Western Balkans is of importance for the European Union

Western Balkans is of importance for the European Union The concept of Western Balkans was launched for the first time in the Thessaloniki Summit in 2003.The high-level meeting of the European Council confirmed that all the countries involved in the Stabilization and Association Process (SAP), were potential candidates for EU membership. These countries were: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro, Croatia, Kosovo and Serbia, even though they were not all involved in the geographical notion "Western Balkans". In the closing statement to this crucial meeting, the Greek Prime Minister at that time Georgios Papandreou, whose country had the EU Presidency, emphasized that full membership of this region would be realized by 2014. Greek Prime Minister's statement created an atmosphere of optimism for the countries of this part of the Balkans, which were still outside of the European Union and aspired to be part of the "Common European Family. But, unfortunately, the "prediction" of the Greek Prime Minister was not realized. The only state that "respected" this period of time prediction was Croatia, which joined the European Union in 2013. The other countries of the region were disappointed, and the disappointment further intensified, as the time past. The newly elected President of the European Council Jean Claude Juncker, stated that there would not be any EU enlargement during his term of office, at least until 2019, or even finally... We are properly allowed to ask questions or refer to the questions of some analysts on this subject: Why this unfinished business of the European Union in the Western Balkans? Are these hesitations of Brussels related to the developments within the European Union or have uncertainties happened due to deformities of democratic standards, wrong social and political models followed by the

countries of Western Balkans during difficult transitions, after the collapse of the communist system? 3. Will the region of the Western Balkans still remain under the seismic shakings of geopolitical changes? 4. Will the Western Balkans remain a "Strategic limbo" close to Europe: neither truly in, nor truly out - as many prominent European analysts have determined? First, I am of the opinion that following Croatia accession in 2013, the European Union has gone from the level of political hesitation for new members from Western Balkans countries, to the "freezing" level of this process or further, to the stage of blocking, unfortunately to almost complete. Secondly, on the other hand, the internal developments in the Western Balkans itself prove, testify again uncertainty and tensions, created as a result of political vibrations, ups and downs of economic development, the return of the autocratic forms in governing the state, offering the no substantial reforms. All these certainly have, to some extent, influenced in applying hesitant or blocking policies of the European Union, in the integration process of this region of Balkan. We also have to mention some significant events, which have had a particular impact on the policies, pursuit by Brussels for its enlargement by the countries of the Western Balkans: First, Russian intervention in Ukraine, annexation of Crimea from Russia, which created a bipolar tense situation between the EU on one side, and Russia on the other hand, while the USA showed an "absent" or somewhat stay distance attitude from this aggressive development. This event turned back almost completely the Cold War reminiscences. Second, the wave of emigration towards Europe, mainly to Germany, caused new parameters of geostrategic and geopolitical dimension and

very difficult political, financial and economic situation, totally engaging thus European Union in managing and overcoming this dramatic situation. I am of the opinion, that the waves of this massive emigration aimed at attacking the United Europe, starting with its dissolution, by unfortunately using human disasters in war fronts in Syria, Afghanistan, etc., out of our continent. Third, the leave of Great Britain from the European Union cannot be considered as a sudden or "accidental" phenomenon. Personally I do not support the extremist views of Euro sceptics, but I do not exclude the fact, that a new case can occur and can cause significant consequences within the European Union. I also think that Brexit has caused evident problems in the Western Balkan countries, as well as uncertainties for their future. Questions are raised in this region whether the leave of Great Britain will be accompanied by new ones. This has created the psychology of waiting and feeling uncertain. Fourth, the new situation in Turkey, the so-called "coup d'etat", the transformation of this country headed by Erdogan to a country profoundly autocratic and antidemocratic, raises questions about its relationship with EU and security in the region, for its further and unexpected developments despite the fact that Turkey is NATO member. The Turkish developments are expected to affect the region of Western Balkans, and beyond. In this background it is of importance to observe National Developments, inter-balkan relationship and affinity with the neighbors of the Balkans. As we above mentioned, Brexit and the hesitating policy of Brussels for enlargement, find Western Balkan countries in a waiting and uncertainty position regarding their European future. Fatigue is felt, due to the time lost, for the years waiting for their membership and by the prolonged "game" played on them, through the

model of standards, offered to these countries, by the European Union whereas for other countries like Romania, Bulgaria and even the Baltic countries and so forth, there are accepted only geostrategic criteria or requirements, installing a "sanitary belt" along the entire western length of Russia. One may ask: Why this differentiated policy for the Western Balkans, which remains a space that has suffered wars and following Ukraine it remains Russia's target of creating instability in unstable southern Europe? In principle, we all know that the criteria for the European Union enlargement are supposed to be universal standards, common for all aspiring countries. This "differentiated integration" policy has become a contentious matter in Balkans, where it is considered to be a double-edged sword: on the positive side, the policy is "flexible", supposedly allowing each country to meet accession standards at its own pace. On the negative side, however, this policy is perceived as unpredictable at best and as inconsistent and discriminatory at worst - noted by known analysts on European issues. Delays on time, hesitations or blocking of the European Union enlargement, could be one of the reasons that the political elites in this region have been oriented by the so-called model of "autocratic democracy", camouflaging somewhat the parameters of antidemocratic governing, distancing from the principles of democratic liberalism, distorting the principles of state of law, tending to transfer it into a state of financial oligarchy. This brings about the so-called "new isolation" imposed by the lack of decision-making in Brussels for the membership of these countries in the region, but in reality it is also a tendency that comes from the reminiscences and genetic predisposition of this political class, which still exists in these countries as new democracies coming from dictatorial regimes, only a quarter century ago. I think that these trends of political elites in this region of Balkan should become object of analysis from representatives of the EU, not

simply through delegation and requirements for standards, injected by Brussels for new membership. Regarding the relations with abroad, there are noticed Russia's attempts for a presence in Balkans, in more sophisticating forms. Putin considers the Western Balkans as "a sphere of particular interest", especially after intervention in Ukraine. He relies on the so-called "historical Slavic legacies" in the relationship with Serbia, Macedonia and Bulgaria, while aims at approaching the warm Adriatic waters, provoking Montenegro. Former Prime Minister Djukanovic, who resigned from his post at the last elections in this country, declared that the cause of his resignation was the attempt to execute him by Russian and Serbian intelligence services. Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic and other senior Serbian leaders consider the relations with Russia as priority compared to Brussels whenever its interest is violated in the dialogue with Kosovo, or in the relations with other countries of the region. Serbia has signed long - term agreements with Russia in the field of defense and armaments, as well as with intelligent services of the two countries. It has already become clear that Turkey, a NATO member, is not any more confident in its attitude towards Europe and the European Union. Ankara is more intensively focused towards Western Balkans. It is not by accident that Erdogan's stated "Kosovo is Turkey" in his visit to Pristina, a statement repeated in Ankara, some days ago, by a prominent member of the government cabinet. A few years ago, Vuk Jeremic, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Serbia of that time, declared that if Brussels continues to have skeptical attitude towards us, regarding the integration process, it would be better for us to create a group of Western Balkan states, including Turkey. Ankara has shown and still shows a particular interest for the region of Sandzak in Serbia and Bosnia, mainly for the Muslim population. Considering the good relations in years between Albania and Turkey, the latter is considered by Tirana as a strategic country of particular importance. Even more in 2013, the newly elected Prime Minister showed an unprecedented gesture in the history of relations between the two

countries. Albanian Prime Minister Rama, together with the members of the future government, without being constituted yet in the Albanian parliament, paid a visit to Ankara, where he "blessed" the new government in the presence of Erdogan. Currently, Albania is facing intensive demands for removing from the country the Albanian sympathizers of Gulen, the current enemy of the Turkish President Erdogan. I think this will create other complicated internal problems, as well as in the relations with this country. It cannot be excluded by Turkish side, the possibility of even interfering against Muslim communities in our region, mainly due to religious ideology effects. Despite the political and social drama that Turkey is currently experiencing, its clear and evident turn towards an Erdoganian autocracy and dictatorship, we can say that again unfortunately, the current political Balkanic elites still consider Ankara, look at it with sympathy and many of them admire the political profile of President Erdogan. Considering long term personal experience with the Western Balkans, I think that the relations between Tirana and Belgrade are of special importance. They constitute the axis of the developments in in our region. Recently, prominent personalities of the two countries have paid visits after many years of silence. Mutual visits of the two Prime Ministers, Rama and Vucic, have created a positive situation, not only between the two countries, but also in the whole region. On the other hand, it is important that these visits have to penetrate into the substance of economic relations, trade, free movement of citizens and goods of the two countries, culture, tourism, etc. There has been criticism regarding these high-level visits, even by important officials of Kosovo itself, since there has been discussed important issues of Kosovo, at a time when Pristina has been dialoguing itself with Serbia for solving the problems inherited from the past.

This has been considered as a game of Belgrade to avoid intermediation and presence of the European Union in these talks, especially on major issues such as North Kosovo, Trepca mine, etc. When I was Ambassador of my country in Belgrade, in one of my meetings with Ivica Dacic, then the Prime Minister of Serbia, he made a proposal somewhat strange : Let Tirana, Belgrade and Pristina create a triangle for discussing and solving all the issues among us and other ones, connected with them. I certainly rejected this proposal, which was a direct test of Serbian Prime Minister for avoiding Brussels from the scene, from Kosovo and Serbia talks and self-regulate the so-called geostrategic defects of the West and Brussels itself. This proposal aimed also to create cracks in the relations between Tirana and Pristina. It is important that the cooperation initiated between the two countries, Albania and Serbia, has to avoid also the spirit of aggressive nationalism that has dominated in centuries the relations between the two countries, but there can be found again repeated cases, being used by policy, particularly for internal electoral effects and for attracting the attention from the difficult domestic problems, governments are facing. Meanwhile, the countries of the Western Balkans are facing numerous economic and social difficulties. Albania is facing high unemployment level which amounts to 27.3 per cent in a population of 3 million inhabitants, whereas this figure does not include the fact that 67 thousand Albanians have asked asylum in the EU in 2015. It is of very serious concern the fact that the country is being "usurped" by cannabis. Problem is also the presence of gangs that cultivate this plant and are trafficking the strong drugs from Afghanistan and Turkey, using the channels of the Gulf of Otranto to reach Italy and other markets in the Western Europe. Albanian government has to seriously combat this very great problem, which may destabilize the country and the whole region. Currently, Brussels has strongly insisted for the special importance of the reforms in the judiciary system, fight against corruption and organize crime.

In Kosovo unemployment rate is still higher. Unemployment level amounts to 32.9 per cent, and for 30 old young people this unemployment rate reaches 60 per cent. Macedonia has been facing a political crisis for a long time. This country is the weakest point in the whole Western Balkan and it risks of being dissolved because the Macedonian political elite fails to implement the Ohrid agreement. A survey conducted by Friedrich Ebert Stiftung Foundation in Skopje stated that 53 per cent of young people in Macedonia want to leave the country. In Serbia there are 741,000 registered unemployed, which means that the unemployment rate in this country amounts to 29.2 percent. Bosnia Hercegovina raises the problem of changing their constitution, they want it to be adapted to the process of membership. Dodik, the President of Serbska Republica, asks for a referendum, so as to create an incident for separating this territory from Bosnia Hercegovina. This project is supported in silence by Moscou. As it may be understood quite clearly, the common denominator of the Western Balkans countries on the eve of the EU progress report, is not encouraging them. The difficult economic situation is a powerful gravity that shifts attention from implementation of reforms recommended by Brussels. According to our opinion the solution is urgent and EU has to be much more present in this region. Berlin process positively influences the spirit of cooperation among the countries of the Western Balkans for joint projects, which are still at minimal levels, but they will influence to materialize the multilateral and bilateral relations among them. This process should affect to restore confidence in the European capital, aiming at starting serious investments in these countries, out of hesitations and lack of confidence for investing in the region. Another question: will the Western Balkans remain a "frozen region of Europe, or there will be other destinations for it?

This is a question still present in the countries of this region. As mentioned, it causes uncertainty and undesirable opportunities of these countries. Regarding the situation in Western Balkans, we may give some opinions instead of conclusions, concerning the recent developments. Brexit phenomenon has to influence and affect Brussels, not in terms of blocking EU enlargement, but the opposite. Brussels has to leave the bureaucratic schemes and practices in relations with the countries of Western Balkans and stay distance from formal formulas, which in many cases intend "to keep warm" these countries, or "gain time" for postponing new membership. Official representatives of the EU have to be much more present physically in these countries to closely look and feel the difficult reality and really help their authorities. Communication only through official reports and contacts of both parties do not bring much progress, they only deepen the distance and conviction for enlargement of EU. This somewhat bureaucratic communication gives the impression of a "political liturgy" without promoting development and progress. Regarding this issue, Brussels has to consider the emergent needs of these countries, stability and security of the region, stability and security for their economic, social development as well as real democratic standards. In addition to more frequent contacts with state representatives of Western Balkan, representatives of Brussels have to communicate with the civil society of these countries which, is almost atrophied in most cases, due to the lack of independent opinion in protecting democracy and progressive development of the country towards the European integration. In the countries mentioned above the civil society is almost averted from the political power. We may conclude that Western Balkans is important for EU, while European Union does not consider it an emergent case for it accession, a

geostrategic emergency, because of other priorities in its agenda and because currently Brussels is facing the consequences in its internal structure, due to the leave of Great Britain from European Union. On the other side, we have to attentively and closely observe the changes in the global policy after the new elections in the United States. I think that, the situation at present has to be considered in two directions: First, will there be a new balance of Great Powers, which was excluded as a possibility after the Fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of Soviet Union? Second, will there be a policy review of the USA European Union relations after the new elections in the USA? These questions and issues constitute the core, the essence of the coming developments, connected with the European future of Western Balkans and beyond. They are closely connected with the performance of the European Union itself and wider, in world dimension. Certainly, these negatively influence the Western Balkans countries in their expectations and European dream of integration. Dr. Shpetim Caushi Ambassador President of Institute of Diplomatic Studies Tirana, Albania November 14, 2016