Population, Migration and Urbanization

Population, Migration and Urbanization Contemporary National Development (CONADEV) Alellie B. Sobreviñas, Ph.D. alellie.sobrevinas@dlsu.edu.ph Estimated World Population 2017: 7.6 billion people first started to cultivate food through agriculture Industrial revolution (population almost tripled) population increased by 1.7 billion (200 years) more than double increase in population (4 decades) Annual Increase in World Population, 1951-2015 Millions 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10-1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, 2017. 1

About 1.7 billion people lived in developing countries Growth in More, Less Developed Countries 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Billions Less Developed Regions Over 8 billion people lived in developing countries 1 More Developed Regions 0 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 The population of the developed countries will grow very little between now and 2050, even accounting for immigration from developing countries. Notes: More developed regions comprise Europe, Northern America, Australia/New Zealand and Japan. Less developed regions comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (except Japan), Latin America and the Caribbean plus Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia. Source: Population Reference BureauWorld Population Data Sheet 2012, page 4; data are drawn from United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision (2011), medium variant estimates. World Population Distribution by Region, 2010 and 2050 Philippine Data and Forecasts Total Population By Sex and Sex Ratio for 2015 (in thousands) Total Population Male Population Female Population Sex Ratio (males per 100 females) 100,699 50,813 49,887 102 Philippine Population in 2015, 2050 and 2100 Population (millions) 2015 101 2050 148 2100 169 Source: PSA Source: PSA 2

Population: relevant concepts 1. Rate of population increase -thegrowth rate of a population -percentage yearly net relative increase (or decrease) in population size due to natural increase and net international migration Population Increase and Growth Rate Worldwide, Five-Year Periods Millions 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 80 87 83 79 76 76 75 72 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 Percent increase per year 10 0.2 0 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 0 Net population added per year Annual population growth rate Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. Average Annual Population Growth Rates by Country Income Group, 1980-2010 3

Population: relevant concepts RECALL: The rate of population increaserefers to the percentage yearly net relative increase (or decrease) in population size due to natural increase and net international migration 2. Natural increase -the difference between the birth rate and the death rate of a given population (or difference between fertility and mortality) 3. Net international migration-the excess of persons migrating into a country over those who emigrate from that country Remark: Population increases in developing countries depend almost entirely on natural increase. Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population 40 35 30 25 20 Natural Increase 15 10 5 0 1950-1955 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 Birth rate Death rate Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005. Population: relevant concepts 4. Crude birth rate -the number of children born alive each year per 1,000 population (often shortened to birth rate) most developing nations have birth rates ranging from 15 to 45 per 1,000 almost all developed countries have rates less than 15 per 1,000 5. Death rate -the number of deaths each year per 1,000 population lower death rates in the past 3 decades for all age groups due to modernvaccination campaigns against malaria, smallpox, yellow fever, and cholera as well as the proliferation of public health facilities, clean water supplies, improved nutrition, and public education 4

Population: relevant concepts 6. Total fertility rate (TFR)-the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with the prevailing age-specific fertility rates substantial decline over the past 3 decades in many countries remains high in sub-saharan Africa (5.1 in 2012) and western Asia (2.9 in 2012) 7. Life expectancy at birth the number of years a newborn child would live if subjected to the mortality risks prevailing for the population at the time of the child s birth about 12 years greater in developed countries although this gap was reduced significantly in recent decades 8. Under-5 mortality rate -Deaths among children between birth and 5 years of age per 1,000 live births Considerable decline in recent periods Countries with the highest fertility rates 1975-1980 2010-2015 2025-2030 2045-2050 Country Fertility Rates Country Fertility Rates Country Fertility Rates Country Fertility Rates Yemen 8.50 Niger 7.63 Niger 6.68 Niger 4.87 Rwanda 8.43 Somalia 6.61 Somalia 5.22 Somalia 3.79 Oman 8.10 Mali 6.35 Mali 5.03 Zambia 3.73 Mayotte 7.91 Chad 6.31 Angola 4.98 Burundi 3.69 Cote 7.81 Angola 6.20 Burundi 4.89 Angola 3.64 d Ivoire Libya 7.67 Dem 6.15 Gambia 4.87 Nigeria 3.59 Republic of the Congo Kenya 7.64 Burundi 6.08 Chad 4.85 Mali 3.57 Niger 7.63 Uganda 5.91 Dem 4.77 Gambia 3.48 Republic of the Congo Malawi 7.60 Timor- Leste 5.91 Nigeria 4.74 Chad 3.46 State of Palestine 7.50 Gambai 5.78 Uganda 4.62 Dem. Republic of the Congo 3.43 Source: UN Countries with the lowest fertility rates 1975-1980 2010-2015 2025-2030 2045-2050 Country Fertility Country Fertility Country Fertility Country Fertility Rates Rates Rates Rates China, Macao SAR 1.41 Other nonspecified areas 1.07 Other nonspecified areas 1.15 Singapore 1.38 Luxembourg 1.49 China, Macao SAR 1.19 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.29 Other nonspecified areas 1.31 Bosnia and Herzegovina Germany 1.51 China, Hong Kong SAR 1.20 Republic of Moldova 1.51 Channel 1.52 Singapore 1.23 Singapore 1.31 Portugal 1.52 Island Switzerland 1.54 Republic of 1.26 Portugal 1.31 Republic of 1.52 Korea Moldova Netherlands 1.60 Republic of 1.27 Greece 1.37 Greece 1.56 Moldova Austria 1.65 Bosnia and 1.28 Poland 1.38 Poland 1.56 Herzegovina Finland 1.66 Portugal 1.28 Thailand 1.43 Thailand 1.58 Sweden 1.66 Spain 1.32 China, Hong 1.44 Bhutan 1.59 Kong SAR Denmark 1.68 Hungary 1.34 Republic of 1.45 Cyprus 1.60 Korea 1.45 Source: UN 5

Total Fertility Rates of the Philippines (average number of children per woman) Years Fertility Rate 1975-1980 5.46 1990-1995 4.14 2005-2010 3.27 2010-2015 3.04 2015-2020 2.87 2025-2030 2.59 2045-2050 2.20 2095-2100 1.83 Source: UN Countries with the highest life expectancy at birth 2010-2015 2025-2030 2045-2050 Country LE (in years) Country LE (in years) Country LE (in years) China, HK 83.7 China, HK 86.0 China, HK 88.7 SAR SAR SAR Japan 83.3 Japan 85.5 Singapore 88.3 Italy 82.8 Singapore 85.4 Martinique 88.1 Switzerland 82.7 Italy 85.3 Japan 88.1 Singapore 82.6 Switzerland 85.0 Italy 88.0 Iceland 82.3 Chile 84.8 Chile 87.8 Spain 82.3 Israel 84.7 Republic of Korea 87.7 Australia 82.1 Spain 84.7 Switzerland 87.6 Israel 82.1 Iceland 84.7 Israel 87.5 Sweden 81.9 Republic of Korea 84.7 Guadeloupe 87.4 Source: UN Countries with the Lowest Life Expectancy at Birth 2010-2015 2025-2030 2045-2050 Country LE (in years) Country LE (in years) Country LE (in years) Swaziland 49.2 Swaziland 52.7 Chad 61.6 Lesotho 49.5 Lesotho 54.7 Sierra Leone 62.1 Central African Republic 49.5 Chad 55.5 Swaziland 62.3 Sierra Leone 50.2 Sierra Leone 55.8 Nigeria 62.3 Cote d Ivoire 51.0 Nigeria 56.7 Guinea- Bissau 63.6 Chad 51.1 Cote d Ivoire 56.9 Angola 64.7 Angola 51.7 Angola 57.5 Lesotho 65.0 Nigeria 52.3 Central African Republic 58.6 Cote d Ivoire 65.1 Mozambique 54.6 Guinea- Bissau 58.8 Somalia 65.4 Guniea- Bissau 54.7 Somalia 59.8 Benin 65.6 Source: UN 6

Life Expectancy at Birth, Both Sexes Combined for the Philippines for selected periods Years Life Expectancy (Years) 1990-1995 65.7 2005-2010 67.5 2010-2015 68.0 2015-2020 68.7 2025-2030 70.1 2045-2050 72.7 2095-2100 79.8 Source: UN Population: relevant concepts 9. Youth dependency ratio proportion of young people under age 15 to the working population aged 16-64 in a country Population is relatively youthful in developing world Higher ratio in developing countries (workforce in developing countries must support more children as it does in the wealthier countries) 10. Hidden momentum of population growth population continues to increase even after a fall in birth rates because the large existing youthful population expands the population s base of potential parents Reasons: high birth rates cannot be altered substantially overnight; age structure of the population Population Issues Capacity of developing countries to improve levels of living (i.e. social services, housing, transport, sanitation, security) Capability of developing countries to address increase in labor force Implications of higher population growth rates among the poorest in the world (i.e. world food supply) Capability of developing countries to improve quality of health and education services Implications of low levels of living on parent s choice of desired family size Role of developed countries in addressing population growth in developing countries (global environment) 7

Population Pyramids: Developed and Developing Countries In many developing countries, the large percentage of people of childbearing age causes population momentum which keeps population growth rates high even when fertility rates drop. In many developed countries, where fertility rates are below replacement level and the largest segments of the population are older, populations will increase much less. Philippine Data and Forecasts Percentage Distribution of the Philippine Population in Selected Age Groups in 2015. 2050 and 2100 0-14 15-59 60+ 80+ 2015 31.9 60.8 7.3 0.6 2050 23.7 62.3 14.0 1.6 2100 17.2 56.7 26.1 5.1 Source: PSA;UN Median Age of the Philippine Population in 1950, 1980, 2015, 2050 and 2100 1950 1980 2015 2030 2050 2100 18.2 18.1 24.2 27.7 32.0 41.5 Source: PSA; UN Demographic Transition process by which fertility rates eventually decline to low and stable levels explains why developed countries have passed through the same stages of modern population history Stage I period before economic modernization stable, slow-growing population caused by: high birth ratesand almost equally high death rates Stage II start of modernization better public health methods; healthier diets; higher income reduction in mortality (death rates) that gradually increase life expectancy (40 yrs. old to 60 yrs. old) sharp increase in population growth because of falling death rates but high birth rates Stage III the forces and influences of modernization and development caused the beginning of a decline in fertility thus: little or no population growth because of low birth rates and death rates 8

The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Birth rate Natural increase Death rate Time Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths. Population Theories 1. Malthusian Population Model In 1798, Malthus postulated that the populationof a country (unless checked by dwindling food supplies) tends to grow at a geometric rate, doubling every 30 to 40 years. because of diminishing returns to the fixed factor, land, food supplies could expand only at a roughly arithmetic rate Growth in food supplies could not keep pace with the rapidly increasing population Malthusian population trap: countries would be trapped in low per-capita incomes (per capita food), and population would stabilize at a subsistence level. Population Theories Malthus contended that the only way to avoid this condition of chronic low levels of living or absolute poverty was for people to - engage in moral restraint - limit the number of their children Malthus may be regarded as the father of modern birth control movement. 9

Limitations of the Malthusian Model (as applied to contemporary developing nations) does not consider the effect of technological progress (e.g., in agriculture, improving quality of land or its productivity) in offsetting the growth-inhibiting forces of rapid population increases it is based on the assumption that national rates of population increase are directly related to the level of national per capita income(but there is no clear relationship between population growth and levels of per capita income based on research) It focuses on per capita income rather than the microeconomics of family size decision makingin which individual, and not aggregate, levels of living become the principal determinant of a family s decision to have more or fewer children. 2. Microeconomic Theory Of Fertility (Household theory of fertility) Main idea: fertility (family size) is a decision taken at the microeconomic level by households there is a rational economic decision on demand for children D = f Y, P, P, t ) C ( C X X Two effects in consumption of children 1. income effect - higher income allows for larger family size 2. substitution effect -higher price (cost) of children implies smaller family size Demand for Children in Developing Countries children are partly seen as economic investment goods (child labor, provide for needs of parents (old age, sickness, etc.) when the price or cost of children rises parents will demand fewer additional children men and women have different objective functions (e.g., husbands may prefer more children than wives) better educated women --> tend to earn larger share of household income and to produce fewer children religious beliefs (culture) 10

Does rapid population growth lead to serious development problems? What are the conflicting perspectives? 1. Population growth is not a real problem 2. Population growth is not a real problem Population Growth is not a Real Problem 1. The problem is not population growth but other issues. underdevelopment is caused by underlying social, economic & political factors developed countries are overconsuming & depleting natural resources spatial distribution subordination of women (women s lack of economic opportunity) Population Growth is nota Real Problem 2. Population growth is a false issue deliberately created by dominant rich country agencies and institutions to keep developing countries in their dependent condition the overconcernin the rich nations with the population growth of poor nations is really an attempt by the former to hold down the development of the latter in order to maintain an international status quo that is favorable to the rich nations self-interests 11

Population Growth is nota Real Problem 3. Population growth is an essential ingredient to stimulate economic development larger markets, increased demand for goods labor for cultivation of large arable lands in developing countries national defense political and military power Population Growth isa Real Problem 1. hinders economic development due to increase in poverty; cause of low levels of living, malnutrition, ill health, environmental degradation, and a wide array of other social problems. 2. overconcentration of population in urban areas 3. population problem is not just an issue of quantity but also of quality(of life and material well-being) Policy approaches to population growth Specific policies that developing countries may adopt to lower birth rates in the short run: 1. persuade people to have smaller families (through the media and educational process) 2. enhance family planning programs ( e.g., to provide health and contraceptive services) 12

Policy approaches to population growth Specific policies that developing countries may adopt to lower birth rates in the short run: 3. deliberately manipulate economic incentives and disincentives for having children elimination or reduction of maternity leaves and benefits reduction or elimination of financial incentives, or the imposition of financial penalties for having children beyond a certain number; the establishment of old-age social security provisions and minimum-age child labor laws the raising of fees and elimination of heavy public subsidies for higher education the subsidization of smaller families through direct money payments Policy approaches to population growth Specific policies that developing countries may adopt to lower birth rates in the short run: 5. coerce people into having smaller families (through the power of state legislation and penalties) but morally repugnant and politically unacceptable (e.g., forced-sterilization program in India) 6. raise the social and economic status of women-create conditions favorableto delayed marriage and lower marital fertility (e.g., increased education and employment opportunities for women) Migration and Urbanization for the first time in human history, in 2009 globally the number of people living in urban areas (3.42 billion) had surpassed the number living in rural areas (3.41 billion). (UN Population Division) by 2025, nearly 2/3 will live in urban areas urban population growth in the developing countries > population growth, in general the developing world is expected to become majority urban before 2020 about half the urban growth is accounted for by migrants from rural areas 13

Migration and Urbanization Reasons for internal migration (rural to urban migration) economic physical natural disasters, war social more services/amenities in urban areas (health, education) cultural beliefs communication, transportation and infrastructure facilities Migration and Urbanization Characteristics of Migrants young: age 15 to 24 have higher levels of education single women from all economic classes Todaro Migration Model A theory that explains rural-urban migration as an economically rational process despite high urban unemployment. Migrants calculate (present value of) urban expected income (or its equivalent) and move if this exceeds average rural income 4 Basic Characteristics of Todaro Migration Model migration is caused by economic considerations decision depends on expected wage in the urban area possibility of getting an urban job is directly related to the urban employment rate high migration rates may lead to urban unemployment due to unequal economic opportunities 14

What explains the strong association between urbanization and development? 1. Agglomeration economics provides cost advantages to the market (urbanization economies; localization economies) 2. Industrial districts location where firms benefits from each other economic definition of a city an area with relatively high population density that contains a set of closely related activities 3. Efficient urban scale - infrastructure Migration and Employment Strategy 1. Create an appropriate rural-urban economic balance integrated development of the rural sector spread of rural nonfarm employment opportunities improved credit access better agricultural training reorientation of social investments toward rural areas improving rural infrastructure addressing shortcomings of rural institutions Migration and Employment Strategy 2. Expand small-scale, labor-intensive industries government investment and incentives improved access to credit, particularly for activities in the urban informal sector 3. Eliminate factor price distortions eliminate various capital subsidies curtail the growth of urban wages through market-based pricing 15

Migration and Employment Strategy 4. Choose appropriate labor-intensivetechnologies of production develop low-cost, labor-intensivemethods of meeting rural infrastructure needs, including roads, irrigation and drainage systems, and essential health and educational services 5. Modify the linkage between education and employment creation of attractive economic opportunities in the rural areas -> redirect educational systems toward the needs of rural development Migration and Employment Strategy 6. Reduce population growth reductions in absolute poverty and inequality, particularly for women, along with the expanded provision of family-planning and rural health services 7. Decentralize authority to cities and neighborhoods essential step in the improvement of urban policies and the quality of public services Migration and Employment Strategy 8. Leverage untapped opportunities for urban dynamism harnessing the growth potential of developing-country cities 9. Address the desperate poverty needs of the poor now living in urban slum conditions residents in slum communities face disease and death from unsanitary conditions and increasing vulnerability to severe weather events and other disasters) 10. Anticipate and assist the new climate migrants 16