KHALID MALIK, DIRECTOR HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT OFFICE 14 March 2013
RISE OF THE SOUTH: TECTONIC SHIFTS EXPANSION OF HUMAN CAPABILITIES AND CHOICES
% Share of world output (PPP) GLOBAL REBALANCING 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1820 1845 1870 1895 1920 1945 1970 1995 2050 Brazil, India, China Germany, France, Italy, UK, US, Canada A CHANGING WORLD
% share of world merchandise trade REALIGNMENT OF WORLD TRADE 60 50 40 30 20 South-South North-North 10 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 A CHANGING WORLD
HDI 2012 RAPID HUMAN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GLOBE 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 Korea, Rep. Chile Brazil Mexico Malaysia Mauritius Thailand Turkey Tunisia China Indonesia Viet Nam India Ghana Lao PDR Bangladesh Uganda Rwanda 0.2 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 HDI 1990 A CHANGING WORLD
MUCH HUMAN PROGRESS, PARTICULARLY IN LOW HDI COUNTRIES Average annual HDI growth rate, 2000-12 HDI spread highest vs. lowest 1.80 1 Norway 1.60 0.9 1.40 Bahrain 1.20 0.8 Croatia Tonga 1.00 0.7 Tunisia 0.80 0.6 Congo 0.60 0.5 Swaziland 0.40 0.20 0.4 0.00 Very high HDI High HDI Medium HDI Low HDI 0.3 Very high HDI High HDI Medium HDI Low HDI Niger
MASSIVE EXPANSION OF THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS 1990 (1.8 billion) 2020 (3.2 billion) 2030 (4.9 billion) Europe and North America Asia-Pacific Central and South America Rest of the World A CHANGING WORLD
Internet users (millions) INTERNET CONNECTIVITY 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 South North
Why have some countries done better than others? What can we learn from them? What are the common drivers?
PROACTIVE DEVELOPMENTAL STATES 1 Commitment to long-term human development 2 Actively promoting job creation 3 Enhancing public investment in health and education 4 Nurturing industrial capacities DRIVERS
TAPPING GLOBAL MARKETS 1 Investment in people to make the best of trade opportunities 2 Investing in infrastructure to facilitate market access 3 Expanding into nontraditional markets DRIVERS
SOCIAL POLICY INNOVATIONS 1 Expanding TURKEY Health care for all and targeting the poor 2 BRAZIL education access by equalizing funds across regions and municipalities 3 MEXICO Poverty reduction through innovative cash transfer programmes 4 Extending INDIA development benefits to the broader society key to accelerating progress DRIVERS
How can we sustain human development for the generations to come?
PROMOTING EQUITY, VOICE AND ACCOUNTABILITY 1 Countries with less 2 inequality do better and improve more in human development Women s education is essential to reduce gender inequality 3 Educated, interconnected youth demand greater accountability 4 Participation and inclusion essential to stability and social cohesion SUSTAINING MOMENTUM
CONFRONTING ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES SUSTAINING MOMENTUM
COST OF INACTION: POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ON POVERTY
IS DEMOGRAPHY DESTINY? 1 Education is key to reduce fertility rates 2 Skills formation and productivity gains can help cope with a rapidly aging population 3 To reap a demographic dividend and benefit from youth bulge, job creation should have priority SUSTAINING MOMENTUM
THE RISE OF THE SOUTH Governance for a changed world Opportunities for new development partnerships
REDESIGN FOR A NEW ERA 1 MORE 3 COHERENT PLURALISM Rise in regional institutions and finance mechanisms 2 GLOBAL GOVERNANCE For fair representation and shared responsibility, 20 th century institutions must adapt to 21 st century realities SPACE FOR NON STATE ACTORS Citizen networks and social media can promote new norms to reinforce accountability of both state and private actors IMPLICATIONS
NEW INSTITUTIONS, NEW MECHANISMS Infrastructure development banks New institutions can facilitate regional integration and South- South relationships $6.84 trillion A new South Commission $3.36 trillion IMPLICATIONS
PRIORITIES FOR A NEW ERA Rising economic strength must be matched by a full commitment to human development LDCs can learn and benefit from the success of emerging economies Greater representation for the South and CSOs can accelerate progress on major global challenges In a more connected world, the South continues to need the North and increasingly the North now needs the South as well