Key Economic Indicators *

July 2017 Volume XXXIV Number 7 www.sasktrends.ca ISSN 0830-0143 DWELLINGS, FAMILIES, MARITAL STATUS AND LIVING ARRANGEMENTS Living arrangements are slow to change and recently released data from the 2016 census show that most of the long-standing trends continued from 2011 to 2016. The number of collective dwellings is increasing because of the growth in the number of specialized senior facilities for seniors. Measured by the number of persons, the average household increased in size between 2006 and 2016, reversing a long-standing downward trend. One-third of children are being raised in lone-parent families but the proportion increases to nearly 50% in North Battleford and Prince Albert. There are 2,140 adults living in a same-sex relationship with about one-third legally married. One-half of the men in the 20 to 24 age group and 20% of those 25 to 29 years of age were unmarried and still living at home. The proportion of women living at home is lower. CRIME RATE After several years of declines, the crime rate in the province is increasing. The reversal covers most kinds of crime and is evident in both Regina and Saskatoon. The Crime Severity Index also increased. Key Economic Indicators * Canada Employment (Aug) 1.4% (0.3%) 2.6% 2.1% Retail Sales (July) 8.9% 5.8% 2.4% 6.4% Urban Housing Starts (Aug) 33% 12% 45% 22% Consumer Prices (Aug) 1.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.4% Manufacturing Shipments (July) 9.9% 11.0% 11.4% 4.6% Farm Cash Receipts (Q1) 3.8% (4.7%) 4.8% 1.0% Average Hourly Wage Rates (Aug) 3.1% (0.3%) 2.7% 1.8% Population (Q1) 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 1.2% * percentage change from the same period a year ago; negative numbers in parenthesis

Page 2 July 2017 DWELLINGS, FAMILIES, MARITAL STATUS AND LIVING ARRANGEMENTS T he latest release from the 2016 Statistics Canada census has demographic statistics about how we live together and can be called living arrangements. Household and family statistics are complex, at least in part because living arrangements have become more fluid with blended and extended families. The key to understanding them is to know how Statistics Canada s defines a family and a household (see box) and to keep track of whether we are counting individuals, families, or households. Among the host of statistics on living arrangements, this article focuses on the number of collective dwellings, persons per household, family status, legal marital status, and the age of children living at home. Private vs. Collective Households Few people live in collective households but these figures are important because other census questions (employment and income for example) are not asked of those living in collective dwellings. In 2016, 2.5% of the provincial population lived in the 1,280 collective households in the province. As Figure 1 shows, one-half of the 27,720 persons living in collective households were in long term care facilities such as nursing homes and extended care facilities. Many of the remaining one-half live in Hutterite colonies. The population in collective dwellings, while still small, is growing quickly. In the five years from 2011 to 2016, for example, it has increased by an average of 2.7% per year compared with 1.2% per year for the population in private households. The reason is the growth is the number of specialized facilities for the increasing number of seniors in the province. The number of residents in these kinds of collective dwellings increased by an average of 2.9% per year from 2011 to 2016. Definitions There is a one-to-one correspondence between households and dwellings. The dwelling is the physical structure and the household refers to the individuals who live in it. A household is a person or group of persons (other than temporary or foreign residents) who occupy a private dwelling. A private dwelling is a separate set of living quarters which has a private entrance either directly from outside or from a common hall, lobby, vestibule or stairway leading to the outside. Apartments and most basement suites are therefore considered as separate dwellings. Collective dwellings includes long term care homes, prisons, households in Hutterite colonies, and communal buildings such as hotels. A family is a married couple (with or without children of either or both spouses), a couple living common-law (with or without children of either or both partners), or a lone parent of any marital status, with at least one child living in the same dwelling. A couple may be of the opposite or the same sex. Persons not living in families are called non-family persons, a category that includes unattached individuals those living alone or with non-relatives and persons living with relatives other than spouses or children. When two or more families or a family and an unattached individual live in the same household, the household is called a multi-family household. This can occur, for example, when a grandparent is living with a married child or a lone parent is living in her parent s household. Extended families are typically multifamily households. In 2016, there were, in Saskatchewan: a population of 1,098,355 individuals; a population of 1,070,555 individuals in 432,620 private dwellings/households; a population of 673,045 adults and 213,285 children in 302,260 census families; and 184,225 individuals living in a non-family arrangement. Hutterite colonies 6,255 Figure 1: Population Living in Collective Dwellings, 2016 (n = 27,720) All others 2,045 Compared with other provinces, a relatively high proportion of Saskatchewan residents live in collective dwellings. Compared with 2.5% for the province, the proportion is 2.9% in Manitoba, 2.2% in Alberta and 2.0% for Canada as a whole. The balance of this article deals exclusively with the 1,070,555 Saskatchewanians living in the 432,620 private households. Hotels and rooming houses 1,550 Corrections facilities 1,550 Group homes 2,965 Specialized seniors facilities 13,350

Page 3 July 2017 Population vis-à-vis Dwellings The distinction between the population and the number of households is important. The growth in the population is one of the factors affecting the increase in the number of dwellings but it is not the only one. The number of persons per household/dwelling shown in Figure 2 is a statistic that summarizes the net effect of growth rates in the population and the number of dwellings. From 1971 to 1981, the sharp decline in the average household size was mainly a consequence of children of the baby-boomers leaving the parental household and moving into their own dwelling. The net effect is an increase in the number of dwellings with no increase in population and, therefore, a decline in the number of persons per household. 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 Figure 2: Average Number of Persons per Private Dwelling, Saskatchewan From 1981 to 2006, the decline was the result of several factors. Firstly, a decline in the fertility rate meant that there were fewer children per family. The echo generation was aging and leaving the parental home and the resulting empty-nester households had fewer persons. An increasing number of seniors meant that there were more single-person households occupied by widows and widowers. Finally, an increase in the number of lone-parent families means smaller households because loneparent households have one fewer adults and because they tend to have fewer children than twoparent families. 2.3 2.1 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 In the most recent ten years from 2006 to 2016, the number of persons per household has stopped declining, increasing from 2.44 in 2006 to 2.46 in 2011 and 2.47 in 2016. This will be mainly because the cost of housing has made living alone more expensive for young adults so many are choosing to live in the parental home when they go to a post-secondary institution. An increase in the number of children is also a contributing factor. Nationally, the average number of persons per household Figure 3: Average Number of Persons per Private Dwelling, 2016 North 2.79 Saskatchewan 2.47 Alta 2.60 Lloydminster (SK) CA 2.67 Ont 2.56 Prince Albert CA 2.55 Man 2.54 Saskatoon CMA 2.51 Sask 2.47 Regina CMA 2.45 B.C. 2.42 Estevan CA 2.43 PEI 2.35 North Battleford CA 2.39 Nfld 2.34 Yorkton CA 2.32 NB 2.29 Weyburn CA 2.30 NS 2.26 Swift Current CA 2.28 Que 2.26 Moose Jaw CA 2.27 Canada 2.45 Rest of Saskatchewan 2.50 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9

Page 4 July 2017 is the same as in Saskatchewan and there is very little variation across the country. Figure 3 shows that, within the province, the largest households are typically in urban centres with a large Aboriginal population (Prince Albert and North Battleford, for example) and the smallest ones are in urban centres with a large proportion of seniors (Yorkton and Moose Jaw for example). Living with others 63,050 5.9% Figure 4: Family and Non-Family Status for Persons, Saskatchewan, 2016 Living alone 121,175 11.3% Couples without children 258,165 24.1% Family Status Figure 4 shows the family status for individuals in the province. One-half of residents are couples in a married or common-law relationship (47.2%) or lone parents (4.6%). The children of these adults constitute another 30.9% of residents. The remaining 17.2% of individuals live in what Statistics Canada calls non-family households, namely persons living alone or with non-relatives (e.g. students sharing an apartment), or with family members other than their spouse and children (e.g. cousins, siblings). Children < 15 213,285 19.9% Children 15+ 118,020 11.0% Lone parents 49,490 4.6% Couples with children 247,365 23.1% Compared with other provinces, Saskatchewan has a relatively large proportion of young children (19.9% compared with the national average of 16.9%) and a relatively small proportion of older children (11.0% vs. 13.1%) living in the parental home. Figure 5 shows the proportion of young children that are being raised by a lone parent. Saskatchewan is above the national average with 31% of children under 15 years of age in this kind of family compared with the national average of 27%. Within the province, children in lone-parent families constitute nearly one-half of all children in Prince Albert and North Battleford. This compares with fewer than a quarter in the southern cities of Swift Current and Estevan. Legal Marital Status Among the 882,665 adults in the province (15 years of age and older), the proportion who were legally married at the time of census was near 50% (see Figure 6). Another Figure 5: Proportion of Children (under 15 years of age) in Lone-Parent Families, 2016 Alta 24% Saskatchewan 31% B.C. 25% Prince Albert CA 45% Ont 25% North Battleford CA 43% Que 29% Moose Jaw CA 33% PEI 30% Yorkton CA 33% Man 30% Lloydminster CA 32% Sask 31% Regina CMA 29% Nfld 32% Weyburn CA 29% NB 33% Saskatoon CMA 26% North 34% Swift Current CA 24% NS 35% Estevan CA 23% Canada 27% Rest of Sask 34% 12% 16% 20% 24% 28% 32% 36% 40% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Page 5 July 2017 Figure 6: Legal Marital Status, Saskatchewan Population 15 Years of Age and Older, 2016 Married 437,875 49.6% Common law, never married 61,175 6.9% Single, never married 242,070 27.4% 23.0% Common law, previously married 21,380 2.4% Widowed 53,190 6.0% Separated 19,795 2.2% Divorced 47,180 5.3% 27.4% have never married to bring the total who are married or single to 77%. The remaining 23% are typically living common law or are widowed. Among adults in the province, 0.25% or the equivalent of 2,140 individuals are in a same-sex relationship. This is one-half the national average and the lowest among the provinces. One-third of these couples are legally married. From 2006 to 2016, the fastest growing marital status categories were: those living in a common-law relationship (an average annual increase of 3.7% per year); those divorced (2.1%); and those who are separated (1.6%). The number of widows and widowers declined. Figure 7 shows how legal marital status changes with age. Among teens, all but 2% are single but the proportion who are married or living in a common-law relationship increases to 20% among those 20 to 24 years of age and 51% among those 25 to 29 years of age. At that point, the proportion who are separated or divorced starts to increase 2% among those 25 to 29 years of age and 4% among those 30 to 34. By age 50, the number who have been previously married and are separated, divorced, or widowed outnumbers the number who are single 14.4% compared with 12.5%. In older age groups, one-half of those who are 80 to 84 years of age are married. Among those 85 and older, only one in three are married. Figure 8 shows that the proportion of Saskatchewan adults who are married or living common law (59.0%) is near the national average of 57.6%. The proportion is much lower in Quebec and much higher in Alberta. Within the province, marriage is most common in rural Saskatchewan (61.8%), Estevan, and Swift Current. It is the least common in Prince Albert and North Battleford. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 15 to 19 Figure 7: Legal Marital Status, Saskatchewan Population 15 Years of Age and Older, 2016 Single, never married 25 to 29 35 to 39 Married or Common Law 45 to 49 55 to 59 65 to 69 Separated, widowed, divorced 75 to 79 85 and over

Page 6 July 2017 Figure 8: Percent of Population Married or Common Law, 15 & older, 2016 Nfld 62.3% Estevan CA 62.3% Alta 59.9% Swift Current CA 61.6% NB 59.6% Weyburn CA 59.9% PEI 59.6% Yorkton CA 59.5% Sask 59.0% Lloydminster (SK) CA 58.9% B.C. 58.1% Saskatoon CMA 57.5% NS 57.6% Regina CMA 57.5% Man 57.4% Moose Jaw CA 57.0% Ont 57.3% North Battleford CA 55.0% Que 56.3% Prince Albert CA 53.1% North 54.5% Rest of Sask 61.8% Canada 57.6% Saskatchewan 59.0% 50% 53% 56% 59% 62% 65% 50% 53% 56% 59% 62% 65% Children at Home The number and age of children at home effects a number of social, demographic, and economic indicators including the type of dwellings, the demand for child care, and labour market participation for the parents. In 2016, there were 173,175 families with at least one children at home. Among these, a quarter had only older children at home, that is, children 18 years of age and older. This leaves approximately 130,000 with at least one younger child at home. Figure 9 shows that 57,100 had at least one child under the age of six at home. Most of these families will need some form of regular child care to allow the parent(s) to work or an irregular arrangement for other needs. In this age group, 22% of the families are headed by a lone parent, increasing the demand for child care. proportions among women are lower but are also increasing Summary We have only scratched the surface of the information that is available about family structures and living arrangements. Trends in living arrangements are slow to change and these data show that most of the long-standing trends have continued during the economic growth from 2011 to 2016. The number of collective dwellings is increasing because of the growth in the number of specialized seniors facilities. Figure 9: Number of Census Families by Age of Children at Home, 2016 In a similar number of families, all the children are of school age. Three in ten of these families are headed by a lone parent. Children 18 and over only 27.2 16.3 43.4 One emerging trend in living arrangements is the tendency of young adults to remain in the parental home much longer than in the past. Smaller families and physically larger dwellings enable this to happen and the cost of post-secondary education and housing makes it financially necessary in many cases. At least one child under 6 All children 6 to 17 44.8 37.5 12.3 57.1 16.2 53.7 Figure 10 shows that in 2016 the majority (52.9%) of men in the 20 to 24 age group and 19.5% of those 25 to 29 years of age were still living in the parental home. The Mix 14.2 18.9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 thousands

Page 7 July 2017 Measured by the number of persons, the average household increased in size between 2006 and 2016. This reverses a long-standing downward trend. Cities with a large proportion of seniors tend to have fewer people per household. One third of children are being raised in lone-parent families but the proportion increases to nearly 50% in North Battleford and Prince Albert. There are 2,140 adults living in a same-sex relationship with about one-third legally married. The most common kind of family in Saskatchewan is a married couple without children. The proportion of adults who are married or living common law is greater than 50% among those 25 to 84 years of age. In younger age groups, the majority are single; in older age groups, the majority are widows/widowers. Young adults, especially men, are staying in the parental home longer. One half of the men (52%) in the 20 to 24 age group and 20% of those 25 to 29 years of age were unmarried and living at home. Other releases from the census cover language and income. These will be covered in future issues of Sask Trends Monitor. Source: Statistics Canada 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Figure 10: Proportion of Young Adults Living at Home 0% 2006 2011 2016 2006 2011 2016 Men Women 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 CRIME RATE 10% outside the two cities. T he downward trend in crime that has been evident in the province for most of the last ten years has ended. Measured as the number of criminal code offences per 100,000 persons, the crime rate fell from 16,420 in 2003 to a low of 11,435 in 2014. This is the equivalent of a 2.2% drop per year. The reversal started in 2015 with a 5.7% increase and continued into 2016 with a further 3.9% increase. On a per capita basis, there were as many criminal code offences last year as in 2012 (see Figure 1). The increase in the last two years was not unique to Saskatchewan. In fact, the crime rate increased in seven of the ten provinces. Figure 2 shows that, in particular, the increase also occurred in our neighbouring provinces. In absolute numbers, about one-third of the 145,000 criminal code offences reported to the police last year occurred in Regina and Saskatoon and two-thirds outside the two major cities. The increase in the crime rate from 2014 to 2016 occurred in both cities and elsewhere in the province but it was most pronounced in Regina. From 2014 to 2016, crime rates increased by: 16% in the Regina metropolitan area; 8% in the Saskatoon metropolitan area; and Type of Crime Criminal code offences are classified into four categories: violent crimes (sometimes called crimes against the person); property crimes; traffic offences; and other crimes. Notes: These figures measure police-reported crime which is a count of the number of incidents reported to and verified by the police so they do not include the significant number of mostly minor incidents which are not reported to the police. Only criminal code offences are included. That is, we exclude the approximately 10,000 violations of federal statutes (most of which are drug related) that occur every year. We include the approximately 10,000 criminal code traffic offences (most of which are impaired driving). Violations of provincial and municipal laws are not included. Note that the incidence of some offenses (e.g. prostitution) is heavily influenced by policing practices. The crime rate is the number of offences per 100,000 population.

Page 8 July 2017 Figure 1: Criminal Code Offences, Including Traffic, Saskatchewan Figure 2: Criminal Code Offences per 100,000 population, Selected Provinces 160 thousands thousands 18 16 thousands 150 Criminal Code Offences (left scale) 16 14 140 12 130 14 10 120 12 8 110 100 Crime Rate (offences per 100,000 population, right scale) 10 6 4 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 90 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 8 Saskatchewan Alberta Manitoba Canada The increase from 2014 to 2016 occurred in three of the four categories but it is most pronounced in the property crime category (see Figure 4). From 2014 to 2016, the violent crime rate increased only slightly, growing by 3% from 1,974 to 2,028. There were increases in many of the subcategories including homicide, assault, and weapons offences. Over the same two years, the property crime rate increased by 16% and, once again, the increase occurred across many subcategories including: break-and-enters (17%); motor vehicle theft (27%); and theft under $5,000 (15%). The number of impaired driving offences, the main Figure 3: Criminal Code Offences per 100,000 population, Saskatchewan Figure 4: Criminal Code Offences per 100,000 population, Saskatchewan 19 17 thousands 9 8 7 thousands 15 6 5 13 4 11 3 2 9 1 7 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Regina Saskatoon Other Locations 0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Property Crimes Traffic Violent Crimes Other

Page 9 July 2017 subcategory of criminal code driving offenses fell by 8% from 2014 to 2016. In the other category, there was a 12% increase in the crime rate for offenses under the administration of justice (e.g. failing to appear in court, breach of probation) and a 28% increase in weapons offences. Crime Severity Index (CSI) The CSI is a useful statistical measure to compare crime rates in different areas and over different time periods because it takes into account the seriousness of the crime. The overall crime rate is heavily influenced by relatively minor offenses such as break-and-enters (10,071 in 2016) rather than sexual assault (1,196) or homicide (54). The CSI takes this into consideration using the average sentence in the court system as a measure of seriousness. The index sets the Canadian average in 2006 as 100. 225 200 175 150 125 100 Figure 5: Crime Severity Index Canada 2006 = 100 Regina Saskatoon Saskatchewan Using the CSI rather than the crime rate does not change crime rate trends for Saskatchewan but does affect their levels. Figure 5 shows the decline from 2006 to 2014 in the CSI followed by the sharp increase in 2015 and again in 2016. The two-year increase in the CSI (20%) is much more pronounced than the increase in the crime rate (6%). In effect, crime is as severe a problem in 2016 as it was in 2008. Regina and Saskatoon are following the provincial trend. Figure 6 shows the CSI for the larger communities in the province. The CSI is well above the provincial average in some larger communities including Prince Albert (228) and North Battleford (318). In southern urban centres such as Swift Current and Weyburn, the CSI is much lower. Summary Four observations stand out among the data reported here. Firstly, after years of decline, both the number of crimes and the crime rate is increasing. This increase is happening in other provinces as well. Secondly, the increase is widespread geographically with increases occurring in both major cities and in other parts of the province. The third observation is that the increase is occurring in most kinds of crime but is concentrated in property crimes. 75 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Using the Crime Severity Index (CSI) rather than the crime rate does not change the trends. In fact, the CSI is increasing more quickly than the crime rate. Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Table 052-0051, 052-0052, 252-0087 Figure 6: Crime Severity Index, Canada 2006=100, Selected Saskatchewan Communities, Municipal Only, 2014-16 Average North Battleford Prince Albert Yorkton Saskatoon Regina Estevan Moose Jaw Swift Current Weyburn Provincial Average 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Page 10 July 2017 HIGHLIGHTS OF CURRENT SASKATCHEWAN STATISTICS Retail Sales Sask Trends Monitor was expecting the provincial budget to have a dampening effect on consumer spending. In particular, the increase of the PST and the expansion to children s clothing, restaurant meals, construction labour, and other items was expected to slow spending. (It is too soon to know what the impact on insurance will be because those provisions haven t taken effect yet.) There are some indications that consumers are spending less on restaurant meals. On a year-over-year basis, sales are down 1.1% (after taxes) in the three months since the PST expanded compared with an increase of 2.1% in the previous three months. There is no such decline evident in overall retail sales sales have increased by an annual rate of 4.7% in the three months since the PST was expanded and increased compared with 4.2% in the four months before. 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Year-over-Year Change in Retail Sales PST increased & Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Labour Force and Employment Wholesale Trade Motor Vehicle Sales Consumer Price Inflation Manufacturing Shipments Value of Building Permits Cross Border Traffic Employment Insurance Recipients Precipitation Demand in the provincial labour market is effectively flat. Employment in the first eight months of 2017 has averaged 568,700 persons, the same as the first eight months of 2016. Employment has increased in Regina and Saskatoon and in the Yorkton/Melville part of the province; elsewhere it has dropped. Manufacturing, wholesale/retail trade, and professional/technical services are growing. Wholesalers are having a good year with an 8.4% increase in sales for the first seven months of the year. Machinery and equipment sales, in particular, are showing a 17.9% increase. Motor vehicle sales are surprisingly strong. Unit sales of motor vehicles were 4,903 in July, up 8.6% from July 2016 to bring the year-to-date increase to 11.0%. After three months of increases below 1%, the August inflation rate was 1.7%. An 8.7% increase in the cost of restaurant meals (mainly the addition of the PST) and a 5.9% increase in the price for alcohol and tobacco was the main reason. The value of shipments by Saskatchewan manufacturers is up 14.7% for the first eight months of the year with increases in both non-durable goods (18.8%) and durable goods (5.3%). In spite of a 16% decline in the value of building permits issued during July, the value of permits is still up 4% for the first seven months of the year. An 18% increase in residential permits and a 41% increase in commercial/industrial permits is offset by a 63% decline in the value of institutional/government projects. The number of Saskatchewanians who travelled abroad in July was 7.9% lower than in July 2016, continuing a downward trend. The number of USA visitors to the province is also falling. The number of employment insurance beneficiaries seems to have finally peaked. In July there were 17,870 individuals receiving regular benefits and with no other income. This is down 5.2% from a year ago and is the first year-over-year decline in three years. This was one of the driest summers on record. Precipitation in southern Saskatchewan totaled 28 mm compared with the long-term average of 107 mm. September has been almost as dry.

Page 11 July, 2017 Annual/monthly totals or averages Percentage changes: from from 2017 Employment and the Labour Force 2014 2015 2016 2017 July Aug year to Average Average Average Aug 2017 2016 date Labour force Employed 571 574 568 573-0.3% -0.3% 0.0% status (15 and Unemployed 23 30 38 43 4.9% 1.4% 3.8% older) in Not in the labour force 258 257 262 263 0.0% 3.3% 2.4% thousands Total 852 861 869 878 0.1% 0.8% 0.9% Participation rate (%) 69.7% 70.1% 69.8% 70.1% 0.0%pp -1.0%pp -0.6%pp Employment rate (%) 67.0% 66.6% 65.4% 65.3% -0.3%pp -1.1%pp -0.8%pp Unemployment rate (%) 3.8% 5.0% 6.3% 6.9% 0.3%pp 0.1%pp 0.2%pp Average hourly wage rate for paid workers $25.32 $25.95 $26.82 $26.32 0.5% -0.3% 0.1% Unadjusted (actual) total 571 574 568 573-0.3% -0.3% 0.0% Seasonally adjusted total 571 574 568 568 0.0% -0.2% 0.1% Employment Men 312 311 308 316 0.3% -0.6% -0.4% (000) Women 259 263 260 257-1.0% 0.0% 0.5% 15 to 24 years of age 86 84 80 85-2.8% -5.2% -2.8% 25 to 39 years of age 188 193 196 194-0.1% -0.9% 0.4% 40 to 54 years of age 175 175 169 171 1.9% 2.3% -1.2% 55 and older 122 122 124 123-1.5% 0.7% 3.0% Full time 473 473 467 480-0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Part time 98 101 102 93-1.2% -1.7% 0.1% Multiple job holders 41 43 43 41-0.7% 3.8% 5.4% Agriculture 44 41 41 39 1.3% -12.2% -9.6% Forestry, mining, oil/gas, utilities 34 33 32 32 1.3% -0.9% -5.3% Employment Construction 57 56 51 56 0.7% 2.0% -2.1% by industry Manufacturing 29 26 26 29 1.0% 13.1% 12.0% group Transportation, warehousing 29 30 28 28-2.7% 2.2% 2.2% (000) Wholesale and retail trade 84 84 88 92 0.3% 2.9% 5.8% Finance, insurance, real estate 30 31 29 28 1.1% 3.6% -7.5% Professional, technical services 26 25 28 30-3.9% 0.3% 13.9% Management and support services 13 14 13 15-7.0% 11.4% 7.2% Health and social services 73 78 79 75-3.3% -8.0% -3.0% Education services 43 44 41 31 1.0% 3.7% 0.6% Accommodation and food services 36 38 38 39 2.1% -2.3% -4.8% Information, culture, recreation 16 19 20 23 2.7% 4.1% 2.4% Personal and household services 25 26 25 25-0.8% -3.5% -4.7% Public administration 30 29 29 31 2.3% 0.0% 1.0% Employment Paid, private sector 324 330 325 339 0.0% 0.5% 1.4% by category Paid, public sector 136 140 139 132 0.7% -0.6% -0.2% (000) Self employed and unpaid family 111 104 105 102-2.2% -2.7% -3.9% Aboriginal (15 to 64 years) off Reserve 43 43 44 45-0.4% -0.9% 5.2% Non-Aboriginal (15 to 64 years) 499 503 496 501-0.2% -0.7% -1.0% Employment Born in Canada (15 years and older) 496 499 484 484-0.5% -0.6% -0.1% (3 month Immigrated in the last 5 years (15+) 26 26 29 28-3.4% -10.7% -0.6% moving Immigrated 5+ years ago (15+) 34 36 45 52 3.4% 8.1% 3.4% average in Regina CMA 137 138 139 141-0.6% -0.8% 1.1% thousands) Saskatoon CMA 169 170 168 175 0.7% 2.0% 1.1% Southeast (except Regina) 45 46 44 43-1.2% -5.3% -5.8% Swift Current/Moose Jaw region 53 54 53 51-1.9% -4.2% -1.9% West central (except Saskatoon) 28 29 27 29 2.5% 5.0% -0.4% East central (incl. Yorkton) 39 38 37 40-0.7% 6.1% 7.2% P.A./Northern Saskatchewan 100 100 99 97-1.5% -3.3% -3.0% from from 2017 Paid Workers and Weekly Earnings 2014 2015 2016 2017 May June year to Average Average Average June 2017 2016 date Number of Salaried 173.0 169.6 171.4 174.3 0.1% -1.9% -0.6% paid workers Hourly rated and part time 270.6 273.7 268.6 273.3 3.1% -1.0% -1.8% (000) Other (including commission) 40.9 40.8 38.8 42.3 2.5% 1.1% 3.8% Avg earnings/wk (incl overtime) Total 484.4 484.0 478.7 489.9 2.0% -1.1% -0.9% All paid employees $975.24 $981.61 $988.41 $996.70 0.7% 1.5% 2.0% Adjusted for inflation (constant $2002) $757.70 $750.76 $747.85 $744.36 0.7% 1.1% 0.9% Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey and Survey of Employment Payroll and Hours pp = change in percentage points

Page 12 July 2017 Annual/monthly Totals or Averages Percentage changes: from from 2017 Wholesale Trade ($ millions) 2014 2015 2016 2017 June July year to Total Total Total July 2017 2017 date Food, beverage, tobacco products $1,852 $1,603 $1,615 $155 13.3% 7.3% -3.3% Farm products $1,738 $2,021 $1,634 $71-31.2% -10.9% 12.2% Agricultural supplies $8,269 $10,596 $9,023 $739-29.3% 8.7% 3.9% Machinery and equipment $8,224 $7,819 $8,306 $708-6.6% 13.6% 17.9% Building materials $2,169 $1,956 $2,281 $224-4.8% 19.8% 8.8% All other wholesale sales $4,452 $4,144 $4,017 $356 2.6% 10.3% 0.2% Wholesale sales total $24,851 $26,535 $25,261 $2,099-15.7% 10.9% 8.4% Wholesale sales (seasonally adjusted) $24,851 $26,535 $25,261 $2,393 9.9% 11.9% 8.9% from from 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 June July year to Total Total Total July 2017 2017 date New motor vehicle dealers $4,005 $3,856 $3,828 $382-5.7% 22.5% 12.1% Used vehicles, recreational vehicles, and auto parts $1,106 $1,083 $1,110 $103-18.2% 4.2% 0.1% Service stations $3,054 $2,496 $2,441 $225 3.2% -0.6% 8.6% Furniture and home furnishings stores $492 $496 $528 $34-12.1% -19.2% -4.3% Electronics and appliance stores $493 $492 $493 $33-16.2% -7.7% -4.8% Building materials, home centres, garden supplies $1,187 $1,232 $1,253 $136 29.1% 9.0% -3.3% Health and personal care stores $982 $988 $1,220 $100-3.5% 3.5% 5.7% Clothing, footwear, accessories $656 $668 $699 $52-10.2% 0.0% -0.9% Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores $403 $415 $466 $36 7.9% -0.7% -9.4% Grocery stores $2,761 $2,696 $2,752 $247 2.3% 0.9% -1.2% Beer, wine and liquor stores $680 $737 $767 $77 0.6% 0.5% -0.5% General merchandise (incl dept stores) $3,106 $3,219 $3,225 $293-9.7% 5.0% 7.2% $348 $341 $352 $31-14.7% 8.8% 6.4% Retail Trade ($ millions) Vehicle related Household related Personal Other Other and Miscellaneous Retailers Retail sales total $19,274 $18,719 $19,135 $1,749-3.2% 5.8% 4.4% Retail sales (seasonally adjusted) $19,274 $18,719 $19,135 $1,660 1.3% 5.9% 4.6% Motor Vehicle Unit Sales (number of units sold) from from 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 June July year to Total Total Total July 2017 2017 date Passenger cars 12,293 10,631 9,266 794-9.8% -4.8% -3.9% Trucks/SUVs/vans/commercial vehicles 46,141 40,426 42,833 4,185-8.3% 11.6% 14.4% All vehicles 58,434 55,273 52,099 4,979-8.6% 8.6% 11.0% International Merchandise Trade (millions of Canadian $) from from 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 June July year to Total Total Total July 2017 2017 date Merchandise Imports $12,135 $10,389 $8,990 $945-12.6% 24.3% 20.6% Merchandise Exports $35,277 $32,532 $26,762 $2,116-2.9% 5.6% 14.1% Net International Merchandise Trade $23,142 $22,143 $17,772 $1,171 6.8% -5.9% 10.1% from from 2017 Consumer Price Indices (2002=100) 2014 2015 2016 2017 July Aug year to Average Average Average Aug 2017 2016 date Purchased from stores 137.2 143.1 143.8 144.7 0.2% -0.1% -2.2% Food Purchased from restaurants 139.9 143.4 145.8 158.9 0.3% 8.7% 5.7% Food total 138.1 143.4 144.5 148.6 0.2% 2.2% -0.1% Clothing and footwear 97.1 98.8 98.6 101.0 1.9% 3.0% 0.7% Transportation 122.4 120.1 121.8 124.9 0.8% 2.3% 2.7% Shelter, owned or rented 154.4 158.7 160.5 163.6 0.4% 1.9% 1.7% Household operations and furnishings 110.5 112.4 114.4 113.3 0.9% -1.7% -2.0% Health and personal care 117.9 119.7 121.3 124.2 0.9% 2.0% 1.2% Recreation, education, and reading 109.2 111.4 111.6 113.8 0.6% 2.1% 1.8% Alcohol and tobacco 158.4 161.8 166.3 176.0 0.1% 5.9% 4.1% Saskatchewan all items 128.7 130.8 132.2 134.7 0.6% 1.7% 1.1% Regina all items 129.7 131.5 132.9 135.6 0.7% 1.8% 1.2% Saskatoon all items 128.6 131.0 132.6 135.4 0.7% 1.9% 1.2% Sources: Statistics Canada (retail/wholesale trade, consumer price index, motor vehicle sales), Strategis International Trade Database (international trade

Page 13 July 2017 Annual/monthly Totals or Averages Percentage changes: date of most from from same most 2014 2015 2016 recent previous period year to recent Agriculture period period last year date period Farm cash Crops $9,834 $11,197 $11,409 $3,741 24.1% -7.5% -7.5% receipts Livestock $2,711 $2,644 $1,993 $462-21.4% -17.3% -17.3% ($ millions) Program payments $612 $585 $667 $286-33.7% 158.6% 158.6% Q1 Total cash receipts $13,156 $14,426 $14,069 $4,489 11.3% -4.7% -4.7% Farm product Crops 104.4 118.1 122.5 118.4 0.9% -7.4% -9.4% price index Livestock and products 197.8 224.1 177.4 191.0 2.3% -0.7% -7.1% June (2007=100) All products 121.0 136.9 134.1 131.4 0.6% -8.3% -9.2% Canola ($/tonne) $408 $444 $454 $488-4.0% 2.1% 5.5% Market Field peas ($/tonne) $10.10 $8.33 $8.84 $8.31 2.5% -11.4% -10.0% Prices 700-800 lb. feeder steers $/lb. 210.0 257.2 188.9 211.9-1.2% 12.8% -7.5% June Index 100 hog prices, $/100 kg $207 $158 $149 $201 16.6% 7.9% 4.5% Resource Production, Consumption, Price Crude oil production (000 m³) 29,891 28,224 26,732 2,351 3.3% 10.3% 4.7% June Natural gas production (mm³) 5,825 5,794 5,358 453 3.9% 2.7% -3.1% July Production & Potash (000 tonnes): Canada 10,955 11,420 10,768 893-10.1% 13.5% 20.9% July volumes Uranium (000 kg): Canada 9,780 13,279 14,133 410-79.4% -65.5% -0.8% July Motor gasoline sales (000 m³) 2,844 2,780 2,857 142-10.0% -3.2% -3.5% June West Texas interm. crude oil US$/bbl $93.26 $48.69 $49.34 $48.04 3.0% 7.4% 21.3% Aug Edmonton par crude oil C$/m3 $591 $359 $384 $394 1.4% 5.6% 25.5% Aug Regular gas ( /litre) Regina retail 121.1 100.1 91.3 95.9 3.0% -0.9% 6.0% Aug Prices Regular gas ( /litre) Saskatoon retail 121.0 100.6 91.2 95.8 2.4% -1.0% 6.8% Aug Uranium long-term price US$/lb. $46.46 $46.29 $39.00 $31.50-1.6% -17.1% -21.5% Aug Potash (2002=100) 100.7 114.0 99.3 83.5-4.7% -8.3% -19.1% July Natural gas, Alberta spot market price (dollars per gigajoule) $4.00 $2.42 $1.83 $1.83-23.4% 0.5% 58.5% July Manufacturing Sales ($ millions) Non-durable Food products $3,210 $4,079 $363 1.9% 6.6% 16.2% Goods Chemical products $2,253 $2,240 $1,886 $103-48.6% 20.9% Other non-durable goods $3,968 $372 8.4% Total non-durable goods manufacturing $10,386 $9,419 $9,829 $838-6.9% 16.5% 18.8% Durable Machinery manufacturing $1,441 $1,135 $1,135 $72-8.6% 4.9% 4.9% Goods Fabricated metal products $834 $685 $662 $62-5.9% 7.2% 0.1% Other durable goods $3,095 $2,788 $2,516 $188-15.3% -5.7% 6.8% Total durable goods manufacturing $5,371 $4,608 $4,313 $321-12.2% -1.2% 5.3% All manufacturing groups $15,757 $14,027 $14,141 $1,160-8.4% 11.0% 14.7% Capital Construction Price Index Structural products 108.1 109.0 111.2 116.7 0.3% 4.6% 4.9% Sask Trends Architectural products 106.2 109.3 111.8 116.5-0.1% 3.8% 3.5% Monitor Mechanical products 106.2 109.2 112.2 113.7-0.2% 1.4% 1.5% Capital Electrical products 104.4 105.6 105.7 109.5-0.1% 3.7% 1.7% Construction Equipment and operating 119.5 106.1 101.0 104.2-1.0% 0.5% 7.1% Price Index Total material costs 108.9 107.9 108.4 112.1-0.2% 2.8% 3.7% (2010=100) Labour costs 116.7 120.6 127.3 122.4-0.5% -2.3% -3.8% Total material and labour 112.8 114.2 117.9 117.3-0.4% 0.1% -0.4% Construction Residential Urban (population > 10,000) 7,152 4,334 3,877 547 31% 12% 9% Aug housing starts Rural 1,104 817 898 62-72% -16% -16% Q1 (# of units) Provincial total 8,257 5,149 4,775 802-31% 8% 8% Q1 Residential $1,574 $1,174 $1,025 $110.0-37% 4% 18% Value of Industrial & commercial $877 $1,033 $593 $57.5-49% -11% 41% building Institutional & government $218 $676 $353 $4.0-85% -88% -63% permits Provincial total $2,669 $2,883 $1,971 $171.5-45% -16% 4% July ($ millions) Regina $706 $795 $681 $74.3-40% -25% 1% Saskatoon $1,100 $1,246 $867 $58.9-48% -10% 0% Other provincial $862 $842 $422 $38.4-50% -5% 18% Sources: Statistics Canada, Saskatchewan Agriculture, CMHC, Sask Economy July July

Page 14 July, 2017 Population and Migration Interprovincial migration International migration Natural growth Annual/monthly Totals or Averages Percentage changes: date of most from from same most 2014 2015 2016 recent previous period year to recent data period last year date data Into Saskatchewan 18,155 18,686 16,934 4,113 55% -6% -6% Out of Saskatchewan 20,707 23,088 22,578 5,508 46% -4% -4% Net flow -2,552-4,402-5,644-1,395 Immigrants 11,826 12,521 14,860 3,820 31% -6% -6% Emigrants 1,060 1,066 1,068 260 47% 0% 0% Net flow 10,766 11,455 13,792 3,560 30% -7% -7% Q1 Births 15,606 15,838 16,114 3,953 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% Deaths 9,432 9,530 9,660 2,516-0.4% 2.0% 2.0% Net natural growth 6,174 6,308 6,454 1,437 3.2% 0.2% 0.2% Population at end of period (000) 1,127.8 1,141.1 1,158.3 1,161.4 0.3% 1.4% 1.4% Canadian Commodity Price Indices (2010=100) Raw materials price index 117.6 94.1 89.8 95.6-0.6% 4.5% 13.5% Industrial products price index 111.3 110.3 110.1 111.8-1.5% 1.3% 3.9% July Other Selected Time Series Cross border traffic (000 of person-trips) Airport takeoffs and landings Sask residents, same day auto 175 131 122 11.7 14.7% -6.4% -6.3% Sask residents, 2+ days, auto 190 150 141 20.0 110.3% 2.0% 2.4% Sask residents returning, all modes of travel, all countries 613 488 438 34.9 56.0% -7.9% -7.0% Arrivals by out-of-country visitors 132 120 117 17.2 16.0% -2.6% -9.7% Saskatoon 91,160 94,990 92,528 8,483 5.0% -3.9% 1.2% Regina 58,168 57,382 52,202 4,982 1.3% -1.0% -0.7% Restaurant and tavern receipts ($M) $1,765 $1,818 $1,878 $164 3.1% 0.0% 0.5% June Regular employment insurance beneficiaries 10,027 12,700 18,660 17,870 35.8% -5.2% 8.7% July Job vacancies (excl government), 3 month moving average 9,000 6,425 6,025 6,800 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% May Consumer bankruptcies 1,105 1,155 1,421 123-14.0% -2.4% -1.4% Business and farm bankruptcies 77 85 91 10-53.3% 0.0% 4.2% June Prime rate 3.00% 2.78% 2.70% 2.95% 0.00%pp 0.25%pp 0.06%pp Aug Financial TSE composite index 14,712 14,270 14,194 15,212 0.4% 4.2% 10.5% Aug statistics Exchange rate (US ) 90.6 78.3 75.5 79.3 0.7% 3.1% 0.5% Aug Weather (data based on the twelve months from September to August) Precipitation in mm Mean daily temperature Annual/monthly Totals or Averages Changes date of Sep-2013 Sep-2014 Sep-2015 from from YTD most to Aug- to Aug- to Aug- Aug Aug Aug from recent 2014 2015 2016 2017 Normals 2016 2014-15 data Estevan/Regina/Swift Current 441 301 503 17-63% -55% -44% Yorkton/Saskatoon/Lloydminster 421 412 427 36-8% -37% -18% Prince Albert/La Ronge 542 486 514 18-70% -75% -6% Estevan/Regina/Swift Current +1.7 +4.1 +6.0 +18.0-0.0ºC +0.1ºC -1.5ºC Aug Yorkton/Saskatoon/Lloydminster +0.5 +3.0 +4.5 +17.1 +0.4ºC +0.3ºC -1.2ºC Prince Albert/La Ronge -1.5 +1.0 +2.9 +16.9 +0.9ºC +0.5ºC -1.2ºC pp = change in percentage points Sources: Statistics Canada, Industry Canada, Transport Canada, Environment Canada July June Sask Trends Monitor is published monthly by QED Information Systems Inc. Reproduction of the newsletter in whole or part is prohibited unless credit is given to Sask Trends Monitor. Data are obtained from what are considered reliable sources but are subject to periodic, retroactive, revisions. Additional detail about the sources and methodology is available on request. Comments on and suggestions for the material or the articles are always welcome. Subscription information is available from: Subscription Prices: ATTN: Douglas H. Elliott Annual electronic subscription: $210/year + GST Sask Trends Monitor Annual paper subscription: $275/year + GST 444 19th Avenue Regina, Saskatchewan Phone: (306) 522-5515 S4N 1H1 Facsimile: (306) 522-5838 Website: www.sasktrends.ca Email: sasktrends@sasktel.net