National Opinion Poll: December 2018 - for Publication on 23rd December 41111511/PM 1
Introduction A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday Independent to be published on Sunday 23 rd December 2018. The topics covered included our attitudes towards, and behaviours at Christmas, along with our perceptions on the role of the TD in Ireland, and who is gaining most from the economic recovery. Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+. Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile. 920 interviews were conducted at 64 sampling points nationwide. Interviews were carried out between 1 st 13 th December 2018. Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.2%. 2
Introduction The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/ Kantar Millward Brown Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of 920 adults representative of the approximate 3.57 million adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a face-to-face basis in-home at 64 sampling points throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.2% The 920 interviews in the poll were carried out between 1 st 13 th December 2018. The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Kantar Millward Brown and The Sunday Independent. POLL Kantar Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent 2018. 3
The Results
We are shocked at the selling out of Christmas, but still splash the cash With just one full shopping day left before the madness of our consumer splurge subsides for another year (or alternatively, until the Post- Christmas sales), it is timely to understand how we feel about Christmas, and how we embrace it. This Sunday Independent/Kantar Millward Brown Poll, conducted up until last weekend, sought to quantify this. As a Nation, we are firmly of the belief that Christmas has become too commercial. 86pc of us agree with this sentiment. What is even more instructive is that we are not holding back in our views either. Three in five (60pc) strongly agree that Christmas has gotten out of hand, versus 26pc somewhat agreeing. Just four percent refute such a notion. Seemingly we are aghast at such wanton commercialism. Retailers have shoehorned us into believing that the festive season begins the day after Halloween. Black Friday has become di rigueur and signals the firing gun of our festive frenzy. There are few demographic differences most of us feel the same. The youngest age cohort, 18-24 year olds are slightly less cynical, as are Dubliners (8pc of both disagree with the sentiment). But generally, the view is pretty unanimous that Christmas is not what it used to be. We are either missing the true meaning of Christmas, or that the season has been hi-jacked in a way that is beginning to make us feel queasy. Of course, it is not a crude binary choice - the true answer more than likely lies somewhere in between. And yet, we are spending like there is no tomorrow (or more appropriately, the day after tomorrow). We are on course this year for our first Billion-euro December in terms of Grocery Spend. Our sister company, Kantar World Panel, track Grocery spend on a continuous basis, and have recently released a fascinating piece of analysis. In the four weeks on the run-up to Christmas in 2017, we, as a nation, spent 970 million on Groceries. 5
We are shocked at the selling out of Christmas, but still splash the cash (Cont d) We know that spend is currently up year-on-year, and notwithstanding food inflation, we should comfortably reach the Billion Euro watershed moment this Christmas. Given that Christmas falls on a Tuesday will also bolster spend, as consumers will have both the weekend and one extra day to continue shopping. It seems to be a case of Do as I say, but not as I Do. For some, the festive period compels us to spend money like a sailor in port; particularly apt seeing as we don t know what choppy waters lie ahead. So what are we spending our money on? This year, the average household will fork out 525 on presents, 292 on food for the household and 147 on drink for the Household. In addition, on average, we will spend 139 eating out and 131 in pubs. Of course, averages can be sometimes misleading, and mask the variances across the spectrum. For example, approximately one in four of the Irish adult population is teetotal, so this will down-weight our spend on alcohol. In terms of demographics, those aged 45-54 tend to be higher spenders in general; arguably a combination of life stage, career development and higher spending power based on having pre-boom mortgages. But the real story is regional differences, and unsurprisingly, socio-economic classifications. Dubliners are consistently the highest spenders across all categories. This is reflective of other findings in today s poll, whereby the Capital is perceived to have overwhelmingly and disproportionately benefitted from our second boom. Metropolitans will spend over twice as much as any other region in terms of buying drink for the household (267), going out to restaurants (228) and going to the pub (210). Disposable income for many in the Capital is apparently not as much an issue. 6
We are shocked at the selling out of Christmas, but still splash the cash (Cont d) As expected, festive spend correlates strongly with social class. ABs (Professionals, who tend to have higher incomes) lead the way, and spend then tapers off as you work through the different social classifications. So with all this money apparently awash this Christmas, where are we spending our money? Traditional Bricks and Mortar retailers in Ireland have consistently voiced concerns about the effect of online shopping. Looking to the UK as a portent to the future, whereby many of their traditional high street names have suffered an annus horribilis, there is a fear that the same fate is inevitable here. There is no doubt that consumer shopping behaviour is changing. The proportion of gifts bought this Christmas online is 25pc. In essence, for every three euro spent in shops, one euro is going elsewhere, and the flow is often abroad. This shift is sure to continue in one direction only, and our main street retailers will have to be both nimble and quick to counteract this threat. The generational divide in shopping behaviour is stark; the charge towards online shopping is led by the young, and the older you get, the more comfortable you are with the status quo. Either way, Christmas this year feels quite contradictory; we hanker for the traditions of the past, but are looking towards the future. 7
A Focus on Christmas
How much is spent over Christmas? Claimed expenditure overall is over 1,200, with Alcohol accounting for 278, Presents 525 and Food 431 Base: All Aged 18+ 292 147 525 139 131 Food for the Household Drink for the Household Presents for the Household Going to Restaurants etc. over the Christmas period Going to Pubs over the Christmas period Q12 How much do you think your household will spend on the following over the Christmas period? 9
How much is spent over Christmas? The Detail Base: All Aged 18+ Gender Age Average Males Females 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Food for Household 292 300 285 306 253 329 316 296 255 Drink for Household 147 164 132 162 148 136 164 149 132 Presents for Household 525 485 561 531 627 573 583 479 351 Going to Restaurants 139 145 134 128 142 122 165 146 128 Going to Pubs 131 143 119 155 135 120 163 115 102 Q12 How much do you think your household will spend on the following over the Christmas period? 10
How much is spent over Christmas? The Detail Base: All Aged 18+ Average AB Social Class C1 C2 DE F Dublin Leinster Region Munster Conn/ Ulster Food for Household 292 411 303 269 235 347 369 243 236 314 Drink for Household 147 180 161 133 131 147 247 110 95 107 Presents for Household 525 678 621 513 406 393 638 408 547 480 Going to Restaurants 139 177 168 121 108 146 228 106 93 104 Going to Pubs 131 134 138 123 123 150 210 91 98 98 Q12 How much do you think your household will spend on the following over the Christmas period? 11
How is online shopping affecting Bricks & Mortar shops? One in four euro is spent on online shopping Base: All Aged 18+ Higher Among % 18-24 38 25-34 41 35-44 31 ABC1s 32 Goods bought online 25% 75% Goods bought in shops Higher Among % 55-64 84 65+ 93 DEs 84 Farming Community 85 Leinster 79 Q.13 What proportion of the gifts/presents you buy this year will be bought online, and what proportion will be bought in the shops? 12
Has Christmas become too commercial? Absolutely! Base: All Aged 18+ Christmas has become too commercial Higher Among % Any Disagree Any Agree 18-24 8 Dublin Residents 8 Neither Agree/ Disagree/ No opinion Strongly Disagree 1% Somewhat Disagree 3% 4% 9% 86% Strongly Agree 60% Somewhat Agree 26% Higher Among % 45-54 91 65+ 90 Leinster Residents 94 Munster Residents 92 Q.14 How strongly do you agree with the following statement Christmas has become too commercial 13
Who is benefitting most/least from the economic recovery? Dublin is the clear winner in terms of benefitting from the recovery Base: All Aged 18+ Most Least Dublin % Leinster % Munster % Conn/ Ulster % Dublin % Leinster % Munster % Conn/ Ulster % Dublin 84% 92 78 84 83 Dublin 3% 3 6 2 1 Leinster 4% 3 5 4 5 Leinster 10% 12 22 2 2 Munster 1% 1 1 2 1 Munster 20% 19 3 49 1 Connaught - - - - - Connaught 27% 27 26 15 50 Ulster * * 1-1 Ulster 13% 17 7 8 24 Conn/Ulster 41% 44 34 23 74 Q11b Which region do you think is benefitting the most from the economic recovery? Q11c Which region do you think is benefitting the least from the economic recovery? 14
Is the economy more or less regionally balanced? Broad agreement that the economy is skewed towards certain regions Base: All Aged 18+ Higher Among % Males 60 45-54 59 ABs 64 Farming Community 64 Conn/Ulster Residents 72 Rural Residents 60 Independents/Others 66 Fine Gael Supporters 62 Less Regionally balanced 55% 32% More Regionally Balanced Higher Among % Leinster Residents 40 Labour Supporters* 41 Fianna Fáil Supporters 61 14% Don t know/ No opinion ( ) = Aug 2018 Results Q.11a Turning now to the economy, do you think the Irish economic recovery is becoming more or less regionally balanced? 15
What is the role of TDs?
The role of TD s Local or National? Parish Pump Politics is alive and kicking for some Base: All Aged 18+ Higher Among % 35-44 34 ABs 36 Dublin Residents 34 Leinster Residents 33 Urban Residents 32 Fine Gael Supporters 34 Labour Supporters 41 Primary National Issues 27% 34% Primary Local Issues Higher Among % 55-64 40 DEs 40 Farming Community 44 Rural Residents 41 Munster Residents 39 Sinn Féin Supporters 49 Independents/Other 42 35% Don t know *Small base size Q.8c Do you think that the role of TDs is to primarily solve local issues or national issues? 17
For further details contact: Paul Moran Paul.moran@kantarmillwardbrown.com 087 286 0773 Kantar Millward Brown 6 Ely Place, Dublin 2 T. +353 (1) 297 4500 41111511/PM 18