NATIONAL ANGUS REID POLL THE FEDERAL POLITICAL SCENE AND THE PUBLIC AGENDA Angus Reid Group, Inc. Public Release Date: February 14, 1998 12:30AM EST This National Angus Reid Poll was conducted by telephone between January 21 st and 26 th, 1998 among a representative cross-section of 1,524 Canadian adults. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1991 and 1996 Census data. With a national sample of 1,500, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +2.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other subgroupings of the survey population.
Page 2 THE FEDERAL POLITICAL SCENE AND THE PUBLIC AGENDA The latest National Angus Reid Poll, conducted between January 21 st and 26 th among 1,524 Canadians, looked at the popularity of the federal parties and their leaders, as well as the public s policy priorities. The highlights include: THE FEDERAL POLITICAL SCENE Party Support As Parliament resumes sitting and prepares for the presentation of the 1998/99 federal budget, public support for the five federal political parties remains virtually unchanged from National Angus Reid Polls conducted over the past couple of months. This January sounding shows the Chrétien Liberals holding 47 percent of the decided vote nationally. While unchanged from poll results for the last three months of 1997, this is up significantly from the 38 percent of the popular vote they received in last June s election. The Reform Party continues to sit second at 16 percent (versus 19% on election day), with the PCs close behind at 15 percent (also versus 19%). The NDP is at 10 percent (versus 11% on election day) and the Bloc Quebecois also holds 10 percent nationally (41% in Quebec). (see Table 1) A total of 9 percent of Canadians polled were undecided/refused or said they would not vote in a federal election, a figure that was 14 percent before a follow-up leaning question was asked. The regional results show: In B.C., the Reform Party holds a slight lead over the Liberals (39% to 36%). Reform just edges out the Liberals in Alberta (41% versus 37%), but their support continues a downward trend since the 1997 election (54% versus for 24% for the Liberals last June). The Liberals have moved up to 45 percent in Manitoba/Saskatchewan, widening their lead over the Reform (24%) and NDP (18%).
Page 3 The Liberals continue to enjoy strong support in Ontario (57%), while the PCs (17%), Reform (15%) and NDP (11%) compete for a very distant second place. In Quebec, the BQ (41%) and Liberals (39%) remain in a dead heat, while the Charest Conservatives have slipped to 14 percent (from 22% in the election). Finally, in Atlantic Canada, Liberal support is up at 57 percent, up significantly from last November (46%) and last June (33%). The PCs hold second place (25%), while the NDP has slipped to 14 percent after their electoral breakthrough in the region last June (23% on election day). (Table 1) Party Leaders Support This latest Angus Reid Poll also gauged the party leaders performance ratings: (Table 2) Voters approve of Mr. Chrétien s performance as Prime Minister by more than a 2 to 1 margin: 67 percent approve versus 29 percent disapprove. This is up from a 52 percent approval rating during the election campaign, but is still short of the 71 percent versus 18 percent approval margin that Mr. Chrétien enjoyed early in his first mandate. In Manitoba/Saskatchewan, Ontario and Atlantic Canada, his approval ratings are even higher (nearly a 4 to 1 margin), while in his home province of Quebec, the margin of approval is much narrower (51% vs 41%). Mr. Charest is the only other federal leader whose performance receives the approval of a majority of voters nation-wide: 52 percent approval versus 30 percent approval disapproved. This represents a slight decline since the federal election campaign (59% approved). Atlantic Canadians and Quebecers approve of his performance by a 2 to 1 margin, while British Columbians are the least enthusiastic about Mr. Charest (41% approve versus 33% disapprove). NDP leader Alexa McDonough receives the approval of 40 percent of surveyed Canadians versus 26 percent disapprove and 34 percent who are unsure. This is better than the split verdict she received in the campaign. Public approval of Ms. McDonough s performance is highest in Atlantic Canada (63%), where she hails from, and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (53%).
Page 4 Public approval of Preston Manning, the leader of the Official Opposition Reform Party, now stands at 38 percent versus 47 percent disapproval. In the election campaign, this margin was worse (31% vs 58% disapproval). Mr. Manning enjoys majority approval in Western Canada, especially Alberta (64% vs 30%). His strongest supporters are in Alberta and British Columbia where voters approve of his performance by a 2 to 1 margin. Mr. Manning s approval rating is lowest in Quebec (13% vs 63%) but the margin is also negative in Ontario (40% vs 47%) and across the Atlantic region (37% vs 48%). Bloc Québecois leader Gilles Duceppe receives the approval of 36 percent of Québecers while 45 percent disapprove, down from 57 percent disapproval last May. THE PUBLIC AGENDA This late-january poll also included the Angus Reid Group s ongoing monitor of Canadians public policy priorities by asking those surveyed to name, top-of-mind, the most important issues facing Canada today. Issues highest on the public agenda include: (Table 3) Jobs/Unemployment was cited top-of-mind by 35 percent of Canadians polled as a key issue facing Canada today. While still number one on the agenda, this issue continues a downward trend since last May, when six in ten (60%) Canadians cited jobs as a critical national issue. Unaided mentions are highest in Atlantic Canada (55%) and lowest on the prairies. National unity/québec/constitution remains a close second on the public agenda, named by 33 percent of those polled in January. This issue has also receded in recent months (down from 45% last September). Québec (27%) trails the other regions in citing this issue as a priority. The economy in general ranks third with mentions totalling 22 percent nationally (up at 30% in Québec).
Page 5 The deficit/debt was singled out by 18 percent of those polled. Mentions were highest in British Columbia (24%) and Alberta (22%) and by far lowest in Atlantic Canada (9%). A gender gap persists on this issue (23% men versus 13% women) and levels of concern also increase with affluence (23% among higher income respondents versus 15 percent among those of more modest means). Health care was named by 17 percent of Canadians as a critical issue for the country today, with the residents of Manitoba/Saskatchewan (29%) ahead of all other regions. There continues to be a strong gender gap on health care with unaided concern among women (22%) nearly double that among men (13%). Education was cited by 11 percent, with concern again higher among women than men (14% vs 8%). Poverty/homelessness was mentioned by 7 percent of surveyed Canadians as a major issue facing the country. The ice storm which knocked out power in much of Québec and parts of Ontario and the Atlantic provinces was also cited by 7 percent of Canadians as a pressing priority. The environment was cited by 6 percent of those polled. Despite Canada s participation in the Kyoto agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, signed last December, mentions remain virtually unchanged from last year. Taxes were singled out by 6 percent as well. The value of the Canadian dollar, which has fallen to record lows recently, was mentioned by 5 percent as a key issue facing the country, up from negligible levels in earlier soundings. Five percent also highlighted other social services as needing utmost attention right now.
Page 6 Crime and justice issues were cited by 5 percent. A number of other issues were highlighted by smaller numbers of respondents, including: trade (3%); immigration/refugees (3%); government/politics (3%); aboriginal issues (3%); and others mentioned by still fewer respondents. For more information on this news release, please contact: Dr. Darrell Bricker Executive Vice- President Angus Reid Group (613) 241-5802 Bob Richardson Senior Vice-President Angus Reid Group (416) 324-2900 Daniel Savas Vice-President Angus Reid Group (604 (257-3200 Christian Bourque Directeur senior de la Recherche Groupe Angus Reid (514) 877-5550 Visit our website at www.angusreid.com 3 0