5 6 4 3 19 Copuncillor Shelley Carroll 8 6 12 6 1 11 Federal MP Olivia Chow 47 9 55 68 57 24 Don't know 8 5 9 5 16 4 Past Mayoral Vote Rob Ford George Smitherman Joe Pantalone Someone else Didn't vote in the last mayoral election Sample 1045 435 294 110 140 66 Mayor Rob Ford 32 68 8 4 12 10 Former mayoral candidate Sarah 6 5 4 5 10 11 Copuncillor Shelley Carroll 8 4 14 4 7 8 Federal MP Olivia Chow 47 20 65 78 57 57 Don't know 8 3 9 9 14 13 14
lbozinoff@ Ford Approval / Chow Approval Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Sample 1045 437 608 731 314 Mayor Rob Ford 32 74 3 18 67 Sarah 6 4 7 5 8 Copuncillor Shelley Carroll 8 3 11 8 7 Federal MP Olivia Chow 47 17 67 63 6 Don't know 8 2 11 6 13 15
Mayoral Election Preference Ford and Chow If a mayoral election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Mayor Rob Ford and federal MP Olivia Chow? [All Respondents] lbozinoff@ Age / Gender 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Male Female Sample 1045 82 138 226 268 331 478 567 Mayor Rob Ford 33 20 32 42 45 40 39 28 Federal MP Olivia Chow 60 74 60 52 49 51 55 64 Don't know 7 7 8 6 7 9 6 8 Region Toronto or East North Etobicoke or York York York Scarborough Sample 1045 396 225 214 210 Mayor Rob Ford 33 18 36 37 47 Federal MP Olivia Chow 60 72 58 60 45 Don't know 7 10 6 4 8 Household Income <20K 20-40K 40-60K 60-80K 80-100K 100K+ Sample 1045 92 145 159 127 98 228 Mayor Rob Ford 33 36 34 30 32 32 26 Federal MP Olivia Chow 60 59 53 64 65 63 64 Don't know 7 5 13 6 3 4 10 Primary Transit / Own Property Drive Take the TTC or other public transit Other Yes No Sample 1045 382 293 125 750 295 Mayor Rob Ford 33 41 25 18 40 22 Federal MP Olivia Chow 60 52 68 75 52 72 Don't know 7 8 7 7 7 7 16
Current Provincial Party Preference PC Lib NDP Green Other parties Sample 1045 263 400 265 44 26 Mayor Rob Ford 33 82 20 14 21 49 Federal MP Olivia Chow 60 14 72 82 68 41 Don't know 7 4 8 4 11 10 lbozinoff@ Past Mayoral Vote Rob Ford George Smitherman Joe Pantalone Someone else Didn't vote in the last mayoral election Sample 1045 435 294 110 140 66 Mayor Rob Ford 33 69 8 9 11 12 Federal MP Olivia Chow 60 25 86 86 75 77 Don't know 7 6 6 5 14 11 Ford Approval / Chow Approval Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Sample 1045 437 608 731 314 Mayor Rob Ford 33 73 6 18 71 Federal MP Olivia Chow 60 23 85 77 17 Don't know 7 4 9 5 12 17
lbozinoff@ -30- For more information: Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. President Forum Research Inc. Tel: (416) 960-9603 Fax: (416) 960-9602 E-mail: lbozinoff@ 18