FACHIN S LIST SOCIAL NETWORKS STRATEGIC ANALYSIS REPORT 12/04/17
FACHIN S LIST In the first 24 hours, the traditional polarization between government and opposition gave way to a general criticism of the political system. There were 300,000 tweets and 780,000 interactions on Facebook about the theme; Among the most mentioned actors, with almost exclusively negative feelings, were some of the most important leaders former president Lula, senator Aécio Neves, and president Temer; Increasing expectations are being directed at the Judiciary. Any failure of Justice could lead to systemic disbelief in institutions with unpredictable effects. The release of the list of the names of those object of investigations authorized by the judge responsible for Operation Car Wash in the Federal Supreme Court (STF), Luiz Edson Fachin, was perceived by political actors and media vehicles as an atomic bomb in the Brazilian political system. This perception, which should become clearer over the coming days and weeks, has already been reflected in the repercussion of Fachin s List on social networks. Both in groups of profiles more aligned with the Michel Temer administration and those in the opposition camp, the moment is of retraction against the advance of a discourse of systemic criticism of institutional politics, reinforcing the scenario of a legitimacy crisis of the Brazilian political system. In this sense, in the first 24 hours after the list became known, the debate mobilized by media vehicles and media profiles had an important role, due to the release and repercussion of the list of investigations, and also because of non-aligned field in the political debate on the web. In Interactions Map 1, formed by approximately 300,000 interactions on Twitter between 16pm on Tuesday 11 May and 16pm on Wednesday 1
12 May, it can be observed that the traditional polarization of the Brazilian political dispute led by groups with a blue profile (in general pro-government) and red (from the opposition) gave way to a general criticism, represented by the yellow (media profiles) and green ( non-aligned ) groups. In a more lateral position, albeit an increasing one, were profiles from the alternative right, shown in light blue and basically centered around Deputy Jair Bolsonaro. Interactions Map 1 (300,000 tweets - 16pm on 11/04 to 16pm on 12/04) Added together, the groups represented in green (14.2%), yellow (12.8%), and light blue (7.2%) amount to around one third of the discussion of Fachin s List on Twitter since Tuesday 11 May. The blue and red clusters 2
represent 12.5% and 11.8% of the total, respectively. The remaining volume of interactions is formed by a variety of more fragmented groups which do not form a field of debate. In the figure below, which reproduces Interactions Map 1, though without the identification of user profiles, the groups are identified. Interactions Map 1 (without identification of profiles) An analysis of the discourse used by each of these groups can be seen in the following figure. Among the blue and red groups, the most mentioned actors are Lula and Aécio, respectively, reflecting the strategy of emphasizing the exhaustion of the opposing camp. It can also be noted that the Media Profiles present a transversal capacity, cutting across almost all the words. The alternative right calls attention by creating its own agenda in relation to the other groups. 3
Content Analysis per Cluster 4
In Facebook, during the same period of analysis, 780,000 interactions related to Operation Car Wash (Lava Jato) were identified. The figure below reveals the most recurrent terms within this universe of interactions. In addition to Odebrecht, former president Lula and institutional actors such as the STF and the Senate are all important, as well as Operation Car Wash. Theme Graphic - Terms related to Lava Jato 1. Mentions of Actors Among the most mentioned actors in recent days have been the most important Brazilian political leaders, practically all of whom are cited in some form in the investigations of Operation Car Wash and the plea bargains of Odebrecht executives. Former president Lula is the first, 5
followed by Senator Aécio Neves, and President Michel Temer. Among the first ten there also appear the former presidents Dilma Rousseff and Fernando Henrique Cardoso, and the governor of São Paulo state Geraldo Alckmin. The list of the most mentioned politicians demonstrates the extent of the damage caused by Fachin s List to Brazilian politics. Mentions of Actors (Twitter 16pm on 11/04 to 16pm on 12/04) 6
In this scenario, on the other hand, some actors whether or not they are politicians have managed to capitalize on this moment of crisis. Most important of these are Judge Sérgio Moro, one of the ten most mentioned actors in the period, and Deputy Jair Bolsonaro, who appears shortly afterwards. The Mayor of São Paulo, João Doria, appears next, also reaping political dividends from the crisis which has affected the principal leaders of his party. However, Ciro Gomes and Marina Silva, actors who could have capitalized on this moment of crisis in the field of opposition to the government and even more than this -, appear in a more modest position, with 260 and 130 mentions in the period respectively. 2. The role of the Judiciary If the Judiciary was included as an actor, it would also appear among the most mentioned in the universe of analysis, with around 6200 mentions. This fact is noteworthy as it emphasizes the expectation that the advance of Operation Car Wash has created in society in relation to the punishment of those involved. The strong presence of Judge Sérgio Moro among the actors mentioned, despite the fact that he is not directly related to Fachin s list, reinforces this fact. Added together, Moro and the Judiciary received more than 10,000 mentions, which shows the pressure on the judicial system to meet the expectations created by the evolution of the investigations. In this sense, there is growing pressure for the judiciary to exercise a republican role and a rejection of initiatives which signify any type of restriction on the progress of the investigations. Growing expectations are being directed towards the judiciary - a fact which has to be accompanied attentively. Any failures of justice could thus lead to systemic disbelief in institutions with unpredictable effects. 7
The figure below reveals the increase in the debate about trust in Brazilian institutions, corroborating the idea that the Fachin s List episode has created enormous pressure on the sphere charged with carrying forwards the process initiated by Operation Car Wash. Mentions of the crisis of trust in institutions (Twitter 16pm on 11/04 to 16pm on 12/04) 8
3. The Michel Temer Administration Fachin s List also intensified questions about the impact on the Michel Temer administration and the progress of its reform agenda. The analysis of the repercussion of the episode on the web shows, however, that at least for now this possibility is still open. In Theme Analysis 1, which identifies the relationship between the themes most associated with President Temer on Facebook in this period, it can be noted for now a certain distancing of the cluster formed by the former presidents Lula, Dilma, and FHC and Senator Aécio Neves. On the other hand, a relationship closer to the cluster formed by institutional actors - such as the Senate, the Chamber of Deputies, the STF and the government supporting parties above all the PMDB and PSDB can be observed. The exception in this case is Odebrecht, which appears a permanent threat to governability. Theme Analysis 1 Topics linked to Temer (Facebook - 16pm on 11/04 to 16pm on 12/04) The analysis on Twitter also reveals that, of the total mentions of 9
President Michel Temer, approximately 31,000 or 45.6% were related to Operation Car Wash and/or Fachin s List, reinforcing the idea of questioning the impact of the episode on the government. On the other hand, only 4.4% of the total mentions of Operation Car Wash and Fachin s List were directly related to President Michel Temer. 10
Conclusion The analysis of the repercussion of Fachin s List in the 24 hours following its release shows a scenario of systemic criticism of Brazilian politics, reaching actors from all the principal parties and across the political spectrum. At the same time, it shows a growing expectation in the role to be exercised by the Judiciary in relation to trust in institutions. The release of the list of those into whom the opening of investigations was authorized by the judge responsible for Operation Car Wash in the STF was perceived by political actors and media vehicles as an atomic bomb; This perception, which should become clearer over the coming days and weeks, is already reflected in the repercussion of Fachin s List 11
on the web; The list of the most mentioned politicians demonstrates the extension of the damage caused by Fachin s List on Brazilian politics; Some actors whether or not they are politicians have managed to capitalize on the moment of crisis. Most important are Judge Sérgio Moro, Deputy Jair Bolsonaro, and the Mayor of São Paulo, João Doria; An increase in the debate about trust in Brazilian institutions has been observed; Finally, the possibility of the impact of Fachin s List on the Michel Temer administration and his reform agenda is still uncertain. FGV Founded in 1944, Fundação Getulio Vargas was created with the aim of promoting the social and economic development of Brazil, through the education of qualified administrators in both the public and private spheres. Over time, FGV has expanded its activities to other areas of knowledge, such as social sciences, law, economics, history and, most recently, applied mathematics, which is a benchmark in quality and excellence in all of its eight schools. Luiz Simões Lopes Building (Main Office) Address: Praia de Botafogo, 190 Rio de Janeiro/ RJ CEP: 22250-900 Tel: +55 (21) 3799-5938 First president and founder Luiz Simões Lopes President Carlos Ivan Simonsen Leal Vice presidents Francisco Oswaldo Neves Dornelles (on leave) Marcos Cintra Cavalcanti de Albuquerque (on leave) Sergio Franklin Quintella FGV/DAPP 12
Director Marco Aurelio Ruediger Analyst Thomas Traumann Technical Coordinator Amaro Grassi Contact +55 21 3799.4300 www.dapp.fgv.br dapp@fgv.br 13