Central and Eastern European Attitudes inthefaceofunion

Central and Eastern European Attitudes inthefaceofunion

Central and Eastern European Attitudes inthefaceofunion Simona Guerra Lecturer, University of Leicester, UK

Simona Guerra 2013 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2013 978-0-230-27986-5 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6 10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted her right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2013 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave and Macmillan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-32709-6 ISBN 978-1-137-31948-7 (ebook) DOI 10.1057/9781137319487 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.

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Contents List of Tables and Figures Acknowledgements List of Abbreviations viii xi xii 1 Introduction: Europe and Europeans 1 2 Patterns of Support for, and Opposition to, European Integration as a Candidate Country 22 3 Patterns of Support for, and Opposition to, European Integration after Accession 53 4 Voting for or against Europe 83 5 Information on the EU: Poland and Central and Eastern Europe 101 6 Euroscepticism and the Next Enlargements 121 7 Conclusion 139 Appendix 153 Bibliography 163 Index 177 vii

Tables and Figures Tables 2.1 1990: Are things going in the right direction? 23 2.2 Support for EU integration in Croatia (2000 2005) 26 2.3 Support for the EU before accession 32 2.4 When joining the EU 33 2.5 Interest in the EU 33 2.6 1994 1997: Comparing DV and IVs, mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation 35 2.7 1998 2001: Comparing DV and IVs, mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation 38 2.8 EU integration and conditions of living 40 2.9 2002 2004: Comparing DV and IVs, mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation 43 2.10 Before accession (1994 2004) 46 2.11 Binary regression analysis (2001 PNES) 48 2.12 Multinomial logistic regression analysis (2001 PNES) 50 3.1 Willingness to vote in the Constitutional Treaty referendum 58 3.2 Voting in the Constitutional Treaty referendum 60 3.3 2004 2006 data. DV and IVs: Mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation 63 3.4 Binary logistic regression analysis 2005 PNES 68 3.5 Multivariate regression analysis 2005 PNES 70 3.6 Multivariate regression analysis 2005 PNES 71 3.7 Multivariate regression analysis 2005 PNES 72 3.8 Levels of trust in Poland (2010) 77 3.9 Levels of trust in Bulgaria (2010) 77 3.10 Levels of trust in Croatia (2010) 77 3.11 Levels of trust in Ukraine (2010) 78 4.1 EU accession referendum: Turnout and Yes votes 86 4.2 Eurogaps: Turnout at the national and European elections, and EU accession referendum 89 4.3 Binary regression analysis on the 2004 EES Assessment on the past economic situation 93 viii

List of Tables and Figures ix 4.4 Binary regression analysis on the 2004 EES Assessment on the future economic situation 94 4.5 Testing the legacy : Binary regression analysis on the 2004 Polish EES 95 5.1 Religion and the EU 109 5.2 FG1 attitudes towards the EU before accession 112 5.3 FG2 attitudes towards the EU before accession 112 5.4 FG1 attitudes towards the EU after accession 112 5.5 FG2 attitudes towards the EU after accession 113 5.6 FG1 self-perceived assessment of level of information 113 5.7 FG2 self-perceived assessment of level of information 114 7.1 Case study: Research hypotheses and findings (using binary logistic regression analysis, 2001 PNES and 2005 PNES) 140 7.2 Comparative analysis: Research hypotheses and findings (using binary logistic regression analysis, 2004 EES) 145 A.1 Residential category (Warsaw) 153 A.2 Residential category (Zielona Góra) 153 A.3 By regions (Warsaw) 154 A.4 By regions (Zielona Góra) 154 A.5 Poland 157 A.6 Bulgaria 157 A.7 Czechoslovakia 157 A.8 Czech Republic 158 A.9 Slovakia 158 A.10 Estonia 158 A.11 Hungary 159 A.12 Latvia 159 A.13 Lithuania 159 A.14 Romania 160 A.15 Slovenia 160 A.16 Cross-tabulation voting today in a referendum EU is good for Poland 160 A.17 Coefficients and multicollinearity diagnostics 161 A.18 Trust and distrust (Poland) 161 A.19 Attitudes towards EU membership in Croatia (2003 European Value Survey) 161 Figures 2.1 Positive image of the EC/EU in CEE before accession 25

x List of Tables and Figures 2.2 CEE citizens perceptions on the direction of the country 28 2.3 Personal financial situation in the next 12 months 29 2.4 Country economic situation in the next 12 months 30 2.5 Attitudes towards the EU in Poland (1994 2004) 44 3.1 Polish attitudes towards EU integration (1994 2010) 62 3.2 Benefit from EU membership (2008) 79 4.1 Voting For in the accession referendum 85

Acknowledgements This book draws on my doctoral and postdoctoral research. The Sussex European Institute at the University of Sussex and my DPhil supervisors, Aleks Szczerbiak and Alan Mayhew, deserve all my gratitude. I am also indebted to all those colleagues and professors who contributed their comments, suggestions, and encouragement during my doctoral years, in particular Paul Taggart and Paul Webb. Special thanks to Lucia Quaglia for her invaluable support and advice. I feel very lucky that I could visit as researcher the European University Institute and could benefit from the excellence of the intellectual environment and resources, while I could study and later work next to Mark Franklin and Cees van der Eijk, whose work and research inspire my research interest and questions, as the title of the book may suggest. In the United Kingdom, Clare McManus and, in Poland, Mikołaj Cześnik and Radosław Markowski are gratefully acknowledged for a fundamental part of my research: the Polish national data sets. I am indebted to the University Association for Contemporary European Studies (UACES) and the European Commission for the UACES Studentship that allowed my fieldwork in Poland, and the School of Politics and International Relations at the University of Nottingham for the funding to support my fieldwork. Paul Heywood and Lauren McLaren are thankfully acknowledged for their support when I prepared my proposal and Richard Whitaker and Ben Clements for reading and commenting on some sections of my work; thanks to Amber Stone-Galilee and Andrew Baird at Palgrave Macmillan, who supported and assisted me during the writing process. The most special thanks go to my family. Any failings or omissions are mine. xi

Abbreviations AWS CAP CBOS CCEB CEE CEEB CEORG CEPOL CT CVVM EB EC EP EU FIDESZ GRECO ISP LPR MEP NAFTA NATO OLAF PHARE PiS PNES PO PRM PSL SLD Akcja Wyborcza Solidarność (Solidarity Electoral Action) Common Agriculture Policy Centrum Badanii Opinii Społecznej (Public Opinion Research Centre) Candidate Countries Eurobarometer Central and Eastern Europe Central and Eastern Eurobarometer Central European Opinion Research Group European Police College Constitutional Treaty Centrum pro výzkum veŕejného mínéní (Public Opinion Research Centre) Eurobarometer European Community European Parliament European Union Fidesz Magyar Polgári Szövetség (Fidesz Hungarian Civic Union) Council of Europe Group of States against Corruption Instytut Spraw Publicznych (Institute of Public Affairs) Liga Polskich Rodzin (League of Polish Families) Member of the European Parliament North American Free Trade Agreement North Atlantic Treaty Organization European Anti-Fraud Office Pologne Hongrie: Aide à la reconstruction économique (Poland and Hungary: Assistance for the Reconstruction of the Economy) Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (Law and Justice) Polish National Election Study Platforma Obywatelska (Civic Platform) Partidul România Mare (Great Romania Party) Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (Polish Peasant Party) Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej (Democratic Left Alliance) xii

List of Abbreviations xiii SRP TARKI TEU UKIE UP UW Samoobrona (Rzeczpospolitej Polskiej) (Self-Defence (of the Polish Republic)) Társadalomkutatási (Social Research Centre) Treaty on European Union Urząd Komitetu Integracji Europejskiej (Office of the Committee for European Integration) Unia Pracy (Labour Union) Unia Wolności (Freedom Union)